The Box Office Report





Weekend 8th - 11th August 2002

On top of the box office for the second week of its release was the only real choice moviegoers had over the weekend in About A Boy. Finding it no problem to rule a chart that is in desperate need of rejuvenation after the questionable but not surprising opening of a trio of disappointing new films, About A Boy took advantage of the situation by scoring the best hold in the top ten.

Starring Hugh Grant and Nicholas Hoult, the film which follows Will, who enjoys his single life of non-dependency until he meets Marcus, a 12 year old boy who begins to show him that there may be more to life than what he currently has dipped by only 20% over the weekend. The $1.55 million second weekend collection isn't a huge figure, nor was it's opening last weekend when compared to Grant's last few co-starring films in Australia. This film has done some decent figures though and the great hold of the film in it's second weekend indicates that Grant himself is generating some great word of mouth about film. While the film is certainly successful in its own right, it's also important to note the lack of competition in the marketplace at the moment with About A Boy being the only film in release to even slightly worry the $1 million mark. We may see some steeper declines in the weeks ahead as new product entering the marketplace gives people some much needed variety.

After two weeks of release About A Boy has a fine total of $5.1 million which includes a weekend a previews. Of the other films released this year, About A Boy is tracking closest to the comedy Shallow Hal, funnily enough whose central character also focuses on a guy that isn't all that respectable in the field of women. That film opened slightly stronger than About A Boy but did fall sharper in its second weekend for a similar 13 day total of $5.6 million, 13 days as that film opened on a Tuesday, New Years day. That film went on to collect a very respectable $9.1 million. About A Boy has already shown much better holding power, and even with the new product entering the market place, it should hold its own fine and should be able to trickle past $10 million by the end of its run.

Compared to the performance of the film in the U.S. after two weeks, About A Boy is running a super 131% ahead*, up from being 123% stronger* last weekend thanks to a second weekend helping that was 58% better*. Although it was no difficult feat to predict, About A Boy has already passed the comparative $4 million final that About A Boy made in the U.S. and should end up around 150% better*. While About A Boy's bow was down^ on the comparative U.K. opening by 25%, the film scored a much better hold in the second weekend here compared to the U.K.'s 40% dip to have a second frame that was almost identical^. The much better second weekend hold and the advantage of previews in Australia means About A Boy is only running a slight 4.8% behind^ the U.K. pace after two weeks of release. It's unlikely though that we will see the holding power in the next few weeks it displayed in the U.K. to allow it comparative final total of close to $12 million there.

In second place again was the sleeper success Bend It Like Beckham. In its amazing sixth week of release the film added another four screens to collect $0.67 million. Perhaps signalling that the film is starting to find all the audience growth that is possible, the film dipped by 22%. This fall is slim when compared to most films on even a good weekend, and is only the second weekend that Bend It Like Beckham has seen a decline in sales. Compared to previous weekends of Beckham though, it is a steep fall considering the continued expansion of play dates. Aside from this, Bend It Like Beckham now has a fantastic total of $8.2 million and is still climbing on the back of fantastic word of mouth.

Compared to the U.K. performance, Bend It Like Beckham continues to do well in Australia, through the sixth weekend the cumulative total stands a shiny 20.6% ahead^ of the U.K. pace, up from 17.5% ahead^ last weekend. This is thanks to a sixth weekend take that was 101% better^ in Australia.

The best of the three openers this weekend could be described as nothing more than remedial. Taking those honours was the new Nicole Kidman flick Birthday Girl. The film which follows a Russian mail order bride and her British orderer become embroiled in a past she tried to leave behind opened with a meagre $0.51 million. That was enough to slot the film in third place, a great indicator of just how weak the box office is at the moment. Infiltrating a slim 87 screens, the smallest count of the new openers, Birthday Girl also easily took the highest screen average of the three with an ok $5,918, the third best in the top ten.

There's very little to compare this film with as it's figures barely even registered in the U.S. upon its release, but the launch is 121% better* that the U.S. opening. Not really indicating any strength of its Australian performance, but more so the weakness of the film in the U.S., the opening weekend figure totals more than what the film earned in its entire U.S. run*. If the film had stared anyone other than Nicole Kidman, it would probably have only opened on 45 screens and managed something closer to a U.S. comparison of $0.2 million. Compared to my opening weekend prediction, Birthday Girl actually slightly exceeded my opening weekend estimate of $0.4 million and managed to shrug off my expected second place opening of the three new openers to finish on top of them.

The comedy The Sweetest Thing dipped one place to fourth over the weekend and continued to show some decent holding power, off a moderate, but ok 38%. Considering the extremes the film suffered in the U.S., Australia has been very kind to the film as the it collected another $0.5 million. The Sweetest Thing was certainly promoted very well in Australia, and much like About A Boy, hit theatres when holdovers from the holidays began their post child-fuelled fast burn. The Cameron Diaz and Christina Applegate starring comedy now has an ok cume of $3 million and should come close to finishing with a fine $4.5 million.

The other new opener of the weekend to hassle the top five was the Kevin Costner thriller Dragonfly. Entering at number five, the film in which a doctor believes he is being contacted by his dead wife through his patients opened with $0.47 million. This is quite disappointing for the film considering its distributor backed the film with an unusually strong promotional campaign. Of course, it wasn't massive when compared to many movies, but considering only the limited success Dragonfly had in the U.S., the Australian effort was over done. That has been reflected by the lax opening weekend signalling that few people were interested in the film and still associate Kevin Costner with yawn inducing baseball dramas and post-apocalyptic snooze fests. Even though he wore a tie like Richard Gere, Kevin's jump into a supernatural themed film hasn't paid off.

Compared to the opening of Dragonfly in the U.S., it stands a distant 53.4% behind* what was a relatively fine opening of the film. Dragonfly will fall faster than Jason Priestly after 90210 and end up with a back-breaking $1 million in Australia. Of the three new openers, it was Dragonfly that was to top my predictions with $0.7 million, but as you can see it finished a few notches below that figure and could only manage second behind Birthday Girl.






- Windtalkers dipped two spots this weekend to sixth position. The Nic Cage war film about the Navaho inspired code that helped the U.S. to victory in the pacific half of World War II decoded $0.43 million from cinema goers in its second attack for a soft total of $1.4 million. Falling 41% from a bow that could have been better, Windtalkers has very little steam left and won't see a decline lower than 40% from now on and will round out with close to $2 million.

- The Bryan Brown heist flick Dirty Deeds was off 34% in its fourth heavy for $0.38 million. The film now has $4.1 million and should round out with $5 million, not that far behind Brown's own Two Hands.

- Men In Black II ended its sixth weekend in eighth place with $0.31 million. Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones lost 39% of their audience over the weekend but have seen the total for their plot free sci-fi sequel elevate to $16.9 million. An expected $17.5 million final total for Men In Black II is great considering the inferiority of the film.

- The New Guy was the third of the new openers, only managing ninth place with $0.29 million. The film about a guy who goes to a new school in order to leave behind his nerdish reputation deployed on 105 screens for a dim average of $2,800 per class. Underachieving even more so than my diffused forecast of $0.4 million, The New Guy was only off target from my forecast by $0.1 million.

- This was the last week we'll see three British films in the top ten together with Ali G In Da House continuing to fall hard. Off 41% in its fourth weekend, the flick collected $0.25 million for a fine total of $3.7 million. It's $4 million or so final total is fairly respectable for a property that wasn't all that widely known in Australia before the feature release.






The top 20 films collected a slow $6.6 million over the weekend, down 18.7% from last weekend and down 31.9% from this weekend last year when Planet Of The Apes ruled the planet with a juicy $3.9 million, although that was still a distant 43% behind* the cracking opening weekend it had in the States. Second place was reserved for Bridget Jones's Diary with a great $2 million in its third weekend, off just 29%. The weekend was much closer to this weekend two years, but still came in 4.3% weaker than when Shanghai Noon was the only film to collect over $1 million worth of tickets in its opening weekend with a top spot $1.6 million.






Weekend Coming - Weekend 15th - 18th August 2002

There's two new films going into wide release this weekend, and leading them out is the new Mel Gibson starring film Signs. Written and Directed by just one man, M. Night Shyamalan also wrote the last two features he directed, those being his debut film The Sixth Sense and his follow up effort Unbreakable. There's no doubting that the prestige of the director holds just as much weight as the headlining star for Signs, if not a little more for many people anticipating this film. Signs has kept its plot secret for a long while, with many people only knowing the film has an alien element to it, and it stars Mel Gibson. That's probably all anyone wants to know about the film before they see it too as they hold faith in it's director to give them something new.

Released by Buena Vista in the U.S., the same distributor that successfully handled Shyamalan's last two films, Signs opened last weekend in the U.S. to amazing figures, reflecting a brilliant advertising campaign that merely teased about the film's content. Having learned from releasing his last two films, Buena Vista have obviously streamlined the campaign around Shyamalan's style of slowly unfurling a story, by not giving away too much as they did with The Sixth Sense. The opening weekend was reflective of the intense anticipation it created as the film opened with a sensational $US60.1 million. Like almost all films that have mega openings these days, Signs was not able to curtail a large second weekend decline, the weekend just gone saw the film slide 51% to $US29.5 million. Produced for a medium $US62 million, Signs still has a scorching ten day cume in the U.S. of $US118 million and should see holding power kick in on its path to crossing the $US200 million mark giving it's distributor one of only a few things to smile about this year.

Advertising campaigns for Signs have seen real life crop circles created to promote the film, much more effective than accident inducing building size posters of holes in office towers. Signs has been well promoted in theatres with trailers running for months, and there has been a blitz kreig of advertising on the TV over the last week. Australians know Signs is coming. Curiosity may be the main reason many will turn out this weekend. Advertising makes it look very interesting and the sparsity of plot detail means they have to put a lot of faith in the talent behind the film. People see Mel Gibson, and he rarely lets the masses down at the theatre, and people will always remember The Sixth Sense and associate the 'director of' that film with any potentially great new film. Signs may perform much like Planet Of The Apes did last year and have a robust Australian opening, but still trail the launch it scored in the U.S. by some distance percentage wise. Co-starring Joaquin Phoenix, the film has been rated M in Australia and looks set for an opening in the $4 million range.

Also opening this week in what will certainly be the shadows of Signs, but what can easily boast as having one of the best ever posters is the horror sequel Jason X. Evil gets an upgrade apparently in the tenth entry of the horror franchise that sees the awakening of the murderous Jason Vorhees who has a hankering for some more teenage ass spankering, this time in the 25th century, aboard a spaceship no less. Starring Kane Hodder as the hockey-masked revenge driven man with perfect skin and jaw structure, the film was directed by novice James Isaac who's only previous experience was for 1989's sequel The Horror Show, aka House 3. Jason X opened way back in April in the U.S., a distance date itself that was finally chosen after many delays. The New Line film was produced for a modest $14 million and opened with a disappointing $US6.6 million. The film went on to see almost no holding power and rounded out with an awful $12.6 million final total.

The film now finally sees the light of day in Australia after what was feared to be a straight to video release. Distributed by Roadshow in Australia, the MA rated film is entering the marketplace with little fanfare, at least to anyone who hasn't been looking forward to the picture for the last two years. Judging by the lax effort of the film in the U.S., it's appeal is very niche oriented. There's been little advance buzz on Jason X other than trailers that were playing in theatres some five months ago, signalling yet another delayed release after U.S. results signalled a local bomb. Considered unnecessary by some, the tenth entry in the series is likely to draw in hardcore fans of Jason and his adventures and those looking for something new after being turned away from sold out sessions of Signs. This futuristic slasher tale may open with a gashing $0.5 million this weekend.



* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.



The Top 20 Films


Written by Paul Boschen.