|
Weekend 8th - 11th May 2003
|
X-Men 2 was again the top film over the weekend, although its holding power was anythng but. Facing little new
competition, the Bryan Singer directed sequel lost 55% of its audience in what could arguably be called acceptable
figures. The launch last weekend was very large indeed, and a genre film like this always commands that its fans rush out
and see it in its first weekend. Judging by the increase in opening weekend figures over the first film from 2000, that fan
base has grown substantially. Still, the 55% fall was slightly larger than the steep 51% fall that X-Men 2 suffered
back then, despite a very good name for the franchise having been built in between launches. Collecting $2.74 million
through its second lap, X-Men 2 has seen its total zoom to a dandy $11.57 million, already having passed the $11.06
million final total of X-Men.
After two weeks, X-Men 2 is now running 2.8% behind the pace of Men In Black II after its second weekend,
having fallen slightly harder than the Will Smith starer’s decline of 46%. Good for a comparison because of their similar
$1 million Wednesday figures, X-Men 2 was tracking 13.5% ahead after last weekend thanks to a better opening
weekend, but that has been wiped away by X-Men 2's slower non-holiday mid week figures. X-Men 2 is not a
counter-program to Matrix Reloaded, it's direct competition. This weekend attention will shift away from X-Men
2, but how big its decline is depends on how many people can't see Reloaded. Sold out theatres for
Reloaded are a certainty, and X-Men 2 will be the first alternative. Last year Clones had three weeks
of play before Spider-Man came along, but still it dipped only 40%. X-Men 2's second weekend was not very
large, so a levelling of its decline should be expected, and may even go better than the 44% third weekend decline that
Men In Black II saw last year.
Compared to the U.S. pace, X-Men 2 is now tracking 21.6% behind* in Australia after two weeks. This appears to be
better than the 29.7% weaker* bow from last weekend, but with Australian previews counted in, is actually out from the
15.5% deficit from the close of last weekend. The second weekend in Australia was 31.5% behind* the second frame in the
U.S., easy to work out from the slightly steeper decline, 55% vs. 53%. In 2000, it was X-Men that held better in
Australia, declines were 51% locally and 57% in the U.S.
|
Opening with strength in second place was the New Zealand flick Whale Rider. Having been promoted very well in
theatres, if not anywhere else with its "Toronto Film Festival" trailer running non-stop in front of every film, the
flick enjoyed a solid $1.12 million opening. The film about a young girl who must work hard to win the approval of her
grandfathers seemingly endless dissatisfaction of her destiny as the future leader of their tribe opened on a wide 203
screens. Averaging only a mild to good $5,556, combined with last weekends solid previews, Whale Rider has a great
current cume of $1.73 million.
The opening for Whale Rider is very similar to the 1999 New Zealand sequel What Becomes Of The Broken
Hearted?, which collected $1.08 million through its first weekend. Opening 3.4% ahead and standing 59.4% ahead after
the close of the first weekend, Whale Rider is well on target to pass the $3.16 million final of the Once Were
Warriors sequel. Compared to my opening weekend forecasts, Whale Rider was on target with expectations to be the
best of the new openers and proved to be slightly stronger than, but still very close to my $1 million prediction.
|
Dipping one place to third over the weekend was How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days. The Matthew McConaughey and Kate
Hudson story about a guy and a girl who must make and break a relationship respectively because of two simultaneous bets
was off an acceptable 31% through its third weekend. Collecting $1 million, the Donald Petrie directed film has collected
a fair $7.97 million so far, and looks like a very good candidate for the $10 million club. How To Lose A Guy has
now become the highest grossing film for McConaughey in Australia, having previously passed the $4.4 million finals of
both The Wedding Planner and A Time To Kill, the $5.4 million on 1997's Contact and now the $5.7
million of U-571.
Last weekend How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days was tracking 17.4% ahead of Maid In Manhattan, and is now still
standing a similar 16.4% ahead. Third weekend takes were very similar for the films with How To Lose A Guy remaining
consistently ahead. How To Lose A Guy is tracking just 0.2% ahead of where Sweet Home Alabama was after
three weeks, down from the 15.5% lead it had last weekend. Having opened stronger than the Witherspoon flick, then
losing ground the last two weeks, How To Lose A Guy will steady next weekend when it betters the 46% fourth weekend
slide that Alabama suffered, on its way to a similar $10.6 million final.
Compared to the U.S. pace, after three weeks How To Lose A Guy is now tracking 23.3% ahead* of the U.S. pace in
Australia, off from the 29% lead* it had last weekend. Although How To Lose A Guy had a better third week hold in
Australia, the slide in the margin* is an ongoing affect from the far better second weekend it enjoyed in the U.S.
|
Having been upstaged by Johnny English, Anger Management has now had to concede to secondary status in the
race for the top comedy of the now long gone Easter holidays. Securing fourth place in its fourth weekend, the Adam Sandler
and Jack Nicholson starring comedy was off 40% for a weekend take of $0.54 million. Upping its cume to a good $9.74
million, Anger Management's current total is now tracking just 1% behind The Waterboy after four weeks and
23.3% behind Big Daddy, a deficit it will not recover from. Having flown past the $8.82 million final of his last
film Mr Deeds, Sandler's Anger Management still looks on target to find a final total very close to the $11.2
million of The Waterboy, perhaps a few hundred thousand lower.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Anger Management is now tracking 15.4% behind* the U.S. pace in Australia after four
weeks, down slightly from the 14.3% deficit it had last weekend. Comparatively the fourth weekend decline was a steeper
44% in the U.S., although the fourth weekend take was 35.3% weaker* here.
|
The other new opener of the weekend was the comedy flick National Security. Starring Steve Zahn and Martin Lawrence,
the film about two rejects of the L.A.P.D. turned security guards, who team up to take on a band of smugglers while also
avoiding the real cops throughout their oddly matched buffoonery, disappointed on entry as it collected a very mild $0.54
million. Opening on a medium 146 screens, the film averaged a sorry $3,363 per theatre. The opening for National
Security was nothing like Lawrence's most successful films from 1999 and 2000, but is more akin to his recent flops.
2002 saw a poor $0.36 million launch for the dismal Black Knight which went on to collect a mere $1 million and
What's The Worst That Could Happen? opened with just $0.22 million. National Security may be able to limp
to $1.3 million in Australia.
The opening for the film was down a commendably large* 70.7% on the opening it enjoyed in the U.S. While this is incredibly
large, its not surprising given that no Martin Lawrence film has, or hopefully ever will, eclipse the U.S. performance
in Australia. The opening was a cool half a million down on my optimistic $0.9 million prediction.
|
|
The top 20 films collected $7.38 million over the weekend, down 34.8% from last weekend but up 22.8% from this weekend last
year when High Crimes lead the slowest weekend of year before the storm of Attack of The Clones, with just
$0.81 million. The weekend was down 17.6% on this weekend two years ago when The Mummy Returns bred new life into
another slow May box office with a thundering $5.44 million launch.
|
Weekend Coming 15th - 18th May 2003
|
"The event film of the year" has lately been becoming an ever increasing phenomenon. Despite arriving sometimes three, four
or even five times a year, those event films are continuing to break successive records and set audience anticipation
alight. The Matrix Reloaded is 2003's second such event film after X2, but there's no doubt it has far more
appeal. But is it "the" event film for 2003? We have Hulk, T3, Matrix Revolutions and The Return Of
The King to come. Rating restrictions mean a whole lot less in Australia than they do in the U.S., especially for this
film, as its tame Australian M rating means anyone can see it. It will be a stiff competition between this film and
ROTK for the number one film for 2003, and Reloaded may need to step aside from the top spot for the summer
school holiday fuelled Lord of The Rings' final chapter.
Again Written, Directed and Co-Produced by Andy and Larry Wachowski, Matrix Reloaded sees the return of all of its
leads from the 1999 super-success The Matrix. Keanu Reeves heads as Neo in what is certainly his career defining
role, Carrie-Anne Moss reprises Trinity, Laurence Fishburne gives life to Morpheus and Hugo Weaving fills Agent Smith's
shoes again. Everything in the sequel is bigger, amplified effects and action sequences are adorned with a cast that
includes French actress Monica Bellucci as Persephone and Jada Pinkett Smith as Niobe. In the Matrix Reloaded,
Neo's near autonomous rule and untouchable nature in the Matrix world defies the grave reality in the real world. The
situation grows more desperate with Zion under imminent threat of destruction from a quater of a million sentinels
burrowing towards it. Neo must find a way to bring the Matrix down and save the real world before the sentinels reach Zion.
As with X2 two weeks ago, Matrix Reloaded is enjoying a release on the same weekend in Australia as in the
U.S.. Although this time it is showing one day behind, instead of two days ahead, in a strange move that disrupts the
normal Australian Thursday staring four day weekend. Back in 1999 The Matrix launched just one week after the U.S.
opening in Australia to what were record numbers. A $4.24 million launch back then counted as the 10th largest launch of
all time in Australia, now it currently ranks at No.37 and its eventual final total of $22.82 million is still number
29. Back then it rounded out at number 17. The Matrix enjoyed unparallel success in Australia, as a percentage of
its population, Australia was The Matrix's the most successful market. Not surprisingly this can be largely
attributed to the fact that the film was one of the first in a long line of big budget Hollywood films to be shot here,
which back then was an endless source of free media attention for the film.
The success of the film in the U.S., while also amazing, underpins jusy how good it was in Australia. Opening with $US27.8
million in April 1999 which back then was a record April opening, The Matrix showed amazing holding power, falling
by just 18.8, 20.5, 29.5 and 31.1% in its first five weeks. The film finished up with $US171.5 million in the U.S. and a
huge $US456.5 million worldwide. Comparatively, The Matrix opened 52.5% better* in Australia than in the U.S.
and finished up 33% better*.
Two weeks ago X2 was guaranteed uber-opener status in both markets. In 2000, X-Men performed well here, but
was much more the solid film in the U.S., which for precedents sake gave strong indications that again X2 would be
comparatively stronger in the U.S. That was correct. Australia was the stronger* market for The Matrix in 1999, but
does that mean that Australia will be the bigger market* for Matrix Reloaded this time around? A couple of factors
work both ways for this argument. Matrix Reloaded is just as anticipated here as it is in the U.S., the advertising
barrage we've had really hasn't been seen like this before in Australia. Pounding us for a couple of weeks is not uncommon,
but for two months we have been hearing nothing but Matrix Reloaded, having started well before X2's
campaign. The R rating the film has received in the U.S. will restrict the films opening somewhat, but it will still break
records for films in that category. The M rating in Australia will have a lesser effect opening figures. The simple fact
that the usual opening weekend frame has been reduced to three days has to mean a smaller opening weekend, but how much
smaller? People who would have normally rushed out on Thursdays will be cramming in with the regular Friday and Saturday
crowds, meaning very packed theatres and sky high averages for those days.
If the Matrix Reloaded's bow seems lower than what could have been, it will probably have been from the three day
weekend, as opposed to the Spider-Man curse. This happened last year when it had its opening weekend slashed on
what could have been, by being the second event film of the year. Matrix Reloaded has the anticipation of what both
Clones and Spidey had. The sheer presence of Matrix Reloaded means it will arrive unaffected by what
any other film is doing this weekend. Tickets have been on sale for weeks now, the last time that happened was with The
Two Towers. With tickets selling well and huge numbers expected, an opening weekend of around $10.5 million should be
in the works for Matrix Reloaded.
|
* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
|