The Weekend Comments Page

Weekend 4th - 7th September 2003

After a stunning debut last weekend, Australia's new favourite film, Finding Nemo, enjoyed what may be considered one of, if not the most amazing second weekend of all time this country has ever seen. The BVI distributed Pixar creation saw its takings dip by just 26%, adding a massive $5.98 million to its running cume, which now stands at a towering $15.89 million from just 11 days of play.

Looking at Finding Nemo's second weekend. After the ninth best opening of all time last weekend, the story about a fish, his friend and his struggle to find his son scored the fifth best second weekend of all time. That may not sound like much of an improvement, so why would Finding Nemo be worthy of the title of the best second weekend performance? When compared to the likes of the current number one, The Phantom Menace, its second weekend take of $7.59 million was taken through a holiday frame, and with a debut not all that different from Nemo, it's second non-holiday weekend could arguably be dollar for dollar as impressive. Looking at the other films in the top ten second weekends, Twister's rise of 3% also stands out, although it wasn't a $6 million plus opener. All the other film's in the list were $9 million plus openers and fell by around 40% or more, most around 50%. To be unaffected by a holiday period, Finding Nemo may be the first uber-opener to have what is truly considered a highly regarded hold.

Prospects in the weeks ahead are just as promising. Ruling the number one position through the highest third weekend through to the highest sixth weekend are family films, with Stuart Little, Shrek and Harry Potter enjoying their family fuelled reigns. With Finding Nemo scoring universal praise and the school holidays ahead, the fish tale is certainly a solid candidate to be smashing records for the next four weeks.

Last weekend, Finding Nemo was tracking a minor 7.5% ahead of where Shrek was after its first weekend, with the green guy having had two weekends of previews to its advantage. However its dip of just 8% through its second weekend means little, Finding Nemo is now tracking 26% ahead, so now it is a sure question of when, not if Finding Nemo will pass its $32 million. With such a hot pace, it's now not overly ambitious to begin comparing its pace to that of 2001's behemoth, Harry Potter. Enjoying unprecedented hype, Harry Potter was strong out of the gates and took with a Christmas/New Years holiday period that gave the film amazing longevity. Although Finding Nemo didn't arrive with the same hype, the sheer respect a Pixar film carries is reflective of its opening and a holiday boost along the lines of what Potter produced is looking likely.

Opening 13% lower than Potter last weekend, Finding Nemo's second frame was 14.2% better, allowing the film to stand 8.3% behind after 11 days. Although it had a better second weekend, mid-week wise Harry Potter collected $2.92 million compared to Nemo's $1.87 million. Generally if a film is more loaded through the weekend, it means that adults are making up a high percentage of the audience. Potter's strength through the week indicates its family strength through that time. This is encouraging for Nemo, as its built in mid-week family audience, many of whom are out seeing the film now, will be waiting and have more time to see it once the September holidays arrive.

Compared to the U.S. pace, Finding Nemo is tracking 10.3% ahead*, down from the 16.4% lead* it had after last weekend. Although the second weekend itself was 26.5% better* than its clocked in the U.S. through its second, where it was off 34%, it's the mid-week takings that account for the difference. Having enjoyed the summer holiday period through its first mid-week frame, it collected a comparative $2.72 million in the U.S., far excelling the $1.87 million it earned in Australia.

The Italian Job fought off two new openers to retain second place in its third weekend, although in the end it didn't really have to fight too hard. The Mark Whalberg, Charlize Theron and Edward Norton starring film about a group of safe hijackers getting their own back on a partner who betrayed them was off by another moderate 31%, adding $1.26 million to its total. The Italian Job's total now stands at a very healthy $8.07 million.

Last weekend The Italian Job was tracking 5.3% behind last years The Bourne Identity, although this weekend, despite the good hold it has dipped to stand 11% behind. Although The Bourne Identity was off by a larger 39% through the same weekend, its third weekend take of $1.38 million was 9% better than The Italian Jobs. With declines consistently in the 30% range, The Italian Job may just be able to keep the distance from here on in relatively close, that is if this weekend Pirates doesn't harm it too much before the holidays arrive.

Compared to the U.S. pace, The Italian Job is now tracking a very hot 45.6% ahead* in Australia of where it was in the U.S. after the same period of time. Admittedly this is down from the 56.6% advantage it had after the close of its second weekend, although this stabilization was expected given the much better launch it enjoyed in Australia. The third weekend itself however was 31.8% better* here than in the U.S., where the third weekend was off a mild 27%.

Opening in third place over the weekend, with a debut that was far less then expected, was the British horror film 28 Days Later. The Danny Boyle directed tale about a virus that turns those infected into wild killers, which then in turn wipes out almost the entire population of the UK was able to scare up $0.7 million over the weekend. Starring Cillian Murphy and Naomie Harris, the film opened on medium 146 screens, but could manage a screen average of only $4,769 per theatre, indicating that the film didn't have quite the reach it was expecting. With previews, 28 Days Later's total is $0.77 million. Couple 28 Days Later's slow launch with what was quite a poor showing of the local film Undead, and its been quite a poor week for horror films in Australia.

Decent critical reaction towards 28 Days Later seems to have meant little to audiences, especially if a film like Darkness Falls is able to command around $424K the weekend before while appearing on the complete opposite end of the quality spectrum. Perhaps audiences were more pre-occupied with Finding Nemo this weekend, which is a bad sign considering the added distractions coming this weekend. Although horror films tend to do less business in Australia than in the U.S., it appears that even some the regular horror junkies that come out to see films like Resident Evil or Final Destination 2 were missing from theatres this weekend.

Compared to the U.S. opening, 28 Days Later's Australian launch comes in 30.4% behind* what it opened with in the U.S. in June. The opening was also 36.9% down^ on the opening it enjoyed in the U.K. last November, although both of those opening weekends, especially the U.K. opening was considered to be quite good. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, it appears that far fewer people than expected were in the mood for blood vomiting crazy people, as the film opened with far less than expected, right on half of my $1.4 million prediction.

The other new opener of the weekend was the Josh Harnett and Harrison Ford complete waste of time Hollywood Homicide. The film about an old loser and a young loser investigating stuff for some reason in amongst gang murders managed to convince movie goers to buy $0.67 million worth of tickets over the weekend. Opening a on a medium 150 screens, its average of $4,533 reflects just how many people didn't want to see the film, or were perhaps buying tickets to it and going in to see other movies.

The opening for Hollywood Homicide is similar to Ford's other waste of time from last year. K-19: The Widowmaker opened with $0.56 million, going on to collect $1.5 million in the end. Hollywood Homicide should be able to re-create the same pattern once word of mouth kicks about people telling others, not to see it.

Hollywood Homicide's Australian opening stands 38.8% behind* what it bowed with in the U.S., which was itself a fairly poor opening, although hardly unexpected. With films of some entertainment value opening this weekend, look for Hollywood Homicide to have a steep fall this weekend and fall further behind* that current margin. Compared to my weekly forecast, the opening for Hollywood Homicide was close, pretty much spot on with my $0.65 million prediction.

In fifth place in its fith weekend was the comedy sequel American Pie: The Wedding. The Jason Biggs and Alyson Hannigan starring third entry in the pastry, glue and pubes series collected $485K through the weekend, off a reasonable 35% through the frame. Having collected a fine $11.92 million so far, American Wedding is tracking 4.8% behind where American Pie II was after its corresponding fifth weekend when it was off 48%. This is out from the 3% negative margin from last weekend, due to a fifth weekend that was 10.3% weaker*.

American Wedding is now tracking 22% ahead* in Australia of where the film was after its fifth weekend in the U.S. This is out slightly from the 23.9% lead* it had at the close of last weekend. American Wedding looks to go on to finish around 17% ahead* of the U.S. total, that seats it in between the first two which finished 39.2% better* and 9.3% weaker* than their U.S. totals.

The top 20 films collected $10.54 million over the weekend, down 18.6% from last weekend, but up a huge 59.5% on this weekend from last year when Insomnia top spot bow of $1.47 million couldn't wake the box office up. The weekend was up 35.2% from this weekend two years ago when Jurassic Park III held onto the top spot in its second frame with $2.05 million, ahead of A Knight's Tale's $1.11 million in third.

Weekend Coming 11th - 14th September 2003

Hoping to provide Finding Nemo with some serious competition is the BVI stable mate and all round blockbuster Pirates of The Caribbean. Starring Johnny Depp, Geoffrey Rush, Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley, the film follows Captain Jack Sparrow and Will Turner, who head off into the Caribbean to rescue Elizabeth, who has been kidnapped by pirates. However, the pirates in the Gore Verbinski (The Ring, Mouse Hunt) directed flick have been cursed, and plan to sacrifice her in order to break it. The all-action and special effects driven flick was also produced by Jerry Bruckheimer, but has been receiving good word of mouth and decent reviews nonetheless.

Pirates of The Caribbean's U.S. success has been inspiring. Opening up after a line of high profile films that were considered disappointments, its opening weekend of $US46.6 million was a note of some surprise. However, week after week, declines of 27%, 32%, 18%, 30% etc, saw the film's weekly box office muscle, along with its prestige, climb substantially. Having passed the cume of The Matrix Reloaded in its ninth weekend, the film is till ranking in third place with a running cume of $US282 million. $US300 is a good possibility for the film, which would make it Disney's highest grossing live action film, beating out the $US294 million of The Sixth Sense, but still trailing both Nemo and The Lion King.

For Depp, Pirates of The Caribbean has become his highest grossing film, easily eclipsing the $US101 million take of 1999's Sleepy Hollow. It has also become the biggest film for Bruckheimer, passing the $US234.7 million of 1984's Beverly Hills Cop, and the biggest film for director Verbinski. Internationally, despite some ok but not great starts, such as in the UK, France and Japan, the film has gone on to show the same kind of sturdy holding power it saw in the U.S., in some cases better. However there have been some amazing debuts, from the likes of Spain and Germany, all of which have combined to deliver the film a sizzling international run.

Pirates of The Caribbean is the kind of movie that will be drawing on its audience from every demographic - the exact luxury Finding Nemo has enjoyed to itself over the last two weeks. Pirates of The Caribbean is an assured hit, but it will be in direct competition with Finding Nemo over the next few weeks as each wrings as much money from the public as it can. As a special effects adventure action, these types of films usually work very well in Australia, with the likes of The Mummy, Tomb Raider and of course the Lord of The Rings films excelling compared to their respective U.S. performances. Pirates of The Caribbean has been very well promoted, although what has been done so far will not convince everyone, that's the job of word of mouth. Nemo will still be swimming strong this weekend, but Pirates will steal the bulk of the treasure this weekend with a $6 million opening.

* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.