Weekend 2nd - 5th September 2004
Shyamalan's fourth major big screen chiller managed only mild results through the weekend as The Village scored a
solid yet un-impressive number one launch. Opening only a few weeks away from a similarly non-explosive debut by the late
August 2002 launch of his previous film Signs, The Village was able to chase up $3.11 million this weekend.
Starring Joaquin Phoenix, William Hurt and Sigourney Weaver, The Village follows the trials of a secluded village
who begin to see a shift in the balance they have formed with the creatures that are feared to dwell in the woods beyond
their borders. Opening on 290 screens, The Village averaged an ok $10,750 from each of them, around the same average
as Kill Bill 2 and 50 First Dates, films with which aligned certainly excludes it from running with the big
guns of the year. The Village's opening counts as the year's 12th best, and on the all time ladders it slots in at
a lowly number 92, right between the Carrey duo of The Truman Show and Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls.
Compared to other Shyamalan films, The Village's launch is the third best, or second worst - which ever way you prefer to look at it - behind the $4.66 million opening of 1999's The Sixth Sense and the $3.78 million of 2002's Signs. The opening however was able to beat out the 2.40 million of 2000's Unbreakable, which went on to collect $8.77 million. Both of his other films went on to cross $10 million, with Signs collecting $11.97 million - quite poor on a U.S. comparison* standard and also against the success of Sixth Sense in Australia - while Sense ended up with $29.29 million. Now while Signs opened on a wider 335, it's average of $11,289 was only a few notches better than The Village's. This reduction in screen count for The Village surely highlights an anticipated downturn in business from what Signs saw, as at the moment the films playing are not reaching screen saturation levels as they were only eight weeks ago with the winter blockbusters all in competition. In perspective, lets look at the opening power of The Village. This year has seen some bizarre occurrences, such as Spider-Man 2's baffling weakness and King Arthur's come from nowhere success. The Blighty legend was a no-show in the U.S., but it launched with an awesome $3.34 million in Australia, beating out The Village's opening. Rewinding to what the films scored in the U.S. and it would only have been a mad-man to suggest that Arthur could out-gun The Village in Australia. The Sixth Sense was a good movie as evidenced by its success, but is Shyamalan's technique wearing thin with Australian audiences? Is the certainty of expecting a twist ending downplaying an effect that once worked so well, or are a few red herrings now not enough to compensate for a concept that's only trying to rehash previous success? Signs averaged a 40% fall rate through its first few weeks, and The Village's precedent doesn't look pretty for its road in Australia. King Arthur held moderately on its way to $9 million in Australia, and we shouldn't expect anything more than that from The Village. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Village's launch comes in 39% lower* in Australia. This margin is very similar to the 37% weaker* opening of Shyamalan's Signs, which eventually rounded out 47% weaker* in Australia. Signs had very good holding power in the U.S., which translated to rather questionable holds in Australia. If that's anything to go by, then The Village's weekly implosions in the U.S. signify a quick death for the film locally. Of course, nothing it set in stone, just look at King Arthur. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, The Village's opening came in right on par with my $3.1 million prediction. 
Falling to second position in its second weekend was the Matt Damon starring The Bourne Supremacy. Following the
adventures of amnesiac spy Jason Bourne as he resurfaces to find out why he was targeted for assassination while in hiding,
The Bourne Supremacy collected an additional $2.58 million. Falling an expected 47%, The Bourne Supremacy
has seen its total elevate to a commendable $8.93 million in 11 days. This already puts The Bourne Supremacy in
position 17 for 2004, and it will pass through the $10 million mark by next weekend to become the 15th film of 2004 to do
so.
Compared to the first film, The Bourne Supremacy is now tracking 34.9% ahead of The Bourne Identity, out from the 75.8% better opening from last weekend. That drastic change is attributed to the extremely soft 19% second weekend dip that Identity enjoyed in early October of 2002. Still, in real dollars, Supremacy's current cume is well ahead of the $6.62 million that Identity had through 11 days, and beating the first film to $10 million by more than a week assures Supremacy of passing its $12.83 million total within five weeks, possible four. Compared to the latest Bond film, The Bourne Supremacy is now tracking 6.0% behind where Die Another Day was after the same period, down from the 2.1% better opening. Die Another Day had the luxurious advantage of the December holiday break through 2002 taking place through weeks two, three and four. Unfortunately for Supremacy, the September holidays won't be able to show their magic until the middle of its run, and that's after the opportunity to collect the real dollars has passed. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Bourne Supremacy now sits 10% behind* in Australia. This is out from the 7% weaker* opening from last weekend despite the 47% second weekend dip bettering the 54% second U.S. weekend fall. The second weekend frame itself was actually 7% better* in Australia than in the U.S., with the current cume reversal explained by stronger mid-week sales through the U.S. summer period outweighing the soft non-holiday mid-week in Australia. 
The other new film of the weekend was the Jennifer Garner comedy Suddenly 30. Renamed from its U.S. title of
13 Going On 30, the film follows a young girl who suddenly finds herself 17 years older and learning all of life’s
adult lessons through a child’s eyes. Thankfully avoiding the psychological pedophilia of Big, Suddenly 30
opened with a cool $1.78 million over the weekend, averaging $8,068 from each of its 221 screens. Counting in last
weekend's 11th placed previews, and Suddenly 30 has a running cume of $1.98 million in the bank.
Compared to other recent teen focused comedies, Suddenly 30's opening is very close to the $1.81 million launch of Mean Girls. The June release also enjoyed a stint of previews, closing with a mirrored $1.98 million after its first weekend. From there, Mean Girls witnessed a few good declines thanks to the holiday period. Suddenly 30 has the opportunity to follows a very similar run pattern, and could do even better, as the September holidays have proven helpful to other films like Freaky Friday and Legally Blonde in the past. Suddenly 30's chances of collecting $8.51 million remain solid, even if it has only been one week. Compared to the U.S. pace, Suddenly 30's opening comes in 15% lower* in Australia behind what was a very powerful opening in the U.S. Although the genre started out weakly in the U.S., films aimed at teenage girls have gone on to do some good things, with Mean Girls, 13 Going On 30, The Princess Diaries 2 and A Cinderella Story each proving successful in 2004. Comparing the film with the U.S. at the close of the weekend including previews, Suddenly 30 stands a better 6% behind*. Mean Girls opened a larger 26% weaker* in Australia, though with good holds, it was able to reverse that quickly and end up 3% ahead* in Australia after the June holiday period wrapped. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Suddenly 30's launch came in a few notches ahead of my $1.5 million prediction. The top 20 films collected $9.99 million over the weekend, up 6.1% on last weekend but down 5.2% on this weekend from last year when Finding Nemo was again tops with a super-sized $5.98 million second weekend. The weekend was up a great 51.0% on this weekend from two years ago when Insomnia lead a dreary crop with $1.47 million. Weekend Coming 2nd - 5th September 2004 
Leading the films this weekend is the sneak previewed Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story. Starring Vince Vaughn and
Ben Stiller, the film follows Average Joe gym instructor Peter, who must mould his clientele of loyal misfits into a
championship winning dodgeball team. They need to win in order to claim the $50,000 prize which will keep the gym secure
from the ruthless take over attempts of White's Global Gym. Also featuring Christine Taylor, Dodgeball was directed
by first timer Rawson Marshall Thurber. The film was a huge hit for Fox June and July, becoming one of the most profitable
films of the year.
Opening in first place with a very hot $30.0 million, Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story saw some very good holds on its way to a current cume of $113.7 million. Close to the end of its run, the film made more than its softly budgeted $US20 in its first weekend. For Vaughn, Dodgeball was arguably his first starring role, although many co-starring roles in films such as Old School - $US17.5 million opening, $US75.5 million final - and The Cell - $US17.5 million opening, $US61.3 million final - have given him a name. Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story has become the actors first $US100 million film since the $US229 million of franchise effort The Lost World. For Stiller though, 2004 has been his banner year, with a count of three films over $US100 million (There's Something About Mary and Meet The Parents), he has starred in three $US85 million plus films, and cameoed in the successful Anchorman. He still has Meet The Fockers to come in December also. In Australia, Old School was only a mild success, though April's Starsky and Hutch proved to be a big winner thanks to the Easter holiday period. Stiller over-exposure doesn't seem to be a problem as Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story will be hoping to do another Hutch through September, but it wouldn't be considered a disappointment if it did an Along Came Polly instead. The Vince Vaughn baddie opening with $3.45 million and concluded with $13.43 million, which the Jennifer Anniston co-starrer opened with $2.55 million on its way to $9.06 million. Dodgeball is just the comedy that's needed to pick up the flow on success of White Chicks, though Dodgeball is capable of much more than what will be a $5.2 million final. Dodgeball is a film that school leavers will rally around. Opening with $1.8 million this weekend, Dodgeball is a good contender for position number one. 
Also opening this weekend is the Tom Hanks flick The Terminal. Directed by Steven Spielberg and co-starring
Catherine Zeta-Jones, The Terminal follows an Eastern European immigrant the finds himself stranded in an
international airport. Unable to return home due to his country's lack of existence, and the U.S. governments lack of
willingness to accept him as an immigrant, our loveable Viktor has no option but to call the airport his home.
Although it roughly doubled the $US39.7 million of The Ladykillers, The Terminal's $US77.2 million was still rather low on the Ton Hanks scale. The moderately priced $US60 million opened in the U.S. with an ok $US19.1 million, better than The Ladykillers' $US12.6 million. Hanks' 2004 films turned the tide somewhat in an incredible string of success for the accomplished actor. His seven previous films made over $US100 million, with 13 in total passing that figure. The Ladykillers was an even bigger mess in Australia than it was in the U.S. After three weeks in Australia the film has mustered only $1.311 million, and falling 68% in its third weekend means it will be only a memory by this coming weekend. It's poor performance had more to do with a disinterest in the film than a loss in faith of the actor. This is good for The Terminal, as it has a much better chance to use the Hanks name to effect, though on one level it is still a bumbling semi-comedic role, as was Ladykillers, which audiences don't really remember Hanks for. The Terminal could very well be headed for a Big Fish kind of run, which opened with $1.18 million for a $4.85 million final total. The Terminal may collect $1 million this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |