Weekend 4th - 7th November 2004
It took a combination of Let Li and Julianne Moore to finally convince the judges to pass the box office crown on to a new
entrant in a competition that for the last two weeks was decidedly a Gere and Lopez dominated event. Hero, the
Chinese financed and produced flick about an ancient Chinese legend that tells of a warriors quest to assassinate an emperor
opened at the top of the pack with a very fine $2.25 million. The opening falls in the relatively modest position of 175th
best of all time in Australia and the 23rd highest of the year so far. Opening on a slim to medium 165 screens, Hero
averaged a fantastic $13,689, the highest number one average since The Bourne Supremacy collected $15,642 ten
weeks ago.
The number one opening for Hero matches the placing the film managed in the U.S. back in August where, as in Australia this weekend, competition isn't too fierce. The film was expected to do well in Australia, but looking elsewhere around the world, specifically the U.K., results could have suggested a more subdued opening. Released in late September, Hero managed only $US6.2 million in Blighty, pretty poor, ranking a lowly 55th best for the year to date, and that will dip as the year progresses. So what does the future hold for Hero? It has opened slightly below the $2.46 million of the recent Collateral and just ahead of the $2.18 million of January's Welcome To The Jungle. Both action films, they have seen vastly different holding power. The Cruise flick has maintained mid-30's dips while The Rock flick averaged mid-40 declines and finished with $7.54 million - that's what Collateral has after four weeks. Hero did ok in the U.S., though despite the obvious comparable theme it was no Crouching Tiger. Hero's opening handily passed the $1.55 million of 2002's The One which was before now the best of his post-Lethal Weapon U.S. vehicles. Hero will be close that films $4.40 million final after next weekend. Compared to the U.S. opening, Hero's Australian launch comes in a very decent 25% better*. Adding in the small quota of Australian previews it stands 26% ahead*. The opening is better* that what was considered a very strong U.S. opening, giving local distributor BVI Miramax two reasons to be very happy with this and Shall We Dance both excelling. Hero didn't hold exceptionally well in the U.S., so next week will tell if results will be closer to those of Jungle or Collateral. Compared to be opening weekend forecast, Hero's debut was a good deal stronger than my $1.3 million prediction. 
Although reviewers are loving the pun, we can't really forget about Julianne Moore's part in removing Jenny and Richard
from the top spot. It was a close call though, as the film about a woman who seemingly has the life of her son and her
family erased from existence snuck into second position by only $50K. The Forgotten, co-starring Anthony Edwards
opened with $1.48 million over the weekend with an average of $7,421 from each of its evenly counted 200 screens. The
Forgotten was the highest new film in position two since Fahrenheit 9/11 opened with $1.64 million last
August in second place, however trivial the fact.
The opening for The Forgotten is almost identical to Columbia Tristar's August flick Hellboy, coming in only $1,132 lower. The Ron Pearlman comic adaptation collected only $3.5 million in the end. Provided it can achieve a little better holding power, The Forgotten finds a better comparison in the similarly themed Gothika, which opened with $1.61 million in April and held on for $4.61 million all up. Today the opening for The Forgotten stands 8.3% behind the Halle Berry starrer. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Forgotten's opening comes in 29% lower* in Australia. Opening with brilliant figures in the U.S., The Forgotten has averaged some fine holding power as well which has also surprised. Perhaps fuelled bu idiotic review quotes that it's as good as The Sixth Sense, The Forgotten became another hit for offshoot Sony Revolution. Compared to be opening weekend forecast, The Forgotten's launch also comes in stronger than my prediction, which this time around was $0.9 million. 
Falling two positions from its two week reign atop the charts was the darling of the charts Shall We Dance. While
The Notebook continues to take the chart's weekly decline honours, the Gere, Sarandon and Lopez dancing drama
has been to keep its cumulative total rising by combining good holds with all important million plus weekend figures.
Through its third weekend Shall We Dance collected a handsome $1.43 million, off just 17% for a fantastic running
total of $6.88 million.
Shall We Dance is already the 32nd highest grossing movie of 2004, and should pass its rank of 26th highest opening by next weekend. Shall We Dance opened alongside The Stepford Wives three weeks ago but has already passed the Kidman films $6.29 million final. It'll also trump Mona Lisa Smile's $7.87 million next weekend too. Compared to Lopez's Main In Manhattan, Shall We Dance is now tracking 0.5% ahead after three weeks, again a nice jump from last weekend's 12.3% negative pace. Manhattan's $8.80 million final should be attainable by next Friday with a view to $10 million not to far after that. Compared to the U.S. pace, Shall We Dance is now tracking a tremendous 103% ahead* in Australia, up yet again on last weekends brilliant 95% positive* margin. To reiterate last weekend's point, Shall We Dance has stabilized after a softer opening, off by only 26% through its third weekend. However, the third weekend itself was still a powerful 131% better* in Australia due to both the much better* local start and better local holding power. Locally, can Shall We Dance better the great 10% dip that it recorded in the U.S. through weekend four, this weekend coming? 
It's certainly a weekend of good holds when down the chart in position nine a film like Resident Evil: Apocalypse
can manage to drop less than 50%. The chart wide low falls helped give a lustre of sorts to The Manchurian Candidate
as the Denzel Washington film's 29% second weekend drop looks far better on paper than last weekend's soft opening.
Collecting $0.70 million, The Manchurian Candidate's 11 day cume again isn't as impressive as its second weekend
decline, now $2.08 million.
Last weekend The Manchurian Candidate opened 13.8% behind his 2001 flick Remember The Titans. This weekend its tracking 15.8% behind despite having a slightly lower second weekend decline than Titans' 31% fall. Last weekend Manchurian opened 21.5% lower than 2002's John Q with previews included, but 17% better without them. Although this weekend it's now tracking just 1.8% behind. That bodes well for Manchurian to pass Q's poor $3.31 million total, although it probably won't be by much. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Manchurian Candidate is now tracking 45% lower* in Australia. This is down from last weekend's 50% lower* opening weekend. The second weekend frame was 31% lower* in Australia when compared to the second U.S. frame, better than last weekends 50% negative* difference, as in the U.S. the film crumbled 49%. 
In position five was the Tom Cruise action flick Collateral. The four week old film was down another resiliant 34%
from last weekend, keeping its declines within the 30% range. Collecting $0.66 million, Collateral has upped its
total to a fine $7.39 million. This has moved Collateral up to position 14 on Cruise's list of releases, just behind
Eyes Wide Shut's $7.47 million. This weekend Collateral is standing 11.1% behind the four weekend pace of
Dodgeball, out from last weekend's 4.3% negative track. Compared to the U.S. pace, Collateral in now running
8% behind* in Australia, steady from last weekend's 9% lower* pace.
Worth a quick mention in position number six was The Notebook. In its fourth weekend the triangled romance was off
a super slim 10%. Collecting $0.60 million, the Ryan Gosling starring drama has upped its cume to a Tuscan thumping
$4.60 million. This puts The Notebook 7.8% ahead of where the February Diane Lane drama was after weekend four,
ramping up from the 3.8% lead from last weekend. Under The Tuscan Sun was off a higher 28% through weekend four for
$435K. At this rate The Notebook will have no trouble passing its $6.04 million final. Compared to the U.S. pace,
The Notebook is still tracking 14% behind* in Australia, unchanged from last weekend due to its similarly slim
13% fourth weekend dip in the U.S. last July.
The top 20 films collected $9.23 million over the weekend, up 23.5% from last weekend but down 22.3% from this weekend last year when the box office was ignited - although temporarily - by an $8.03 million debut from the final Matrix entry The Matrix Revolutions. The weekend was up 28.3% on this weekend from two years ago when My Big Fat Greek Wedding was tops again for the fourth weekend in a row with $2.26 million. Weekend Coming 11th - 14th November 2004 
The hotly anticipated sequel Bridget Jones: Edge of Reason hit theatres this weekend, and there can be no denying
that its going to draw in the audiences. Like the original or not, it was a monster hit upon release that served only
to increase the awareness and popularity that began with the novel. All of the major cast is back, including a re-beefed
Renee Zellweger and her two love interests Colin Firth and Hugh Grant. The story revloves around something to do with
Bridget and her ever complicated relationships - pretty much the same thing as the first one.
The film has yet to be releases in the U.S. and the U.K., although it had some previews throughout Britain last Friday and Saturday, with more previews due Thursday before the official Friday release. This leaves the Australian market as the first territory to enjoy the release of Bridget Jones: Edge of Reason, at least officially, the local release is 11 hours ahead of Thursday's British previews and therefore 35 hours ahead of the official U.K. release. In Australia, Bridget Jones's Diary opened with a massive $3.92 million, still the 58th biggest opening of all time in Australia. Counting in the tasty $2.03 million in previews from the weekend before and it was out of the gates with $5.98 million. It was a start good enough to eventually see the film garner a robust $22.40 million for position 41 on the all time Australian chart, enough to trump other British mega-hits like Notting Hill and Four Weddings and A Funeral which collected $20.83 million and $21.47 million respectively. Despite the huge success in Australia, that total left Bridget Jones's Diary standing 22% weaker^ in Australia than in the U.K. where it fetched $US60.43 million. Compared to the U.S. though, Diary finished a massive 213% ahead*. There's obviously an extended life to the series unlike the other British comedies that were mentioned previously. Bridget has become something of a national institution in the U.K. and the huge pre-release interest in Bridget Jones: Edge of Reason is proof of it. For better or worse, it filters down to Australia too. Aside from the two uber-openers of the year that lead the count, all other films to bow over $4 million have been testosterone driven flicks, so it could be time for an estrogen supplement. The best to qualify in that category for 2004 would be Adam Sandler's 50 First Dates, ranking in position 16 at the moment, Dates opened with $2.91 million last March. Bridget Jones' built in audience should assure a bigger opening than that, and you'd think it could double an opening by Along Came Polly on any weekend. Edge of Reason should be able to top the opening of Diary this weekend if only be default. Similar levels of interest and no previews for Reason mean no depletion of clientele from the opening frame. Bridget Jones: Edge of Reason will take command of the charts this weekend with a $4.6 million opening. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |