The Box Office Report





Weekend 15th - 18th August 2002

Giving the box office a much needed boost after what was four weeks of decline, the new film Signs single handedly injected some much needed new life into the charts. Opening with ease at number one over the weekend, the Mel Gibson starring flick captured a very good $3.78 million from its wide showing on 335 screens. Co-starring Joaquin Phoenix, Signs follows a family who begin to notice not everything is right with world when huge crop circles suddenly appear in their corn fields. Collecting a good $11,289 from each of its play dates, Signs scored the best per theatre average for a No.1 film and the largest amount for a No.1 films since Men In Black II's launch six weeks ago. The opening of Signs counts as the 39th Largest Weekend of all time just behind 1999's The Mummy.

The wide deployment of Signs gives it the fourth largest screen count of the year and counts as the fifth largest opening for the year so far, carrying with it the lowest per screen average of any film to open above $3.5 million this year. Sneaking with some previews last weekend, Signs has $3.92 million to its name through the conclusion of its first weekend, a figure very similar to last years Planet Of The Apes' $3.98 million, a film which opened 53 weeks ago last year. Co-incidentally enough, while the Australian figures are very similar for Signs and Planet Of The Apes, those two films also share eerily similar opening date and dollar amounts in the U.S. As in the U.S. though, Signs is likely to experience much better holding power than the Tim Burton remake which sank fast on its way to an $11.6 million final.

In the U.S., Signs easily scored the best launch for its writer and director M. Night Shyamalan to date, excelling the performance of The Sixth Sense and Unbreakable by 126% and 98.3% respectively. In Australia however Signs couldn't catch the opening of 1999's The Sixth Sense which still rules with $4.65 million, but did manage to unseat Unbreakable's $2.4 million to become the rising filmmaker’s second best launch. Signs should expect to see a middle place finish when final figures are tallied up too, as it will be an almost impossible task to overtake The Sixth Sense's $29.1 million final, but it should have no problem racing past Unbreakable's $8.7 million. For Mel Gibson the opening of Signs marks the actors second best bow ever behind the $5.1 million of 2001's What Women Want and ahead of the $3.3 million of 1996's Ransom.

Compared to the U.S., Signs looks very similar to Planet Of The Apes, in both raw dollar amounts and percentage conversions. The ape fest opened in Australia a distant 42% behind* the uber U.S. opening last year while Signs has opened a similarly large, but more a little more restrained 37.1% behind* a U.S. opening that was also phenomenal. Time will tell how well Signs will hold in Australia, but looking at Planet Of The Apes's fast burn run in both countries and the superior performance of the film in the U.S., Signs could well see a final around the $14 - 17 million mark. Compared to my projections, Signs was only a couple of notches shorter than my $4 million opening weekend estimate and is almost identical when counting in previews.

Down one spot after a great two week reign at number one was the Hugh Grant Starrer About A Boy. The film in which a single guy devises a plan to get to know women at single parent meetings by creating a make believe son continues to show very good holding power even with the opening of Signs. Although they are very different films, a film like Signs that sees such a huge bow would usually create at least a sizable distraction from the reigning champ. About A Boy though was off just 27% through its third lap, signaling great word of mouth. Raking in $1.1 million, the hold was the second best in the top ten, behind only you know who, and has seen its total elevate to a very good $6.8 million.

With Signs opening and a trio of new films coming in this weekend, the box office charts are due for a solid shake-up. Although About A Boy may owe a lot of its success to the marketplace being so stable and empty over the last couple of weeks, the film should have no trouble cruising past the $10 million mark by the end of it's run. Looks for About A Boy to shrug off those threats and see continued good holds with an end total around the $11 mark.

Compared to performances of the film overseas, About A Boy is tracking a remarkable 142% ahead* of the U.S. pace after three weeks from a third weekend that was a super 168% stronger*. Compared to the U.K. performance of About A Boy, it is tracking only 7.8% behind^ the pace it achieved after three weeks in its homeland, although this is slightly down on last week when it was 4.8% behind^ after two weeks. The fall is attributed to better mid week sales in the U.K. as the third weekend in the Australia was actually 5% better^ than in the U.K.'s. About A Boy will find it hard to catch up to the U.K. performance as the film saw great holds of below 30%, and in some weekends below 20% even when going up against Attack Of The Clones and Spider-Man.

Bend It Like Beckham was again the star performer in the top ten in its seventh weekend of release. Down just 9%, the story about a young Indian girl forbidden to play soccer by her culturally restrictive parents collected $0.61 million. Finally cracking a screen count of over 100 theatres, Bend It Like Beckham added eight more for a count of 102 and a sensational seventh week average of $6,011. Bend It Like Beckham's total now stands at $9 million with promise of many more solid weeks to come.

There's been few other films in Australia to rival the continued solid week by week performance of Bend It Like Beckham. Gosford Park and I Am Sam have done well, but no where near the power of Beckham. In the U.S., My Big Fat Greek Wedding has blown everyone away with its continued success, in large part reflective of the kind of success Bend It Like Beckham is achieving here. The film will be in the charts for weeks to come and is still on target to give $15 million a scare.

The Sweetest Thing continues to hold much better in Australia than it did in the U.S., off what can only be considered an extremely surprising 37% for the film. The Cameron Diaz and Christina Applegate starring film about a couple of sexually charged single women held onto position four in its fourth weekend with $0.31 million. The Sweetest Thing now has a feisty total of $3.5 million, some 46% ahead* of where the film was after the same point in time in the U.S. The Sweetest Thing should finally see a decline of over 40% this weekend with Sandra providing some direct competition.

Word of mouth was only half decent for Nicole Kidman newbie Birthday Girl. The films about a mail order Russian bride was off by a steep 43% in its second frame, down two slots to fifth for a weekend take of $0.29 million. With $1 million in two weeks, Birthday Girl proves that no matter who the star is, if the film doesn't cut it, people won't see it. There has been no one hotter than Nicole Kidman in Australia in the last two years, so if Birthday Girl was going to be a success in any country it was going to be here. Considering that, it's still done exceptionally well when compared to the U.S. performance, running 50% higher* after two weeks than its entire U.S. campaign, a run which can only be seen as extremely dismal. It's not a success, but Australia has been Birthday Girl's best market, and although in dollar terms Birthday Girl is nowhere near it, it is reflective of the path of Charlotte Gray. That film was also largely ignored in every other market, but thanks to its local star was given more attention than it would otherwise have had. Birthday Girl will continue to fade fast and should finish with no more than $1.5 million.






- In its fifth weekend the local film Dirty Deeds actually jumped one position to sixth place, despite being off 35%. Rather than an exceptional performance for the film itself, this represents just how weak the rest of the chart is outside of the top three. Making $0.24 million, Dirty Deeds has upped its cume to a reasonable $4.56 million.

- Largely overlooked by moviegoers, 52% of the audience decoded a no vote as Windtalkers slumped to $0.21 million in just its third weekend. The film about the WWII contribution of an unbreakable code has collected $1.8 million with a final total of $2 million giving the film only 50%* of what the film earned in the U.S.

- The sci-fi comedy second run Men In Black II was off 47% in its seventh weekend of release to $0.16 million. The Will Smith feature has collected a fine $17.3 million in Australia and will disappear before it reaches Scooby Doo's $17.9 million. Still a very good total for what the film is.

- People who saw the Kevin Costner flick about a doctor who is contacted by his dead wife had absolutely nothing positive to say about the film, as Dragonfly imploded by an incredibly large 66% over the weekend. Falling from fifth to ninth for $0.16 million, its 11 day total of $0.81 million is disastrous for its distributor who has hoped Australia would be a moderately successful market for the film.

- Last weeks number nine, The New Guy, dipped one place to number ten over the weekend. Normally a film that dips only one place signals a good hold, but the low takings mean its large 45% fall is partly obscured. Also collecting $0.16 million, its $0.54 million should grow to $0.75 million in the end.






The top 20 films collected $7.9 million over the weekend, up a healthy 20.4% thanks exclusively to the entry of Signs. Showing just how much Signs contributed to the increase, the top five was up an incredible 65.5% on last weekend. Compared to this weekend last year the top 20 films were down 8.1% from when Planet Of The Apes ruled with $2.1 million in its second lap, off 46% and Bridget Jones's Diary was down just 19% in its fourth lap with $1.7 million. Compared to this weekend two years ago the top 20 films were up 19.6% when a quiet box office was topped by Shanghai Noon in its second weekend with $0.94 million.






Weekend Coming - Weekend 22nd - 25th August 2002

Mr. Deeds leads out the three new wide releases this weekend. Starring Adam Sandler and directed by Stevn Brill (Little Nicky), Mr. Deeds follows the story of a guy who inherits $40 billion from his late uncle. A remake of the 1936 film Mr Deeds Goes To Town, the film sports a shortened title and co-stars Wynona Ryder as a reporter out to do a story on the lucky heir, but ends up falling in love with him. The comedic film was released by Sony in June in the U.S. and was produced by Columbia for around $US50 million. The film opened with a great $US37 million and has gone on to earn a very healthy $US123 million close to the end of its run.

Mr. Deeds marked a welcome return to form for Sandler who had experienced huge hits with The Waterboy and Big Daddy, but then stumbled with the expensive Little Nicky. The success of those films in the U.S. was reflected in Australia with The Waterboy opening here in January of 1999 with a great $3.3 million. The film went on to earn $11.2 million here, or 30% less* than the U.S. take. 1999's Big Daddy built on Sanlder's success in both countries, opening to a smaller $2.7 million here but having much better holding power going on to collect $14.6 million, just 10.4% behind* the U.S. total. 2000's Little Nicky opened to a subdued $0.95 million here, reflecting the disappointment of the film in the U.S. and earning a soft $3.2 million, some 17.9% weaker than the U.S. take.

Looking at the precedents set by Adam Sandler films in the past using the the ten to one ratio, they have always opened lower in Australian than in the U.S. Mr. Deeds shouldn't defy that trend and will open under $3.7 million in Australia. Why would Adam Sandler suddenly become more successful in Australia than in the U.S. now? During the last four years his films have consistently performed well, but still behind the U.S. pace*. Also, Mr. Deeds opened in the U.S. during the summer holidays, the films has no such luxury this time out opening in the middle of the school semester. Even so, it will do well and will give Signs a solid battle for the top spot. Distributed by Colombia, the M rated film may open with around $2.5 million this weekend, just behind a solid second frame from Signs.

Also opening is the more female slewed Divine Secrets Of The Ya-Ya Sisterhood. Starring Sandra Bullock, Ashley Judd, Maggie Smith and Ellen Burstyn, the film was adapted from the Rebecca Wells novel and directed by first timer Callie Khouri, who wrote the female empowerment flick Thelma and Louise. The film follows a New York playwright who quotes her unhappy childhood in an interview from which a fight ensues between her and her mother in Louisiana. The Warner Bros. film opened in the U.S. in June with a healthy $US16.1 million and has gone on to earn a very good $US68.5 million towards the end of its run.

Believe it or not, Divine Secrets Of The Ya-Ya Sisterhood actually has a pre-sold following via fans of the book, for a movie with such a clunky title, that can only be a good thing. Ya-Ya should provide an alternative for many people that have been waiting for a dramatic type comedy like this, as there hasn't been a movie for that market in months. The Sandra Bullock name will also help out the movies chances of having a good run in Australia. Distributed by Roadshow in Australia, the M rated film may unspool to about $1.4 million over the weekend.

Also opening is the comedy Orange County starring Jack Black and Colin Hanks. Former TV only director Jake Kadsen helms the pictures that follows Shaun who tries to get into Stanford anyway he can after his guidance councilor sends in the wrong application. Produced for a low $US18 million, the Paramount film opened in the U.S. back in January with a very healthy $US15 million going on to earn a very good $US41 million. Finishing off a trio of M rated films, Orange County is distributed by UIP and should find it very difficult to compete with Mr. Deeds over the weekend as wasted teenagers will already have chosen their film for this weekend. Orange County may open with a soft $0.4 million this weekend.



* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.



The Top 20 Films


Written by Paul Boschen.