Weekend 16th - 19th December 2004
Ocean's Twelve didn't have much trouble fending off a rather low-spirited debut from Jim Carrey over the weekend.
The all-star ensemble pic, although down a large 50%, was well clear with $2.30 million more added to it's name. If the
gang of Ocean's Twelve were out to re-snag the same amount of dough they swindled first time around to pay their
debts, then things aren't looking too good for the crew. With only $8.71 million after two weeks, the boys are looking a
good deal short of the $11.04 million they had appropriated through two weeks with Ocean's Eleven.
Running 21.0% behind, Twelve is out from the 15.3% lower bow from last weekend. The second weekend for Twelve was 27.8% weaker than Eleven's, which was off a better 41% in its second weekend. The onset of Meet The Fockers, The Incredibles and Blade Trinity will be too much for Twelve to deal with on Boxing Day, meaning Ocean's Twelve will be lucky to crack $14 million in the end. Twelve is looking more like an I, Robot now, running 3.4% ahead of where the Will Smith flick was after two weeks, up from then 1.2% weaker opening weekend. The robot insurgence flick made $13.3 million all up in Australia. Compared to the U.S. pace, Ocean's Twelve is now tracking 27% ahead* in Australia. This is up from last weekend's 17% better* opening weekend. Although down by 50% in Australia, the sequel has proven to be stronger locally than in the U.S. where it was down 54% to second place behind Jim's new flick. The second frame was also 27% better* in Australia, matching the two week margin. 
Of the six new films in the Top 20 this weekend, only one of them did any significant business. Lemony Snicket's A
Series of Unfortunate Events opened in second position with a soft $2.06 million. The film about three orphaned
children who battle a nasty Count Olaf character who is constantly trying to get his hands on their inheritance opened on
243 screens over the weekend, for a so-so average of $8,488. Although 243 would classify as a low screen count for a
supposed blockbuster, it's average says it's was not worthy of anymore. Yes, it was the best average in the top ten, but
the screen count is actually greater than other previous number ones like AVP on 223 and Hero with 165, two
films that launched better and who made their mark through much better averages.
Coming in behind the $5.14 million of 2003's Bruce Almighty, Lemony Snicket's launch was the eight best opening for Carrey, although it far excelled his previous film, the $0.56 million of April's Eternal Sunshine. The closest it stands is next to the $1.80 million of 95's The Cable Guy, which ended up with $5.36 million. How will Lemony Snicket hold from here? Well it be a Cable Guy disaster, or will it produce some good legs? The lucrative period of Boxing Day and New Years is just around the corner so Lemony could end up as another Garfield, having launched next to its $2.02 million opening, with a promise of $10.4 million all up. But will there be too much competition? The soft opening for Snicket is surely indicative of an interest drain for the film, so it may not stack up in a weeks time when families are deciding on what to go and see. Compared to the U.S. opening, Lemony Snicket Australian launch comes in 31% weaker*. This is down on a U.S. debut for Snicket that was able to drop Ocean's Twelve into second place in its second weekend, and rank as the 133rd best opening of all time there. In Australia, its debut was the 207th all time best. This opening comparison is similar to Carrey's 24% smaller* opening for Bruce Almighty and the 31% lower* opening for 2000's Me, Myself and Irene. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Lemony Snicket's launch was $700K smaller than my $2.7 million prediction. 
The Polar Express chugged back into position three over the weekend, up another notch from last weekend and matching
the position it debuted in five weekends ago. The Tom Hanks film cemented it's title as the most enduring title of the
Christmas period, improving by a further 5% over the weekend. Collecting $0.86 million, The Polar Express' total
now stands at $6.36 million.
The longevity of business for The Polar Express has proved so beneficial for the film, that it made more money in the seven days leading up to the 19th of December, than it did in any seven day period in the four weeks before hand. Over the weekend The Polar Express passed Turner and Hooch's $5.43 million to become Hanks' 12th best title in Australia, and once it passes Philadelphia's $6.96 million, the next task will be becoming the actors 11th film to crack $10 million. Express may not be able to make it to $10 million, but never the less is jumped up from the bottom of the all-CGI film list, passing Final Fantasy and Jimmy Neutron's $5.71 million. Compared to Elf, Polar is now running 15.3% behind after five weeks, better than last weekend's 23.7% negative pace and likely to jump ahead thanks to receipts taken up until the day before Christmas. No new movies open this Thursday - they're all waiting for Boxing Day - so the existing crop have that day before Christmas all to themselves. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Polar Express is now running 42% behind*, a good improvement on last weekend's negative* 50% pace. The fifth weekend frame however was still behind, although at 10% behind* it was the smallest weekend margin* to date. 
Christmas With The Kranks as expected didn't fall too heavily over the weekend, but at 21% less than last weekend,
it appears that a good lack of word of mouth countered the unnatural boost that this type of film typically gets on the
weekend before Christmas. The Tim Allen and Jamie Lee Curtis Christmas comedy collected $0.66 million over the weekend,
to raise it's cume to an unholy $3.46 million.
That puts Christmas With The Kranks 18.2% behind Allen's Santa Clause 2 after three weeks, a change of direction from its 11% slower pace last weekend. Clause 2 was up a healthy 16% on this same weekend two years ago as it took advantage of the weekend before Christmas. Kranks will drop heavily this weekend, but may not be by the 60% as per usual, as it has two days of play before Christmas divides the weekend. Compared to the U.S. pace, Christmas With The Kranks is now tracking 37% behind* in Australia, a large improvement on the 51% negative margin* from last weekend. The third weekend was 12% weaker* in Australia, the least weak weekend so far. 
Dipping from third to fifth place was Team America: World Police. The puppet comedy was down 39% through its third
weekend collecting $0.51 million. Trey and Matt's satire about the state of U.S. politics in the world today now has $3.61
million in the bank, and should be able to eventually snuff out The Kranks in final totals. Compared to the U.S.
pace, Team America: World Police is tracking a great 33% ahead* in Australia after three weeks, up again on last
weekend's 21% better* pace and the 1% better* opening weekend.
The top 20 films collected $9.02 million over the weekend, down 15.6% on last weekend and down a mere 0.7% from this weekend last year when Peter Pan led at the calm before the storm with a $1.50 million opening ahead of Scary Movie 3's $1.42 million in its second weekend. The weekend was down 9.8% on this weekend from two years ago when Die Another Day spent its second weekend on top with $2.63 million, ahead of Sweet Home Alabama's $2.19 million debut in second. Weekend Coming 23rd - 26th December 2004 - All New Openers on The 26th Only. Although four major pictures are officially slated to open this Boxing Day, theatres in some states will be trading on Christmas Day, with these films included. Because I don't know exactly where and how much these films are showing on Christmas Day, predictions this week will be for Boxing Day sales only. Even with the Lord of The Rings series missing from screens, it will still be the most competitive and lucrative day of the year. Of those four pictures, their mid-weekend opening means that they'll each register only half a weekend in the official opening frame. For officialdom, that means that a one or two day figure will be what gets them in, or leaves them off opening the weekend chart. The wildcard is that this is a 6 day extended holiday weekend, with the Christmas Day and Boxing Day holidays belated to Monday and Tuesday. While this will give them a competitive holiday weekend total with an asterix next to the name, it won't bump them up an opening weekend chart in anyway. The last time Boxing Day landed on a Sunday was 1999, and openers then such as Bicentennial Man, Bowfinger and End of Days opened well, but failed to make any official opening weekend lists. 
Leading the pack is the guaranteed hit The Incredibles. Directed by Brad Bird, who tasked at the helm of Warner
Bros.' acclaimed The Iron Giant, The Incredibles is the sixth feature from production house Pixar and
distributor BVI. Featuring the voice talents of Craig T Nelson and Holly Hunter, The Incredibles follows
Mr. Incredible and Elastagirl, now living the quiet life complete with new family, thanks to the protection of the
superhero relocation program. Not content with his new lifestyle, Mr. Incredible jumps at the chance for some adventure
when he is contacted by a secretive organization claiming to need his help. It's not too long from there that the entire
family is roped into some superhero action.
The Incredibles opened in the U.S. in early November with a great $US70.5 million, a new best for a Pixar flick. The $US92 million production saw a very lucrative first four weeks, but has since performed uncharacteristically average for a Pixar film since then. Still, the film has managed to collect a solid $US240 million in 10 weeks, and should be able to add an extra $US20 million to that before film's end. That would put it within shooting distance of Monsters, Inc.'s $US255.9 million final, currently Pixar's second best performing flick behind last year's monster Finding Nemo, which caught a massive $US339.7 million. In Australia, the Pixar flicks have been just as successful. It did take a little while to get started back in 1995, as Toy Story's $13.7 million ended up 29% behind* the U.S. total. In 1998, A Bug's Life's $20.0 million finished a gallant 23% ahead* of the U.S. total in Australia. In 1999, Toy Story 2's $20.1 million finished 18% behind* in Australia, while in 2001, Monsters, Inc.'s $25.6 million finished right on par* with the U.S. final. The best to date though is Finding Nemo's $37.4 million, coming in 10% better* in Australia. While not a far ahead as Bug's margin*, the sheer enormity of the figures makes it that much more special. The best example to follow however is Monsters, Inc.. The Incredibles looks to follows a very similar end trajectory to that film in the U.S., and it also had a similar November release date. The same release date similarity goes in Australia, with both titles released on Boxing Day. Monsters, Inc. opened with a then animated record $1.03 million through 2001's Boxing Day, a very successful counter-program to the lethal Fellowship opening. It's weekend of $3.70 million was also the best animated opening to date. The Incredibles won't have a problem passing that opening day, but with just one day in the weekend, can it pass Monsters' weekend opening? Currently, the largest animated opening day is of course Shrek 2's $1.7 million. As part of a $13.2 million four day weekend, the opening day obviously wasn't too high on the agenda of audiences. For The Incredibles though, it will be. Will we have a new opening day record? Chances are it won't pass the $5.3 million Return of The King's record due to three other major openers, but it could chase up a mighty $3.5 million this Boxing Day. 
Next on audiences wish list this Boxing Day will be Meet The Fockers. The Ben Stiller and Robert DeNiro starring
comedy sequel arrives in response to 2000's Meet The Parents, which opened on Boxing Day of that year. Coming in
four years later, the Jay Roach directed flick sees the introduction of Dustan Hoffman and Barbara Streisand as Greg
Focker's parents. This time around it's time for Teri's family to get a taste of the welcoming nightmare that Greg
suffered through last time, although Greg won't be immune from the standard Stiller awkward situations either.
Meet The Fockers opened in the U.S. just this past Wednesday with a great $US12.1 million, and collected a further $US11.2 million on Thursday, which bodes well for the upcoming weekend. Back in 2000, Meet The Parents collected an ok $US28.6 million through its opening weekend, leading on to a brilliant $US166 million final for the $US55 million film. Meet The Fockers arrives at the end of a banner year for Ben Stiller, who has had some great hits with Along Came Polley, Starsky and Hutch and Dodgeball. Almost as prolific as Jude Law, the distinction is Stiller's films have actually made money. Meet The Fockers should top them all off and become his best film for 2004. In Australia, Meet The Parents opened with a great $1.23 million on Boxing Day, a Tuesday, going on to earn $4.1 million through the first weekend, the 28th to the 31st of December, and $5.04 million through the holiday weekend, including New Years Day. That $7.26 million first 7 days laid great foundations for the film to burn through January and end up with a great $21.22 million in Australia, some 28% better* than the U.S. final total. Meet The Fockers looks assured to do the same in Australia and surpass the $9.07 million of Jan's Along Came Polly, the $9.51 million of September's Dodgeball, and the great $13.44 million of April's Starsky and Hutch. As to whether it can pass the original's final, the inability for recent high profile sequels such as Bridget and Ocean's to do so leaves this possibility somewhat reserved. Still, Meet The Fockers should be able to pull in $2.6 million this Boxing Day for a great start to the challenge. 
Blade Trinity, the third installment in the Marvel series sees the return of Wesley Snipes in the title role, and
a rather tired looking appearance by favourite Kris Kristofferson as Whistler. Directed by David Goyer, the writer of the
first two Blade flicks and the upcoming Batman re-invention, Blade Trinity is helped along by the
introduction of Jessica Biel and Ryan Reynolds as members of the vampire hunting Nightstalkers. In Blade Trinity
we watch as Blade is set up for killing a human by a group of vampires. Exposed and pursued by the FBI, there's more for
Blade to fight now other than Dracula, who's been awaken by our vampire friends as a piece in the vampire final solution.
Blade Trinity opened in the U.S. in early December with a rather subdued $US16.1 million, the lowest of the series so far. Produced for $US65 million, Blade Trinity has $US39 million in two and a half weeks, and might end up with around $US50 million if it's lucky. It's a downturn from Blade's $US17.1 million opening and $US70.1 million final and Blade II's great $US32.5 million opening and $US82.3 million final. As a third in the series, Blade Trinity would be expected to perform under the level of the first two films in Australia as well, but it's Boxing Day release date could effect that. Blade opened in Australia in October of 1998 with $1.82 million. Its first place opening eventually saw it suck up $5.37 million. Blade II opened in July of 2002 with ann even better $2.53 million, going on to collect $6.29 million. Blade II opened with $0.72 million on its first day, which'll be one series record Blade Trinity is certain to pass. Drawing its fair portion of the genre fan, Blade Trinity could collect $1.1 million this Boxing Day. 
The stage show turned big screen musical The Phantom of The Opera also hopes to lure moviegoers away from leftovers
and the cricket this Boxing Day. The Andrew Lloyd Webber production heralded a revival in theatre interest in Australia,
which then subsequently abated and left the industry distressed after the curtain closed. Directed by Joel Schumacher of
Batman and Robin infamy, The Phantom of The Opera stars Gerard Butler as The Phantom, Emmy Rossum as his
object of affection Christine, Patrick Wilson as Christine's love Raoul and Minnie Driver as the attention seeking
Diva Carlotta. The Phantom of The Opera follows Christine, who after having been tutored for years by a mysterious
voice, finally finds an opportunity to show the world her finely trained instrument. Her gala triumph leads to her first
meeting with The Phantom, a musical genius who lives in the catacombs below the Opera House. Things become complicated when
The Phantom finds out that Christine is developing another love, and he subsequently develops a bout of psychosis.
Like Meet The Fockers, The Phantom of The Opera opened in the U.S. this past Wednesday. In the light the recent previous musical Chicago, opening figures haven't been that great. Although launching on a limited 622 screens, averages are quite low for what is pegged to be an Oscar contender for 2005. Opening with $US1.32 million and falling just under $US1 million through day two, it's looking like a soft $US5 million opening for The Phantom. A better guide here would be the U.K., where the film opened two weeks ago with $US2.3 million in fourth place on a competitive count of screens. Although it held well into weekend two, off only 23%, it only has $US6.20 million in two weeks. Things could pick up as Oscar time approaches, but so far it's not setting theatres alight. The Phantom of The Opera will most likely be the fourth choice of the new openers this Boxing Day in Australia. How it will perform all up is still very much an unclear question, although looking back, we can say musicals have been very successful here. Moulin Rouge had a freak advantage being an Australian production with Kidman in the lead, it perhaps a rare film that struck the right chord with the public at the right time. Chicago opened in January of 2003 with a great $1.85 million, and produced an amazing following 10 weeks of very low dips and rises. Ending up with $19.0 million in Australia, that was some 11% better* than the U.S. final total. The Phantom of The Opera has its fame, but it doesn't seen to be converting over to cinematic success so far. Time will tell of its legs, but it's launching in the best possible time of year for a great start. With screens in short supply, it will be The Phantom of The Opera that sits some sessions out with a lower count, it could sing up $0.5 million this Boxing Day. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |