Weekend: 2nd - 5th November 2006
The opening of Saw III over the weekend was almost enough to re-write a few
horror-related records, opening to some of the best figures Australia has ever seen for the genre. Furthering the unusually
high volume of MA15+ films currently charting, Saw III's $2.57m easily gave distributor Hoyts is biggest opening
since its 2003 re-launch, racing past the $1.76m of previous high Saw II. The Tobin Bell and Shawnee Smith-starring
second sequel sees game-player Jigsaw return, forcing a doctor to prolong his life - he's still alive - as his apprentice
conducts more brutal tests on those unappreciative of their lives. Average's of
$12,347 per its 208 Screen gave Saw III the best average of the franchise and
also saw the chart's best number-one average since the second weekend frame of the year's biggest film,
Dead Man's Chest 16 weeks ago.
Good news for Hoyts and good news for their Saw Franchise. Saw III's bow was 46% higher than Saw II's opening, which itself was 60% higher than the $1.10m of the original Saw - outstanding growth for a franchise, let alone a horror franchise. The likes of the recent X-Men, Final Destination and Harry Potter franchises have all seen subsequent sequels excel the openings of prior films, but not to the level of growth displayed by Saw, which is truly remarkable. The original Saw closed to a very decent $4.32m in Australia, while Saw II's great $5.79m final grew by 34% over that. Given that Saw III's opening grew over the previous film by less than Saw II did, its fair to assume a slimmer level of final tally growth as well. Something in the order of 25% would net Saw III $7.25m in Australia - can in reach such heights? Saw III's opening ranks as the 171st-best of All-Time in Australia, falling between two other horror films on that list, the $2.57m of 1997's sequel Scream 2 and the $2.56m of 2001's The Others. Indeed, its Scream 2 and a very few other select inclusions from the horror genre that are able to claim a better opening than Saw III. Depending on what film's you believe qualify as horror, the others are The Blair Witch Project's powerful $3.56m and The Sixth Sense's $4.66m. This omits such films as Hannibal and Van Helsing, which I'm sure won't cause too many worthwhile arguments. On the November openers chart, Saw III comes in behind the $2.74m of 2003's S.W.A.T., which closed to $8.07m and again heads The Others' $2.56m. The Kidman chiller displayed great stamina and ended with $10.74m in Australia. As for comparisons to horror films from the last few years, the Recent Horror listing shows Saw III's launch compares most favourably, surpassing all of them. It Saw III a new high point in horror, does it signal a shift in acceptance of the genre in Australia? Horror films have been performing well in the U.S. for as long as one cares to remember, doing particularly well in the last few years. While Saw III is certainly on the high end of the genre in the U.S., there have been plenty of comparable examples, yet Saw III is in a clear class of its own in Australia, especially over the last three years. Is it the trusted brand name, something in the way it was marketed or has Tobin Bell mysteriously managed to channel some of Tom Cruise's lost drawing power? It had a very poor trailer and its posters were less inspiring than Saw II's, or even Scary Movie 4's, but to whatever made this one a hit, its finally given a shot to the horror arm of the Australian box office. Compared to the U.S. pace, Saw III also managed something a little special. It's opening weekend in Australia was just 24% slimmer. It's rarely that a horror film opens less than 50% smaller* in Australia, let alone do something much better than that, against a film that itself scored one of the genre's biggest openings in the U.S. market. Last year, Saw II opened 45% weaker* while in 2004, Saw opened 40% smaller* - one of the genre's better margins. Other 2006 horror films, such as Final Destination 3 opened 48% down*, Hostel was 58% down*, Silent Hill opened 63% weaker* while The Grudge 2 opened a massive 65% down*. On the terribly horrific side, The Hills Have Eyes suffered an almost non-start at 72% under* pace and The Fog was laughable at 73% weaker*. Wolf Creek is an exception for obvious reasons. Had I written a forecast last weekend, it wouldn't have pegged anything over a $1.8m opening, probably more around $1.5m. 
Departing the top position in its fourth week of release was Warner Bros.' impressive three-week champion and box-office
strong arm The Departed. Down just 21% over the weekend, it's another genuine
indication that the Australian public have embraced the film, propelling it up amongst the year's second-half champs.
Collecting $1.07m through the weekend, the DiCaprio-Damon crime drama is still racing towards $10m and now has $8.65m in
the bank. The puts the Scorsese-directed flick in position 18 on the 2006 chart.
That total moves The Departed beyond the $8.25m earned by last year's similar opener Collateral. After opening very similarly to You, Me and Dupree and keeping a comparable track for the first couple of weeks, The Departed is starting to move ahead of the eventual $10m comedy. The July opener was itself an impressive performer with slim week on week declines, netting the Wilson-Dillon comedy $10.08m in Australia. After four weeks, The Departed is tracking 10% ahead, up from a 7% lead last weekend. It's unlikely as this stage that The Departed will go on to challenge DiCaprio's Catch Me If You Can for third position on his resume, as the Hanks co-starrer had $11.88m after four weeks and ended up with a fine $14.85m in Australia. After four weeks, The Departed is now tracking 17% behind Matt Damon's 2002 thriller The Bourne Identity, up from a 22% smaller pace last weekend. The Departed is now earning more in real dollars and is holding better than Identity, so reaching that film's $12.89m final isn't out of the question yet. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Departed is now tracking 5% behind* in Australia, a small improvement on the 7% smaller* pace of last weekend. The slim holds in Australia are now better than those seen in the U.S., where it was off 27% in its fourth frame - and was also dislodged from the top position by Saw III. The fourth weekend take in Australia was 9% stronger* in Australia. 
Flags of Our Fathers furthered the trend of MA15+ films at the top end of
the charts, rounding out the top three with a $0.72m opening. The Warner Bros. film which follows the stories of the six
soldiers who took part in the famous raising of the U.S. flag during the invasion of Iwo Jima failed score the most
decisive of averages, collecting $3,356 from each of its 214 Screens, or roughly a
quarter of what was summoned by fellow new competitor Saw III.
Ranking in position 71 on the 2006 Openers chart, Flags of Our Fathers opened between the $0.73m of March's Match Point and the $0.69m of August's Fearless. The Woody Allen drama ended with $4.24m while Jet Li managed to squeeze $1.68m out of his latest actioner. Warner Bros. would be hoping to score something in the middle out of their latest Clint Eastwood-directed awards hunter, a $2.5m final would be close to the likes of March's Cronenberg drama A History of Violence, which opened to a similar $0.69m. For Director Eastwood, the opening was along the lines of the $0.67m collected by Mystic River back in late 2003. However given that Fathers has been a moderate performer at best in the U.S., there's simply no chance that it'll be able to channel that same kind of amazing holding power Mystic saw. Perhaps it'll end up around the $2.78m levels of his 1997 flick Absolute Power, which opened with $0.78m. Compared to the U.S. pace, Flags of Our Fathers opened 30% down* in Australia. 
Holding fourth position for the third weekend in a row was the great holder Little
Miss Sunshine. Down just 6% in its fourth weekend, the Collette-Kinnear-Carell starring feature collected $0.60m
through the weekend, upping it total to a quite fine $4.09m. Fox have done a wonderful job with the off-centre comedy,
moving it from the realms of sub-million openers into running totals more commonly enjoyed by $1.5m plus openers.
So where will it end up? It's cruised past the $3.84m of Feb's Syriana and is now enjoying weekly totals in excess of April's amazing performer The World's Fastest Indian, which collected $0.51m in its fourth weekend. Currently Little Miss Sunshine is tracking 9% behind the New Zealand themed Hopkins starrer, although that film did see its most impressive results in the first four weeks. If Sunshine can keep its great holds going then $6.5m is a very good chance. Compared to the U.S. pace, Little Miss Sunshine is tracking 1% behind* in Australia, up from the 4% smaller* pace of last weekend. Comparative results have been somewhat distorted through the first few weeks, but have now reached fair ground. The local fourth weekend take was an inspiring 41% stronger* in Australia, against a seventh weekend in the U.S. which declined 44%. Little Miss Sunshine should continue to gain ground in Australia, despite a very leggy U.S. run. 
Despite all the glory rightly earned by Saw III, The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine above it, the
chart's golden gun easily remains The Devil Wears Prada. An unexpected box
office winner - at least in the size of which it has dominated - Prada continues to earn head-scratchingly good
results from an audience that can't seem to be sated. Collecting $0.53m through a stylish sixth weekend, the Fox smash now
has an amazing $15.52m to its name.
On the 2006 Chart, the total brings Prada one slot up on Fox's own February hit Walk The Line, which collected a very sweet $15.15m in Australia. It's current seventh-position ranking on the chart sits it behind the $16.25m of June's Over The Hedge and the $16.47m of X-Men 3, both of which look certain to fall to Prada. On the All Time listing, Prada's currently ranking in position 131, just a slot behind the $15.68m of 2004's hit Something's Gotta Give Having flown past Hitch's $14.19m, Prada is now tracking 2% ahead of 2003's hit Two Weeks Notice. Having kept its weekly cumes at relatively similar amounts to the Bullock flick, Prada's sixth frame is has shown a much slimmer decline, 23% vs. 37%, which means a final well above its $16.10m. Compared to the U.S. pace, the Anne Hathaway, Meryl Streep picture is now tracking 38% ahead* in Australia, even with last weekend, but more importantly a halt to the weekly reductions in its initial 80% lead*. For all the amazing praise it's rightly earned itself through its U.S. run, it's been that much more impressive in Australia. The top 20 films collected $8.40m over the weekend, up 26% on last weekend and up 24% on this weekend from Last Year when horror was again the order of the weekend as local flick Wolf Creek topped the charts with $1.22m, just above the $1.06m of fellow entrant Elizabethtown. The weekend however was down 9% on this weekend from Two Years Ago when Hero bowed with a fine $2.26 and The Forgotten collected $1.48m also in its opening frame. Weekend Coming: 9th - 12th November 2006 
Jackass Number Two looks to halt a chart-topping repeat by Saw III and its chances of doing so are very good.
Directed again by Jackass veteran Jeff Tremaine, the gang from the TV show and the first movie are back, headed by
Johnny Knoxville. As with the first film, there's barely a plot to discuss, however Jackass Number Two's draw is
again in its promise of elevating the level danger and risk from the stunts we've seen the boys do before. Sold.
Jackass Number Two opened in the U.S. with a great $US29.0m in late September, easily stealing top spot from Gridiron Gang and tripling the $US10.6m of fellow opener Fearless. Produced for a relatively heavy $US12m, considering it's a loose collection of random stunts, Jackass Number Two has gone on to earn a great $US72.5m close to the end of its run. The opening weekend was 28% better than the $US22.8m collected by Jackass: The Movie back in 2002, while its final has ended up 13% better* than the original's $US64.3m. For Knoxville, the film wasn't too far behind the $US30.7m opening and $US80.3m final of last year's The Dukes of Hazzard. In Australia, Jackass: The Movie opened late February with a chart-topping $1.60m, removing Just Married from the top spot. It wasn't the best holder around, understandably, but did go on to earn $4.59m in Australia, which by all measures was a reasonable total. In 2002 there may have been a problem with brand awareness, but in 2006, given the original films that's not the case for Jackass Number Two. There hasn't been a wide-scale comedy targeting this denominator for some time, so Jackass Number Two should be able to do very well, an easy number one. Can it reach You, Me and Dupree number of $2.5m or will it be more of a Date Movie at $1.80m. 30% growth would give Jackass Number Two an opening of $2.1m this weekend. 
Also opening this weekend is Russell Crowe's A Good Year. Bowing the same weekend as in the U.S., the film is
directed by Ridley Scott in the second of a soon-to-be third collaboration with Crowe. The Gladiator duo take on a
more subtle tone with their drama A Good Year, co-starring Freddie Highmore, Albert Finney. Adapted from Peter
Mayle's novel, A Good Year follows the story of an English guy who inherits a vineyard in France from his uncle.
Upon arriving at the property where he spent a deal of his childhood, he discovers that an American woman claims the
property as her own and that his initial decisions to sell it might not be as simple as he thought.
A Good Year might have a little more punch in Australia than in the U.S. this weekend simply because of Russell and also due to its theme. Other journey-to-Europe romances such as Under The Tuscan Sun and Chocolat have often done better in Australia. 2004's Tuscan opened to $1.21m and collected $6.07m in Australia, up* 36% on the U.S. total, while Chocolat bowed to $0.84m in 2001 and finished with a quite sweet $10.06m, up* 41% on the U.S. pace. Crowe usually delivers better* results in Australia, although the heavily American-themed Cinderella Man was a recent exception for obvious reasons. Since his dual $3m openers A Beautiful Mind and Master and Commander in 2002 and 2003 respectively, Cinderella is his only chart entry with a $1.37m opening. Can A Good Year do better? It won't be a contender for the top spot but the Fox flick might draw in $1.4m this weekend. 
The Wrong Man hopes to find an audience in Australia thanks to a title change, trying the best it can to distance
itself from the clunky Lucky Number Slevin, of which U.S. audiences baulked at in terrifying numbers. The Roadshow
film stars Bruce Willis, Josh Harnett, Lucy Lui, Ben Kingsley and Morgan Freeman, The Wrong Man follows a guy who's
mistaken for someone who matters in the underworld war between The Rabbi and The Boss. Now also under surveillance by the
police and targeted by an assassin, our guy must weight in with his own plot to save his skin.
As Lucky Number Slevin, The Wrong Man opened in the U.S. back in April with a blisteringly bad $US7.0m, enough only for position five on the charts, not really a good investment from MGM. Going on to earn $US22.5m, it was less of a complete disaster than the likes of the Morgan Freeman comedy The Big Bounce or the Willis sequel The Whole Ten Yards, which made $US6.5m and $US16.3m respectively. Amongst peers, the total was close the $US23.5m of the more serious Heist and the $US25.2m of 2000's Freeman-starring identity-crisis flick Nurse Betty. Although The Wrong Man at $US22.5m was far under the $US36.9m of Willis' previous flick 16 Blocks, locally it has a far better chance to do something better. That film opened to $457k and just rolled over $1m with $1.04m. His sequel The Whole Ten Yards opened with similar poor numbers of $490k and collected $0.95m all up. Can The Wrong Man do better than that sorry precedent? Something like the $0.61m opening and $1.85m final of Willis' Hostage would suit Roadshow better, but they're still soft numbers. $0.6m might be possible for The Wrong Man. * Based on a US index of 10/1 ($US/$AU) with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 1.27/1 (£/$AU) with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |