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Weekend 6th - 9th February 2003
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Star Trek: Nemesis opened with just enough thrust over the weekend to overtake last weeks champ Chicago by
just a few thousand dollars. The tenth feature film in Paramounts never say die franchise, in which captain Picard faces
off with a younger clone of himself bent on destroying Earth after having been raised in a Romulan mine, managed to warp
to an unconvincing $1.36 million over the weekend. Deploying on a medium 177 screens, the Stuart Baird directed picture
averaged a not too bad $7,720 per holodeck.
While the launch is the lowest opener of any of the Next Generation films, it is the first, on record, to achieve a top
spot bow. Star Trek: First Contact enjoyed a $1.86 million bow in 1996, Star Trek: Insurrection opened to
$1.78 million in 1998 and Star Trek: Generations opened with $1.41 million in 1994. The final totals of $5.54,
$4.93 and $4.46 million generated respectively by the previous Star Trek films will probably be out of reach for
Star Trek: Nemesis once word of mouth gets out. It saw an horrendous slice in its second weekend in the U.S., and
its not unsafe to expect more of the same in Australia, even regarding this coming weekends low competition.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Star Trek: Nemesis opened 21.6% lower* than its pre-Christmas weekend launch, which in
itself wasn't a bad opening, although it also shares the distinction of being the lowest opener of any of the Next Gen
Trek films in the U.S.. It's hard to imagine the film falling by close to 80% in Australia as it did in the U.S. in
its second weekend, so we may see that margin close slightly next weekend, but a final take of around $3.2 to $3.5 million
would still be disappointing. Compared to my opening weekend projections, the month long opening delay proved to be
irrelevant to the films success or lack there of, coming in under my $1.7 million forecast.
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Last weeks champ Chicago slipped to second over the weekend but again enjoyed the smallest decline in the top ten,
down 25%. The Renee Zellweger, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Richard Gere starring musical collected $1.32 million through its
third lap. upping its cume to a good $6.98 million. Adding another five screens to its count over the weekend, its now
screening on 164 screens. On February 20 the film should see a bump in sales as the film expands by 50 or so screens, this
should co-inside nicely being the week after Oscar nominations, so Chicago should see some solid play over the next
two weekends.
Compared to American Beauty which was off by 20% in its third weekend for a take of $1.26 million, Chicago
is currently tracking just 2.4% behind after three weeks, up on the 5.8% margin it was behind last weekend. American
Beauty's fourth weekend back in 2000 saw a bump in sales of 21% after Oscar nominations were announced. It's no mistake
that this weekend, also Chicago's fourth, will benefit from Oscar nominations having been released on the same
weekend in January as the award winning Kevin Spacey flick to take as much commercial advantage of the ceremony as
possible. American Beauty also expanded by 50 screens, but that was leading into its fourth weekend.
Compared to the U.S. pace Chicago is now tracking 9.4% ahead* in Australia, up from 1.7% behind* last weekend.
However that is of a comparison to the current cume after seven weeks of play there, as the four week comparison would be
inappropriate because of Chicago's initial limited play in the U.S.. Jumping by 53% in its seventh weekend in the
U.S., the film added 1,200 extra screens and will surely be a candidate to re-take the lead over Australia's cume next
weekend.
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8 Mile again dipped by one position over the weekend, down to third place. The Eminem starring picture collected
$0.9 million over the weekend to up its cume to a great $14.64 million. Still doing some strong business, off by
an acceptable 39% in its fourth lap, 8 Mile at the moment sits behind Two Weeks Notice as the second highest
money maker of 2003 so far, but should pass the Sandra Bullock flick to top the list by the close of next weekend.
8 Mile is now tracking 8.5% ahead of Tomb Raider after four weeks, down from the 15.8% lead it had last
weekend, thanks to a better 30% fourth weekend decline posted by the Jolie flick. It is also now tracking 3.6% behind
Pearl Harbor after four weeks, out just a little from the 1.1% deficit it had last weekend. A final cume right in
the middle of those two films would give it a very successful $17.5 million.
Compared to the U.S. pace, 8 Mile is now tracking a robust 36.3* ahead* in Australia of where it was after four
weeks of play in the U.S. This is up only just from the 36% lead* it had last weekend after a fourth weekend that was 57%
better in Australia, but was off more than the 33% decline posted in the U.S. From here on 8 Mile added the
equivalent* of just $1 million more to its final cume after week four, so we can expect that margin* to still increase
some in Australia, especially if its to get to $17 million.
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Fourth position was reserved for a fairly good second lap from Robin Williams' One Hour Photo. Off 36%, the film
follows a photo developer who develops something that he wasn't really paid for and starts stalking a family of good
clients to fulfil his obsession with them. Collecting $0.82 million, the film has a two week cume of $2.63 million.
Like so many smaller films that are released this time of year, its dependent on how they perform at the Oscars which
reflects on how much they eventually gross. A kind swag of nominations could see a films final take change from concluding
with something like $4 million, or getting up to $6 million if everything goes well. Compared to Insomnia in which
William's also shrugged his comedy routine, One Hour Photo is tracking 12.2% behind, exactly on par with the 12.2%
weaker opening weekend it had last weekend.
Compared to the U.S. take, after two weeks of play in Australia One Hour Photo is now tracking 16.7% behind* the
now current 19 week cume the film has in the U.S. Like Chicago its unpractical to compare the limited release U.S.
figures to what its now taking in Australia. So that's after just two weeks here vs. 19 in the States, by the close of
next weekend the Australian total should have easily passed* its 20 week collective cume in the U.S.
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Still plodding along on strong legs is The Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers. Through its seventh weekend in the
charts the Peter Jackson epic summoned another $0.8 million to raise its total to a mighty $42.19 million. Still standing
in position five on the all time list, it will have passed The Philosopher's Stone by the start of this coming
weekend. Compared to Fellowship, Two Towers was 20.6% below the seventh weekend take, thanks to a seventh
weekend of $1 million for Fellowship that was only down 20% from the weekend before. The Two Towers is now
tracking just $1.4% ahead of Fellowship, down from the 2% lead it had last weekend.
The Two Towers is now tracking 33.5% ahead* of the U.S. after seven weeks, up from the 32.4% lead it had last
weekend. The seventh weekend take in Australia was 58% better* than the same weekend in the U.S.
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- Catch Me If You Can was off one spot to sixth over the weekend. In its fifth weekend the DiCaprio and Hanks
starring adaptation of the life of young fraudster Frank Abagnale netted another $0.77 million to raise its total to
a very bright $13.07 million.
- Oscar hopeful About Schmidt starring Jack Nicholson had a seventh place opening over the weekend, managing to
collect $0.56 million. The story of a middle aged man who re-evaluates his life after his wife dies opened on a meagre 46
screens to enjoy a smashing average of $12,258, easily the best in the top 20. With a current cume of $0.96 million, the
opening weekend, although fairly limited here, was 33.9% behind* the wide weekend bow it had in the U.S. in January,
having been released in December to qualify for nominations. Mainly due to the lower than expected screen count, (one
thing that would be handy to have in making these predictions) About Schmidt came in a little over half of of my
$1 million estimate.
- In eighth place, I Spy was again off a rather moderate 35% in its third weekend. Collecting $0.52 million, the
Eddie Murphy and Owen Wilson action comedy has seen some ok holding power to up its cume to $3.55 million. I Spy now
looks to be able to match the final totals of Behind Enemy Lines and Showtime, both of which made around
$4.7 million.
- Two Weeks Notice was down 37% in its sixth weekend for a ninth place finish. The Sandra Bullock and Hugh Grant
comedy still stands as the years best performer having collected $0.39 million for a very fine current cume of $15.24
million. It should slightly pass $16 million by the end, just short of what 8 Mile hopes to achieve.
- The Quiet American is still doing good business in its fourth weekend. Down 29% to tenth place, the Phillip Noyce
directed picture collected $0.37 million for a nice cume of $3.43 million.
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The top 20 films collected $9.29 million over the weekend, the first weekend in 11 weeks they have not to collect over $10
million. Still, the top 20 was up a healthy 17.7% from this weekend last year when the box office was still ruled by
the previous months holdover, five week old Ocean's Eleven with $1 million. The weekend was up 27.6% on this weekend
two years ago when the same pattern was reflected as hold over Cast Away collected $1.39 million in its fourth
weekend and the only new debut was the $0.55 million opening of Duets in sixth.
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Weekend Coming 13th - 16th February 2003
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Gangs Of New York is the brightest release this weekend and hopes to muscle its way to the top of the charts,
although that really shouldn't be too much of a task for the film. Starring Leonardo Dicaprio, Daniel Day Lewis and Cameron
Diaz, the Martin Scorsese (Taxi Driver, Bringing Out The Dead) follows Amsterdam, an Irish guy who leads the
Irish immigrants in a war against the local Italian natives who are lead by the infamous Bill the Butcher, who incidentally
also killed Amsterdam's father when he was a young boy. Produced over two years, the much delayed Mirimax picture was
greeted with heavy enthusiasm from follows of its Director, but critical reception saw a few problems with the movie and
that was reflected in the less than expected box office returns.
Opening during the heavy Christmas frame against The Two Towers, Gangs Of New York saw only a moderate debut
with $US9.5 million. Although it played on less than half the screens of the Peter Jackson epic, Gangs Of New York's
average was only just over a third of that of Towers'. With in increased screen count, the film did just by 15% in
its second weekend and some ok word of mouth did keep its declines in the 20 - 30% range through January. Budgeted at a
whopping $US100 million, the film has only collected $US70 million so far with little room left to increase that. The film
should eventually break even through ancillaries and international revenue, but so far it has been below expectations.
The main drawcard of the film is Leonardo, its this film and he will be who people are coming to see after his successful
turn in Catch Me If You Can. In Australia, as anywhere, he has been largely unproven since the box office storm of
Titanic, with The Beach and Man In The Iron Mask doing only ok business in Australia. There has been
only praise for Leo's role in Catch Me, and as it enters its sixth weekend in Australia, having had another Leo film
so recently, in this instance anyhow, will only add to Gangs Of New York's potential. Nemesis will fade away
from the top this weekend and Chicago will continue to burn bright, but Gangs Of New York shouldn't have
any trouble conquering an already slow market with around $1.8 million.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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