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Weekend 12th - 15th June 2003
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2 Fast 2 Furious again lead the charts over the weekend and also met expectations that it would suffer a steep
deceleration from its towering debut last weekend. The Paul Walker and Tyrese starring flick about fast cars going fast
with guys driving them, and crashing them, and hot girls driving fast cars has been living up to what it promises to offer,
despite its large fall of 59% over the weekend. Word of mouth is certainly not the killer for a flick like this, its was
always going to burn fast, as its attraction is arguably even more front-loaded and fan-based than a comic book film, but
in perspective, 59% is a very large decline on any scale. Collecting $2.34 million in its second weekend, 2 Fast 2
Furious has now collected a tidy sum of $9.79 million in just 11 days, and will have surpassed the $10 million mark by
mid week, along with $10.2 million final of The Fast and The Furious.
Depreciation wise, 2 Fast 2 Furious saw its screen average cut from $19,017 last weekend to just $7,802 this
weekend, and its decline was even larger than the notorious 58% dive of 2000's Hannibal. Last weekend 2 Fast 2
Furious opened a scant 2.6% better than last years sequel Austin Powers In Goldmember. However the Mike Myers
sequel had far better holding power, even though it itself was nothing special, declining 43% in its second weekend. After
two weeks, 2 Fast 2 Furious is now running 9.2% behind its pace, and will only see declines from here. 2 Fast 2
Furious will probably fall somewhere in between the $16 million of 2001's Tomb Raider and the $14.5 million of
Swordfish. After two weeks, 2 Fast 2 Furious is standing 10.4% ahead of Lara and 44.3% better than the Hugh
Jackman thriller, although those margins are both sure to fall with Furious' expected continued high declines.
Compared to the U.S., where 2 Fast 2 Furious also suffered a massive loss of audience participation, the Australian
pace is now tracking 17.1% ahead*, up from the good 13.4% better launch from last weekend. In the U.S., the film lost 63%
of its audience, but while it is certainly a huge figure as is Australia's decline, its not in any way a surprise. The
second weekend itself was 25.7% stronger* in Australia. While the second weekend of the sequel was up 28.2% on the first
film's second weekend in Australia, again confirming the strength of the film here, the second weekend of the sequel was a
worrying 6.8% behind the originals second weekend in the U.S. In 2000, The Fast and The Furious was tracking 17.7%
behind* the U.S. pace after its second weekend in Australia, level with its 17.6% slower* opening weekend.
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In the runner-up position in its fifth weekend was the legitimate hit The Matrix Reloaded. Despite what has been a
bruising for the film the U.S., its Australian performance has remaining consistently strong. Although it was off 43% over
the weekend, the Keanu Reeves starring sci-fi adventure collected an additional $1.18 million to boost its cume to a juicy
$30.27 million, breaking through the $30 million mark and becoming the 16th film to do so. The fifth weekend take for
The Matrix Reloaded stands also stands as the 15th best fifth weekend, just ahead of $1.14 million of
Spider-Man fifth.
Last weekend, The Matrix Reloaded stood 1.4% behind the fourth weekend pace of Star Wars: Attack of The
Clones. In its fifth weekend, Clones was able to score $1.21 million, the 14th best on that same highest fifth
weekend chart, just 2.5% better than Reloaded's. With Clones off a slightly smaller 42% through the comparative
frame, the Lucas directed sequel has slightly increased its lead again to leave Reloaded now standing 1.7% behind
after five weeks.
Compared to the U.S. pace, The Matrix Reloaded still looks bright, now standing 17.5% ahead* of the U.S. pace, up
from the 13.9% lead it had last weekend. The fifth weekend in Australia was again an amazing 105.4% better than what is
nothing other than a lame fifth weekend in the U.S.
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The next three positions in the top five were taken by new openers. All opening in relative proximity to each other, the
best of the bunch was the action flick Bulletproof Monk. Starring Sean William Scott and Chow Yun-Fat, the story
about a mysterious monk with no name who's responsibility is to protect an ancient scroll, and who also must find a
replacement protector as his 60 year obligation draws to a close, opened with an ok $0.85 million over the weekend. Opening
on 137 screens, the lowest count of the new three films, Bulletproof Monk's average was easily the best of them with
$6,243 per monastery. For a film with little conceivable plot given away by its trailer, the opening is actually rather
good.
However, the opening for Bulletproof Monk is somewhat behind other William Scott films like the $2 million opening
of 2001's Evolution but is above the $0.62 million launch of 2000's Final Destination. Respective end totals
for those two films were $5.82 and $2.7 million. Bulletproof Monk will probably have less holding power than
Final Destination, and is even has a high chance of not matching that final total.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Bulletproof Monk opened in Australia almost identical to the ten to one rule*, coming in
just 1.1% behind* the U.S. launch, which for a film that received scathing reviews in the U.S. and performed exceptionally
poorly commercially, is a rare occurrence. Put nicely, the film had abysmal holding power in the U.S., so even if it does
badly in Australia from now on, it has a chance to jump ahead of that current margin*. Compared to my opening weekend
forecast, Bulletproof Monk was able to grab a few dollars more than my $0.7 million projection and finish above
The Core.
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Having to settle for the second best opener of the weekend was the sci-fi flick The Core. Opening in fourth place,
the pic follows the adventures of a group of scientists who must travel to the centre of the Earth to avert a looming
disaster. Aided by an experimental ultra-high tech burrowing craft, the group must detonate several huge atomic bombs to
re-activate the Earth's spinning core who's natural rotation has been interrupted by the use of seismic weapons. Collecting
a very soft $0.67 million, the flick was always going to be a disaster. Performing with exceptional poorness in the U.S.,
its release date was changed several times by a jittery distributor who always knew they were not going to make any money
from the film. Opening on 171 screens, the widest of the three new releases, the film averaged a poor $3,939 per shuttle.
The opening for The Core is a little lower than the $0.75 million of Travolta's Basic, which opened two
weeks ago. Although the films share little in content similarity, they will make good partners once their likeness in poor
performance is evaluated. Basic looks to limp to just over $2 million, The Core will probably end up with
the same amount. Headlined by Hillary Swank, the opening of The Core is just under the $0.8 million final cume
earned by Swank's 2000 award winner Boys Don't Cry.
Compared to the U.S. opening, of which there was less forewarning about the precise quality of the film than Australian
audiences had, The Core opened 44.1% behind* the U.S. pace. Compared to my forecast, The Core was not even
able to draw the usual sci-fi fans that would welcome a film like this, and was down on my $0.9 million opening prediction.
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Also opening was the Vin Diesel starring flick A Man Apart. The film follows DEA member Vetter who after captures
the head of drug cartel only to see the illegal operation taken over by a more menacing honcho named Diablo. With Vetter
and co. now the new guy's trail, Diablo organizes an assassination, but its Vetter's wife that is killed instead. From then
on Vetter has only revenge in mind. Opening with $0.55 million, the soft opening for A Man Apart could have been
worse. A slow advertising campaign only needed to mention Diesel's name to get a few people through the door. It's true
he has his own franchise with xXx now, but any Diesel fan, and the man himself would have to admit that those
figures 2 Fast 2 Furious are generating, as with the pay check he would have gotten, look pretty good compared to
this effort.
For Diesel, the bow is at least better than the $74,000 Knockaround Guys managed in March and the $0.21 million of
2000's Boiler Room. The opening is very similar to the $0.53 million of February's Half Past Dead which
went on to collect a soft $1 million. A Man Apart should have a little better holding power and end up with $1.2
million or so.
Compared to the U.S. opening, A Man Apart opened 49.9% weaker* in Australia than in the U.S., a sure flow on effect
from the poor word of mouth it received as it plummeted by around 60% a week.
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The top 20 films collected $7.96 million over the weekend, down a large 32% from last weekend. The weekend was down 15.8%
on this weekend a year ago when Spider-Man led in its second frame with $5 million, down 52% while Attack of The
Clones followed in second with $1.21 million in its fifth weekend. The weekend was down 14.9% on this weekend two
years ago when Pearl Harbor kept bombing away in its second weekend with $2.97 million and Moulin Rouge was
dancing strongly in second place with $2 million in its fourth.
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Weekend Coming 19th - 22nd June 2003
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After a lull in the box office this weekend past, Jim Carrey is set to spice things up with his first new film in almost
two years. For Carrey, who as we all know has been away from his comdey staple a few times too many over the past few
years, returns to his roots to deliver us Bruce Almighty. It is also his first return to a true comedy since
Me Myself & Irene three years ago. Directed by Tom Shadyac (Liar, Liar, The Nutty Professor), the film
follows Bruce, a television reporter who has become increasingly disgruntled with his life and what he considers to be
undignified reporting assignments, and longs for something better. At the end of a bad day Bruce blames god for it, who
then appears before Bruce and grants him his powers to see if he can do it any better. The Shadyac-Carrey team has been
proven a success before with Liar, Liar, and with Carrey's three year absence from the comedy genre, its no wonder
Bruce Almighty has already become his second biggest commercial hit to date.
Having opened four weeks ago in the U.S., the $US81 million film opened with a mammoth $US67.9 million singled headedly
crushing the second weekend of The Matrix Reloaded which had been considered a shoe-in to rule the box office for
at least two weekends. Bruce Almighty's holding power has also been very good considering its hyper inflated
opening and has already amassed $US198.8 million and will could come close to sticking it to Reloaded's total by
the end of its run. For Carrey, Bruce Almighty passed the $US181 million total of Liar, Liar through the
weekend in the U.S. and also the $US184 million of 1995's Batman Forever. In the weeks ahead Bruce Almighty's
next the $US260 million of 2000's The Grinch, which like Bruce and Liar was also a Universal hit. For
Universal, Bruce and 2 Fast 2 Furious have already delivered the studio two $US50+ openers this year, and
this weekends The Hulk is sure to give it three the only studio to ever do so, and something it did in 2001 with
three $US40+ million openers.
In Australia, the appeal of Carrey is just as strong as it is in the U.S., if not moreso. After his great word of mouth
success with Ace Ventura, Carrey scored a one two punch in 1994 with the $20 million and $16.45 million finals
of The Mask and Dumb and Dumber in Australia. Respective totals were 66.8% and 29.3% better* in Australia
than their respective U.S. totals. Then in 1995, Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls launched with a huge $3.1 million,
at the time bettered by few films, one being the $4.33 million of that years Batman Forever. Those two films went
on to collect $12.32 and $17.93 respectively, 13.7% better* and 2.5% behind* respectively. His biggest hit in Australia
so far has been the $21.1 million of Liar Liar, which opened with a great $4.89 million and finished with $21.11
million, 16.3% better* than the U.S. final. You may cite The Grinch as Carrey's biggest misstep in Australia, its
huge successes in the U.S. had more to do with its theme that the star. Although trailers for the film have been nothing
more than just passable, they highlight exactly what people want from a Carrey film. Its U.S. performance is proof of that.
The publicity for the film hasn't been as high as it could be in Australia, which is somewhat strange considering this
country is a sure-fire market for this film to do very well. Bruce Almighty should be able to tackle the $4.89 of
Liar, Liar and has chance to dislodge X2 from second place on the charts for the highest opener this year
and summon around $6 million.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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