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Weekend 18th - 21st July
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For the third weekend in a row the comedy sci-fi sequel Men In Black II was again tops at the Australian box office.
While prestigiously trumping the competition again, despite the film taking a back seat in the U.S. in its third try, it
did have a close call thanks to a spirited opening by the English import Ali G In Da House.
The pedestrian Tommy Lee Jones and Will Smith effects fuelled trip collect $1.6 million on a decreased 320 screens. This is
unusual because films that spend three weeks on top tend to see a third weekend screen count equal to or higher than it's
opening weekend count. The shedding of 45 screens directly shows the lack of confidence exhibitors have in the long term
durability of the picture, albeit justified. Men In Black II dipped 44% in it's third weekend, a figure not at all
out of order. The film is still playing much like last years comparable sequel, The Mummy Returns, both were far
inferior products to the original and had little originality to call their own, made just to cash in on the success of the
first. The Stephen Sommers effects-fest collected $1.7 million in it's third weekend, down 47% for a $12.6 million cume.
Men In Black II now has $14.7 million to it's name, the discrepancy accountable to Men In Black II's first
day Wednesday of $1 million.
Weekend breakdowns aren't available for the original Men In Black. Compared to the U.S., where the film dipped by
39%, also in its third weekend, Men In Black II is continuing lagging behind the stateside performance. The third
weekend performance in Australia was 6.6% better*, weakening from a second weekend that was 20.9% stronger*. After 19
days in both territories the film is running 6.9% behind* the U.S. pace in Australia, edging a little closer after being
9.8% behind* last weekend. The U.S. has another month or so of holidays left, but Australia's winter holidays are now all
over, meaning that mid-week sales in Australia can no longer compete with those in the U.S.
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Marking a particularly muscular and surprising debut in second place was the English import Ali G In Da House.
Creating an invasion of sorts with the successful UK comedy Bend It Like Beckham, and now this, Australia has
become a surprisingly strong market for the two films which scored very strong numbers in the UK earlier in the year.
Opening with $1.57 million, the films which stars Sacha Baron Cohen as Ali G in which the confused guy gets caught up in
a plot to overthrow the Prime Minister, but instead becomes a role model for young people and ends up helping the
government become more popular than ever. Deploying on 158 screens, it's $9,960 average almost doubled Men In Black
II and was the second best in the top ten behind that other UK flick.
Compared to the UK opening of Ali G In Da House, the film opened 28.3% weaker^ than the UK performance. A weaker
opening was of course expected as the film is by definition a UK property, so it becomes harder to cross over to the
general public of another country of whom a lesser percentage of the population are familiar with base the TV show. But
judging by the opening weekend here, many people are. These people will probably be the bulk of the fan base, so you can
expect the film to see large declines in the weeks ahead. Compared to my opening weekend prediction, the film almost
doubled my un-respec'able $0.8 million forecast.
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The second of the three new openers this weekend was the local film Dirty Deeds. Starring Bryan Brown and Toni
Collette, the film follows a Sydney 'businessman' who shakes down the local poker machine venues for his living. Co-starring
Sam Neil as a corrupt cop and John Goodman as a Chicago mafia man out in Australia to hook up his family in the local
action, Dirty Deeds opened with a good $1.26 million over the weekend.
Opening in a medium-wide 183 venues, Dirty Deeds scored an ok $6,940 average for the third largest average in the top
ten. Dirty Deeds opened stronger that Brown's last starring role of any commercial significance, Two Hands,
which opened with a good $0.8 million, also in late July three years ago, although that was enough to give the film a
number one positioning. That went on to gross a nifty $5.4 million in Australia, a lot better than recent flick The
Hard Word. The Guy Pearce flick also opened with $0.8 million but could only muster a more subdued $2.7 million. Dirty
Deeds should pass that by the end of it's run and finish with a total closer to Two Hands' $5.4 million. The
David Caesar directed film opened almost identically to my $1.3 million forecast.
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Entering the top five for its first time via yet another stand out effort was the feel good comedy Bend It Like
Beckham. It's third weekend takings were it's largest yet, with it's 1% rise from last week enabling the film to leap
frog from sixth place to fourth place. The film has seen nothing but increases week after week since its release and
witnessed another gross of over $1 million, collecting $1.1 million and upping it's cume in the process to a sensational
$5 million. The word of mouth on this film has been nothing short of electrifying, and its performance has blown
stand-outs from films like UK native Gosford Park and local hit Lantana out of the water. The film added
just three screens in its second weekend, and added a paltry further two in it's third weekend for a very small count
of just 67 screens. The small count says wonders for its screen average though, boasting an in-release best of $16,668.
There's no doubting that Bend It Like Beckham deserves more screens, and if it were to be treated like a genuine
wide release, then a Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon-like performance of $11 million plus would not be a problem.
Looking from what the film has done so far though, its 65 screens would carry it over that mark anyhow. Bend It Like
Beckham has the stuff it takes to become a true sleeper smash, it's probably not even a third of the way to what it
could achieve in Australia. For the film's true commercial potential, it's distributor and exhibitors need to be quickler
on the uptake than they were for Lantana, when it took them until the films 11th week to realise that the film was
worth a 100 screen release.
Compared to Billy Elliot, which sank by 8% in it's third weekend for a take of $0.8 million, Bend It Like Beckham
is tracking a great 31.5% ahead of that film, and will only increase its lead in the weeks ahead. Bend It Like Beckham
was a hit in it's native UK, but comparing the performance of the film with it's UK run reveals just how well it's doing
in Australia. Bend It Like Beckham opened with an adjusted^ $1.3 million in the UK, but should have opened with
$5.8 million if it was to compare^ with what it pulled in Australia in it's first weekend! After three weeks, the film
had an adjusted^ $4.5 million in the UK, meaning Australia would be tracking 11% ahead^ of the UK pace after the same
period if the field were level. But basing it on the UK index^, Bend It Like Beckham should have had an equivalent
$10.5 million^ after 3 weeks instead of its $4.5 million^, which in real terms was $US9.4 million. Bend It Like Beckham
ended up with $US16.6 million in the UK, in real dollar terms a figure Australia could never match, but compared to our
population difference, it made about $7.6 million^ adjusted to an Australian perspective. Australia will smash past that
mark and could optimistically end up with $15 million locally, which would have meant $US31.5 million^ in the UK, almost
double what it took there.
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Scooby Doo took the largest dip of its career in its fifth weekend, falling to position five. Dropping 44% and
finally coming down to Earth after what has been a fairy-tale run for the family oriented film, Scooby Doo
has begun to experience the post holiday blues that most family films go through. It wasn't all bad news though, it's
fifth weekend take of $1 million was enough to seat in in position No.15 on the Highest
Fifth Weekends list. Scooby Doo now has a brilliant $17.2 million to it's name and occupies position No.67
on the All Time Highest Earners list. $20 million may be a stretch for the film at this point
if hard falls are in future for the film, but it has surprised up until this point, so you'd be reluctant to rule it out.
Compared to the U.S. performance, Scooby Doo continues to shine. The film fell 47% in the U.S. in its comparable
fifth weekend to fall behind the Australian fifth weekend that was an astonishing 170% stronger* in Australia, reflecting
the amazing holding power of the film in Australia when compared to the U.S. Talking in terms of cumulative grosses, after
five weeks the Australian total stands 18.6% ahead* of the U.S. total, up from being 8.6% ahead* last weekend. The film
should end up around 30% stronger* in Australia in the end based on final cumes of $20 million and $US155 million.
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Everyone knew the film was going to fall hard, but just how hard. Blade II is the film in question. It packed in it
by 60% in the U.S. in it's second weekend, but that was in the face of new high profile competition, something it didn't
have this weekend in Australia. 40% would be regular amount for an action/genre film who's core fans come out on opening
weekend, around 55% is a steep fall for a film that experienced an irregularly high debut. Blade II didn't experience
a huge bow, but still crumbled by a disappointing 61% in it's second frame to mark the single worst second week fall of any
wide release film this year, even worse than the 59% implosion of the disastrous Queen Of The Damned. Blade II
collected $0.98 million over the weekend for a still respectable $4.4 million in 11 days. The original Blade dipped
by 53% in it's second weekend for $0.84 million and $3.2 million in 11 days, meaning Blade II is tracking 37.2%
ahead of the original at the same point in time. It ended up with $5.4 million in Australia, meaning Blade II
should end up with $7.5 million here if it keeps that same ratio. A final of $6.5 seems more likely.
Snowdogs took the first real fall of its career, down from fourth place to seventh, dipping by 31% in its eighth
official weekend, or its fourth wide weekend. The Cuba Gooding Jr feature collected $0.93 million for the weekend and
has seen it's total zoom to a phenomenal $9.4 million. That?s already 16% ahead* of what the film made in its entire U.S.
run. Although the film will be completely gone from the charts in two weeks with the school holidays over, it should have
enough steam to crack $10 million and be prestige enough to surpass Scooby-Doo and rival Bend It Like Beckham
in the surprise smash stakes.
After its standard as expected bow last weekend, the Richard Gere and Dianne Lane starring adulterous flick Unfaithful
was off a standard 32% in its second weekend, down three spots to eighth. Collecting a standard second weekend take of $0.83
million and a standard $2.7 million in 11 days, the picture is still performing much like last year's horror flick The
Wedding Planner which had $2.4 million in 11 days. The J-Lo flick ended up with $4.4 million, suggesting Unfaithful
may deliver a final of around $5 million.
Not lacking in performance when compared to its name, Bad Company opened poorly in ninth position with $0.73
million. The ridiculous pairing of Anthony Hopkins and Chris Rock attracted a so-so average of $4,316, but that's because
it was given far more screens than the picture warranted. If you think that the film is deserved of two and a half times
the screen count of Bend It Like Beckham, then it should be reflected in it's takings. The poor showing is down*
33% on the U.S. opening, although the only people adding with any care about the film are the book keepers at Buena Vista
and Bruckheimer Productions trying to figure out who's going to be accountable. Mark the territory down as another strike
out even though it's debut was somewhat higher than my $0.4 million prediction.
After Bend It Like Beckham, the next strongest performer of the week was the Frankie Muniz picture Big Fat Liar.
Following a kid who travels to Hollywood in order to gain credit for an idea he had for a school essay that eventually
finds it's way to the big screen, the flick held string, off a miniscule 8% from it's good but not great opening last
weekend. Collecting $0.72 million, the Malcolm in the Middle starrer now has $2.0 million. Bad news, the holidays are over,
so the picture will sink faster from now on than it otherwise would have being released four weeks ago.
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The top 20 films collected a still great $13.1 million, despite being down 17.3% from last weekend. The weekend was up
18% on this weekend a year ago when Shrek spent the last of its four week run at number one with $2.1 million,
down 32% from the weekend before. The weekend was up 59.7% on this weekend two years ago when the Mel Gibson flick
The Patriot pushed the superhero group of X-Men into second place with $2.8 million and $1.7 million
respectively.
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Weekend Coming - Weekend 25th - 28th July
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Hoping to score some sugar this weekend is the introduction of the romantic comedy The Sweetest Thing. Starring
Cameron Diaz, Christina Applegate and Selma Blair and directed by Roger Kumble (Cruel Intentions) the film
follows Christina (Diaz, not Applegate) who tries to brush up on her dating techniques after she meets the guy of her
dreams at a bar. For plot purposes she failed to get his number and therefore spends the rest of the film trying to track
him down and get herself in order at the same time.
The Sony film was released in the U.S. in April with a fairly
disappointing $US9.4 million, going on to earn just $US24.4 million of it's $US43 million production budget. One of the few
misses for Sony this year in the States, The Sweetest Thing has the potential to do much better in Australia, at
least in terms of box office takings per person. The film has had it's trailers showing for a long while in theatres now,
at first a couple of months ago with the standard trailers that were shown in the U.S., and then in the last couple of
weeks with what looks to be Australia-specific trailers with more risqu? footage. The film's star power counted for little
in the U.S., and word of mouth was obviously no friend to the film as it experienced large declines week after week.
The Sweetest Thing hopes to buck that in Australia, but how high can it expect to go? Rated M, the Columbia
picture could open with a decent $1.2 million this weekend.
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Also opening is the lost cause Road Kill. Re-named after a dismal run in the U.S. from Joy Ride, the film
stars Steve Zahn, Paul Walker and Leelee Sobieski and is directed by John Dahl (Rounders). It started as a joke
in the offices at Fox, but the plot involves three friends on a road trip who decide to have a little fun playing a
practical with their CB. Soon their fun turns to horror when the victim of their prank turns out to be truck driving killer
with supernatural powers of tracking people down.
The film opened in the U.S. last October with a poor $US7.3 million and
finished just under it's $US23 million budget with $US22 million. Long delayed for release in Australia after it's poor
showing in the U.S., Fox Australia was willing to try anything in order to make the film at least partially practical for
an Australian release. Not having learnt from the disastrous re-naming and release shuffling of Evil Woman,
Road Kill opens with what looks to be like a last ditch effort in the advertising stakes. Seemingly having spent
most of it's budget on re-naming the picture, the four adds Fox has put out nationwide means only 17 people actually know
the film is opening this weekend. They may power the film to a huge $0.3 million opening this weekend.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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