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Weekend 1st - 4th January 2004
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Although it had a handicap last weekend of opening on an unusually shortened three day-weekend, The Lord of the Rings:
The Return of the King was able to use the New Year public holiday to its absolute advantage over the weekend. With
the first day of the year 2004 falling on a Thursday, the public holiday amplified business into a weekend already buoyed
by the general school holiday period to deliver the second busiest weekend of all time in Australia in terms of total
cinema traffic. In doing so, The Return of the King collected the largest
second-weekend of all time in Australia as the final installment of the J.R.R. Tolkien saga drew in a mammoth $7.68
million. Off a very acceptable 40% from its debut, King's fall equals the 40% dip of the first film, but importantly
marks a large improvement on the 56% decline that Towers saw.
Still playing on 453 screens and averaging $16,967 per theatre, The Return of the King's second weekend average
counts as the second best second weekend average behind only the 1999 holiday weekend of The Phantom Menace when it
collected $20,358. In perspective and advantage to Menace, it's second weekend was a five day frame, which explains
why until this weekend it had comfortably held the record of the best second weekend. Last year The Two Towers
would have passed Menace's four day second weekend, but it's $7.59 million holiday take held strong.
With a current total of $26.67 million, The Return of the King passed the $20 million mark on Thursday, the first
day of its second weekend, co-incidentally enough the very same day both Fellowship and Towers passed it.
The difference is that Fellowship was released on a Wednesday and achieved it in nine days. Towers was
released on a Thursday and did it in eight days. King as we know was released on the Friday, which means it crossed
the $20 million mark during its seventh day of play. After weekend two Fellowship had collected a hot $24.1 million
after 12 days, Towers had made $25.84 million after 11 days. With the help of its record second-weekend, King
has totaled an all-conquering $26.67 million in just 10 days, already placing it in position 24 on the Australian
All-Time chart.
In perspective to some other non-Rings films, Attack of The Clones had collected $20.85 million in 11 days,
and still only had $25.67 million after 18 days. The Matrix Reloaded is the only other major release to have been
restricted to a three-day weekend, and like The Return of the King it shared immense fan anticipation and a record
opening weekend which still more than rivals all regular four-day weekends. Compared to Reloaded, King is
tracking 29.6% ahead, up from an opening that was 13.7% better. Reloaded was off a slightly higher 46% in its
second weekend, although the real difference shows in the mid-week figures. The Return of the King collected $6.25
million in the three days Monday to Wednesday, 80.6% better than Reloaded's $3.46 million through the corresponding
period.
Statistically the $6.25 million for King's mid-week was 13.6% better than Towers' $5.50 million and 43.0%
better the Fellowship's $4.37 million. Keep in mind that both Fellowship and Towers had the advantage
in these figures of having the New-Years public-holiday fall in this mid-week area, although King was still able to
achieve better figures. The second weekend of King was 23.4% better than Towers' $6.22 million and 30.8%
better than Fellowship's $5.87 million. All-up, King is tracking 3.1% ahead of Towers, up from opening
9.8% behind. King is tracking 10.5% ahead of Fellowship up from opening 8.2% behind - and that is with one
less day play against film two and two less days of play against film one.
Compared to the U.S. pace, The Return of the King in Australia is tracking a very swell 20% ahead* after a
comparative two weekends. This is up from the the small 3% lead* it had after each countries respective debuts. Rewinding
one year, The Two Towers was a similar 29% ahead after two weeks, down after opening 38% better. Two years ago
The Fellowship of the Ring was 56% ahead* after two weeks down from a 107% better* opening. This marks King
as the only one of the three to extend its lead* over the U.S. after weekend two, good considering King is tracking
well ahead of the first two films in the U.S. Looking at the mid-week session, King was 32% better* in Australia
from Monday to Wednesday/Thursday. The second weekend itself was a positive 52% better* in Australia.
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Third helpings seemed to be the order of the week, with Spy Kids 3D: Game Over completing a very respectable second
place launch over the weekend. First launching in 2001, Spy Kids' success quickly spawned a 2003 sequel that did
even better than the first in Australia, which brings us to entry number three. Opening with $2.90 million, Game
Over sees the major cast of Antonio Banderas, Carla Gugino, Alexa Vega and Daryl Sabara and series creator Rodriguez
returned to tell the next chapter in the lives of agents Carmen and Juni. Battling it out inside a video game against the
evil Toymaker, played by Sylvester Stallone, who has created a game that's poised to take over the world's children, its
up to Juni to come out of retirement to save his sister. Opening on a very wide 283 screens, the BVI/Miramax release
managed a fine $10,274 per theatre.
The holiday period through 2003/2004 has seen little in the way of major family films doing stand-out business. In
2001/2002 we saw Potter and Monsters doing good work, nothing else even got a look in. Through 2002/2003
Harry was back with a soft show by Treasure Planet and a supporting role by Spy Kids 2. This year
finds five family films dueling it out, which may explain why none have yet bothered the $10 million mark. Each of
Peter Pan, Brother Bear, Elf and Looney Tunes have ranged from surprising to good to
disappointing, while the opening of Spy Kids 3 finally sees a family film doing some decent business.
Last year, although a week later on Jan 9th, Spy Kids 2 opened with a great $1.9 million. The opening of Spy Kids
3 comes in a great 52.9% better than the second film, while the opening is non-comparable to the $404K opening of the
first film which went on to expand. With an opening so strong out of the gates its probably a certainty that Spy Kids
3 will pass both the $6.79 million of Spy Kids and the $7.81 million of Spy Kids 2. Spy Kids 3
has been launched with an extra week of holiday play than Spy Kids 2 had, and already looks assured of being the
most successful family oriented film these holidays. Although it probably won't have the same holding power, the opening
is very similar to the $2.87 million launch of Stuart Little. Such expectations may not be inappropriate however
with the film opening so well, in fact, there has only been one family to launch with over $2 million and not make it to
at least $10 million, and that was the fast burning Pokemon movie. Most have gone on to collect over $15 million.
Last year the second film dipped an ok 36% in its second weekend, but given that Spy Kids 3's opening sits on the
New Years weekend, it may be looking at a higher drop-off unless word-of-mouth is exceptional.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Spy Kids 3D: Game Over's Australian opening comes in a low 13% behind* what was also a
series-besting bow in the U.S. This is a small change on last year when Spy Kids 2 opened 14% better* in Australia.
Comparing final totals, the original Spy Kids finished 41% behind* in Australia while the second entry finished
a closer 9% behind*. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Spy Kids 3 was not too far away from my $2.5 million
prediction.
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While a number of films in the charts claimed a rise in takings over the weekend - and not to take anything away from them
- most of them collected under half a million, with Love Actually arguably taking performer of the weekend honours.
Off a very slim 5% from a strong opening, the all-star Brit comedy about inter-connected stories during the period leading
up to Christmas added a further $2.84 million to its name, only narrowly missing out retaining second position. The UIP
Universal hit has now seen its total climb to a very healthy $9.64 million including its two weekends of preview
screenings. Love Actually will be the last release of 2003 to cross the $10 million
mark to bring the count up to 23, one less than last year and four less than 2001.
After two weeks, including all previews, Love Actually is tracking 7.2% behind where Bridget Jones's Diary
was after two weeks, an improvement over last weekend when it closed 18.1% behind. The Renee Zellweger picture was off a by
a slightly higher 25% through its second weekend. After two weeks Love Actually is also running close to where
Notting Hill was, now only 4.3% behind. The Julia Roberts flick was off by a large 52% through its second weekend,
with Love Actually scoring such a solid hold, things look positive at this stage for the film eventually joining
Hill and Bridget in the $20 million club. Competition this weekend will be a factor with Something's
Gotta Give hoping to draw an audience from the same market.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Love Actually is tracking 412% ahead* in Australia after two weeks, down from the huge
612% lead* it has last weekend. The huge lead not only reflects what is a great pace of the film in Australia, in its own
right far ahead of the U.S., but also counts in the film's previews. Compared to the U.K. pace where it was off by 30% in
its second weekend after a record-breaking debut, Love Actually is now tracking 20% behind^. Out from the 9% weaker^
debut, Love Actually, as was seen with both Hill and Bridget, will be unable to match what are
all-time best qualifying results in the U.K.
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Re-naming a film for an Australian release has become a common theme over the last few years. This time around it may
actually have not only helped the film financially, but it arguably suits the film more so than its original title.
Welcome to the Jungle, known as The Rundown in the U.S., was the second film of the weekend's three new
releases to enter the top five, enjoying a very solid number four launch. Opening with a cool $2.18 million, Jungle
stars The Rock and Sean William Scott and follows Beck, who travels to Brazil to track down and bring back a mobster's son
in order to square off a debt. Welcome to the Jungle opened on a medium-low 143 screens, and in what probably comes
as a surprise to Columbia/Tristar, averaged a sensational $15,285 per theatre, the second best on the charts outside of
IMAX and behind King.
The opening strength of Welcome to the Jungle is certainly surprising, especially considering the competition at the
moment. The charts won't be easing up this coming weekend, so the question is how long can it sustain that strength? The
opening weekend for Welcome to the Jungle is similar to 2002's Red Dragon, which despite an ok opening
showed only satisfactory holds to end up with $7.62 million. 2001's A Knight's Tale opened with $2.23 million and
went on to collect $8.92 million after some positive word. Welcome to the Jungle has a good chance to more than
match Dragon given its holiday setting, but needs to hold well to reach catch Ledger's Tale.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Welcome to the Jungle's Australian opening comes in a 18% better* than what The
Rundown scored through its number one September launch. Rundown was a consistent performer in the U.S., although
its consistency was only average, falling by a regular 47% or so through its first four weekends. It did go on to collect
a decent total, although maybe not as much as its Australian distributor had been hoping for, as a film re-name usually
indicates uncertainly and desperation to do whatever can be done to re-invent the film for a new audience. Would it have
performed the same had it not been titled Welcome to the Jungle?
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Opening in fifth position was the Nicole Kidman and Jude Law drama Cold Mountain. The Anthony Minghella directed pic
in which a civil war soldier undertakes a dangerous journey to return home to his love during the dying days of the Civil
War opened with an ok $1.85 million. Of the three new films opening this weekend, it was certainly Cold Mountain
that had the most star power and magazine coverage leading up to release, but that failed to covert into real audience
appeal. Opening on 194 screens, Cold Mountain collected $9,572 per theatre, good, although more would have been
expected from the film considering it has been rumored for Oscar contention.
Other adult-oriented dramas - such as Master and Commander with fellow Australian Russell Crowe - may have dampened
some of the immediate interest for Cold Mountain. The film has been holding well in the U.S. with it scoring the
lowest decline of the four wide Christmas releases, so that's positive news for the film in Australia. The opening for
Cold Mountain was certainly up on Law's last war film Enemy At The Gates which opened with a soft $0.75
million in July 2001, but is very similar to the $1.85 million of 2000's The Talented Mr Ripley which went on to
collect $7.15 million. Cold Mountain's launch is up on the $1.32 million of Kidman's The Hours which finished
with $7.1 million, but down on the $2.56 million of The Other which closed with a better $10.73 million.
Compared to the U.S. opening, the launch for Cold Mountain comes in a very slight 3% weaker* in Australia. As in the
U.S., the film launched against both ample new and existing competition over a period of unusual chart strength. It's
number five launch in Australia is two notches lower than its number three launch it enjoyed in the U.S. Nicole Kidman
films always proven to have better holding power in Australia, although with the films highly American theme, it may not be
the case for Cold Mountain. Compared to my weekend forecast, the opening of Cold Mountain comes in very close
to my $1.6 million opening prediction.
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The top 20 films collected a massive $22.56 million over the weekend, up 2.4% from last weekend - thank in large part to
the New Years holiday falling on the Thursday portion of the official weekend frame - and up 14.8% on this weekend from
last year when the top 20 was again Rings dominated with Towers collecting $6.22 million in its second frame
and the romantic comedy Two Weeks Notice bowing in second with a great $3.84 million. The weekend was up 25.4% on
this weekend two years ago when Fellowship collected $5.87 million in its second weekend, ahead of Monsters,
Inc.'s $3.24 million in second. Despite their successes, the Rings films have each lost their chart leadership
positions after two weeks, the dollar may be spread around thinly enough this weekend to give King a shot of making
it three.
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Weekend Coming 1st - 4th January 2004
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Two new films vie for the comedy dollar this coming weekend and both have potential to do very well. Something's Gotta
Give faces of with Cheaper By The Dozen this weekend, with both having eyes of replacing Return of the
King at number one. Given the track record between both Steve Martin and Jack Nicholson, it's not difficult to see that
the latter has shown more consistency in the Australian market. Also starring Diane Keaton, Keanu Reeves and Frances
McDormand and directed by Nancy Meyers (What Women Want, The Parent Trap), Something's Gotta Give packs
a whole lot more star-power than it's competitor does. The film follows Harry, a wealthy music executive with a fondness
for younger women. While visiting the home of Erica, his new young girlfriend's mother, Harry has a heart-attack and is
left in the care of both Erica and Julian, his doctor. During which both Harry and Julian develop an attraction to Erica,
and so begins the love-triangle.
Something's Gotta Give opened in the U.S. in mid-December with a very good $US16.1 million. The film has shown very
good holding power through the generous Christmas and New Year's period despite direct competition from non other than
a rampaging Cheaper By The Dozen. Having collected $US82 million after four weeks, Something's Gotta Give
will join three, possibly four other films from the November/December release period and cross $US100 million by
mid-January. This will deliver Nicholson his seventh film to cross the $US100 million in the U.S., on the heels of last
years success with Anger Management which collected $US135.6 million. Before that the last film to do that was
1997's Oscar winner As Good As It Gets. Although last year Nicholson did well in drama with his $US64 million film
About Schmidt, comedy has once again proven to be his strongest suit.
So how will it perform in Australia against Steve Martin's new entry? Great holding power for Something's Gotta Give
in the U.S. bodes well for both initial and lengthy success locally. In the U.S., Something's Gotta Give has been
out-gunned by Cheaper By The Dozen, so what's to say it won't happen in Australia as well? Looking at Nicholson's
track record, As Good As It Gets collected a very solid $18.72 million in Australia, some 26% better* than what
it ended up with in the U.S. Something's Gotta Give has shown similar characteristics to As Good in its U.S.
performance, and there is no reason why it won't do that same in Australia. Something's Gotta Give is essentially a
comedy for an older audience, and as such, puts it in the same category as Love Actually which is showing heat of
its own. The question as to which new entry has the least direct competition from existing fare is a difficult one. Adult
fare such as Cold Mountain, Love Actually and the omni-present King present a challenge for
Something's Gotta Give to stand-out. Jack and Diane could together reach second or third place with $2.6
million this weekend.
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Cheaper By The Dozen isn't launching in Australia on the heels of a blistering U.S. run just to lay down quietly
now and let Something's Gotta Give take this weekend's highest opening honours easily. The Steve Martin film also
features Bonnie Hunt, Hilary Duff and has a cameo by Ashton Kutcher to help sell itself to audiences. As a re-make of the
1950's film of the same name, Cheaper By The Dozen has been directed by Shawn Levy (Just Married) and deals
with the story of a football coach with 12 kids who moves his family to a new home town for his convenience, and as such
has to contend with the repercussions of the move of which all the children deride him for.
The Fox film opened in the U.S. two weekends ago with a sensational $US27.5 million against the second weekend of Return
of the King. Produced for a moderate $US40 million, the film has collected a mighty $US86.9 million in two weeks.
Martin scored pay-dirt in March with the $US31.1 million opening of Bringing Down The House, his first hit since
1999's Bowfinger and his first $US100 million film since 1989's Parenthood. Come 2003 and Martin now has
three of them, with Cheaper By The Dozen set to pass the $US132.7 million total of House to be his biggest
film yet. In the U.S., Cheaper By The Dozen has made more money in its first two weeks than Something's Gotta
Give made in four. Cheaper By The Dozen has a strength that cannot be ignored, we as have seen many times, its
not a guarantee that a film will be a hit in Australia.
Although Martin's Bringing Down the House was a monster in the U.S., it's dialect proved to go un-spoken in
Australia. To be kind, the film did just ok. Bringing Down the House's soft performance in Australia showed us two
things. As a comeback vehicle for Martin, the film simply didn't generate excitement here, did anyone want to see a Martin
film? Reasoning for success in the U.S. was largely drawn from its large African-American focus thanks to Queen Latifah,
its an identifiable genre that has seen substantial differences in the past between U.S./Australian performances. To prove
the point, Bringing Down the House finished a massive 66% behind* in Australia.
But Cheaper By The Dozen is a different film. The Eddie Murphy comedy Daddy Day Care which also featured a
hapless father coping with children running out of control was hot in both the U.S. and Australia, in fact it was 41%
better* in Australia. That's certainly promising for Dozen. Admittedly, House was Martin film, Dozen
is a family film. It's family friendly content is far more appealing to a holidaying market today than House was
last April to its teenage audience. Competition-wise, Cheaper By The Dozen has just as much to compete against in
its genre as Something's Gotta Give has in its, with Spy Kids 3D, Brother Bear and of course
King being distractions. Movie-goers have an amazing amount of choice this weekend, but what new comedy film will
be the film of choice? Steve or Jack, Jack or Steve? Cheaper By The Dozen has a good chance to trump its foe this
weekend, with anything below a strong $2.5 million opening counting as a surprise.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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