Weekend 3rd - 6th October 2005
Roadshow scored a neat number one with their highly anticipated flick Wolf Creek.
The Greg McLean-directed horror takes its queue from various Australian backpacker murder cases, and was the first local
production in more than two years to hit the number one spot. The previous local film to do so was the expensive Heath
Ledger-starring Ned Kelly, which spent two weeks on top. Collecting $1.22m, the film
opened with an average of $8,104, bettering the theatre average of the last 3 weekend toppers. Counting in last weekend's
previews, Wolf Creek has a current cume of $1.58m.
The film, which follows three adventurers on a road trip across Western Australia, managed its number one launch on just 151 screens, the lowest count for a number one film this year with Closer's 157 the previous lowest. To find lower we rewind to February 2004 when The Passion of the Christ averaged $20,505 on 145 screens. Wolf Creek's opening is the 40th-strongest for 2005 so far, but is that really what was expected of the film? Awareness of Wolf Creek wasn't a problem, as far as local productions go, few have been more highly anticipated, with applies fairly to at least the cinema-going portion of the public. There was plenty of awareness, but the hype of the matter appears to be have largely contained to a smaller than expected portion of the community, with various parallels of that effect previously seen with Serenity; people knowing about the film doesn't always translate. So why then, with the film widely touted as the next big thing, does its opening feel muted? Did its R-rating play a role in that? We may be able to cite the Kill Bill films as an example to say that it does. In the U.S., the second film opened 14% up on the first, whilst in Australia, with the aid of a downsized MA rating, Kill Bill: Vol. 2 opened 36% better than the R-rated Kill Bill: Vol. 1, although that's more of a theory than a concrete rationale. The opening for Wolf Creek counts as the 18th-best when compared to the 'purely Australian' titles on the Australian-affiliated Local Productions list. Making my job much easier and avoiding comparisons to the likes of I Still Know.. and The Cell (other similarly themed and performing November openers), Wolf Creek's bow comes in a touch behind the $1.26m of 2000's Chopper. Also rated R, the Eric Bana flick was fuelled from a high degree of publicity and general interest, and like Wolf Creek sourced material from another of Australia's notorious criminal indentities. That film also enjoyed a weekend of previews and had $1.55m after weekend one, ending with a very neat $5.79m in Australia. Can Wolf Creek do better or even match it? Chopper was tops for one week, off just 28% in its second weekend, keeping its declines below 40% for the next two weeks. It's a tall ask for a thriller with copious amounts of horror plastered over it. Wolf Creek has yet to open in the U.S. Although it opened a couple of months ago in the U.K., comparisons are largely unnecessary due to the fact it's bound to be so much more potent locally. Point in the case, it opened 157% better^ here. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Wolf Creek's $1.22m bow was 90% accurate against my $1.1m opening prediction. 
Although Wolf Creek took weekend honours in arguably ambiguous fashion, the other weekend's new release,
Elizabethtown, took second place with some quite certain poise. Starring
Orlando Bloom, the film about a down and out footwear designer on his way to his father's funeral opened with a fine
$1.06m. Also starring Kirsten Dunst, the story sees his purpose and drive return after meeting a revitalising flight
attendant on his trip home.
Opening on 210 screens, Elizabethtown's average of $5,043 wasn't on the high end. Of films this year to open on 100 screens or more, it's average was the 56th strongest. The opening was the 44th-best of 2005 so far, coming in above Serenity's $1.05m and Red Eye's $1.09m. The similarly themed April flick In Good Company opened with $0.99m. The Topher Grace flick which parallels the 'hot shot who develops bad luck and then finds a girl and rebounds feel good story' eventually finished in Australia with $3.39m. Elizabethtown certainly packs a deal more star power than In Good Company was able to wield, especially when talking about a teen and young adult audience. Will that translate to better holding power? Roadshow opened it on 85 more screens than UIP offered to Company, yet it only opened $67k better. Bloom did well in Australia last year in his first solo headlining gig with Kingdom of Heaven. Elizabethtown is a different kind of film, one that relies heavily on the people within it, rather than the concept-driven war or battle film that he's almost exclusively appeared in before this. Averages aren't backing him up if Elizabethtown was the first real test of his star power. But what was expected from Elizabethtown? We all know who Bloom is, but aside from successfully selling magazines, he's typically only been part of bigger, better ensembles - not yet a trusted lead to spend money on and this was a new genre for him. Kirsten Dunst has also been a suppliment to her pictures, first stretching her leading legs in Bring it On and then again last year in Wimbledon, with respective openings of $1.38m and $1.86m. Wimbledon held moderately well and finished with $5.7m in Australia. Compared to the U.S. opening, Elizabethtown's Australian debut comes in right on par*, or down* by a few tenths of a percent. Elizabethtown performed rather softly in the U.S., with a weak third-placed opening and disappointing weekly holds for a film like this. All up it's performed around 30% softer than In Good Company's U.S. effort. In April In Good Company opened 40% behind* the U.S. pace and finished around 23% behind*. If Elizabethtown holds to an average decline ratio in Australia of about 35%, as did Company, it'll finish around 10% better* here. 
Pride and Prejudice moved down to third position in its third frame,
although a better hold saw it jump ahead of the reason it lost top spot last weekend. The Knightley-MacFadyen-starring
picture was off 35% for a $0.73m weekend, propelling its three-week total to an admiringly suitable $4.90m. The film
gained another 2 screens over the weekend, which wouldn't have been on odd thing if it had risen last weekend or fell by
less than 10%. Perhaps it was due to an independent or two missing out last weekend, as UIP would know it takes more than
just increasing screens on a film featuring Knightley to channel another Bend it
Like Beckham.
Still, Pride and Prejudice is doing well in its own right. The Austen adaptation passed the likes of Sideways and Elektra over the weekend for position 40 on 2005 list. Last weekend it was tracking just 1% behind Closer, whilst this weekend it's now tracking 5% ahead. Pride's third weekend decline was a sight better than the Law-Owen flick's 47% dip. Failing to convert as many it's cause, Pride is now tracking 10% behind current nemesis In Her Shoes, out from last weekend's 7% smaller pace, whilst it's now 12% ahead of Kate and Leopold, a small change from 15% last weekend. Pride and Prejudice opens this weekend in the U.S., so comparisons still aren't available. It's only fair that since we ran for Wolf Creek that we compare Pride to its U.K. performance. After three weeks of play it's tracking 38% behind^ in Australia, out from last weekend's 31% smaller^ pace and the 32% smaller^ opening weekend. The film was off by 24% in weekends two and three in the U.K. 
Last weekend's chart topper Doom failed to keep the flame burning in its second weekend,
falling from first to fourth. Although the film was off by 56%, high on almost any scale, there was every reason to assume
it would fall harder. It would appear to have held exceptionally well, given that Wolf Creek was gunning for a
similar audience. Did Wolf's R-rating both hinder itself and assist Doom? Collecting $0.64m, The Rock and
Karl Urban-starring adaptation now has $2.56m.
The second weekend decline for Doom was largely expected, all despite the film shredding 73% of its audience in its second frame in the U.S. Why? Precedent in Star Trek: Nemesis told us it would more than likely be under 60%. While soft times at the box office do mean smaller openings, they walk hand in hand with better holds. Compared to the UIP/Paramount transporter error, Doom is tracking 12% ahead, up from the 7% better bow. Doom is already approaching the $2.7m and $3m respective finals of Resident Evil and its sequel. Compared to the U.S. pace, Doom is now tracking 11% ahead* in Australia, a sharp turnaround from the 6% softer* opening last weekend. Of course, when you have a 56% drop you're going to make up some serious ground against a market that, almost comically, was down 73%. That drop was precipitated by Saw II's arrival in its second weekend, which proved to be twice as strong as Doom's bow the weekend before, whereas in Australia, Doom had a much weaker opponent to fend off. 
Great holds have proven to be In Her Shoes' forte, with its 32% fourth-weekend
showing the best in the top ten. Down one slot from fourth to fifth, the Fox film's holding power continues to impress
even though it shed its highest percentage to date. Collecting $0.64m, In Her Shoes now has a campaign tally of
$6.40m. The brings the sisterly dependant flick up past Closer and
The Island on the 2005 chart.
Compared to Miss Congeniality 2, In Her Shoes is tracking 12% behind after four weeks, almost unchanged from the 13% margin last weekend. The Bullock sequel stumbled from here, which gives In Her Shoes a great chance of catching up this weekend. For Cameron Diaz, In Her Shoes is tracking 2% ahead of 2003's Gangs of New York, whilst for Toni Collette is now 37% ahead of The Hours, down from 40%. In Her Shoes should be able to creep past them both for just over $8m. Compared to the U.S. pace, In Her Shoes is now tracking 119% up in Australia after four weeks, up on the 107% better* pace of last weekend. The fourth weekend rise was assisted by a spectacularly stronger showing, up 272% on the comparative U.S. session. - The Exorcism of Emily Rose gave Sony no release in weekend two, off 40%. Although the Laura Linney-Tom Wilkinson flick had the potential to hold well, viewers opted for new product instead. Collecting $0.57m, Emily Rose now has a soft $1.86m. Opening on par with Final Destination 2 last weekend, Emily Rose is now tracking 4% behind. That sequel was off by only 27%. Compared to the U.S. pace, Emily Rose is tracking 64% down* in Australia, slightly up on last weekend's 69% smaller opening. - The 40 Year Old Virgin saw a 36% decline in its fifth weekend, following the its trend of falling a touch more with each passing weekend, although the falls continue to be well restrained. Collecting $486k, the Steve Carroll flick now has $8.05m. The 40 Year Old Virgin is tracking 11% behind the U.S. pace after five weekend, unchanged from last weekend. A retention of that margin would see it finish with just over $9m in Australia. - Into The Blue again saw a ray or two shine down on an otherwise rained-out theatrical run, down only 37%. The Walker-Alba flick which saved untold production costs on a limited wardrobe of handkerchiefs collected $372k through the weekend. The film's current total of $2.52m is now 46% ahead* of the comparative U.S. pace. The third weekend frame was 114% better* in Australia. - The third new film of the weekend to make to cut was Stay. The Ewan McGregor, Ryan Gosling and Naomi Watts starring feature about a professor who moves to help a student considering ending his life opened with a quite poor $201k. Averaging a severely anemic $1,675 from its 120 screens, Fox should have either given the film a stronger push or opened on far less screens, either way an average such as this is unjustified. - Cinderella Man lost its first bout of its campaign in round six, down 53% for $146k. However, thanks to five spirited weeks beforehand, the Russell Crowe flick has $5.76m in the bank. That's good enough to see it remain 1% ahead* of the U.S. pace, although it might sink back down upon the end of its run. The top 20 films collected $6.80m over the weekend, down 11.9% of last weekend and down 26.3% on this weekend from Last Year when Hero opened with $2.26m ahead of fellow newbie The Forgotten with $1.48m and the third weekend of the solid holder Shall We Dance with $1.43m. The weekend was down a large 42.8% on Two Years Ago when The Matrix Revolutions commanded a massive $8.03m ahead of Intolerable Cruelty's third frame of $0.89m. Weekend Coming 10th - 13th October 2005 
It should be the biggest release of the month. BVI hope to take the skies with Jodie Foster and have her power their new
thriller Flightplan to their fifth number one weekend of the year. Directed by German native Robert Schwentke in
his first large scale Hollywood production, Flightplan co-stars Peter Sarsgaard and Sean Bean. This big-screen
outing for Foster is similar in theme to her Panic Room, which arrived around two and a half years ago, reuniting
the actress to that same sub-genre of mother-frantic-daughter-thriller. Flightplan follows a mother who boards a
flight with her daughter from Germany to London. She wakes up throughout the flight to find that her daughter his left her
seat. Upon searching, she is eventually told by the crew that her daughter never boarded, indeed, her daughter is dead.
Unable to accept that she's suffering some sort of post-traumatic stress from her loss, she embarks on a mission of search
and hassle to unravel the elaborate network of lies standing between her and her daughter.
Flightplan was released in the U.S. seven weeks ago with a number-one worthy $US24.6m in late September, beating out the equally impressive $US19.1m first wide weekend of Tim Burton's Corpse Bride. The BV release has held on very well, averaging a decline rate of just 32% through the next six weeks of release and was off just 16% this last weekend. With a current cume of $US84.7m, Flightplan is looking to close its U.S. run with around $US90m. That would bring it in just under the $US96.4m of Sony's Panic Room, again teasingly shy of becoming her fourth $US100m film after Silence of the Lambs, Maverick and Contact. The average Australian filmgoer knows what to expect from Jodie Foster. Indeed, as an actress, there's very few working today who would earn more respect in this craft than Foster, but that doesn't always translate to box office success. People may frequently acknowledge she has the required acting chops to tackle any picture, but like any other actor, they'll only draw in a crowd if it's the right project. The actress has only anchored two films over $10m in Australia, with her 2002 flick Panic Room counting as one of the two, with relatively few of her other releases causing any real stir at the box office. The 2002 flick opened with a fine $2.61m in Australia, topping fellow newbie The Time Machine, and going on to earn $10.58m. The was good enough to pass the $8.86m of 1994's Maverick but fell short of her high-water mark Silence of the Lambs, which devoured $14.04m in 1991. Flightplan is a certainty for top spot this weekend, and it should convert handsomely as it's facing a similar level of muted competition locally that it successfully overcame in the U.S. Panic Room scored its $2.6m opening in Australia in 2002 against two $1.6m contenders in slots two and three. It's doubtful that either holdovers or its new competition will get close to that mark, freeing up Flightplan's potential audience. A $2.6m opening for Flightplan would also see it challenge BVI's own Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, currently the distributor's largest opener of 2005 with $2.68m. 
Four Brothers enters the market hoping to pull an action crowd more satisfied by guys busting ribs than mothers in
a tizz. Starring Mark Whalberg, Andre Benjamin, Garrett Hedlund and Tyrese Gibson, Four Brothers was directed by
modern-day action maestro John Singleton (Shaft, 2 Fast 2 Furious), and is therefore heavy on the attitude.
Four Brothers tells the story of four foster children, who each reunite to find out who killed their mother and
make the fool pay.
Four Brothers opened in the U.S. back in August with a highly explosive $US21.2m, a safe number one ahead of the $US16.1m of fellow newbie Skeleton Key. Holding power for the flick was good, averaging 41% declines in the 10 weeks before cheapo expansion and collecting $US74.3m. The run was similar to both Training Day, which opened with $US22.6m and closed with $US76.6m and Singleton's own Shaft, which bowed to $US21.7m on its way to $US70.3m. On the pure revenge front it wasn't too far behind the $US21.2m opening and $US81.5m final of Gibson's Payback. After his three $US100m flicks, Italian Job, Perfect Storm and Planet of the Apes, Four Brothers ranks as Whalberg's next best, topping the $US60.6m that Three Kings collected in 1999. UIP/Paramount would love nothing more than a number one from this, but Four Brothers just doesn't have the same kind of audience-friendly appeal of Flightplan. The film of course is mainly sold on Whalberg, who's done well in gritty action flicks. In 2000 Three Kings scored an impressive $1.67m opening and finished with $8.08m, 33% better* than the U.S. final. Shaft opened in Australia in 2000 with $1.68m while Training Day opened with $1.41m. The Jackson and Washington ass-kicking flicks closed with $5.22m and $5.15m respectively. It's likely that those figures are an upper limit of Four Brothers' potential. Four Brothers would hope to pass the $1.19m of XXX2, but might come in under Training Day, with $1.2m this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |