The Box Office Report


Weekend 8th - 11th April 2004


Starsky and Hutch opened in style over the weekend, removing 50 First Dates from its two week reign and knocking off The Last Samurai to become 2004's biggest opener in the process. Finally re-invigorating the charts with some much needed energy, Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson combined to power the big-screen adaptation of Starsky and Hutch to a red hot $3.45 million launch. Starsky and Hutch follows the first case of the newly formed crime fighting duo, in which they must track down and bust a crook who has developed a new form of un-traceable cocaine. Opening on 288 screens, Starsky and Hutch's average of $11,986 was the best for a wide release since The Passion. Counting in the sale from Easter Monday, Starsky and Hutch's five day weekend take was a fine $4.35 million.

The opening for Starsky and Hutch counts as distributor Miramax's largest debut to date. Releasing films under the BVI parent banner, Miramax's first Australian release was back in 1993 with The Piano which netted an $0.61 million opening, and went on to collect an $11.24 million final. The previous opening weekend record was founded by the $3.02 million of last year's comedy sequel Scary Movie 3, which ended with $8.10 million. So far, their biggest release is the $18.94 million of 2003's Chicago. As mentioned, the opening also beats out the $3.40 million of January's Tom Cruise action epic The Last Samurai, to take the mantle of the year's largest entry. That film went on to collect $12.5 million.

Compared to Ben Stiller's last film, Along Came Polly, Starsky and Hutch's launch handily beats out the $2.55 million launch of the Jennifer Aniston co-starring romantic comedy by almost $1 million, or 35.2%. Counting in the public holiday, and Starsky and Hutch is running a mighty 70.4% ahead. While Polly went on to reach a respectable $9 million total, Starsky and Hutch will be aiming to crack the $10 million within two weeks. Also of note, there have only ever been three films to open above $3 million and not make it to a $10 million final, the last film to score that prestigious nod of under-achievement was co-incidentally enough Scary Movie 3. None the less, it is a rarity, and Starsky and Hutch is off to a much stronger start than both The Hulk and Daredevil managed, so the road ahead looks positive.

The launch counted as the second best for Stiller, behind only the $4.19 million of Meet The Parents. For Owen Wilson, the opening of Starsky and Hutch was similar to the $3.50 million of 1998's Armageddon, although as a new actor on the block at that time, he wasn’t really the film's draw card. Consistency has been his name since, opening seven films in the $1 to $2 million range, including his last film, the $1.03 million opening of Shanghai Knights. Released almost a year to the day from the Jackie Chan co-starrer, Starsky and Hutch already has as much in five days than the $4.55 million the comedy action sequel earned all up.

Compared to the U.S. pace, the opening weekend for Starsky and Hutch comes in a cool 23% ahead* in Australia of what the film earned six weeks ago upon its U.S. release. Counting in the long weekend figures, and Starsky and Hutch is tracking a formidable 55% ahead at the close of each first weekend. Starsky and Hutch has enjoyed some solid play in the U.S. with respectable declines. In the U.S., Starsky and Hutch has performed much like his January entry Along Came Polly, almost uncannily so. After six weeks, or 40 days of play, Starsky and Hutch is a minute $US300K difference. With Starsky and Hutch already excelling Polly in Australia, its chances of improving on that 23% U.S. margin* are a certainty for next weekend, and good to the films end. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Starsky and Hutch's launch was a solid $1.2 million more than my overindulgent prediction of $2.2 million. Count in the long weekend figures, and I look like a complete tool.

Graciously conceding the top spot was the Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore romantic comedy 50 First Dates. Although the film was off by 40% through its third weekend, the film did well over the extended weekend, collecting $1.54 million for the four day frame and $1.99 million over the extended Easter Monday five day holiday frame. The Columbia film has now upped its total to a great $9.42 million, with an eye to have passed through the $10 million in mark by this Thursday. Once it does 50 First Dates will have become the fifth film of the year to do so after Something's Gotta Give, The Passion, Spy Kids 3D and The Last Samurai.

Last weekend 50 First Dates was tracking 13.2% behind the two-week pace of Anger Management, which was up from the 26.1% weaker bow. This weekend, thanks to the extended weekend (we can use that comparison instead of the four day frame because Anger Management had that advantage in the opening weekend comparison) 50 First Dates is now tracking 6.2% ahead. Although 50 First Dates' third weekend dip of 40% was large-ish, the Jack Nicholson co-starrer was off a much larger 60% in its third weekend. From here on out, Management was good for another $2 million above its three week total of $8.86 million. 50 First Dates however should at least one more weekend of respectable holds before the post-school holiday declines arrive, so passing the $11.22 million final of The Waterboy is still a likelihood.

Compared to the U.S. pace, 50 First Dates is now tracking 1% ahead* when comparing the regular third frames in each territory, and 6% ahead* when factoring in the long-weekend figures. Regardless of which one is deemed a more appropriate comparison, they are both up on the 11% negative margin* from last weekend. The regular Australian third weekend frame itself was 23% better* than the U.S. third frame. 50 First Dates continued to show good steam through to week seven in the U.S. without the aid of a holiday period before steep declines showed. There's very little in the way of new competition this weekend, and only one major release for each of the two weekends after that, so 50 First Dates's holding power will be a reflection of its power rather than outside influences.

Holding steady in third position was one of the weekend's top three performers, Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed. Top three in terms of its impressive energy rather than just its chart position, the comedy sequel was off by only 11% in its second weekend. Starring Freddie Prinze Jr., Sarah Michelle Gellar, Linda Cardellini and Matthew Lillard and a computer animated Scooby, Scooby-Doo 2 collected $1.22 million over the regular frame and $1.68 million over the extended five-day weekend. This brings the two week total for the film to $3.81 million.

Although Scooby-Doo 2 was able to jump over The Cat In The Hat and take the lead in chart positions this weekend, the mantle for the best-performing family film over the holiday period is still up in the air. Scooby-Doo 2 is still trailing Cat's cumulative total, and their second weekend takes weren't all that dissimilar from each other. Compared to the first Scooby-Doo film, Scooby-Doo 2's two week cume has only now just passed the $3.60 million that the first flick earned in its opening weekend. Scooby-Doo was off by a small 26% in its second frame for a $2.67 million take and $7.46 million cume. All this means that Scooby-Doo 2 is now tracking 48.8% behind Scooby-Doo after two weeks, up from the 61.5% weaker opening last weekend. Scooby-Doo 2 is looking like the computer-animated star sequel Stuart Little 2, which ended up with exactly half of the surprisingly powerful first entry. Carry that over to Scooby-Doo 2, and it's headed for around $9.1 million. That seems a bit rich now.

Compared to the U.S. pace, Scooby-Doo 2 tracking 32% behind* in Australia through its second frame, up from last weekend's 53% weaker* launch. Counting in the long weekend figures and Scooby-Doo 2 is tracking a better 23.2% behind*. The second regular Australian weekend frame of Scooby-Doo 2 itself was 16.8% weaker* than the U.S. second frame, while the holiday-weekend was 14.0% better*. Scooby-Doo 2 is sticking to what looks to be 45 to 50% declines in the U.S., and while we are seeing better holds than that in Australia at the moment, the end of the school-holidays will see 50%-plus declines to level things out.

The other new film of the weekend to draw in enough viewers to enter the top five was the Johnny Depp starring Secret Window. The Maria Bello and John Turturro co-starring picture about a writer who is suddenly confronted by a stranger with a seemingly baseless claim that he stole his story, opened with a good $1.21 million for fourth place. The Stephen King adaptation deployed on a wide 194 screens, and managed an ok $6,272 average, second in the top five only to Starsky and Hutch, but coming in behind the opening averages of the art-house films The Barbarian Invasions, Tais-Toi and Nathalie's $10,697, $9,198 and $8,602 respectively.

The opening for Secret Window is similar to Depp's 1997 mob infiltration flick Donnie Brasco, which netted $1.05 million in its first weekend, concluding with $4.16 million. Compared to his last flick, February's Once Upon A Time In Mexico, the opening is a little weaker than its $1.45 million launch. That film also ended up with $4.2 million, similar to Blow's final of $4.32 million. Secret Window would normally be a candidate for some large drops given how it's done in the U.S. and finish with just over $3 million, but with somewhat of a precedent to go by for Depp's films opening in the $1 million range, Secret Window could be headed for around $4 million if not only due to the school-holidays helping out. For the record, Secret Window's opening was Depp's fourth best from his 22 Australian releases, although to carry that ranking over to final totals, it would need to pass the $6.10 million of Edward Scissorhands which is unlikely.

Compared to the U.S. pace, the opening for Secret Window comes in 33% below* in Australia when looking at the regular frame, and 16% behind* when comparing the five-day frame. The bow of Secret Window in the U.S. was unusually strong, owing a lot to its star-power, but coming in second fiddle to The Passion's third weekend. With only average holding power, Secret Window was able to carry on its respectable opening and is close to finishing with a respectable final. While Depp's last film, Once Upon A Time In Mexico opened 38% behind* the U.S. pace, it eventually improved that margin to finish 26% behind*. Compared to my opening forecast, Secret Window opened spot on with my $1.2 million prediction.

Although it dipped below Scooby 2 in its chart position The Cat In The Hat still scored respectable results of its own, off only 24% from its bow last weekend. Falling two place to fourth from its number two launch last weekend, the Mike Myers starring big-screen adaptation of the classic Dr. Seuss tale that follows a mischievous cat as he causes trouble at the home of two kids, collected a further $1.19 million over the regular four-day frame, and a fine $1.63 million during the five-day period. So far The Cat In The Hat has a total of $4.04 million, and is still just ahead of its arch-rival Scooby Doo 2.

Last weekend, The Cat In The Hat managed to come in a healthy 20.7% ahead of the launch of 2000's The Grinch, while this weekend Mike is tracking a hot 53.2% ahead when incorporating the holiday weekend total. Although the Jim Carrey flick was off a similar 27% in its second frame, the The Grinch had a five week significant lifespan. The Cat In The Hat has probably one more week of decent play left before the crushing declines set in. The second weekend of The Cat In The Hat was 24.4% better than the second frame of The Grinch. It's still going to be a battle for The Cat In The Hat to reach $8.14 million, and despite its current advantage, The Cat has to double its current two week cume if it is to do so.

Compared to the U.S. pace, The Cat In The Hat is currently tracking 52% behind* in Australia after two weeks, an improvement over the 59% weaker opening from last weekend. The film stands 47% behind* when comparing the two week pace against the five-day holiday frame. Given that The Cat In The Hat imploded after the holiday period in the U.S., the future for The Cat In The Hat doesn't look too promising once they come to a conclusion here.




Elsewhere in the charts, honours for the best performance of the weekend go to The Passion of The Christ's 55% seventh weekend jump. Collecting $0.80 million for the four days and $1.01 million through the five days, the Mel Gibson film was able to use the religious holiday to great effect, upping its cume to a hot $13.42 million.

In seventh place was the third weekend of The Haunted Mansion. The Eddie Murphy flick was off by 32%, seemingly unable to use the school-holidays to the desired effect as its dropped three places. Collecting $0.53 million for the four days and $0.74 million for the five days, The Haunted Mansion's cume is now a soft $3.42 million, with little more to come.

Opening in eighth place was Win A Date With Tad Hamilton!. The film starring Kate Bosworth, Topher Grace and Josh Duhamel, the film that follows the adventures of a girl after she wins a date with a celebrity managed a mere $492K through the four days and $0.61 million through the five days.

In ninth place was the art-house winner Monster. The Charlize Theron flick was off by 34%, quite hefty when compared to its hold last weekend and when compared to some of the other films in release. Still, in perspective it's not all bad, collecting $303K through the four days and $396K over the five days. Currently Monster is sitting at $1.89 million, just 0.4% ahead of 21 Grams after four weeks, which was off by 28% through its third weekend.

Rounding out the top ten was the fourth new film to enter the list, Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen. Opening with $182K over the four days and $262K over the five days, the Lindsay Lohan starring film is obviously having a tough time doing solid business anywhere, leading on from its over-ripe performance in the U.S.




The top 20 films collected $12.05 million over the four days, up 30.2% on last weekend. Over the five day frame, the top 20 take was a bright $15.69 million. The regular weekend was up 20.5% on this weekend a year ago when Johnny English opened on top with $2.39 million, ahead of Fat Pizza's $1.16 million in its first weekend and Shanghai Knights' launch of $1.03 million. The weekend was up 11.0% on this weekend two years ago when Panic Room opened on top with $2.61 million and The Time Machine opened in second with $1.67 million.






Weekend Coming 15th - 18th April 2004

From the nine new releases last weekend, seven of them had enough energy to enter the top 20 and shake things up a bit, this weekend sees a reduction in the introduction of new life with only two new films going into wide release. The widest of them is the Angelina Jolie, Ethan Hawke and Kiefer Sutherland starring thriller Taking Lives. Long time TV director D.J. Caruso steps behind the big-screen camera for the first time to direct a tale about a serial killer who assumes the life of each person he murders. However there's an FBI profiler on his tale this time around and with the killer growing tired of his current identity, and an unwitting museum employee acting as bait, the trap is set to catch him. With poor reviews and word of mouth, Taking Lives is another failed attempt at the recent influx of female-led crime thrillers, although this time around it was Warner Bros. suffering the loss instead of Paramount.

Taking Lives opened in the U.S. four weeks ago with a mild $US11.45 million, not terrible, but considering that the film has been falling in the 40 to 50% range, the opening hasn't been enough to enable the film to go on and collect anything respectable. With a current cume of $US30.4 million and only a short road left to travel before the film finishes screening, the $US45 million budgeted film counts as another disappointment for both Jolie and Warner Bros. As far as Jolie goes, Taking Lives is somewhat in the mid-ground, with her films usually either acceptably successful or complete flamers. Until now her films have either earned over $US65 million or under $US20 million, with the exception of Girl, Interrupted which made off with $US28.9 million.

While the holiday period is still going strong for the current releases, the effect on Taking Lives will only marginal. The film created little interest in the U.S., and that will be directly reflected in Australia. There's nothing all that different in the film that audiences will not have already found last weekend in Secret Window, which suggests that Taking Lives may have had a better run if it was released two weeks ago. We've also seen from its U.S. run that people care little about the talent involved. Jolie's last film, Beyond Borders was a no-show, almost literally, with Roadshow granting it a 40 screen release and being burned with an astonishingly awful $651 average on each of them. Before that, a quality-improved but nonetheless ridiculed Tomb Raider sequel opened with $2.00 million and finished with $6.03 million, meaning that cred' for the actress has waned considerably since her Oscar-winning days. The number one film for the previous six weeks have all been from films repeating their successes into weekend two, and Taking Lives won't have enough power to deny Starsky and Hutch from continuing on with that pattern. Still Taking Lives has a chance of opening with $1 million this weekend.



* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.



The Top 20 Films


Written By Paul Boschen
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