Weekend 1st - 4th July 2004
He was able to fight off his green suited nemesis in Spider-Man, but it appears our web-slinger has found a few
extra problems in over-coming his new big green foe in the battle for 2004's top honours. Spider-Man 2 opened on
top of the chart as was expected, but the manner in which the position was taken has left many of us questioning his
authority. The Tobey Maguire starring sequel to 2002's mega-hyped and hugely successful comic adaptation swung its way
to $7.13 million over the weekend, moving Shrek 2 into position 2 and becoming the third best launch of the year
behind Shrek 2 and the latest Harry Potter film. Opening on a super-wide 441 screens - the widest opening
screen count for the year - Spider-Man 2's average of $16,174 is somewhat muted - more so than its opening weekend
figure - with averages from films like The Day After Tomorrow proving healthier. Counting in its Wednesday launch,
Spider-Man 2 has a current total of $8.73 million.
The weekend breakdown looks something like this. Spider-Man 2 opened on a Wednesday - something that is far less common in Australia than it is in the U.S. - to a quite average $1.6 million. The film was even on day two, the first of the official weekend with another $1.6 million. The film jumped only slightly to $1.7 million on Friday, which was the nail in the coffin so to speak, as an indicator that the weekend wasn't going to head into records territory. Up to $2.1 million on Saturday and then down to $1.8 million Sunday, these are daily figures that defy what we have come to know as blockbuster results. Comparing these to the first Spider-Man film. In 2002, Spider-Man opened with what was considered then to be a soft $1.73 million. However, it jumped each day from there, up to a $1.9 million Friday, a great $3.2 million Saturday and a phenomenal $3.65 million Sunday. The pattern of the first film's weekend suggests that there was only a limited amount of fan-heavy support to fuel its first day. However, word of mouth and a large volume of family business on Saturday and Sunday built it up to a massive $10.55 million weekend, at the time the second best ever. So where did Spider-Man 2 go wrong? Well, judging by it's first day, that core audience of fans that usually build up heavy first days like we have seen with recent blockbusters just wasn't there - at least in significant numbers as was the case in the U.S. over the weekend. Did the Australian audience have a bad taste left over from the first film? Was it simply a case of Spider-Man being the one responsible for such a dramatic downturn in business for film 2? Studios are determined to build franchises these days, pumping in ever-greater expense into their successive films has lead to bigger and better business at the box office. Not so with Spider-Man 2. Is it an inferior film? Have Australians had enough of comic book fever? X2 says we haven't. Spider-Man 2's opening does count as the second biggest comic adaptation launch ever, so that theory doesn't really add up. Realistically though, it's the sixteenth highest Opening Weekend of all-time in Australia, and that isn't really all too impressive. Competition. When Spider-Man opened in 2002, it was going up against the fourth weekend of the reigning, record breaking champion. Up against Shrek 2's third weekend, Spider-Man 2's competition wasn't going to be all that different right? Attack of The Clones was a major hit and pulled in some serious dollars, but Shrek 2 has become nothing short of a Titanic style phenomenon - albeit in a different fashion. When Spider-Man opened, its failure to break Clones' three week old record could have been attributed to Clones itself having depleted demand for the next blockbuster. That theory could very well have been not only brushed aside, but classed as nonsense complete after what happened three weeks ago. Massive stuff from the year's first blockbuster in Azkaban meant that if the first on the block theory was true, then Shrek 2 was at a disadvantage. Maybe it was, but Shrek 2 proved that when an audience wants to see a film, there's nothing that's going to stop them - except perhaps when you're the film going up against the third weekend of Shrek 2. In opening terms, there's no kind way to say Spider-Man 2 not only stumbled, it landed flat on it's face. Was the opening of Spider-Man two years ago such a freak event, that a even this hotly anticipated sequel with its wildly positive reviews, could never hope to match it? Let alone pass it? Negative fan perceptions fuelled by an absence of series originals Cameron and Hamilton, a ridiculed budget and a general feeling of 'why bother with a third' from Joe-Public was overcome last year with a surprisingly strong $7.31 million opening from Terminator 3: Rise of The Machines. Holding power was next to poor, but it managed respectable figures. Before release Spider-Man 2 seemed to have nothing to prove to anyone. While Spider-Man 2's opening weekend comes in 32.5% lower than Spider-Man's, it's unique Wednesday opening helps it stand a better 17.3% lower after the first weekend. But that's with five days of play for Spider-Man 2 against four for Spider-Man. If we were to compare the first five days for each film, then we're including Spider-Man's $2.5 million Monday holiday and Spider-Man 2 is back to 32.8% behind. There's few advantages for Spider-Man 2 at this stage other than a couple of weeks of holidays, but they'll begin to expire around the country in a week. Spider-Man dropped 52% in its second weekend against little new competition. Spider-Man 2's smaller opening offers the hope that through this impending weekend of soft new competition, it can produce a hold that actually causes some respectable approval. Compared to the U.S. pace, Spider-Man 2's regular weekend comes in 19% weaker* in Australia. That's comparing the four days, Thursday to Sunday in Australia and the three days Friday to Sunday in the U.S. Comparing the film's pace at the close of the weekend and including both territories' Wednesday opening figures, Spider-Man 2 stands a disappointing 43% weaker* in Australia. Back in 2002, Spider-Man opened just 8% weaker* in Australia, although that margin was the best it could muster through its run, eventually finishing 24% behind*. Then finishing as the 12th best of all-time, and now standing as the 18th, it achieved results that were an indicator of an appetite for the material that defies Spider-Man 2's current performance. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Spider-Man 2's launch comes in more than $5 million below my $12.5 million four-day prediction, and a massive $6.2 million less than my five-day. Interestingly enough, these forecast blunders count as the largest real dollar miss-fire's in my predictions since I began posting them four and half years ago. Now there's a Spider-Man 2 record that may be worth publicizing. 
Although it lost the reigns to Spider-Man 2 over the weekend, there was really no doubting who was the real
super-hero of the weekend in terms of box office clout. Shrek 2 continued it's ultra-massive run in its third
weekend as it flattened numerous all-time box office records, each just a prestigious as the next. With voice work by
Mike Myers, Cameron Diaz and Eddie Murphy, the animated sequel's $5.30 million weekend take went down as the highest
Third Weekend of all-time in Australia, easily thrashing the previous record holder
Finding Nemo by $1.4 million and solidifying Shrek 2 as one of the greatest releases of all time in
Australia. Speaking of that, Shrek 2's $34.58 million total already ranks in position 11 on the
All-Time chart having just passed E.T.'s $33.81 million, with eyes on unseating
The Phantom Menace in position 7 by the end of the upcoming weekend.
If you can believe it, they actually took screens away from Shrek 2 over the weekend. The film that scored the second best opening of all-time and the best ever second weekend dipped from 437 screens to 430 this weekend. Even though Spider-Man 2 deployed on an ultra-wide count and obviously is the reasoning behind it, you really have to wonder how any screens could be pulled from under the film that clearly has 'year's best' written all over it - in just it's third weekend. If it had fallen over 50% last weekend, it could be understandable. Still averaging $12,345, Shrek 2's third weekend would count as the 31st highest all-time opening if it was to count. If Finding Nemo wasn't enough last year, then Shrek 2 proves to everyone that computer-animation is what audiences want to see on the big-screen, which is sadly a small justifier for Disney's decision to close down it's 2-D animation division. Shrek 2's amazing third weekend allowed the animated smash to whizz past the $32.04 million final that the first film earned through its entire 2001 run. With Shrek 2 completing more than that in such a short time, it almost makes a mockery of the many films we have called star-performers in previous years. Shrek 2 is also set to top out Nemo for highest-animated honours, probably on Friday. While last weekend Shrek 2's Two-Week cumulative total was still behind mega-openers The Return of The King and The Two Towers, this weekend the UIP flick needs to take no such back seat. With $34.58 million, Shrek 2 passes both of the Rings films to count as best performer after Three-Weeks. Amazingly this puts Shrek 2 at a huge $10.5 million ahead of Azkaban at the same point and around $12 million ahead of the first two Potters, removing any doubt that Shrek 2 will be thumping Philosopher’s Stone's $42.31 million final. While the Third Weekend easily counted as the new best third weekend take of all-time, it also easily counts as the new highest take ever to not reach the number one position. That was previously set just two weeks ago by Azkaban, with it's second weekend of $4.07 million - before that it was The Two Towers' third with $3.45 million. It seems the boy wizard can't win a trick, as Shrek 2 is picking off nearly every record ever set, including less admirable ones such as this, that had seemed like a safe hold for Azkaban. Shrek 2's second Monday to Wednesday mid-week frame of $3.94 million was also a new record, well up on its first mid-week of $3.19 million. It also beats the likes of King's $3.26 second mid-week and Fellowship's $3.01 million, a new record which goes hand in hand with the record second and third weekends. With Shrek 2 doing so well now, one may be inclined to ask how high will this film go? It's going to pass all the Potters without breaking a sweat. From there, there's really only a small path to take before it starts tackling the tail end of the Lord of The Rings films. It's $11 million away from The Two Towers' $45.58 million. Next weekend we will see Shrek 2 further it's lead over what Return of The King had after Four-Weeks, but once the school holidays end, Shrek 2 will find it difficult to replicate King's holds. Depending on the lead it can create through the next two mid-week sessions, Shrek 2 is a solid shot for $50 million in Australia. As for Titanic's $57.64 million? This is Shrek 2 we're talking about. Compared to the U.S. pace, Shrek 2 is now tracking 10% ahead* in Australia, up from last weekend's 7% better* pace. In the U.S. Shrek 2's third weekend counted as the second best ever, but was down 47% from the weekend before thanks to the introduction of Azkaban mildly diverting some business. Shrek 2 was able to weather Spider-Man 2's introduction in Australia much better, down only 38%. The record third weekend in Australia stands a hot 50% better* than what it made in the U.S. While Shrek 2 has done incredible business in the U.S., the concentration of business for the film through Australia's school-holiday period has given it a healthy head start. Although that lead will begin to reduce in a week or two, by then Shrek 2 may have built a large enough lead over the U.S. for it to remain there until film's end. 
With the top two films taking in a combined $12.44 million, there wouldn't be much left for anyone else right? Well,
Harry Potter and The Prisoner of Azkaban saw things differently through the frame scoring its best hold to date,
off only 29% from last weekend and finally generating a non-opening weekend result that it can be proud of. Although it
lost 50 screens - against thanks to Spidey 2 - Azkaban collected another $1.71 million to increase its
running total to a fine $26.98 million. This places Azkaban in position 26 on the All-Time
earners chart ahead of Mrs. Doubtfire's $26.24 million, and moves it further up out of what it hopes will be
Spider-Man 2's range for 2004's second best honours.
Compared to the other Harry Potter films, Azkaban is trying its best and is still ahead of the first two films for it, with its current total standing a mild 1.3% ahead of Philosopher's Stone and 3.2% ahead of Chamber of Secrets. The first two Potter's were down 29% and 25% in 2001 an 2002 through their fourth weekends - very similar to Azkaban's fourth - although for each of them, this was the weekend before the Christmas boost which helped them rise 28% and 21% respectively. Azkaban doesn't have a shot at matching that and will fall behind them both through mid-week. Like Shrek 2, Azkaban's mid-week frame Monday to Thursday of $1.29 million was up on the $1.04 million it collected last mid-week, indicating that there has been some tangible holiday help for Azkaban at last. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Prisoner of Azkaban is now tracking 28% ahead* in Australia, up from last weekend's 26% positive cume. The fourth Australian weekend was up* 53% on what it made in the U.S., when through little new direct competition dipped 38% in its fourth frame. Azkaban enjoyed a small decline through the Independence Day weekend and has been making more than the first two films through the mid-week thanks to the summer, but it's weekend holds have been disappointing. Azkaban has more than a month of summer holidays left in the U.S. to help it out, but only two weeks of partial holidays left in Australia. He'll be able to reach $30 million in Australia, but the books will close on Azkaban shortly after that. 
Good holds all-round for the top ten helped Mean Girls add a further $1.27 million through its second weekend. The
Lindsay Lohan starring film about a girl who attends high school for the first time after having been home-schooled in
Africa by her parents was off only 30% thanks to some good word of mouth. Although it was clearly the film of choice for
its target demographic through the holiday period after its opening, Mean Girls' $4.22 million running cume has seen
it become one of the best for quite some time.
With only a short while to go before it passes the $4.98 million of last January's Honey, Mean Girls is currently running well ahead of the slow-to-start Lohan starrer Freaky Friday, which went on to collect $6.18 million. After two weeks Mean Girls is now tracking 15.2% ahead of 2003's Legally Blonde 2, which collected $0.95 million through its second weekend, off a steep 53%. With two more weeks of friendly play, Mean Girls should be able to get up to at least $8 million in Australia. Compared to the U.S. pace, Mean Girls is now tracking on an even level* in Australia, a good catch up from its 26% smaller opening weekend. Although the second weekend in Australia was actually 6% weaker* than the comparable U.S. frame, the difference was exclusively made up from the $0.96 million mid-week frame, Monday to Wednesday, which was a huge 146% better* than the U.S.' first mid-week. As in Australia, Mean Girls was the star performer for its demo in the U.S. while other films targeted at that audience were floundering. It's consistent weekly performances in the U.S. is further evidence that Mean Girls will continue its good run in Australia. 
There was only one addiction on the minds of young girls this weekend, and it wasn't the new film New York Minute.
Collecting less than half of Mean Girls' second weekend, New York Minute's opening frame of $0.6 million
was fair though considering the distractions around. The story about two sisters who must work together to overcome a
series of mishaps that threaten to disrupt their long-term plans launched in fifth place and gave the Warner Bros. release
a soft $4,480 average from its mid-sized 142 screen opening.
With the Olsen twins breaking their habit of appearing in their slew of mostly made for TV movies, New York Minute marks their best debut to date from a small collection of big-screen films that should have gone straight to video anyhow. New York Minute may have come a week or two late to earn anything decent in the long-run, and the much publicized dumping of their Australian promotional tour probably didn't help much. It's a similar opening to the $0.58 million that The Prince and Me managed last weekend. Matching Prince's trajectory may be a problem since it'll have an extra week of holiday play to it's advantage, so something around a $1.8 million final is probably all New York Minute can hope for. Compared to the U.S. pace, the opening of New York Minute surprisingly saw it bow 2% better* in Australia. Perhaps it has something to do with the increased publicity of the twins recently, however negative it may have been. Wile the films debut was admittedly poor in the U.S., from there it was even worse, imploding with impressive speed after weekend two. Given that, New York Minute has a great chance to increase* its current margin, although sadly for the twins' bank balance, that really won't add much to the millions the pair already have. The top 20 films collected $18.14 million over the weekend, up 13.2% from last weekend and up 25.4% from this weekend last year when Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle scored a hot bow with $5.84 million, ahead of Bruce Almighty's $1.98 million third weekend. The weekend was up 20.3% on this weekend from two years ago when Men In Black II opened with $5.35 million ahead of Scooby-Doo's $2.08 million third weekend. Interestingly enough, each of the new number ones from this weekend over the last three years have been Columbia releases. Weekend Coming 8th - 11th July 2004 
As mentioned above, Spider-Man 2 is facing little new competition this weekend. In fact, the most promising of the
bunch is the domestic failure The Whole Ten Yards. The sequel to what was an average quality but reasonably
successful film sees the return of Matthew Perry and Bruce Willis in a story that follows Oz and Jimmy teaming up to rescue
Oz's kidnapped wife. Co-starring Amanda Peet and Natasha Henstridge, The Whole Ten Yards brings to mind the failure
of Analyze That, a sequel which may have been a little more justified before production began.
The Whole Ten Yards opened in the U.S. April with a pretty shocking $US6.68 million. The launch was around half of the $US13.7 million that The Whole Nine Yards gathered upon its opening. The Whole Ten Yards' final of $US16.3 million is just a fraction of the $US57.3 million that the first made. Although it made more in real terms, the Robert DeNiro and Billy Crystal sequel Analyze That opened with $US11.0 million and finished with $US32.1 million, again a fraction of the $US18.4 million opening and $US106.8 million final of Analyze This. In Australia, The Whole Nine Yards was a decent success, opening in March 2000 with a fine $1.31 million and finishing with $4.72 million. Although we're not looking at comparisons in real dollars between the franchises, Analyze That was significantly down on Analyze This in Australia also, which doesn't bode well for The Whole Ten Yards. This weekend the film may be able to muster a lowly $0.5 million. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |