"2004 ANALYSIS - Part 5: 20th Century Fox"

2004 has now and truly closed and we are already in the heat of the 2005 madness, but which films dominated last year? Which did bigger than expected? Which totally tanked? Here is a guide to 2004's Hits and Misses at the Australian box-office.

2004 was surprisingly quieter than recent years. 21 films crossed the $10m mark while 12 films went past the $15m milestone. That represents a downward spiral from 2003, which netted 23 $10m winners and 14 that achieved past $15m. In 2002, 24 films earned $10m and over with 12 films past $15m. In 2001, 28 films reached $10m, 13 of which also passed $15m. Take into account, these three years also were the years that 'Lord of the Rings' achieved massive feats. All up, in 2004 286 films opened in some capacity in Australian cinemas, down from 293 in 2003 but up from 257 released in 2002.

For the next week, we will present a guide to each Australian distributor's success in 2004 followed by a recap of the Best and the Worst B.O results from the year. This will give everyone a wrap-up at the Australian B.O in 2004. Here is Fox Australia.

20th Century Fox
Distributors for: 20th Century Fox; Fox Searchlight Pictures; Regency Enterprises; Metro Goldwyn Mayer and United Artists Pictures
Estimated Total for 2004: $96m


Twentieth Century Fox could have had a better year at the B.O, but thanks to a string of hits, they do too badly either. It didn't help that MGM was in yet another awful year and had no hits for release leaving it up to Fox output to keep the year thriving. In the US, Fox recorded one of their best years to date but did it translate here? Although 'The Day After Tomorrow' and 'I, Robot' were powerful and 'Garfield' and 'Cheaper by the Dozen' were equally smashing; 'Dodgeball' didn't do as big as it should have and there were too many smaller films that simply died horrendously. Even with Fox Searchlight recording one of their best years, Fox Australia didn't have the rights to two of the bigger hits ('Napoleon Dynamite', 'Garden State') and films like 'I Heart Huckabees' didn't click with its audience. Overall, Fox did strong but could have had a better year with some of their titles. All up, Fox released 29 films in 2004, 3 which earned over $10m and 8 which passed the $5m milestone.

The Top Dog: End-of-the-world epic 'The Day After Tomorrow' was a stand-out with a thrilling $20.1m after a $6.6m smashing debut. It became the seventeenth best opening ever; Fox's third best ever; seventh best of 2004 overall and #57 on the all-time stats. Fox's marketing on the picture was outstanding and it hit its audience with full-force and the results met the hype.

Winners and Grinners: The second strongest hit was not a surprise, Will Smith's action smash 'I, Robot' with $13.1m after a brawny $4.6m opening in July. It finished off as Smith's fifth biggest hit in Australia and benefited from weak competition in the winter season. Fox also got a tremendous response from 'Garfield', which did a surprising $10.2m in September outgunning its rivals. That came as a big surprise since bootlegged copies of the film were very evident in the Australian market but it even surpassed Fox's own 'Dodgeball', which did a very powerful $9.5m, but seemed to not perform as highly as its US run or Stiller's previous hits. Fox's strategy of releasing four films in September worked only partially and 'Dodgeball' was seen as a tiny disappointing considering the hype for the comedy. The other massive hit was Steve Martin's family comedy 'Cheaper by the Dozen' with $9.5m, which ruled the January marketplace with its appeal to the family audience.

Other strong hits were three generic titles: the prequel 'Alien Vs. Predator' did $6.1m, which was about as good as Fox would have hoped since these films rarely have power in Australia. Denzel Washington's 'Man on Fire' ($5.6m) was a coup since the Oscar winning actor has very limited power here and the film ranked as his fifth best to date. Fox also would have been very happy with 'Stuck on You', which was a bomb in the US but the Matt Damon-Greg Kinnear comedy did a solid $5.5m.

In the world of the indies, Fox Searchlight outlay and one MGM hit did the best. Kevin Kline's drama 'De Lovely' did the strongest with a solid $1.2m over November while Oscar winning drama 'In America' ($0.85k) and barely 'I Heart Huckabees' ($0.83k) were solid performers. Holly Hunter drama 'Thirteen' ($0.46k) could have done better but it still did decent enough.



Losers: Sadly, the list is very extensive for Fox in 2004. In the higher end of the list were Queen Latifah comedy 'Taxi' ($2.5m), which was a very hard sell here to begin with and its US performance was equally shaky. Three MGM releases followed as the studio's output this year was simply atrocious. The Rock's 'Walking Tall' takes the honour of their best result but its $2.3m gross was met with major disagreement since his previous film 'Welcome to the Jungle' was a surprise smash and the actor even came down to Australia to promote the film. Two unnecessary sequels followed with dismal results: 'Agent Cody Banks II' ($2.1m) and 'Jeepers Creepers 2' ($1.7m), though at least the distributor got something from them. Surprisingly, Denzel Washington's action-thriller 'Out of Time' was severely out of box-office hope with just $1.3m in January, which has to hurt.

The losses continued in the under $1m range: teen comedy 'The Girl Next Door' ($0.92k) led the pack and did better than some other films of the genre if barely while Bruce Willis' mess 'The Whole Ten Yards' ($0.94k) was one of the more notable bombs of the year. Things get worse though as Fox released a swag of clunkers that didn't even get out of their first weekends in tact, a victim of zero advertising. They included: Heath Ledger's 'The Order' ($0.091k), Josh Hartnett thriller 'Wicker Park' ($0.074k), Gene Hackman comedy 'Welcome to Mooseport' ($0.066k), comedy 'Club Dread' ($0.053k), Ice Cube sequel 'Barbershop 2' ($0.0052k) and kid's flick 'Catch That Kid' ($0.048k). Also dead was 2002 hit 'Drumline', which did just $1,676 in February and ranks as the lowest grossing film released by any distributor in 2004 outside of very indie company Madman. Fox Searchlight indies 'The Dreamers' ($0.21k) and Robert Redford's 'The Clearing' ($0.0053k) were also a bust.

Lessons Learnt: The distributor needs to find a way to get their smaller films to at least find some traction. The list of losses this year was quite exhaustive. Films like 'Barbershop 2' may have limited playing appeal here, but the film's have a cult DVD following so they could exploit that. They could also try harder in their advertising and a film like 'Out of Time' shouldn't have bombed so badly, one week after the abysmal 'Torque' did stronger and both were competing for the same audience. They also need to consider releasing films so closely in proximity, which may have affected 'Dodgeball' since it was competing against 'Garfield' then 'Alien Vs Predator' in such closeness.

On the Horizon in 2005: It should be a healthy year and the added bonus is that MGM is back alive in 2005 after sitting in hibernation last year. Fox is already on a roll with a strong performance by 'Elektra' despite its US performance being lacklustre. Fox's big hopes for the year include: Brad Pitt/Angelina Jolie comedy-action 'Mr. and Mrs. Smith', comic book adaptation 'The Fantastic Four', animated comedy 'Robots', Robert De Niro thriller 'Hide and Seek', Orlando Bloom epic 'Kingdom of Heaven' and of course, 'Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith' out in May. MGM's output includes John Travolta sequel 'Be Cool', remake of 'The Amityville Horror' and Steve Martin's 'The Pink Panther'. There's also movies with Paul Walker, Jessica Alba, Martin Lawrence, Drew Barrymore, Cameron Diaz and Reese Witherspoon not to mention Oscar darlings like 'Sideways', 'Kinsey' and 'Hotel Rwanda'. Promises to be a good year.

By Chris Cappola

Please Note that Distributor totals are estimates and not exact data but are rounded off


OTHER DISTRIBUTOR ANALYSIS:
- Analysis of 20th Century Fox
- Analysis of Buena Vista International
- Analysis of Columbia TriStar Distributors
- Analysis of United International Pictures
- Analysis of Village Roadshow Distributors
- Analysis of the Indies! - Icon, Hoyts and more!

- The 2004 Chart

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