Weekend: 14th - 17th September 2006
The CG-animated Monster House was the victor of a weekend that saw two films
exceed $1m for the first time in five weeks, albeit by a narrow margin. Collecting $1.23m through the weekend, the Sony
Pictures family flick nixed Jack Black's comedy by a neat $150k, well clear when considering the soft numbers of the top
two. Formed around the classic childhood fear of the haunted house across the street, Monster House takes things a
step further and giving the house in this story a mind and life of its own. Opening on 261 screens, the widest count of
the weekend, the film averaged a fair $4,695, perhaps better that what might have been expected given that its launch
was outside of the holiday period in all of the country bar Vic. Including sneaks, the film's total is $1.28m.
Monster House's opening was September's 50th best, close to the $1.27m launch of 1998's Small Soldiers. The CG/live action flick held well, collecting $7.79m in Australia. It was 38th best on the 2006 Openers chart so far, coming in between a couple of non-comparable live action films, but a few notches south of fellow CGI flick and recent decent performer Hoodwinked. The Roadshow success opened to $1.33m in August and so far has collected an enviable $5.28m and will end up just shy of $5.5m. Monster House, thanks to its location, would in theory have a good chance of doing in excess of $5.5m with holidays around for another three or four weeks depending on where you're at, but the new wildcard this September holidays is the sheer number of cheap-looking, sounding, feeling CGI flicks flooding the market. Next week we have UIP/Paramount's Barnyard, with WB releasing Ant Bully and BVI setting The Wild free the same weekend. It's just thankful that Sony are also handling Open Season, for fear of competing against their own film that'd probably be amongst this September glut as well. Will families travel out four times to see what's on offer? Unlikely. We know from their U.S. runs that each of these flicks at best can hope for mere moderate numbers, so perhaps it'll more of a choice about weighing up which is less painful for the parents to sit through. More than one family film can succeed in a holiday period, but the theory - at least it should be - is that they'll succeed only when they're good films. Yet, Cat In The Hat, Scooby-Doo 2 and that Eddie Murphy crap all did well at the same time. Sigh. Compared to the U.S. pace, Monster House's launch comes in 45% down* in Australia*, although including its few bucks worth of sneaks it's tracking 43% behind*. The opening is down somewhat on the 7% better* tally enjoyed by the recent Hoodwinked. The margin is very similar to the 47% smaller* launch seen by Shark Tale, although that film went on to rise in weekend two and eventually finished just 5%. It's also similar to the 49% smaller* bow of 2004's very leggy The Polar Express, which could improve only slightly and finished 42% weaker*. 
Less wrestling extrovert and more reserved orphan, Nacho Libre opened in second
position with some rather disappointing figures. Starring Jack Black, the film about a good natured orphanage cook who
hopes to win a local wrestling competition to provide better services to the orphans, opened to $1.07m over the weekend.
The UIP/Paramount picture opened on a wide 231 Screens, although its average of
$4,654 was quite soft. While averages were similar to that of Monster House, as a live-action flick less influenced
by a holiday period, Nacho Libre's best chances were always going to be on opening weekend.
On the 2006 Openers chart, Nacho Libre ranks as the 40th best, coming in below the horror remake When A Stranger Calls at $1.11m and above the family adventure Eight Below with $1.06m. They each finished with $3.31m and $4.91m respectively. Comedy-wise, Nacho's opening was a small distance above the $1.03m of February's poor holder Just Friends, which closed to $2.89m. So where is Nacho heading in Australia? The film saw a great opening in the U.S., but subsequent holding power wasn't great, falling around 50% each weekend for the first five weeks, not good for a comedy. It could be argued that its potential audience is holding off, a smaller opening meaning better holding power in the weeks ahead. In 2003, Shanghai Knights managed good holds after a similar reserved beginning, ending up with $4.62m in Australia. Something like that might still be a possibility even with Talladega Nights opening this coming weekend, as Knights did so head to head with Johnny English. Unfortunately it's a poor opening that it will find difficult rebound from, positive Jack Black precedent or not. On Jack Black's filmography, Nacho's opening is merely half the $2.25m and $2.09m collected by his previous comedies Shallow Hal and School of Rock. Compared to the U.S. pace, Nacho Libre's opening comes in a whopping 62% weaker* in Australia. That's highly unusual for a comedy, a genre which usually does quite well comparatively in Australia. It's not abnormal for family comedy films like Garfield 2 and even Monster House to open much lower*, with a view to either rise or find natural holiday legs, but Nacho skews too old for that to happen. The opening margin* is similar to The Benchwarmers' 61% smaller* opening weekend. Was the marketing to blame for that one? Schneider and Spade have done well in Australia before, and Sony have proven they can sell excrement sandwiches at a Queen's luncheon without a problem. For Nacho, perhaps it was the setting and situation which didn't inspire, pro wrestling is about as popular as baseball in Australia, although a lack of affinity for non-Aussie sports didn't prevent The Longest Yard from converting here. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Nacho Libre's opening of $1.07m was only 71% accurate to my $1.5m prediction. 
Last weekend's champ John Tucker Must Die slid two notches to third over the
weekend, off a reasonable 34%. While the decline isn't too hefty, it is on the larger end for a film like this this time
of year, considering the total for top 20 remained static over the weekend and its target audience has little else to keep
them entertained. Collecting $0.69m through the weekend, the film about four girls exacting revenge on a shared cheating
ex-boyfriend now has $2.03m.
The film has certainly fallen behind the pace of last April's hit She's The Man, which had $2.64m after two weeks, off 28% in its second weekend. Tucker is now tracking 23% behind that flick from a 15% smaller opening weekend. However, it's looking good compared to the two-week pace of July's rude awakening My Super Ex-Girlfriend, now tracking just 5% behind compared to its 16% smaller opening. The Uma Thurman comedy was down a massive 63% in its second weekend. Compared to the U.S. pace, John Tucker Must Die is now tracking 29% behind* in Australia, out slightly from the 26% smaller* opening weekend. This comes about despite the second weekend standing 13% better* in Australia. While the second weekend was off 56% in the U.S., compared to the 34% dip locally, the first mid-week frame of $282k was a huge 66% smaller* in Australia, which is certainly telling of the decision to launch the film outside of a holiday window. 
The super-serial Al Gore environmental pic An Inconvenient Truth enjoyed
a decent first weekend in fourth position, opening with $458k. Drifting into 59 theatres, the documentary following various
facts and figures concerned with global warming and its ever increasing effects on our planet averaged a top-ten besting
$7,771 from each. Adding it last weekend's previews, the UIP/Paramount release now has $0.67m in the enviro-vault.
The opening was higher than the $366k of April's breakout doco March of The Penguins, which increased its screen presence and takings through that holiday period and became a second chilly alternative to Ice Age 2, collecting $4.28m all up. The opening was very similar to last year's comedy Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang, which bowed to $462k after a weekend of previews. The Kilmer-Downey Jr release had $0.54m after two weeks and ended up with $2.58m in Australia. Compared to the U.S. pace, An Inconvenient Truth had a little more time to work up greater force before it made landfall in Australia, with its first weekend bowing 238% better* locally. This compares weekend showings from both countries after expanding to at least 50 screens. The top 20 films collected $6.52m over the weekend, up just 0.1% from last weekend but down 41% on this weekend from Last Year when The Dukes of Hazzard hassled the top spot with $3.09m, pushing Charlie and The Chocolate Factory to second with $2.37m in its third weekend. The weekend was down 34% on this weekend from Two Years Ago when Garfield opened in top place with $2.02m, moving Dodgeball to second with $1.63m while Catwoman opened in third with $1.03m. Weekend Coming: 21st - 24th September 2006 
The chart should safely welcome Will Ferrell's comedy Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby as the new number
one this weekend, but will it be more of Nacho Libre underperformer, a You, Me and Dupree break out or just
something reasonable in the middle like a Date Movie? Co-starring John C. Reilly, Michael Clarke Duncan and
Sacha Baron Cohen, Talladega Nights is directed by Adam McKay, who directed Ferrell in Anchorman as well as
some Saturday Night Live skits. The film follows NASCAR legend Ricky Bobby, who with the help of his racing partner rarely
loses a race, that is until a French Formula 1 racer enters the scene and challenges his dominance.
Talladega Nights opened in the U.S. in early August with a chart-topping $US47.0m, strangely enough against this weekend's new local competition Barnyard. Still ranking as the eighth best opening of 2006 so far, the $US73m film has held very well and stands at $US145m after seven weeks and should eventually pass $US150m. That tops the $US137m of Sandler's 2006 comedy Click, ranking as the best performing straight up comedy for the year. For Ferrell, the opening easily topped the $US28.4m of his previous best Anchorman, although finals wise, it'll fall short of the $US173.4m earned by 2003 hit Elf, but still a very solid number two on his resume. While Ferrell has reeled out the hits in the U.S., his record has been less solid in Australia. While Old School was a small earner in early 2003, opening with $0.77m and finishing with $2.16m, it was an introduction of sorts for the actor to the Australian public. Elf was a break-out smash in the U.S., but while its $1.04m launch and $8.43m final was pretty good, it was far behind the U.S. success. But even with those good local earnings for Elf, something just didn't to translate into Ferrell credits for his next release. Anchorman was again a hit in the U.S., but it barely even topped the performance of Old School in Australia, opening with $0.77m and closing with $2.27m. Early 2005, we then factor in the dead on arrival performance of Kicking and Screaming. It could have appeared that Ferrell was a no go for comedy audiences in Australia. Then Bewitched happened. Of course, we could attribute every single dollar that it earned in Australia simply to Nicole, but at least Ferrell was there at the same time, meaning a new demo of comedy audience saw him. But do they care for another dose of Ferrell this weekend? Do they remember him? His memorable cameo in the highly successful Wedding Crasher wouldn't have hurt either. Add in that Ferrell is down in Australia plugging the flick. It's a tried and true recipe to help local audiences to feel important and it worked wonders for Dupree, which opened to $2.51m. Talladega out-gunned Click in the U.S., which bowed to $4.06m locally, but then again, Sandler rarely misses here. It this the first real hit for Ferrell downunder or will it find another muted reception? One thing is true, there hasn't been a decent hit in Australia for almost two months now, and if there's going to be one, Talladega is the only chance the box office has for another month, possibly even until December. Talladega has the comedy credentials, it is funny, but will enough people ever find that out? Going out on a limb and saying Talladega should be able to pull Scary Movie 4 and Dukes of Hazzard numbers to find a $3m opening this weekend. 
Also opening this weekend is the next CGI animated film of the production line, Barnyard: The Original Party Animals.
Featuring animation in the style of a primary school term assignment, the UIP/Paramount picture at least appears to offer
less offensive character designs than Shark Tale, but only just. With a voice cast including Kevin James, Courteney
Cox, Sam Elliott and Danny Glover, Barnyard was written and directed sometimes attempted funny man Steve Oedekerk
(Kung Pow, When Nature Calls). Barnyard follows a group of farm animals that go all Toy Story-like in
the barn when the farmer isn't looking.
Barnyard opened in the U.S. in early August, the same weekend as Talladega, in second position with a fair $US15.8m. The cheaply produced $US51m film went on to see very good holding power, having collected close to $US70m in seven weeks with a few million more left to earn. That puts it in a similar range of territory to the $US13.8m opening and $US80.9m final of Paramount's first all-CGI flick Jimmy Neutron. Against more recent fare, its running very similarly to current competitor Monster House, which opened to a more solid $US22.2m, but has rounded out quicker than Barnyard, now at about $US72m with two weeks extra play. What can Barnyard hope to achieve in Australia? Can it out do Hoodwinked? Both Barnyard and Monster House comfortably excelled Hoodwinked in the U.S., although Monster's $1.22m was a fraction below the $1.33m of Hoodwinked. The school holidays continue in Vic this weekend and expand into Qld, with WA, SA, NSW, ACT and NT the week after. That means prime conditions aren't country-wide for Barnyard, so failing to reach $1.4m on opening isn't a huge concern, it has several good weeks ahead, even against new competition The Wild and Ant Bully. Barnyard might open to $1m this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 ($US/$AU) with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 1.27/1 (£/$AU) with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |