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Weekend 3rd - 6th October 2002
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Austin Powers In Goldmember managed to spend a third week on top of the box office through what was another
exceptional weekend, reflected just as brightly by the mid-week's previous three days Monday through Wednesday. As with
last week, the Mike Myers film became the first film in seven weeks to spend three weeks on top of the charts, although
that event hasn't been a rare one this year with no less than six films spending three weeks in the number one spot for a
total of 18 weeks out of the 39 so far this year. Depending on how many people come out in support of Tom Hanks and Greek
Weddings this weekend, Austin and his pals have a chance of joining Ocean's Eleven as one of two films to spend four
weeks at number one, although Goldmember's stay would be consecutive. As with most films five weeks old or younger,
Austin Powers In Goldmember benefited greatly from the only week and weekend where the whole country, excluding Tas,
was enjoying the school holiday break. Down a groovy 26% in its third weekend, the weekend take of $2.34 million, combined
with an awesome 3 day mid week take of $1.87 million, Goldmember has raised its cume to $15 million.
The third weekend take was almost again spot on with the third weekend take of the second instalment, Austin Powers:
The Spy Who Shagged Me, which fell by an eerily similar 29% for $2.30 million. At that stage, the induction of Mini-Me
had helped the popular sequel swell to $14.3 million in the same amount of time, giving Goldmember a 4.8% edge, up
from the 1.2% lead it scored last weekend. The main reason for Goldmember's bump has been those mid week figures, up
33% on the same period in 1999 for Spy, in which it collected $1.40 million. Proven wrong this week with Goldmember's
very strong hold, next week may be the one that sees Goldmember fall behind Spy, which only dipped 27% in week
four, as the absence of the holiday period in the second and third most populous states in the country is bound to have an
effect. After consistently running behind the pace of Men In Black II thanks to that film opening a day earlier,
Goldmember has finally turned the tables from being 94% behind last weekend to be 2% ahead this weekend. It's current
trajectory means Goldmember will easily surpass the $17.5 million of Men In Black, but it will still probably
come in under the $22.3 million of Spy. Just pressing through the $20 million mark does seem likely now.
Compared to the U.S. performance of Goldmember, as predicted the Australian performance of the third Mike Myers take
on British spy films has improved to now stand 10.1% behind* the U.S. pace. This is up from last weekend when it stood a
more distant 28.8% behind the U.S. pace. The third weekend take in Australia was up a massive* 80% on the comparable
weekend in the U.S. where heavy competition from the onset of xXx and the second weekend of Signs cut the
take by 58% from the weekend before.
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Amazing results were also sought in second place where the second weekend of the The Bourne Identity delivered a
solid result almost dislodging Goldmember from the top spot. The Matt Damon thriller in which Jason Bourne loses
his memory as a result of a botched mission, and then must overcome attempts to kill him from his own government as he
tries to rediscover who he is has scored tremendous word of mouth coming off its solid opening. Down only 19%, the Franka
Potente co-starring adaptation gathered a terrific second weekend haul of $2.25 million, upping its cume to a
great $6.62 million in only 11 days. The $1.43 million that The Bourne Identity collect through the 3 day mid week
period counted towards 38% of the weekly seven day take, roughly the same, but just under the 42% of the week the 3 days
represent in time, very good considering adult films are tremendously weekend skewed, even through the school holidays.
After just 11 days of release, the power of The Bourne Identity is shown in reflection to The Sum Of All Fears,
which after six weeks and close to the end of its run, has collected $5.72 million. Not exactly a fair comparison now,
although it was a fair match up in the U.S. Upon opening, The Bourne Identity was an exact match for this years
Tom Cruise sci-fi flick Minority Report, a film which also held incredibly well in its second weekend, down just
18%. Despite its great performance during what was also a school holiday period, it played second fiddle to the more family
friendly fare of the occasion, at the moment being Scooby-Doo. After 11 days, The Bourne Identity is running
9.4% ahead of Minority Report, which went on to earn a promising final total of $11.76 million. A good total for
the Matt Damon actioner to aspire to.
Compared to the U.S., The Bourne Identity has improved upon last week which saw an opening just 2.2% up* on the U.S.
launch to now stand a very decent 21.9% ahead of the pace after 11 days. The second weekend itself was off a high 44%, but
the film did steady from here on out in the US. Comparing second weekend takings, the Australian take was a healthy 50%
stronger* than that of the U.S. Mid-week wise however, The Bourne Identity was a slimmer 18% ahead* of the U.S.
through what is comparing four day figures to three day figures. But we do that every week to Australia's advantage when
comparing weekend figures. If The Bourne Identity goes on to collect close to that of Minority Report, it will
then also end up very close* to that of the final take it achieved in the U.S.
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Perhaps the star performer of the weekend was the Disney animated flick Lilo And Stitch. Leaping ahead of
expectations to take full advantage of the (almost) nationwide holiday break, the film was able to record its fourth straight
weekly increase. Rising 25% in its fifth weekend for its largest take to date, the film was able to collect a rosy cheeked
$2.2 million as it added another 7 screens to bring its count up to 304. With $9.4 million in the bank to date, the film
will have smashed through the $10 million mark by Monday the 8th, which was a public holiday in four states. Most of the
money that was collected by Lilo And Stitch was through the 3 day mid week period where business was absolutely
frenetic. Unlike the U.S. summer holidays where weekend days are always responsible for the major portion of weekly takings,
the mid week Monday through Wednesday, and Thursdays, which bumps up the weekend figures, are the prime days for families
to frequent these types of films when school holidays are in force. Because of this, Lilo And Stitch was able to
collect scorching figures of around $0.8 million on Monday alone and close to $0.7 million on each of Tuesday and Wednesday
last week for a three day cume of $2.2 million, which, as you would have notices equals the four day weekend figure. This
is 50% of the weekly take, much higher than the 38% mid-week collection of The Bourne Identity and the 44% of
Goldmember.
The week and weekend past will certainly be Lilo And Stitch's largest, as business in Vic and Qld will drop off
dramatically through the week, and will be down, although not as drastically, through the weekend. Although Lilo And Stitch
will see its first decline since release, its projected final total will now still be more than anyone would have
originally thought. At least when you examine the animated films that have been stand out performers in Australia, they have
usually been absolute blockbusters in the U.S., for instance The Lion King, Aladdin and to a lesser extent
in both countries, but still good, Tarzan. Lilo And Stitch has been a good performer in the U.S., but looking
at precedents, certainly not successful enough to indicate that the film was headed for a $10 million plus performance in
Australia. Lilo And Stitch looks set to run past the $11.4 million final of Tarzan for something closer to
a Dinosaur equalling $13.5 million.
Compared to the U.S. performance, Lilo And Stitch is now currently tracking 26.5% behind* the U.S. pace in Australia
after its five week period, coming back with a vengeance after tracking 35% behind* last weekend and 43% behind* the
weekend before.
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Cementing a carbon copy of the top four films from last weekend was the fourth place finish of Stuart Little 2. In
its fifth weekend, the expensive yet unsuccessful sequel was again reflective of the general pace of Lilo and Stitch,
up 32% from last weekend for $1.68 million, again for what will be the largest weekend take of its career. Stuart Little
2 has been doing ok in Australia, or at least thanks to the weekend just gone and the 3 days before that, the film
has upped its cume to a good $7.33 million. Probably not as much as could have been conceived by Colombia when talking about
the first film as a precedent, but certainly great when talking about a potential mirror performance of the U.S. run.
Compared to the U.S., Stuart Little 2 is running a healthy 28.5% ahead* after five weeks, reversing the difference
from being 24.5% behind* last weekend.
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Of the two new entries in the charts over the weekend, it was Reign of Fire the did the best, managing a top five
finish. Starring Christian Bale and Matthew McConaughey, the film follows a group of people trying to outlive a dragon
infestation of the planet as another bunch roll up with a few ideas to wipe them out. As the leaders of each philosophy
push their conflicting ideas forward, the constant threat of dragon attacks and their hatred towards them is their only
uniting grace. Launching on a medium 162 screens, Reign of Fire collected $1.07 million for an ok average of $6,655
per nest. The opening is very similar to this years other genre film of a similar nature, Resident Evil, which
opened only $60,000 weaker. The Milla Jovovich starring zombie actioner had poor holding power, going on to collect a very
mild $2.55 million. Reign of Fire has the advantage at least of a week of holidays and should eventually end up
with around $3.5 million.
Compared to the U.S., the opening stands a sizable 31.4% behind* the pace of what was a fairly mediocre bow in the U.S.
The film was a major disappointment for Buena Vista and went on to earn an equivalent* $4.2 million in stateside.
Compared to my opening weekend predictions of Reign of Fire, it was spot on with my $1 million estimate.
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The Vin Diesel action flick xXx is continuing to impress, at least with its box office performance as the film
managed a terrific fourth week hold, off just 7%. The film has been able to use the holidays to its advantage with great
effect, collecting $0.96 million, raising its cume to a substantial $9.14 million. After being 6.2% behind the pace of last
years The Fast and The Furious last weekend, xXx has reduced that to almost nothing to stand a miniscule
0.3% behind after four weeks. The testosterone filled street racing pic suffered another large fall in its fifth weekend,
so xXx should be able to get ahead then. The $10.2 million final tally shouldn't be hard to pass for xXx
now, and a final total of closer to $10.5 million seems likely. After Lilo and Stitch, xXx should become
the 15th $10 million plus earner of the year if it can beat The Bourne Identity to that mark.
- After experiencing a steep fall in its second weekend and then a rise last weekend, Crocodile Hunter has steadied
again to rise another 20% through its fourth lap. The Steve Irwin starring picture collected $0.49 million for a $3 million
cume that has all of a sudden become mildly respectable. After being 13% behind* the U.S. pace last weekend, Crocodile
Hunter has leapfrogged ahead* of the U.S. pace to stand 17.6% ahead* after four weeks.
- In eighth place the local production Garage Days starring Kick Gurry and Pia Miranda about a band trying to make
it to the big time could only manage an $0.4 million debut. It seems its target audience was distracted by other films,
either didn't care or were unaware of the film. Possibly a combination as the strength of other product combined with
negative reviews and a rather usual and dull advertising campaign could have led to a lot of indifference with the film.
Opening on a medium 160 screens, the average of $2,561 per theatre was a far cry from the $1.2 million launch and solid
$7,214 average of Gurry and Miranda's 2000 success Looking For Alibrandi. The film needed to have opened two weeks
ago to have had any real chance at longevity and may find it hard to reach a $1.8 million final tally. Surely a
disappointment for those involved and for anyone who would have predicted the film to open with the same fire as the
dragon film, the $0.4 million earned was less than half the predicted $1 million.
- The B-grade creature flick Eight Legged Freaks managed to keep its decline below 50%, off a moderate 39% despite
appalling word of mouth and an extremely disappointing opening. The holiday skew over the weekend saw a salvaging $0.36
million added to its total which now stands at an anaemic $1.3 million. The pic will disappear from the top twenty before
its fourth weekend and should finish with a poor $1.8 million.
- Al Pacino should be able to get a rest next weekend, but for now he's still roaming the top ten with his crime drama
Insomnia. Off a medium 31% in its fifth weekend, the Robin Williams co-starring feature added $0.22 million to
its cume which stands at a passable $4.9 million.
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The top 20 films made $12.8 million over the weekend, up 4.7% from last weekend but down 7.9% on this weekend last year
when the holidays allowed the family flick Cats and Dogs to finally rule the box office in its third weekend of
release, up 12% for a take of $2.69 million. Rush Hour 2 dipped an acceptable 35% for second place with the number
one and number two films going on to earn $16.5 and $12.7 million respectively. The weekend was up an amazing 141.5% on
this weekend two years ago when a band of codgers lead Space Cowboys to open at number one with a so-so $1.13
million in what was an extremely depressed marketplace.
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Weekend Coming - Weekend 10th - 13th October 2002
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Leading out the new national openers this weekend is the Tom Hanks gangster themed flick Road To Perdition. Also
starring Paul Newman, Jennifer Jason Leigh and Jude Law, the Dreamworks/Fox collaboration was directed by Sam Mendes of
American Beauty fame and adapted from the popular graphic novel of the same name. The story follows hit man Mike
Sullivan (not to be confused with Mike and Sully), who works as a hitman for the man who raised him as his son. Mike's
devotion to his work is paralleled by the love of his family, but when his young son follows him along to a job it has
dire consequences and the family he loves pays the price. Mike and his son survive, but from then on they must evade a
hit man hired to finish them off while at the same time driven to exact revenge on those who have wronged him. The film
has been touted as a sure fire Oscar contender next year due mainly to the people behind the film. Its studio also had
faith in the films box office potential, releasing the film with an expectation that word of mouth combined with a weekly
increase in its screen count would provide a long run with low weekly declines.
Road To Perdition has been a good performer, although not stand out in the U.S., opening with a solid $US22 million
on top of the charts and did experience good holding power going on to collect $US104 million towards the end of its run.
The holding power was good, but not spectacular for a film from an Oscar winning director and two time winning Best Actor
and its final tally, at least through its initial release could be considered down on expectations. If the title performs
well at the Oscars, there's a chance that it may have a second run, but usually when films have been released earlier the
year before, they don't do well on a second outing, as opposed to current film expanding on their first run through March.
Budgeted at $US80 million, the title has never the less become yet another $US100+ earner for Hanks, reaffirming that he
is still one of the most bankable box office draws.
Road To Perdition will be the highest official national opener this weekend, although it may have a run for its
money from My Big Fat Greek Wedding which will be aiming to add a few dollars to its cume through highly publicized
preview screenings before it opens in two weeks time. Road To Perdition will have a leggy run in Australia, but it
will not be able to score an opening weekend high enough to unsettle the top performers from the weekend just gone. Trailers
for the Road To Perdition have been playing for months, probably too many months, so there’s a good chance if you've
been to see a movie you know about the film. Like in the U.S., the Hanks name will get people through the door in Australia,
and the heavy hitting content of the film is in contrast to many of the comedies out at the moment. That will be a good
thing for some people wanting more serious adult fare, so that market will be out in support of Perdition. Opening
with solid, but unspectacular numbers, Road To Perdition may open with around $1.9 million this weekend.
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Also opening is the Jesse Bradford and Erika Christensen teenage thriller Swimfan. Directed by Australian John
Polson (Siam Sunset), the film has regularly been referred to as a teenage version of Fatal Attraction. This
time out the films resident crazy girl, Madison, has a crush on all round good guy and swimming champ Ben. After a one night
stand, she insists on becoming a part of his life while at the same time his rejections result in Madison eliminating all
obstacles. Unlike the film will do in Australia, Swimfan opened at number one in the U.S. upon its release, although
that was during a fairly slow weekend, collecting $US11.3 million. The Fox film was budgeted at a tiny $US5 million and has
gone on to earn a profitable $US28 million after five weeks of play. In Australia, Swimfan has been plugged well on
the big screen and its distributor has taken the liberty of milking its U.S. number one opening for all its worth in its
advertising spots. With words thrown in like "blockbuster" and "smash hit", its not only the film's resident mad-woman
skewing events and truths for profit. Swimfan is aimed squarely at the teenage market, and besides the all
encompassing Austin Powers, Swimfan is the first film just for them. Stars and director mean little to
nothing as far as people wanting to see this film goes - its all about concept. Its always fun to laugh at crazy people, so
Swimfan may open with around $1.2 million this weekend.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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