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Weekend 16th - 19th January 2003
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Opening with a thunderous bang in first place was 8 Mile. Replicating the amazing numbers that the film was able
to surprise with in the U.S. last year, the Eminem starring film left no doubt as to whether it could go the distance,
opening with a spectacular $5.17 million. Directed by Curtis Hanson of Wonder Boys and L.A. Confidential
fame, he has re-united with 8 Mile's co-star Kim Basinger to deliver Eminem a film that his fans have proven to
so desperately want to see. The film that's loosely based on Eminem's rise to fame as a white boy finding success in the
black dominated rap scene of Detroit, opened on a medium wide 217 screens. While the screen count may have been low for
a film as highly anticipated as this, its average certainly wasn't. 8 Mile's average of $23,825 per screen stands
as one of the all time highest opening weekend, wide release averages on record, beating out such mega-hits as both
Harry Potter films, Spider-Man, Gladiator and The Matrix. While distributor UIP bumped the
release date up one week citing high demand, they surely underestimated it given the surprisingly strong averages seen here.
The opening weekend figures for 8 Mile allow it to stand proudly in position number 19 on the all time
highest opening weekend chart in Australia, having trumped the $5.11 million of 2001's What
Women Want. The opening was just below the $5.23 million opening weekend of 2001's heavily hyped Pearl Harbor
and is very close to the $5.1 million opening of Tomb Raider. Arguably drawing a largely similar audience, Tomb
Raider had ok holding power in Australia, going on to earn $16 million, currently the lowest earning film to open
over $5 million in Australia. 8 Mile's holds were noting to get excited over in the U.S., and reflective weak
holding power can be expected in Australia, especially with a fan base like Eminem has all rushing out to see the film on
opening weekend.
Compared to the U.S. opening, 8 Mile performed almost dollar for dollar*. Usually the ten to one rule of thumb is
a good measure, give or take, but in this case it couldn't have been more accurate with the opening in Australia coming
in a mere 0.9% better* than the awesome opening it scored in the U.S. Australia has the advantage of coming into the
Australia Day long weekend this weekend, so 8 Mile should be able to do better than the steep 62.2% decline it
suffered in its second weekend in the U.S. But if 8 Mile were to see depreciations match the U.S. after that, a
final total of around $12 million would leave it languishing far behind Tomb Raider's current low water mark. The
opening weekend for 8 Mile was able to race past my $3.8 million opening weekend prediction by a handy $1.3 million.
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Managing to hold onto second place in its fourth weekend was The Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers. Collecting $2
million, the Peter Jackson epic was off 40% and raised its cume to a massive $35.9 million. Currently sitting at position
number seven on the all time highest earners chart, The Two Towers passed Chamber of Secrets over the weekend
to become the highest grossing release of 2002. The fourth weekend take of The Two Towers counts as the ninth
largest fourth weekend take, just pipping out Attack of The Clones and coming slightly under the fourth weekend of
Fellowship. Compared to Fellowship which dipped a slightly better 36% in its fourth weekend, The Two
Towers is still ahead, but by a smaller 4.3%, down from last weekends lead of 5.5%. Although its not a gauge for what
The Two Towers will do this coming weekend, last year, Fellowship saw a bump in sales through the Australia
Day long weekend, up 15.3% when comparing four day to five day figures.
Compared to the U.S. performance, The Two Towers is now tracking 26.5% ahead* in Australia after the four comparable
weeks in each market. For the first time this is a rise over the previous weekend's tracking, up from the 23.3% lead* of
last weekend. Although the fourth weekend dip of 41% was only slightly larger than Australia's fourth weekend dip, the
weekend take itself was 35.5% better* than that of the U.S. Also, the whole country is still enjoying school holidays in
Australia, whereas the U.S. has returned to school after the Christmas/New Years break allowing for better mid week business
here. Australia should witness another rise* this coming weekend.
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Catch Me If You Can fell from first place to third over the weekend, having been caught by both 8 Mile and
The Two Towers. The Leonardo DiCaprio and Tom Hanks starring film about Frank Abagnale, a guy who began a life of
fraud at 16 and soon became an expert at it, and the FBI agent assigned to catch him, swindled $2 million through its
second try. The film was off by a hefty 44%, large considering that the debut last weekend wasn't break-out large and
reviews and word for the film had been quite good. Nonetheless, the film has upped its total to a solid $7.1 million in 11
days, and will have no problem breaking through $10 million in Australia, and should perhaps even get close to that after
this coming weekend.
Director Steven Speilberg's Minority Report was off by 18% in its second weekend for a cume of $6 million, and that
ended up with $11.7 million. Opening similar to Gone in 60 Seconds last weekend, Catch Me If You Can wasn't
able to match its 37% decline or mid-week business, falling from opening 2.7% behind to now stand 13.4% behind. Like most
films this weekend, Australia Day will be kind, so Catch Me If You Can has a good chance to reverse that, and
finishing up close to the $14 million final of the car heist pic is still possible.
Although the opening weekend of Catch Me If You Can was 18% better* in Australia, the film was 27.1% behind* at the
close of the first weekend, thanks to the film opening on the Wednesday in the U.S. After two weeks of play Catch Me If
You Can is still standing 27.1% behind* the U.S. pace. The film has been falling 30% or less in the U.S., indicating
a better reception for the film in the there, although it hasn't yet had to contend with an opener of the magnitude of
8 Mile through its four weekend run drawing audience share away. As in competition with 60 Seconds locally,
Catch Me If You Can should see a reduction in that 27.1% deficit* after this weekend, despite that great 30% dip
it saw through weekend three in the U.S.
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Two Weeks Notice became the first release of 2003 to join the $10 million club over the weekend, although it did
complete that during mid-week. The Sandra Bullock and Hugh Grant film about a millionaire and his lawyer who, after many
years in each other's company finally realise they love each other, despite their conflicting personalities, collected
$1.34 million through its third weekend. Off 42%, the film now has a total of $11.66 million. Two Weeks Notice is
now tracking 2.5% behind the pace of Bullock's Miss Congeniality after three weeks, down from the 1.1% advantage it
had last weekend. Miss Congeniality was off a similar 42% through its third weekend but with a much higher $1.99
million take. Two Weeks Notice will have one last rush to keep on track with Congeniality this weekend, but
should fall behind after that as it struggles in vain to get anywhere near that $20 million total.
Compared to Two Weeks Notice in the U.S., the film is now tracking 69.4% ahead* after three weeks, down from the
111.6% advantage it has last weekend. This is due to a much better hold in the U.S. through its third weekend, off just
28.3%, with that third weekend take being a much smaller 20.7% ahead* of the U.S. third weekend, at least when compared
to the second weekend which was 49% better*. Even when all current cumes are compared, Australia is tracking 36.2% ahead*,
with the U.S. having two weekend up on the Australian pace, echoing just how strong the Australian performance is.
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In fifth position was the kids flick Spy Kids 2. Off 36% in its second weekend, the Robert Rodriguez written and
directed sequel continued to impress finding its way to $1.2 million for the weekend and upping its cume to a robust
$4.49 million. The sequel is already well on its way to passing the $6.68 million final of 2001's Spy Kids and
should pass that mark at the close of this coming weekend. Compared to the U.S. performance, Spy Kids 2 is currently
tracking 1.5% behind* the two week pace it had in the U.S. back in August. This is down from the 13.7% better launch it
enjoyed last weekend and in spite of the 6.9% better second weekend in Australia mainly due to better mid week sales in
the U.S. as it was still playing through the summer holidays.
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- Analyze That was another opener of the weekend, although its sixth place bow was really nothing to write home
about, even performing weaker in Australia than it did in the U.S. The Billy Crystal and Robert DeNiro film that follows
up on the lives of a mobster and his psychiatrist only managed to dupe $0.96 million out of the pockets of honest movie
goers over the weekend. Opening on a medium 186 screens, Analyze That saw a weak average of $5,485, with only the
top ten's kids films and a 6 week old Bond coming in under that. The launch was down 33% on the $1.45 million opening of
1999's Analyze This, but Analyze That will struggle to maintain that gap up until close, and fall to about
50% of the $8 million that Analyze This ended up with. Compared to the U.S. performance of Analyze That, the
film opened 12.7% weaker* in Australia, probably thanks to the pull of 8 Mile which would have occupied one of
Analyze That's potential main demographics. Competition is probably to blame for the dismal performance of the film
in both markets. Compared to my opening weekend projections, Analyze That came in under my $1.2 million forecast.
- The Quiet American was the third of the four new openers to secure a top ten finish this weekend. The Phillip Noyce
directed film stars Michael Caine and Brendan Fraser in a story about a love triangle set in Vietnam as the liberation
from the French takes place in 1952. The film opened on 61 screens with a great average of $12,883, the second best in
release outside of IMAX for a weekend take of $0.78 million. With previews, the film has $0.8 million so far and was a
fantastic launch for such a limited release.
- Harry Potter and The Chamber of Secrets dipped from fifth the eighth over the weekend collecting $0.55 million.
The Daniel Radcliff starring sequel now has a good $35.4 million to its name and stands as number eight on the all time
highest earners list in Australia. The eighth weekend take was 35.4% down on the comparative weekend for The Philosopher's
Stone and stands 8.7% behind the pace of the original after that same period of time.
- The fourth new opener in the top ten this weekend was Like Mike. The story about a punk who finds a pair of
magical shoes that allow his to stick it to the best in the NBA was able to dunk $0.51 million over the weekend. Starting
on a medium wide 154 screens, the $3,362 average wasn't really that great. Spy Kids 2 is sapping up most of the
post Potter family business, not leaving much room for duds like this. The opening of Like Mike was a little
below my $0.7 million forecast.
- Die Another Day managed to live through one more weekend to make it six in the top ten. Dipping three places, the
film collected $0.38 million for a spankingly nice cume of $17.7 million. Out of the top ten next weekend, Die Another
Day has easily become the most successful Bond in Australia and should finish with $18.5 million.
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The top 20 films collected $17 million over the weekend, up a slight 0.6% on last weekend. The weekend was up by a healthy
32.8% on this weekend a year ago when no new major openers could unseat Ocean's Eleven's second weekend take of
$3.1 million for the top spot. Fellowship was about to take second with $2.1 million in its fourth while
Monsters, Inc. was off just 30% in its fourth with $1.62 million. The weekend was up by 14% on this weekend two
years ago when Tom Hanks lead the field in Cast Away's opening weekend with $4.5 million. What Women Want
dipped to second in its second weekend was a good $3 million while Arnie's attempt The Sixth Day opened in third
with a soft $1.27 million.
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Weekend Coming 23rd - 27th January 2003
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Two films go into wide release this weekend hoping to score some of the Australia Day pie. Colombia release the Eddie Murphy
and Owen Wilson spy comedy I Spy. Directed by Betty Thomas (28 Days, Doctor Dolittle) the film follows
secret agent Alex Scott who is assigned to recover the Switchblade, the U.S.' most advanced stealth fighter which has been
stolen. However, he is teamed up with a loud mouthed civilian for some reason, and together they must bring a corrupt arms
dealer to justice. I Spy is based no the television series of the same name and capped the 2002 U.S. release schedule
as a year of endless spy films, perhaps reasoning for what was only a mild performance of the film in the U.S.
The film was produced by Sony for a large $US70 million and opening with a soft $12.75 million. The film has little holding
power going on to earn a final total of $US33.1 million. Considered disappointing at best, the film counts as yet another
bad performance for Murphy who in 2002 had Pluto Nash nudge Cutthroat Island from the top off the all time
greatest bombs and comes in below the $38 million of last May's Showtime, which by any measure was a very large
failure. Owen Wilson on the other hand has had some better fortune of late with Behind Enemy Lines collecting $US60
million and the upcoming Shanghai Knights looking to buck the trend of comedy sequels crumbling.
In Australia, Eddie Murphy has done no better. Pluto Nash was sold as "See Eddie Murphy in 'Insert loud mouthed
role here' in space" and opened with a barely there $0.24 million and was out of the charts two weeks later. Showtime
on the other hand did better, opening with $1.5 million and going on to earn an ok $4.75 million, 25% up* on the U.S.
take. Owen Wilson also saw a very similar opening for Behind Enemy Lines, which opened with $1.5 million and also
went on to score a $4.72 million final. Does this mean something for I Spy? The film has been well promoted in
Australia, with adds that even focus on the film itself. There is a lot of competition at the moment, but the long weekend
will add some disposable fuel to the fire. I Spy may open with $1.6 million through the five day period.
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Also opening is the musical Chicago starring Catherine Zeta Jones, Renee Zellweger and Richard Gere. The Rob
Marshall directed musical of the Broadway play of the same same follows Velma and Roxie, two showbiz girls in jail for
murder. Produced after the critical if not commercial U.S. success of Moulin Rouge, Chicago has already been
performing well in the awards arena, taking out Best Film, Best Actress for Zellweger and Best Actor for Gere - all in the
musical or comedy categories, and is a hopeful for Oscar contention.
The film opened back in December on a limited 77 screens to contend for the 2003 Academy Awards with $US2 million. Rising
in screen count since then, the film collected $US8 million in its fourth weekend, the best take to date for the film.
The film is till taking generous averages and combined with Awards statues, should continue to make some good figures. With
$US28.7 million so far, the film should easily pass the $US57.4 million of Moulin Rouge.
In Australia on the other hand, Chicago has no chance of beating the $27.7 million Moulin Rouge made here,
but still should pull some good final figures. The film has been promoted here for a couple of weeks now and should
find a supportive initial audience, and should grow from there. Chicago may open with $0.8 million this weekend,
depending on the screen count.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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