Weekend 17th - 20th February 2005
The Aviator successfully maintained altitude through its second weekend, off only 24%. Although last weekend's
launch was lower than may have been expected from the well-represented Oscar contender, it's second weekend take of $1.39m
was heartening. The small decline came despite three new openers performing with medium to good results, and a rather
respectable second weekend showing from Hide and Seek, which provided some good competition last weekend. The
Leonardo DiCaprio and Cate Blanchett starring biopic of the life of Howard Hughes has wound up $3.97m in two weeks.
The Aviator's two week total outpaces the $3.75m that supporting Actor and Actress nominee Closer had collected over two weeks, and should go on to see some better holding power than the Roberts starring flick has displayed through weeks three and four. For DiCaprio, The Aviator is tracking 4.1% behind where 2003's The Gangs of New York was after two weeks, up from the 10.5% weaker opening weekend. While Gangs was no slouch after opening weekend, its holds were only moderate, with a high 30's decline average. The Aviator, touting it’s numerous nominations and hopeful of a swag of awards, will be out to not only replicate this weekend's slim decline in the weeks ahead, but do even better. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Aviator is tracking 26% ahead* in Australia after two weeks, out considerably from the 82% better* opening. In the U.S., The Aviator enjoyed a second weekend which fell over Christmas, and benefited from some powerful mid-week play through the festive period. While the second weekend in Australia was actually stronger* at 23%, the mid-week portion was 26% weaker. The Aviator never really broke out of the gates in the U.S., instead, it has enjoyed a strong level of consistency as various awards shows add longevity. 
Hide and Seek, the Robert DeNiro and Dakota Fanning starring flick about a girl with a nasty imaginary friend did
very well for the horror flick over the weekend, off 39%. Collecting just over $1m, the second weekend take has upped
the film's total to $3.13 million, and put it on track to pass the $4.81m of Fox's own Elektra.
While the fall is one of the higher declines in the top 20 over the weekend, it's an above average hold for in film of this genre. A host of films in this category from last year averaged 50 - 55% falls, such as Gothika dipped 52%, Underworld was off 51%. A stand-out was The Grudge's similar second weekend dip of 40%. If Hide and Seek continues to match the Gellar starrer's path, it will end up with just under $5m. Compared to the U.S. pace, Hide and Seek is now tracking just 12% behind* in Australia, well up on the 25% smaller* opening from last weekend. Weekend two for Hide and Seek came in a rosy 13% better*, thanks to a weekend dip that shamed 59% second weekend fall of the film in the U.S. It's been a fine earner for Fox in the U.S., but the onset of Constantine this weekend could hurt the films chances of going on to match the U.S. pace. 
Three new films rolled into the top five this weekend with mixed results. In third position was Bride and Prejudice,
the strongest both in real dollars and in terms of out-stripping expectations. The Gurinder Chadha-directed film - a loose
adaptation of the novel Pride and Prejudice - opened with a powerful $0.99m. Not a huge amount, but Roadshow seem to have
done a good job at targeting the release where the reception was strongest, as its slim count of 99 screens averaged a
top-20 best $10,042. Combined with a small token of previews, the total for Bride and Prejudice stands at $1.05m.
As a follow-up for Chadha and his Bend it Like Beckham success, Bride and Prejudice's opening is very similar to the $1.07m it launched with in 2002. The girl-loves-soccer tale then opened on 62 screens for a $17,396 average, defying expectations and becoming a monster hit with 13 weeks in the top 10 and $12.80m haul. Will Bride and Prejudice do something similar? History says no. While the opening is very strong in Australia, it mimics a healthy opening that it garnered in its native U.K. The opening was following by rather average holding in the 45% range. Compared to the U.S. opening for Bride and Prejudice, which was honestly nothing more than a token release, it started 2531% better* in Australia. Compared to the U.K. opening, it comes in 30% weaker^. Of course, the U.K. was always going to be its best market, but given that it fell heavily there, there's a good chance of Bride and Prejudice not only improving on that margin, but overtaking it. 
Opening on probably what were expectations was the Adam Sandler starring Spanglish. The film which co-stars Tea
Leoni and Paz Vega and deals with a family's trials at communicating with their new Spanish-speaking maid, opened with
$0.95m. Opening on 205 screens, the count which more than doubled Prejudice's could only muster a drab $4,641
average. Again with some small previews, Spanglish's total is $1.00m.
Adam Sandler usually commands much more at the box office, both in Australia, and what he has done in the U.S. with this film. No doubts that there's been some poor word drift into the market at the obvious underperformance of the film in the U.S., with Spanglish's opening standing as the softest for a high-profile Sandler release since the $0.82m opening of his 2000 embarrassment Little Nicky. But for both of these financial disappointments, the actor has had three commendable hits - a pretty good ratio for any actor. Nicky ended up with $3.42m in Australia, so with it’s slightly better start, Spanglish will be hoping for a $3.7m or so final. Compared to the U.S. pace, Spanglish's opening frame comes in 8% better* in Australia. Adding in previews, the film stands 14% ahead* at the close of the first weekend. So what happened to the drift of bad word of mouth effecting the opening in Australia? Typically, while Sandler releases have always been solid in Australia, the openings of his high-profile films have consistently been weaker* in Australia - between 25 and 35% weaker* - than in the U.S., with The Wedding Singer the one exception. Spanglish was expected to do much better in the U.S. than it did, so we can't assume that the Australian launch is a success in comparison to it. Compared to Chris' caretaker report from last weekend, Spanglish's debut was a bit weaker than his $1.3m prediction. 
The third new release of the weekend to penetrate the top five was the Chinese-action flick House of Flying Daggers.
Directed by Hero helmer Yimou Zhang, Daggers follows a young female warrior who becomes the centre of a
government plot to fake her arrest and escape from jail, in the hopes that she will lead them to the location of the leader
of The House of Flying Daggers. Opening with $0.75m, the launch of Daggers was quite bland considering it failed
to surpass the other two openers. Launching on 108 screens, Daggers averaged a fine $7,016, and as with the other
two films, previews added to its weekend for a total so far of $0.95 million.
The launch for Daggers was far below the $2.25 million launch of last November's Hero, which surprised with its opening strength, but faded quickly to finish with $5.37 million. The opening for Daggers was very similar to late January's Ray, which has averaged some good holds. Daggers is film that's generated good holds in U.S. and U.K. markets, mainly because the small audience the film had to begin with meant room for a larger audience to be convinced over subsequent weeks. In Australia, the launch isn't the small art house and genre-only fans it was in the U.S. Declines will probably follow, as Daggers hasn't shown break-out finals in any of the Anglo-sphere markets. Compared to the U.S. pace, House of Flying Daggers' opening weekend comes in a handy 336% better* in Australia. The film had a limited start in the U.S., so that comparison* is against the film's first weekend over 1,000 screens; The seventh weekend. With the six prior U.S. weekend's counted as previews, at the close of each weekend, Daggers stands 37% ahead* in Australia. Daggers showed good holding power in the U.S. from the small audience it had, but it never broke out. Whether or not it was hurt by Hero's release several months before, or the film wasn't billed as heavily is debatable. The top 20 films collected $8.21 million over the weekend, down just 0.2% from last weekend and down 12.4% on this weekend last year when Mona Lisa Smile opened on top with a surprising $2.04 million, ahead of another surprise; a $1.15 million second weekend from Stuck On You, down only 28%. The weekend was down 19.8% on this weekend from two years ago when Just Married opened on top with a great $2.38 million, pushing Gangs of New York down to third in its second lap with $1.33 million, while Chicago rose 17% to remain in second place with $1.46 million. Weekend Coming 24th - 27th February 2005 
We should finally see a 2005 launch over $2 million in Australia this weekend, as Constantine steps out to remind
us that from time to time, there are films that can inspire some opening-weekend interest in the general public. Starring
Keanu Reeves and Rachel Weisz, Constantine sees Reeves fill the shoes of supernatural detective John Constantine,
the leading character of DC Hellblazer comic. Helmed by long-time music-video director Francis Lawrence, the re-named
big-screen adaptation tells the story of the detective, who in between exorcisms, teams up with a police officer in
modern-day Los Angeles to find out what happened to her twin sister.
Constantine opened in the U.S. just last weekend with an expectedly powerful $US29.7 million over the three-day weekend, and $US33.6 million over the extended President's Day weekend. Although it was a powerful launch, it was in second place to a very sturdy second weekend from the Will Smith-starring Hitch. The launch for Constantine stands at the fifth best for a DC comic property translated to the big screen, behind all four of the Batman films. While it fails to reach the heights of such recent comic disappointments as Daredevil's $US40.3m and Blade II's $US32.5m, it does out strip the $US23.2m of last year's Hellboy and the spin-off no-shows Catwoman and Elektra. Recent comic flicks have fallen with severity, and Constantine looks to continue that. In Australia, comic book movies are much like the horror genre, they do ok, but open and finish well behind the pace* of what they collect in the U.S. Elektra has been a recent exception to that, with the Australian total up* by 100% on the soft U.S. total. A busy January in Australia is probably the best explanation to that. What of Reeve's star power? The two Matrix sequels did great guns in Australia, with Reloaded and Revelation far out-stripping the U.S. takes. Keanu's probably the best actor out there at the moment to headline a film like Constantine, and the Australian public will probably respond in kind to it. Constantine looks to draw a similar amount of attention that powered The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen and Daredevil to $3.09m and $3.24m openings, and bow with $3.1 million of its own this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |