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Weekend 9th - 12th May
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This weekend the combined starpower of Morgan Freeman, Ashley Judd, Mel Gibson, Guy Pearce, Denzel Washington and Arnold
Schwarzenegger meant very little to Australian cinema-goers as they together delivered one of the most dismal efforts in
Australian Box Office History. The first two names of that bunch have the distinction of headlining the new film High
Crimes, however it was the film that has gone down in history for achieving the lowest total for a number one film in
almost 3 years. Not since Two Hands in July 1999 has a film managed a top spot finish with less than $0.9 million.
Opening on a fairly restrained 148 screens, High Crimes opened in a weekend that in all fairness, was going to
produce a poor opening for any film unless it had blockbuster written on it somewhere. High Crimes didn't, and as
such managed to open with a very soft $0.81 million.
With an average of $5,531 per screen, High Crimes also set an 80 week low for the smallest average for a film
opening in the top spot. The film has done reasonable business in the U.S. and as such the film opened a large 42%
weaker* in Oz. All films outside of the indie circuit will fall sharply next weekend so don't expect High Crimes
to add too much more to its cume, and look for a final tally of around $2.3 million. Compared to my projections
High Crimes was only slightly under my $0.9 million prediction.
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Holding up in second place was the Mel Gibson war tale We Were Soldiers. Falling one notch after two weeks in the
top spot the Randall Wallace directed feature about the first American operation of the Vietnam war collected $0.74 million,
down a quite high 38% when considering the lack of worthy competition.
With a current three week total of $5.5 million We Were Soldiers is running a slight 4.6% ahead* of where the film
was at the same point of its release in the U.S. after a third weekend that was 10.8% lower* than the comparative U.S.
weekend. We Were Soldiers should continue with its large declines, and from now on will even have a reason for it
as it continues on its way to a final total of $6.5 - 7 million.
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Of the three openers that achieved very similar scores last weekend it was the middle child that performed the best this
weekend. The Guy Pearce and James Caviezel starring revenge thriller The Count of Monte Cristo fought its way to
$0.6 million and an 11 day total of $1.8 million. The picture was off only 29% from an opening that was less than
spectacular, but that was still good enough to be the best in the top ten.
The Count of Monte Cristo is currently running 22.7% behind* the pace the film set after two weeks in the U.S. The
bad news is The Count of Monte Cristo had a good run in the U.S. so expect the swordfighting piece to fall further
behind* and finish with a total of $3 million or so.
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The Denzel Washington thriller John Q claimed fourth place with a mild $0.52 million. Off a moderately high 39%
from last weekend, the film in which a father holds up a hospital in order to secure a replacement heart for his son
dipped one place from last weekend and has $2.1 million so far.
After two weeks John Q is a distant 47.2% behind* where it was at this stage in the U.S. due to a very successful
run stateside. John Q should also end up with a poor $3 million.
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Rounding out the top five was the woefully bad Arnie Schwarzenegger actioner Collateral Damage. Fairing the worst
of the week-old three for the second time in a row, its $0.4 million draw was off a steep 50% from last weekend.
Collateral Damage has $1.4 million after 11 days and will be out of the charts in two weeks, it may limp to a
sorry total of around $2 million.
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Elsewhere in the charts, the Josh Harnett film 40 Days and 40 Nights was off 38% in its third week for $0.4 million.
The story about a guy who plans to go without sex for 40 days and 40 nights has an ok $2.9 million and will end with
around $3.5 million.
Panic Room continues to edge closer to the $10 million mark as the Jodie Foster thriller added $0.38 million to
its vault for a five week total of $9.6 million. Off 36%, Panic Room may just limp over that mark and end with
$10 - 10.3 million.
New entry Mean Machine opened in eighth place with a mild $0.36 million. The Vinnie Jones starring film about a
soccer star who organises a match between inmates and guards after he's convicted of assault started on 106 screens for
a mild average of $3,432. The English import will fade quickly thanks to little word of mouth and will round out with less
than $0.8 million.
The Rock hasn't seen the same kind of success in Australia with his debut starring effort of The Scorpion King as
in the U.S., but it still earned $0.32 million in its fourth weekend for a good total of $6.3 million. The pic should end
up just short of $7 million, a far cry from the original Mummy movies.
Resident Evil rounded out the top ten with an $0.27 million third weekend take. The Paul Anderson directed film was
off 44% and has $2.2 million so far. The zombie film based on the computer game of the same name should end up with a very
disappointing $2.5 million.
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The top 20 films collected a mild $6 million over the weekend, down 20.4% from last weekend and off 32.5% from this
weekend last year when the May box office was awoken from its post-Easter slumber by the gargantuan $5.4 million opening
of The Mummy Returns. The weekend was down 31% on this weekend two years ago when the box office was still on fire
from the first big May blockbuster from the week before as Gladiator sliced down on a huge $4.3 million second
weekend total.
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Weekend Coming - Weekend 16th - 19th May
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It's been three years since the last George Lucas epic hit Australian screens in the form of Star Wars: The Phantom
Menace, in that time most of us would assume eager anticipation was the way of only the most devout Star Wars
fan. Three years of reserved trepidation would be considered just by the rest of us after what was a disappointing entry
into the series. Still, that matters little this second time around as Episode II Star Wars: Attack of the Clones
makes its way onto our screens. With only half the hype of The Phantom Menace, >Attack of the Clones doesn't
look to be suffering, and while reviews from the major critics have been mixed at best, Attack of the Clones
promises far more action than its predecessor. Lets face it, you don't go to a Star Wars film for its acting, its
only expected that the acting shouldn't irritate you to the point of distraction, we all know who that culprit was in
Phantom don't we. Attack of the Clones promises a larger scale, a more adult theme, more action and a
romance angle for the ladies. Written and Directed by the creator of the Star Wars universe, George Lucas,
Attack of the Clones continues ten years after the events of The Phantom Menace. After an attempt is made
on Amidala's life it's concluded that a political faction threatens peace in the republic beyond the capabilities of the
Jedi council to defend. Obi-Wan Kenobi becomes embroiled in a deceitful game perpetrated by Palpatine and Count Dooku
as the Republic approves a plan to enlist the help of a clone army created by Jango Fett. Meanwhile that little punk kid
Anakin has grown up and it seems he's only become more of a punk that needs a quick. Back from Phantom are
Ewan McGregor, Natalie Portman, Ian McDiarmid and Samuel L. Jackson, joining them for their first adventure are Hayden
Christensen, Christopher Lee and Temuera Morrison.
Attack of the Clones is yet to open in the U.S., in fact in one
of the closest simultaneous moves ever, the film is being released in most major markets around the world on the same date,
May 16. Movies have been rarely released simultaneously because of the marketing and logistical costs in making so many
prints of a film all ready to go at once, usually prints are exported from one market to the next to save on costs, but as
piracy becomes an ever bigger problem, its people like George Lucas who can afford to do it. Attack of the Clones
is opening two weeks after Spider-Man's record setting opening and its equally spectacular second weekend in the
U.S., and its a brave person to predict what will happen there this weekend. Clones will make it to No.1, but can
it unseat the web-slinger's two week old record? Doubtful. Filmed mostly in Australia at the Fox studios in Sydney, the
Fox film was budgeted at a mounty $US120 million, which leads one to consider the very handsome exchange rate the U.S.
dollar achieves here compared with the Pound when Episode one was filmed at the Pinewood Studios in England.
Advertising has been very subdued when compared to the blanket media and merchandising coverage of The Phantom Menace.
This time there are no fast food tie-ins and no soft drink cans with little Annie on the side of them. TV spots and theatre
trailers have been playing, but no where near as intense as previously. Over exposure has been a large concern for many
heavily hyped films recently, so this lower key approach is designed to not create opening records but to have a more
prolonged cinema run. That's a misguided tact for a film like this, it has a fan base to whom first week is a priority and
it's their word of mouth that lets a film survive or die quickly, not the amount of exposure it has received beforehand.
Episode II comes into a crowded market in the U.S., but it's the exact opposite here as Australia's depressed market has lead to
the No.1 film hitting a disastrous 146 week low, funnily enough almost three years ago, 9 weeks after The Phantom
Menace opened here. As happened in 1999, the No.1 film should jump from below $1 million the week before, to a
Forcefully empowered record setting opening as legions of cinema goers that deserted theatres through May pick up their
wallets and head for the multiplex to witness the next Jedi saga. Attack of the Clones will pump millions into
theatre exhibitors that have been praying for an event film like this since New Years. Thursday they will have their
wish fulfilled when Attack of the Clones opens. Can it be the first ever film to crack a $10 million opening in
Australia? Will it crack $US100 million in the U.S.? Will having Spider-Man open after Clones in Australia
mean that those records are reserved for the first blockbuster of the season and therefore its up to Clones to take
all the cream while it has a clean slate? All those questions will be answered this weekend as a one picture marketplace
gets set to send Attack of the Clones away with a year topping $9 million opening.
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Although it will eventually get lost in the crowds, there is also another film opening this weekend in the form of
The Majestic. Starring Jim Carrey and directed by Frank Darabont (The Shawshank Redemption, The Green
Mile) it focuses on a blacklisted playwright who is run out of Hollywood and suffers amnesia after a car crash. He
awakens in a town where he is identified as the son of a local man that was lost in the war. His return breaks the town
out of the glum slumber it was in and gives the town something to rally around and believe in. As a symbol of the new
happiness he has brought they decide to re-open the towns theatre, The Majestic. The Warner Bros. film was produced for
a large $US72 million and opened during the extremely competitive Christmas period in the U.S. where it stumbled badly, opening
with an extremely disappointing $US7.3 million, especially considering it's lead and director, and went on to make
a mild $US27.7 million. The trailer for The Majestic has been given a surprisingly large amount of screen time in
theatres for the last 6 months, probably a sign of shifting release dates, and has had its fair share of TV spots in the
last week. The Majestic can't hope for anything special in the face of Clones, and given the poor public
reaction to the film in the U.S., it may not have had a chance to do anything good even if Star Wars wasn't in
town. Given that, The Majestic may do some ok counter-programming business and find around $0.6 million this
weekend.
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* Based on an index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per
head. |
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