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Weekend 15th - 18th August 2002
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Giving the box office a much needed boost after what was four weeks of decline, the new film
Signs single handedly injected some much needed new life into the charts. Opening with
ease at number one over the weekend, the Mel Gibson starring flick captured a very good $3.78
million from its wide showing on 335 screens. Co-starring Joaquin Phoenix, Signs follows
a family who begin to notice not everything is right with world when huge crop circles suddenly
appear in their corn fields. Collecting a good $11,289 from each of its play dates, Signs
scored the best per theatre average for a No.1 film and the largest amount for a No.1 films
since Men In Black II's launch six weeks ago. The opening of Signs counts as the
39th Largest Weekend of all time just behind 1999's The Mummy.
The wide deployment of Signs gives it the fourth largest screen count of the year and
counts as the fifth largest opening for the year so far, carrying with it the lowest per screen
average of any film to open above $3.5 million this year. Sneaking with some previews last
weekend, Signs has $3.92 million to its name through the conclusion of its first weekend,
a figure very similar to last years Planet Of The Apes' $3.98 million, a film which
opened 53 weeks ago last year. Co-incidentally enough, while the Australian figures are very
similar for Signs and Planet Of The Apes, those two films also share eerily
similar opening date and dollar amounts in the U.S. As in the U.S. though, Signs is
likely to experience much better holding power than the Tim Burton remake which sank fast on
its way to an $11.6 million final.
In the U.S., Signs easily scored the best launch for its writer and director M. Night
Shyamalan to date, excelling the performance of The Sixth Sense and Unbreakable
by 126% and 98.3% respectively. In Australia however Signs couldn't catch the opening of
1999's The Sixth Sense which still rules with $4.65 million, but did manage to unseat
Unbreakable's $2.4 million to become the rising filmmaker’s second best launch. Signs
should expect to see a middle place finish when final figures are tallied up too, as it will
be an almost impossible task to overtake The Sixth Sense's $29.1 million final, but it
should have no problem racing past Unbreakable's $8.7 million. For Mel Gibson the opening
of Signs marks the actors second best bow ever behind the $5.1 million of 2001's What
Women Want and ahead of the $3.3 million of 1996's Ransom.
Compared to the U.S., Signs looks very similar to Planet Of The Apes, in both
raw dollar amounts and percentage conversions. The ape fest opened in Australia a distant 42%
behind* the uber U.S. opening last year while Signs has opened a similarly large, but
more a little more restrained 37.1% behind* a U.S. opening that was also phenomenal. Time will
tell how well Signs will hold in Australia, but looking at Planet Of The Apes's
fast burn run in both countries and the superior performance of the film in the U.S.,
Signs could well see a final around the $14 - 17 million mark. Compared to my
projections, Signs was only a couple of notches shorter than my $4 million opening
weekend estimate and is almost identical when counting in previews.
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Down one spot after a great two week reign at number one was the Hugh Grant Starrer About A
Boy. The film in which a single guy devises a plan to get to know women at single parent
meetings by creating a make believe son continues to show very good holding power even with the
opening of Signs. Although they are very different films, a film like Signs that
sees such a huge bow would usually create at least a sizable distraction from the reigning
champ. About A Boy though was off just 27% through its third lap, signaling great
word of mouth. Raking in $1.1 million, the hold was the second best in the top ten, behind only
you know who, and has seen its total elevate to a very good $6.8 million.
With Signs opening and a trio of new films coming in this weekend, the box office charts
are due for a solid shake-up. Although About A Boy may owe a lot of its success to the
marketplace being so stable and empty over the last couple of weeks, the film should have no
trouble cruising past the $10 million mark by the end of it's run. Looks for About A Boy
to shrug off those threats and see continued good holds with an end total around the $11 mark.
Compared to performances of the film overseas, About A Boy is tracking a remarkable 142%
ahead* of the U.S. pace after three weeks from a third weekend that was a super 168% stronger*.
Compared to the U.K. performance of About A Boy, it is tracking only 7.8% behind^ the
pace it achieved after three weeks in its homeland, although this is slightly down on last week
when it was 4.8% behind^ after two weeks. The fall is attributed to better mid week sales in the
U.K. as the third weekend in the Australia was actually 5% better^ than in the U.K.'s. About
A Boy will find it hard to catch up to the U.K. performance as the film saw great holds of
below 30%, and in some weekends below 20% even when going up against Attack Of The Clones
and Spider-Man.
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Bend It Like Beckham was again the star performer in the top ten in its seventh weekend
of release. Down just 9%, the story about a young Indian girl forbidden to play soccer by her
culturally restrictive parents collected $0.61 million. Finally cracking a screen count of over
100 theatres, Bend It Like Beckham added eight more for a count of 102 and a sensational
seventh week average of $6,011. Bend It Like Beckham's total now stands at $9 million
with promise of many more solid weeks to come.
There's been few other films in Australia to rival the continued solid week by week performance
of Bend It Like Beckham. Gosford Park and I Am Sam have done well, but no
where near the power of Beckham. In the U.S., My Big Fat Greek Wedding has blown
everyone away with its continued success, in large part reflective of the kind of success
Bend It Like Beckham is achieving here. The film will be in the charts for weeks to
come and is still on target to give $15 million a scare.
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The Sweetest Thing continues to hold much better in Australia than it did in the U.S., off
what can only be considered an extremely surprising 37% for the film. The Cameron Diaz and
Christina Applegate starring film about a couple of sexually charged single women held onto
position four in its fourth weekend with $0.31 million. The Sweetest Thing now has a
feisty total of $3.5 million, some 46% ahead* of where the film was after the same point in time
in the U.S. The Sweetest Thing should finally see a decline of over 40% this weekend
with Sandra providing some direct competition.
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Word of mouth was only half decent for Nicole Kidman newbie Birthday Girl. The films about
a mail order Russian bride was off by a steep 43% in its second frame, down two slots to fifth
for a weekend take of $0.29 million. With $1 million in two weeks, Birthday Girl proves
that no matter who the star is, if the film doesn't cut it, people won't see it. There has been
no one hotter than Nicole Kidman in Australia in the last two years, so if Birthday Girl
was going to be a success in any country it was going to be here. Considering that, it's still
done exceptionally well when compared to the U.S. performance, running 50% higher* after two weeks
than its entire U.S. campaign, a run which can only be seen as extremely dismal. It's not a
success, but Australia has been Birthday Girl's best market, and although in dollar
terms Birthday Girl is nowhere near it, it is reflective of the path of Charlotte
Gray. That film was also largely ignored in every other market, but thanks to its local
star was given more attention than it would otherwise have had. Birthday Girl will
continue to fade fast and should finish with no more than $1.5 million.
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- In its fifth weekend the local film Dirty Deeds actually jumped one position to sixth
place, despite being off 35%. Rather than an exceptional performance for the film itself, this
represents just how weak the rest of the chart is outside of the top three. Making $0.24
million, Dirty Deeds has upped its cume to a reasonable $4.56 million.
- Largely overlooked by moviegoers, 52% of the audience decoded a no vote as Windtalkers
slumped to $0.21 million in just its third weekend. The film about the WWII contribution of
an unbreakable code has collected $1.8 million with a final total of $2 million giving the
film only 50%* of what the film earned in the U.S.
- The sci-fi comedy second run Men In Black II was off 47% in its seventh weekend of
release to $0.16 million. The Will Smith feature has collected a fine $17.3 million in Australia
and will disappear before it reaches Scooby Doo's $17.9 million. Still a very good
total for what the film is.
- People who saw the Kevin Costner flick about a doctor who is contacted by his dead wife had
absolutely nothing positive to say about the film, as Dragonfly imploded by an
incredibly large 66% over the weekend. Falling from fifth to ninth for $0.16 million, its
11 day total of $0.81 million is disastrous for its distributor who has hoped Australia would
be a moderately successful market for the film.
- Last weeks number nine, The New Guy, dipped one place to number ten over the weekend.
Normally a film that dips only one place signals a good hold, but the low takings mean its large
45% fall is partly obscured. Also collecting $0.16 million, its $0.54 million should grow to
$0.75 million in the end.
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The top 20 films collected $7.9 million over the weekend, up a healthy 20.4% thanks exclusively
to the entry of Signs. Showing just how much Signs contributed to the increase,
the top five was up an incredible 65.5% on last weekend. Compared to this weekend last year
the top 20 films were down 8.1% from when Planet Of The Apes ruled with $2.1 million in
its second lap, off 46% and Bridget Jones's Diary was down just 19% in its fourth lap
with $1.7 million. Compared to this weekend two years ago the top 20 films were up 19.6% when
a quiet box office was topped by Shanghai Noon in its second weekend with $0.94
million.
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Weekend Coming - Weekend 22nd - 25th August 2002
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Mr. Deeds leads out the three new wide releases this weekend. Starring Adam Sandler and
directed by Stevn Brill (Little Nicky), Mr. Deeds follows the story of a guy who
inherits $40 billion from his late uncle. A remake of the 1936 film Mr Deeds Goes To Town,
the film sports a shortened title and co-stars Wynona Ryder as a reporter out to do a story on
the lucky heir, but ends up falling in love with him. The comedic film was released by Sony in
June in the U.S. and was produced by Columbia for around $US50 million. The film opened with a
great $US37 million and has gone on to earn a very healthy $US123 million close to the end of
its run.
Mr. Deeds marked a welcome return to form for Sandler who had experienced huge hits with
The Waterboy and Big Daddy, but then stumbled with the expensive Little
Nicky. The success of those films in the U.S. was reflected in Australia with The
Waterboy opening here in January of 1999 with a great $3.3 million. The film went on to
earn $11.2 million here, or 30% less* than the U.S. take. 1999's Big Daddy built on
Sanlder's success in both countries, opening to a smaller $2.7 million here but having much
better holding power going on to collect $14.6 million, just 10.4% behind* the U.S. total.
2000's Little Nicky opened to a subdued $0.95 million here, reflecting the disappointment
of the film in the U.S. and earning a soft $3.2 million, some 17.9% weaker than the U.S. take.
Looking at the precedents set by Adam Sandler films in the past using the the ten to one ratio,
they have always opened lower in Australian than in the U.S. Mr. Deeds shouldn't defy
that trend and will open under $3.7 million in Australia. Why would Adam Sandler suddenly
become more successful in Australia than in the U.S. now? During the last four years his films
have consistently performed well, but still behind the U.S. pace*. Also, Mr. Deeds opened
in the U.S. during the summer holidays, the films has no such luxury this time out opening in
the middle of the school semester. Even so, it will do well and will give Signs a solid
battle for the top spot. Distributed by Colombia, the M rated film may open with around $2.5
million this weekend, just behind a solid second frame from Signs.
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Also opening is the more female slewed Divine Secrets Of The Ya-Ya Sisterhood. Starring
Sandra Bullock, Ashley Judd, Maggie Smith and Ellen Burstyn, the film was adapted from the
Rebecca Wells novel and directed by first timer Callie Khouri, who wrote the female empowerment
flick Thelma and Louise. The film follows a New York playwright who quotes her unhappy
childhood in an interview from which a fight ensues between her and her mother in Louisiana.
The Warner Bros. film opened in the U.S. in June with a healthy $US16.1 million and has gone on
to earn a very good $US68.5 million towards the end of its run.
Believe it or not, Divine Secrets Of The Ya-Ya Sisterhood actually has a pre-sold
following via fans of the book, for a movie with such a clunky title, that can only be a good
thing. Ya-Ya should provide an alternative for many people that have been waiting for a
dramatic type comedy like this, as there hasn't been a movie for that market in months. The
Sandra Bullock name will also help out the movies chances of having a good run in Australia.
Distributed by Roadshow in Australia, the M rated film may unspool to about $1.4 million over
the weekend.
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Also opening is the comedy Orange County starring Jack Black and Colin Hanks. Former TV
only director Jake Kadsen helms the pictures that follows Shaun who tries to get into Stanford
anyway he can after his guidance councilor sends in the wrong application. Produced for a low
$US18 million, the Paramount film opened in the U.S. back in January with a very healthy $US15
million going on to earn a very good $US41 million. Finishing off a trio of M rated films,
Orange County is distributed by UIP and should find it very difficult to compete with
Mr. Deeds over the weekend as wasted teenagers will already have chosen their film
for this weekend. Orange County may open with a soft $0.4 million this weekend.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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