Weekend 16th - 19th June 2005
It was an interesting weekend at the Australian box office, with compelling stories of success and failure available in
equal measure. Most of the country's school holidays have not yet started, but that didn't count as much of a factor in
either failing to energize the family film of the weekend or protecting the expected top spot launch of the older-skewing
action film. It was quite the opposite, and while both of the weekend's new blockbusters opened in a similar range, their
opening weekend figures tell very different stories.
Madagascar, the 17th All-CGI film to be released in Australia caused a massive stir over the weekend, stealing a surprising top spot opening from its much-hyped competition. Opening with $4.59m, Madagascar's launch follows on from a very successful round of previews from last weekend where it scored $1.94m, taking advantage of the Queen's Birthday holiday. Add in Tasmania's solo previews from the weekend before, and Madagascar has an impressive tally of $7.83m at the close of its first weekend. The opening for Madagascar counts as the 47th highest of All Time in Australia, nudging out Van Helsing's $4.59m and just missing I, Robot's $4.63m, both from last year. For the month of June it's the 13th highest behind the $4.89m of Liar, Liar. Opening on a very wide 365 Screens, the 29th widest launch since 1999, it seems exhibitors were unsure of which film of the weekend was going to draw the largest crowd, so instead of making a distinction, both films opened horse a piece with each other in number of screens, which turned out to be a smart choice when looking at the similarity of opening figures between the two. Averaging $12,595, Madagascar's spread is the 83rd highest for wide releases, but averaging more than all recent CGI films aside from Shrek 2 and Finding Nemo. So what does that mean for Madagascar? Having scored the third best opening weekend figure of all animated CGI films with it's $4.59m, and the third best opening average, does it have a chance of passing the $32.04m final of current third placed title holder Shrek? It's currently just ahead of the $7.60m that the Mike Myers original had after its first weekend, and with the school holidays ahead, it doesn't need to show that same level extra-ordinary holding power to remain consistent. Shrek was a freak of its time though, and Madagascar is following a well-worn CGI trail that might not excite for as long. It looks like a sure bet for $20m however, becoming a welcome addition after both Shark Tale and Robots fell short of the list. Compared to the U.S. opening, Madagascar's launch comes in very close, just 3% down* in Australia. It's actually the very first CGI-animated film to open in a similar range to its U.S. precedent, with weekends sometimes far in front* (Shrek 2, Finding Nemo) or quite an amount smaller* (Robots, Shark Tale). Films usually steady from there, and that's the same story for Madagascar. Counting in previews, Madagascar stands 66% ahead* at the close of the first weekend, although that margin will probably be slashed by next weekend, even if the second Australian weekend proves to be any strong degree superior*, which it will be. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Madagascar's figure of $4.59m was pretty close to my $4.3m prediction, or 94% accurate. 
The second half of the weekend's top equation was the sequel Batman Begins. With
an extensive marketing campaign and media exposure leaving little confusion as to exactly which film was expected to take
weekend honours, audiences were of differing opinion, undecided themselves as to whether it was worth attending Warner
Bros.' revamped Dark Knight tale. They were out in droves, but building a weekend debut of $4.14m meant it was a second
choice for most and a choice not worth considering for others - at least through opening. Whatever positive spin one could
choose to shower on Batman Begins' launch, it stands as second placed entry for what was essentially one of the
biggest films of the year, and certainly lower than its distributor would have hoped.
As the 31st highest, Batman Begins' opening Screen Count of 361 was just higher than the 358 that the comic sequel X-Men 2 launched on in 2003, while its opening weekend Average of $11,473 is close to other high budget-soft showing films like Planet of The Apes and Signs. Batman Begins will be hoping for better holding power. All but the original Batman opened in June, where it ranks as the 15th best for the month. The opening for Batman Begins enters the all-time Australian Opening Weekend chart at a lowly 60th best, in between the ancient $4.08m opening of 1998's Deep Impact and the $4.18m of 1997's Bean. As a re-invention of the Series and a right insult, Batman Begins' opening caused less of a stir than Schumacher's 1995's gothic-turned-camp Batman Forever, which launched with $4.33m, then the biggest opening weekend of all time in Australia. In 1995, Batman was still a valuable property, a cast of the moment that included Jim Carrey at his popular prime, a Nicole Kidman love interest for a new Batman and the introduction of Robin all combined to build a legitimate interest, warranted or not. Begins however tops the $3.75m of 1997's Batman and Robin although not by much, and basically doubles the $2.37m of 1989's Batman and that of the $1.86m of 1992's Batman Returns. Where will Batman Begins go from here? Are consumers still somewhat resentful of the Batman legacy? Upon opening one could easily suggest Begins failed in its quest to resurrect the series as a cash machine for WB, but can Begins turn that around? Over the last few years it's become common place for film to collect between 30 - 35% of their entire theatrical gross in their opening weekends, with the well-received X-Men and Spider-Man films in that range. The other four Batman films, in order of production, collected 17, 19, 24 and 28% of their final tallies in their opening weekends, a trend of growth that doesn't sit well for Begins. Most of those were over a decade ago, and trends have changed for the poorer since then. If Begins holds at 30%, then it'll collect $13.7m all up, very close to where 1989's Batman ended. It's a somber opening for Begins based directly on a lack of excitement for the picture. The film itself isn't that strong, and it's not proving to be a wide scale crowd pleaser. Begins' particular demographic aim means it's pulling softly from the important family market, which is a lamentable miss through a holiday period. There's no real reason to suggest that it'll hold better than any of the recent strong comic-book performers, which is sure to be disappointing for Warner Bros. Compared to the U.S. pace, Batman Begins' opening weekend frame comes in 12% weaker* in Australia, although when the U.S.' additional Wednesday opening is added in, Batman Begins closes 42% down* in Australia leading into the first mid-week frame. Compared to recent well-known franchises, it's better than the 19% smaller* opening that Spider-Man 2 saw and the 30% weaker* bow of X-Men 2. This doesn't necessarily mean it's doing comparatively* well here, more so that it's just below expectations, in both countries. Back in 1995 Batman Forever opened 18% weaker* locally, although it finished just 3% behind*. In 1997 Batman and Robin bowed 12% weaker* and concluded 26% ahead*. Batman Begins faces no new direct competition this weekend, with Herbie colliding with Madagascar more than anything else, while Smith, Yard and Sith all remain key competition. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Batman Begins' $4.14m opening was only 71% accurate to a weighted $5.8m prediction. 
Mr. and Mrs. Smith lost its top spot footing from last weekend, although that
was expected. The Doug Liman directed film about a married couple who after 5 or 6 years of marriage discover that they
are both elite assassins, slipped by 53% over the weekend to $3.04m. The heavily publicised flick is still steaming along
thanks to its two headline-grabbing stars, with $12.02m to its name after 11 days. On the
All-Time list in Australia, Smith currently occupies position 194.
The puts Mr. and Mrs. Smith in the same league as other blockbuster films such as The Day After Tomorrow and Meet The Parents, each of which cleared $20m. Mr. and Mrs. Smith also slightly ahead, less than 1%, of the 2001 romantic comedy smash What Women Want. The Helen Hunt-Mel Gibson pairing ended up with a commanding $22.53m in Australia. Smith's remarkable Two-Week cume was helped along by a healthy Second Weekend ranking as the 44th best in Australia, again, right next door to Women's $3.01m second frame. For Brad Pitt, Mr. and Mrs. Smith now ranks as his fourth most successful title in Australia behind ensemble pics Tory, Ocean's Eleven and Ocean's Twelve, having just passed the $11.66m of 1995's Se7en. Smith still ranks as Angelina Jolie's fourth most successful pic in Australia, although its poised to overtake the $15.90m of her current champ Tomb Raider within two weeks. It's already the fourth best film of 2005 after just two weeks, and it'll pass Robots and Hitch by next weekend. Compared to the U.S. pace, Mr. and Mrs. Smith is now tracking a reduced 23% ahead* in Australia, slightly out from last weekend's very capable 27% better* opening weekend. The 53% dip in Australia was larger than the 48% dip it saw in the U.S. in the face of Batman Begins, however the second local weekend was still 12% stronger* than the comparative second U.S. weekend. Back in 2001, What Women Want was tracking 89% ahead* locally after two weeks, although that finished 23% ahead* in the end. 
Some distance back in fourth position was Adam Sandler's comedy
The Longest Yard. Not immune from the series of 50%-plus falls that was seen
throughout the top ten, the Chris Rock co-starrer was off a quite steep 56% through weekend three, second in severity
behind only A Lot Like Love which crumbled 69% in its third. Collecting $0.98m,
The Longest Yard, raised it's total to $8.35m, somewhat of a disappointing level of growth from the $7.07m it had
after the Queen's Birthday last Monday.
The dip is a little unusual for Sandler flicks, with only Anger Management suffering a similar third weekend decline, of 60% back in May of 2003. All other Sandler flicks, even Mr Deeds held well in weekend three. Of course, it is a matter of the competition as well, The Longest Yard has endured some of the fiercest. But competition or not, it still means less people are getting out to see the film, this weekend it's now tracking 7% behind 50 First Dates after three weeks, a reversal of last weekend's 2% lead. It's now 6% behind The Waterboy's three week pace, a small improvement over the 13% weaker pace last weekend. It'll still have no problem of breaking through $10m, but reaching anything of note beyond The Waterboy's $11.22m final is doubtful. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Longest Yard is now tracking 29% down* in Australia, a small improvement over the 32% smaller* pace last weekend. The third weekend frame itself was 29% weaker* in Australia, a refection of the hefty local third weekend drop against a smaller 47% U.S. third weekend decline. Last weekend's frame was only 14% smaller*. The Longest Yard will end up becoming one of Sandler's biggest films in the U.S., already counting as his most successful since 1999's Big Daddy. 
Rounding out the top five was an equally wounded Star Wars: Revenge of The
Sith in its fifth lap. The successful Fox finale to their golden goose franchise netted an additional $0.96m
through the frame, although at a cost of 55% of its audience. The addition of Batman Begins was the biggest factor
in the decline, that and Revenge of The Sith has almost made as much as
Attack of The Clones did in its entire run with $32.67m to its name, so its potential audience is largely
satisfied now.
Compared to the other two Star Wars films, Revenge of The Sith is tracking 6% ahead of Clones after five weeks and 8% ahead of The Phantom Menace. From weekend five, Clones went on to add $2.99m to its final cache, while Menace added a cool $8.70m more. As a sequel to both, and of course that it's starting to show weak legs, Sith will resemble the trajectory of Clones more so than Menace. It'll perhaps be little stronger, so an extra $4m, at best, would net the film a final total of around $36.5m in Australia. Compared to the U.S. pace, Revenge of The Sith is now tracking 6% behind* in Australia, a tiny uptick from last weekend's 7% negative* stand. The fifth weekend frame itself comes in just below*, less than 1% difference, in Australia. While the film was scuppered by 55% in Australia, it saw a comparatively modest fall in the U.S. of just 32% despite the onset of Batman Begins. Weekend Coming 23rd - 26th June 2005 
Herbie: Fully Loaded opens this weekend with lofty expectations for its studio. The retro-conscious people's car is
back on screens with the now-proven Lindsay Lohan in the lead. Co-starring Michael Keaton, Matt Dillon and Breckin Meyer,
the fifth entry in The Love Bug franchise is directed by new-comer Angela Robinson. As the first Herbie film
in 25 years, Fully Loaded follows a daughter of a racing family who's prevented from driving by her protective
father. After Herbie chooses Maggie to be his driver, it's off to the NASCAR track for a showdown between the Peyton family
and the current - yet as always in these movies - undeserving champions of the field.
Having opened mid-week Wednesday in the U.S., as Batman Returns did last weekend, Herbie: Fully Loaded avoids direct opening day competition from Bewitched. BV are also hoping that solid family word from a mid-week launch will build into it's weekend and eventually show some strong summer legs. The four preceding Herbie films all did well for their time, with 1969's original collecting $US51.3m. Grosses eventually declined to $US17.0m for the 1980 series fourth and final Herbie Goes Bananas. With a well deserved rest, Herbie: Fully Loaded should be able to cover that in its opening weekend. Aside from the Herbie name, which'll see quite a few adults bringing their young families to theatres, the dual selling point is Lohan, who's solidified her position as teen movie gold in the last few years. BVI release the film at the right time to take advantage of the school holidays. Portions of Herbie: Fully Loaded's market are currently talking to Mr and Mrs Smith and Madagascar. Lindsey can sell the film to the teenage market without much effort, while pulling what will be its core audience - the family market - will be a taller effort in the face of Madagascar but not impossible. Last year Azkaban and Shrek competed for the same market and both were monsters, even more importantly Mean Girls struck success in amongst it all. Even with Madagascar being an exceptionally solid film, it won't push Herbie out of the family market, and it's not a threat at all against the Mean Girls faithful. Last year that flick ended up making $8.6m while Freaky Friday collected $6.18m against Lohan's name in 2003. Herbie: Fully Loaded as a solid four weeks ahead of it even if it doesn't explode this weekend. It should have enough personality to engage $1.7m this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |