Weekend 8th - 11th July 2004
Achieving much at all in the face of Shrek 2 isn't an easy business. Achieving records is even harder. But although
the weekend results for Spider-Man 2 weren't far ahead of the green guy's fourth weekend, Spider-Man 2
managed some respectable second weekend figures of its own. Thanks in large part to a generous helping of clientele through
the continuing school holiday period, Spider-Man 2 was off only 36% from an opening that was admittedly considered
sub-par at best last weekend. Although to be fair, its opening still managed to rank alongside some fairly prestigious
openers and is well inside the top 20 openings of all time. Any film that can sustain a 36% fall from that kind of start is
doing something right. Still playing on a super-wide 442 screens, Spider-Man 2's average of $10,388 was this
weekend second best of the non-IMAX releases behind Shrek 2 - More on that below.
Collecting $4.59 million through the frame, the Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst, James Franco and Alfred Molina starring film saw it's total rise to a fairly stable $16.70 million in 12 days. That second weekend frame counts as the 14th best all-time Second Weekend in Australia, up a few notches from its 16th best opening last weekend, which again goes to show that it has managed some above average holding power leading into its second weekend. Most films to open above $7 million have seen second weekend declines of at least 40%, notable non-holiday performers to do better than this were our computer generated friends Shrek 2 and Finding Nemo. Looking at more ways to show what has been a good week in general for Spider-Man 2 after a slow start, the comic book sequel swung up an impressive $3.37 million through the Monday thru Wednesday period. Although this was down on the $3.94 million that Spider-Man made through the same period back in 2002, a large proportion of the that was earned on its $2.5 million Monday public holiday. Against Spider-Man, Spider-Man 2 is now tracking 14.4% behind the $19.53 million that the Willem Dafoe starrer had after two weeks, a good improvement on the 32.4% weaker opening. Spider-Man 2's second weekend comes in 8.6% weaker than Spider-Man's $5.02 million second frame, which was down 52% from its opening. Sadly for the web-spinner, these kinds of good holds may very well be short lived. With Victoria and Queensland already back in school mode, and the bulk of the country ready to be back after this coming weekend, the advantage that all films have been savouring will soon be gone. While this will undoubtedly effect family and teenage oriented films more drastically than Spider-Man 2, no film can claim immunity from it. Some good news for Spider-Man 2 is that although it opened just under the $7.31 million 2003 launch of Terminator 3 last weekend, Spider-Man 2 already has more in its bank than T3 made in four weeks. Spider-Man 2 should also be passing T3's $19.09 million final by the start of this weekend. All this means that Spider-Man 2 should be soon passing The Day After Tomorrow and Troy to finalize itself as the year's third best film so far, in a week or two. Compared to the U.S. pace, Spider-Man 2 is now tracking 35% behind* in Australia. Still a wide margin, but it's an improvement on last weekend's 43% negative margin* at the close of the first weekend - including Wednesday figures. While the actual opening weekend was 19% weaker*, the second weekend comes in 2% better* in Australia. This changes occurred for two main reasons. On the Australian side we can cite holiday business being compacted into a smaller time frame. On the American side, a multitude of fans and general cinema-goers stormed theatres through its first seven days, leaving less patrons available to boost it's second weekend. Australia should also see a better third weekend* than in the U.S., but after that it will be up to the film alone to govern its holding power. 
There continues to be absolutely no stopping Shrek 2 through these amazingly lucrative school-holidays. It'll be
sad for the film and its supporters when they end, but for now Shrek 2 is having fun smashing all records in its
sights. Still in second place, Shrek 2's astonishing fourth weekend of $4.25 million helped lift it's cume to a
sensational $42.26 million - off only 20%, it's one of the best holds for a film to take over $2 million in it's fourth
weekend. What can you say when such a powerful fourth weekend doesn't reach the number one position? - A figure that would
stand proudly in the top 50 all-time opening weekend chart. Obviously there's space enough for other films to do well
around it, but you have give respect to a star performer where it's due, and Shrek 2 deserves it all. Strange then,
that theatre owners would again see fit to slash 32 screens from Shrek 2's count, down to 398, when it more than
tripled Azkaban's take last weekend, but that film enjoys the addition of four more screens to be playing on 408, 10
more than Shrek 2?!
The fourth weekend of $4.25 million easily counts as the highest Fourth Weekend of all-time in Australia. As if breaking the records of other franchises wasn't enough, Shrek 2 turned it's sights on it's own by racing past the $3.08 million of previous record holder Shrek - again as it did last weekend and the weekend before - by more than a million. Continuing this massacre next weekend means that it hopes to swag around $3 million to pass Fifth Weekend record holder Harry Potter's $2.91 million. With a such a large figure in the bank to date, it's logical to assume that Shrek 2 may be coming close to exhausting its potential audience, which means that after a reasonable fall this coming weekend, a close of holidays could see a large downturn in business. It's impossible that Shrek 2 can sustain the kinds of holds that Titanic enjoyed after this point in its run, and not much chance of matching Return of The King either. School holidays dictate that this is a front-loaded film, once people are concentrating on the third semester the show is close to over. But you have to consider this films appeal - it's been massive. It there an untapped audience that will show up after the holidays? Back to the business of records. Shrek 2's running cume now stands a commanding $4.3 million ahead of the $38.00 million that Return of The King had after Four Weeks. That puts Shrek 2 $7 million behind the $49.33 million that King eventually wound up with. Can Shrek 2 pass it? The Mike Myers starring film is going to have a good mid-week this week, and it should have a fine weekend too, although it may not pass The Philosopher’s Stone for highest fifth weekend honours, it should still comes close to that. If it does, there's another $5 million at a conservative count before the holidays fully close. This puts it into $50 million territory with the aid of just a week or two of our non-holiday period. Shrek added another $4 million to its total after the holidays ended back in 2001, which proves money is still there to be made. $50 million is a lock. Compared to the U.S. pace, Shrek 2's Australian strength is highlighted by the fact we are now tracking an ever impressive 20% ahead* of what is undeniably a booming U.S. run. This is another increase on the 10% positive* margin of last weekend, thanks to a fourth weekend that was 83% better* Down Under. As with Spider-Man 2 and all films in release, a larger decline is expected this coming weekend than the bumper frame the whole crop just enjoyed. Shrek 2 was off 40% in the U.S. into its fifth weekend, which if correlated across would give Shrek 2 a $2.5 million fifth weekend in Australia. 
While we knew Harry Potter and The Prisoner of Azkaban wasn't going to be able to stick it to the rises that each
of its predecessors saw through their fifth weekends, the third entry in the J.K. Rowling series none the less proved
resilient through the frame, up 0.4% on last weekend. Collecting $1.72 million through the weekend and $1.27 million
through its fourth mid-week, The Prisoner of Azkaban has seen its total rise to stand just short of the $30 million
mark, at $29.97 million. Currently standing in position 20 on the All-Time chart, the Gary Oldman
co-starrer will be looking for a small degree of revenge in the next couple of weeks as it targets Shrek's
$32.04 million.
While it's second and third weekend declines were somewhat high, The Prisoner of Azkaban has steadied nicely through weekends four and five, again thanks to the holiday period. The fifth weekend take stands as the 11th best Fifth Weekend of all-time in Australia, even outgunning what Return of The King managed through that frame. Azkaban's fifth weekend stands 28.2% behind the $2.40 million fifth weekend that The Chamber of Secrets scored when it rose 21% in its fifth weekend. The Philosopher's Stone was up an even better 28% through it's fifth weekend Christmas frame to $2.92 million, as mentioned above, the current fifth weekend champ. After five weekends, The Prisoner of Azkaban is still tracking ahead of Secrets, this week a slight 2.1% ahead, down from last weekend's 3.2% lead. Although against Stone, which went into over-drive through the same period in 2001, Azkaban is now standing 2.8% behind, a switch from last weekend's 1.3% lead. Both the Potter films, but especially Stone had great holding power from here on. Azkaban though is doing well, and while it won't be able to rise to match the $37.37 million of The Chamber of Secrets, it now looks like it has a shot of eventually closing at between $34 and $35 million. At this point in time in its run, Shrek was at $27.43 million, having just enjoyed the last weekend of school-holidays. It made $4.6 million more. Azkaban has one more week of holidays to go in most states, and having just started the school holidays in W.A., two more there, so making at least another $5 million is certainly plausible. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Prisoner of Azkaban is now tracking 34% ahead* in Australia, up from the 28% positive margin last weekend. The fifth weekend take was a magical 190% better* in Australia than what it took in the U.S. when it suffered a 47% fall, despite the aid of the Independence Day holiday. At this stage, The Prisoner of Azkaban looks to finish somewhere between the 33% better* margin that Stone rounded out with and the 43% of Secrets, perhaps at 40%* or so which would give Azkaban a $35 million total in Australia and $US250 million in the U.S.. 
As with the top three films, it was a reproduction of last weekend for the remainder of the top five. Holding very well in
fourth position was the hit chick flick Mean Girls. Off only 7% from last weekend, the Lindsay Lohan starring film
added another four screens to be showing on a nice rounded 200. It's respectable third weekend average of $5,993 netted it
$1.19 million through the weekend to elevate its total to a hot $6.35 million.
From here Mean Girls is showing signs of Along Came Polly power, which had collected $6.56 million through its third weekend. The Ben Stiller starring romantic comedy eventually collected a very nice $9.04 million with the aid of subsequent weekends from here that were fairly kind. Mean Girls will need to perform well to reach that figure, but it has been doing very well so far, so it's not to be ruled out yet. Through the weekend Mean Girls passed the $6.18 million of Lohan's Freaky Friday to stand as her best performing film in Australia, which is a handy improvement on the mediocre $1.64 million final of April's Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen. Compared to the U.S. pace, Mean Girls is now tracking 15% ahead* in Australia after three weeks. After an opening weekend that was 26% lower*, Mean Girls has shown good stead in Australia. The third weekend frame in Australia was 18% better* than what is collected in the U.S. when it was down in impressive 25% - although that was no match for the local 7% dip. 
One hit of the good stuff obviously wasn't enough for their addicted fan base, as Olsen twins' film, New York
Minute, rose 7% from last weekend's bow. Although it launched with soft results, its second weekend of $0.65 million
has shown that under the right conditions, even a stalled publicity tour can't stop the global assault of the Olsens.
With $1.85 million to its name, New York Minute has already passed other recent teen-girl flicks such as the aforementioned Drama Queen, the 1.82 million of Win a Date With Tad Hamilton!, and is now banking on passing the other girl flick doing business at the moment, The Prince and Me. The Julia Stiles film had $1.43 million after weekend two - last weekend - and took $403K in its third for a cume of $2.16 million. It'll be a tight finish between them. Compared to the U.S. pace, New York Minute is now tracking a distant 72% ahead* in Australia, up from last weekend's 2% lead*. Why? Word of mouth was no friend to this film in the U.S. as it dipped by a reasonable 36% in its second frame before severe weekly free-falls from there. The second weekend take itself was also 72% better*. The top 20 films collected $15.24 million through the weekend, down 16.0% on last weekend, but up 11.8% on this weekend last year when Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle was tops again in its second weekend with $3.53 million, off an impressive 39%, while Eddie Murphy surprised in second place with Daddy Day Care, up 25% in its third weekend to $2.44 million. For the first time in some weeks, a 2004 top 20 take was down on the same weekend from another year. This weekend was down 4.0% on this weekend from two years ago when Men In Black II scored $2.89 million in its second weekend on top of six separate films that collected over $1 million. Weekend Coming 8th - 11th July 2004 
Two new films hope to upset the top-five combination that has stood unchanged for two weeks. Nicole Kidman leads an
all-star, all-ego cast in The Stepford Wives that tells the story of career woman who moves with her family to the
well-reviewed country town of Stepford for a change in lifestyle after she is disgraced in her profession. Co-starring
Matthew Broderick, Glenn Close, Bette Midler and Christopher Walken, the Frank Oz (The Score, The Dark
Crystal) directed production had received more than its fair share of publicity before release in the U.S., but mostly
for reasons concerning the rumored on-set arguing over who's creative decisions the film was to follow.
The Paramount release opened to a decent $US21.4 million, although that really wasn't a relief to its financers who had forked out $US90 million to produce it. Holding power would dictate its profitability, as many $US20 million openers make it to $US100 million. Having launched in fifth position, The Stepford Wives' decline of 59% in its second weekend sealed its fate, with the film having earned a soft $US57 million after five weeks. Despite her Hollywood clout, Kidman has never anchored a $US100 million film, with Batman Forever being her only film to do it. Performances of late have been ok, with only the $US96.5 million of The Others justifiable as a hit. Cold Mountain earned $US95.6 million, although it cost $US80 million. It's a different story in Australia - aside from a slow performance from Cold Mountain - where Kidman's films have recently proven to be more reliable. Opening with $1.85 million, Cold Mountain was rather disappointing, finishing with $7.41 million, some 22% behind* the U.S. pace. Before that, The Hours opened with $1.32 million, holding well to finish with $7.11 million. Although it probably won't pass it by much if it does, UIP/Par will be hoping that The Stepford Wives can live to finish better than that $7 - $7.5 million range she has become familiar with. While the Shrek and Spider-Man sequels are still battling it out for chart supremacy, there haven't been many films targeted at the this demo since Raising Helen tanked, so it may be able to capitalize where other films may get hurt. The Stepford Wives could open with $1.7 million this weekend. 
Also opening is the historically inclined King Arthur. The Jerry Bruckheimer produced film which bills itself as
the historical telling of the King Arthur legend, sans the mystical elements for which it is well knows. Directed by
Antoine Fuqua (Tears of The Sun, Training Day), King Arthur stars Keira Knightley, Clive Owen and
Ioan Gruffudd. The Buena Vista release had hopes that people would be interested in this new take on the material, but
have otherwise been proven wrong both commercially and critically.
Either trying to build some interest going into the weekend, or perhaps trying to signal that it's the next buster on the blocks - as though that's what makes them so these days - King Arthur was released on a Wednesday, with what were pretty poor results. The film debuted to $US15.2 million this past weekend and had $US23.6 million including it's mid-week release. For a $US120 million film, it's almost as bad a performance as Vista's other mega-bomb doing the rounds at the moment Around The World In 80 Days. Combined with The Alamo which cost $US107 million before marketing, but earned only $US22.4 million, this is a year that they would like to move on from as quickly as possible. The Pirates of The Caribbean connections have done little for King Arthur in the U.S., and it will be the same story in Australia. The fantastical elements of the King Arthur legend are the primary reason that it is so renowned, to take them out defies a certain logic. Still King Arthur will be on screens this weekend hoping to make some money. King Arthur is a difficult animal for its studio, but they will be hoping it can pass the $0.59 million opening of their March release Hidalgo, and come closer to their $1.85 million Miramax release Cold Mountain. Something in the middle would give it a $1.1 million opening. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |