Sorry everyone, but because of time constraints this weekend due to travel, I've only been able to write up the forecast.
Weekend Coming 10th - 13th June 2004
There'll be no surprise come next week as to who the new champ on the block is going to be. Harry Potter and The
Prisoner of Azkaban arrives in Australia, the weekend after a platform release in Tasmania, to what are sure to be
stunning figures. The third entry in what is proving to be J.K. Rowling's series of commendable longevity, has been busting
records in its native U.K. and doing top-notch business in the U.S. too. The series' three main stars return, Daniel
Radcliff, Emma Watson and Rupert Grint, along with fan favourite Alan Rickman, a small Maggie Smith appearance, a new
Dumbledore in Michael Gambon and Gary Oldman in the co-title role. Directed by Alfonso Cuaron (Y Tu Mama Tambien),
we follow Harry after having battled Voldemort in the first round and defeating his giant basilisk in number two,
Azkaban takes a different road as it focuses on the character of Sirius Black, who's out to kill Harry due to
circumstances linking him to Harry's parents and their deaths.
Harry Potter and The Prisoner of Azkaban opened just last weekend in the U.S. to a commanding $US93.7 million, the third best launch of all time in the U.S. Opening day figures were originally estimated at $US41 million, out-gunning Spider-Man's record first Friday and setting tongues wagging that it would collect $US120 million in its first weekend. It seems that Azkaban however is already suffering from sequelitis, as both Philosopher's Stone and Chamber of Secrets enjoyed bountiful Saturday rises, although Azkaban withdrew by a worrying 18% from its impressive first day. Still, Azkaban has the summer season ahead of it, which has already proven an insatiable field for Shrek 2, and its first Monday take of $US8.4 million excels the first two entries, so a healthy shelf life is certainly on the cards. For comparison's sake, the $US93.7 million opening for Azkaban was better than both the $US90.3 million of the first film and the $US88.4 million of the second. The $US130 million film, the most expensive of the Potter franchise to date, as a great likelihood of passing the $US262 million of Secrets which set the studio back $US100 million to produce, and is also looking promising to meet the $US318 total of the first, which was budgeted at $US125 million.
No one is disputing they are great figures, if not all-time record breaking. However, the U.K. is a different story. With an unusual release pattern, Azkaban set off on a public holiday on Monday to a record opening and single day $US9.2 million, earning $US26.3 million through the mid-week session Monday to Thursday, and $US17.5 million over the official opening weekend. With $US43.7 million in the bank already, Azkaban is far ahead of the $US23 million opening of Stone and the $US29.8 million opening of Secrets. The opening weekend for Azkaban itself however, only counts as the 6th largest debut, although obviously skewed by its first four days.
Harry Potter and The Prisoner of Azkaban is undoubtedly a world-wide phenomenon, and Australia isn't usually a party to exclude itself from these kinds of events. Previous Harry Potter and Lord of The Rings successes attest to the fact we are one of the most ferocious to embrace them. The golden difference, although as with the U.S. and the U.K., is that this isn't November or December, times that are usually classed as our prime cinema-going time of year, or Australia's Summer season. To be getting so many U.S. summer blockbusters so quickly is unprecedented, although Troy and The Day After Tomorrow's recent successes prove that we can take what we are given and make them huge, even through the winter and non-holiday months.
Speaking of holidays, Australia's winter spread is a bizarre one. Tasmania, with only three school terms, started on the 31st of May, while Vic and Qld begin on the 26th of June. SA, NSW and the ACT start on the 3rd of July, while WA pulls a weird one and starts on its lonesome on the 10th of July. This means a skewed and lengthy holiday period around the country to keep films like Azkaban and Shrek 2 from steep declines for some time.
While the first two films now stand in positions 13 and 25 in the U.S., they sit pretty in positions 6 and 9 in Australia. Down a little on the U.K.'s 4 and 6, the final $42.3 and $37.4 million totals of Stone and Secrets are still very enviable in Australian terms. It's of course common knowledge that films lose popularity as they age, and the third film in the series, if not the death-knell, is usually a yawner. Records in the U.K. and a third all time bow in the U.S. say different this time around. This time of the year, early June, has played host to huge releases before in the form of Spider-Man, and Azkaban really is the first mega-blockbuster of the year despite what Troy has done. Speaking in terms of potential to open with at least $10 million, Azkaban is the first since Return of The King. Stone opened in 2001 with a then record $9.25 million. Secrets did better by opening with $10.64 million. Both that sequence and Spidey's proof of June potential mean that Azkaban is set for something special. Although school ain't out yet, millions of fans are ready to bust into theatres to see the film. Another positive cog in the works is that after much protest from Warner Bros., the Office of Film and Literature Classification has seen it fit to revise its original M15 rating down to the family friendly PG, in the line with the previous two films. Harry Potter and The Prisoner of Azkaban has its legions of fans, young and old. Taking no prisoners this weekend, Azkaban should be able to enter the $10 million club and stick it to Reloaded with an $11.5 million launch.
Also opening is the zombie actioner Dawn of The Dead. Originally scheduled for September, the Universal film's U.S.
success convinced its local to move the film up to the June 10 position, a rare treat for a market that usually sees
nothing but dates pushed back. The film stars Sarah Polley and Vhing Rhames and is directed by first timer Zack Snyder.
This version of Dawn of The Dead utilizes the base story of a group of survivors of a zombie plague who shelter in
a mall, essentially an amped up remake of the classic 1978 George A Romero film of the same name. This time around, instead
of slow moving zombies your grandma could out-run, these rigor mortis-free zombies are as energetic as Richard Simmons and
twice as deadly.
Dawn of The Dead opened in the U.S. last March was a commanding first place $US26.7 million. Bringing memories of last year's successful Texas Chainsaw Massacre remake, Dawn of The Dead's modest $US26 million production budget meant that the film's eventual $US58.9 million has made the film quite profitable. Although Massacre opened with a slightly better $US28 million, is survived on better holding power to finish with $US80.5 million. While Dawn of The Dead was a success, its content proved to be less digestible for an audience in the long term, even if the film benefited from far better reviews. Dawn of The Dead has also opened in the U.K., earning a nice $US10 million, up on Texas' $US6.6 million and Freddy's $4.4 million, which bodes well for its Australian potential.
The horror genre is an area that has been appreciated by the mainstream in the U.S. for some time, but has only ever had a cult following in Australia, unless there's a catch, as with Kidman starring in The Others, but then that was a thriller more so than a horror film. Last year's U.S. horror hits, Texas and Freddy Vs. Jason, along with the sequels Final Destination 2 and Jeepers Creepers II did nicely in the U.S., but were for the large part ignored in Australia, with the exception of Destination 2's fine $3.05 million. But finals of $3.10 million for Freddy and $3.70 million for Texas, though a little higher, are around 55 to 60% lower* than their U.S. takes. With UIP bumping its release up, there having been no horror film out in quite a while, and generally good reviews for the film, Dawn of The Dead should at least be able to replicate an opening in the $1 to $1.5 million range that the previously mentioned films achieved. Of the people who don't care for young wizards or from those that have already seen him, Dawn of The Dead could open with $1.4 million this weekend.
* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.