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Weekend 19th - 22nd September 2002
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There was no need for a measuring contest to decide who's member was the brightest over the weekend as the third entry in the
swinging Mike Myers spy series, Austin Powers In Goldmember, was able to jive it's way into the top position. The
new film, which re-introduces many of the popular characters from the previous movies including, of course, Austin Powers,
Dr.Evil and his henchmen, Fat Bastard and Mini-Me opened on top of the charts with a thumping $5.57 million. This time
out Austin must battle with not only Dr.Evil, but his new partner in crime, Goldmember, who has kidnapped Britain’s greatest
spy, Austin's dad. Austin must travel back in time and hook up with old flame Foxy Cleopatra to help him battle the bi-axis
of evil. Also starring Beyonce Knowles, Michael Caine and Vern Troyer, Austin Powers In Goldmember grooved into a
huge 329 theatres, the fifth largest opening screen count of the year, to average a mojo-rific $16,937 per pad, the fourth
largest wide opening average of the year.
The opening of Austin Powers In Goldmember was almost right on par with the opening of the first sequel, Austin Powers:
The Spy Who Shagged Me, which opened in June of 1999 with $5.71 million. That was then the fifth largest opening of all
time. Although almost on par, the important thing to note is that is did come in under that performance, even if it was
by only 2.4%. With ticket prices having increased in that time, the percentage margin would be larger than that if you were
talking about the number of people that went to see the film. Still, the opening of Goldmember is a decent one,
counting as the 12th largest opening weekend of all time in Australia, interestingly enough,
one rung below Spy, which sits at No.11 now. The opening of Goldmember also counts as the third largest of
the year so far, behind only the uber openings of Attack Of The Clones and Spider-Man. Films that spawn
sequels because of huge opening success usually produce films that open big, but perform below the final take of the
original. Although that’s a loose rule The Mummy Returns was able to shake in Australia, and Goldmember itself
has done it in the U.S. Goldmember has a good shot at matching the final $22.3 million that Spy gathered in
1999, as it will be the ruling film these school holidays, unlike Spy which was in the shadow of the mega-blockbuster
The Phantom Menace. The start of Goldmember is well down on Spy considering the competition Spy
was facing back then, it also had great holding power. The picture will be fully painted in three weeks time as to whether
Goldmember can do the same or surpass Spy.
Compared to the U.S. performance of Goldmember, where the film opened to spectacular numbers and now nine weeks after
its release is still building on the lead it has already made over Spy, the opening doesn't look as bright. The film
opened with the sixth largest opening weekend of all time in the U.S., helped along by opening in the U.S. summer, whereas
less than half the nation was on holiday in Australia over the weekend just gone. With that said, Goldmember has
opened 23.6% behind* the pace that it opened with in the U.S., but if it remains on target with Spy in Australia,
and that could be the case if strong mid-week sales occur, which is likely given the films timing, that margin should
decrease. Although a lot of people were out to see what Mike Myers would come up with this time, the count was down a bit,
but not that far away from my prediction of $6.2 million.
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Last weekends pacesetter xXx was as expected bumped off from the top spot, but managed to fend of both Lilo and
Stitch and Stuart Little 2 who both threatened big rises and high chart positions with the onset of the school
holidays. Still, the film fell a large 50% from its good opening weekend for a take of $1.59 million. The fall isn't great
and it isn't terrible. For a film of this nature with such a large debut, any fall under 55% is acceptable if the film
is receiving average reviews, a better received film, both critically and generally would expect nothing under a 40% dip.
Aside from that, xXx has upped its 11 day total to $5.78 million. Compared to Diesel's The Fast and The Furious,
xXx has been the slower performer. After opening a slim 3.3% behind last weekend, xXx has eased off the
accelerator slightly to be 9.6% behind. xXx really doesn't have a chance to match Furious' final or even pass
$10 million, its already done a good job of reaching its target demo, so there won't be anymore solid holiday-inspired
rebounds of its depreciation rate. The Bourne Identity will be the film to hurt xXx the most as people will
now be seeing an action/thriller styled film that isn't instantly disposable.
In last weeks comparison to the performance of the film in the U.S., xXx bowed a quite large 28.3% behind* the U.S.
launch and has seen that margin widen this weekend. xXx was able to spend two weeks on top in the U.S. but did see
a fall that was almost exactly the same of that in Australia, off 50.3%. xXx is now tracking 31.7% behind* the U.S.
pace after two weeks on the back on a second weekend that was 28.0% weaker*. xXx will be around for a couple more
weeks and should end with a final total of around $9 million.
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Rising two places to third this weekend was the Disney animated flick Lilo and Stitch. As expected the film rose over
100% with the onset of the school holidays in Qld and Vic, up 134% to $1.34 million. The film about an alien fugitive named
Stitch who lands on Earth and befriends a local Hawaiian girl whilst on the run from a group of extra-terrestrial law
enforcers has been playing for the previous two weeks with national previews and had an official release in Tasmania two
weeks before the rest of the country. Lilo and Stitch has a total of $2 million so far and should see another rise
again next weekend. The third weekend of Lilo and Stitch has played out almost exactly like the fifth weekend of
Snow Dogs, which collected $1.3 million for the frame through its first real national effort and had taken a total
of $2.3 million at the close of the weekend. That film went on to make just under $10 million, but didn't see another
significant rise, collecting about the same amount for the next three weeks. Lilo and Stitch hasn't properly stretched
its legs yet and will rise again this coming weekend.
Lilo and Stitch being a cartoon really can't compare to the U.S. performance as distributors use a different strategy
when releasing them. Audience participation is also very different as films are released in a pattern where the bulk of
money that a film makes occurs over an intense three week period. The summer holidays in the U.S. take place over three
months, and that gives family films a chance to take it much easier than their fast-burn counterparts in Australia. The usual
pattern is to open a film wide the week before or preview it for a couple of weeks before a national surge in business.
Films like Stuart Little, Ice Age and Rugrats In Paris usually make their highest weekly take during
week two of the school holidays, for Lilo and Stitch that's this weekend coming up. With weeks three and four in
Australia more accurately reflecting an opening or second weekend in the U.S., a better comparison for the U.S. will come
once the school holidays have finished. At the moment counting previews, Lilo and Stitch is running 43% behind* the
U.S. pace. That may not be passed by the end of the Australian run, but it will certainly be narrowed.
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Up three places over the weekend was the other kid-pic in release Stuart Little 2. It looks to become clear that the
mouse sequel will be the second choice for families these school holidays as they opt for the Disney alternative. The film
which this time follows Stuart and Snowbell as they embark on a mission to save Stuart's new friend, a sparrow, from the
clutches of a falcon was up 76% on last weekend, although not up by the 100% or more as expected. The $0.96 million take this
weekend counts as the official opening weekend, Stuart Little 2 will climb more next weekend however and add to its
current cume of $1.9 million which includes previews and Tasmania's holiday run. Compared to the original, Stuart Little
2 really doesn't have a leg to stand on. Stuart Little opened without the aid of previews to a top spot $2.86
million and went on to spend four weeks on top. Stuart Little 2 is starting off 33% weaker counting previews and
66% weaker without them factored in. Whichever way you look at it, Stuart Little 2 will have to get a move on if it
wants to nudge 50% of what Stuart Little made.
Compared to the U.S. performance of Stuart Little 2, the film opened 36% behind* not counting previews, but 26.6%
ahead* with them counted in. The U.S. trot of Stuart Little 2 was so weak that by next weekend the two week cume
will be larger* than the U.S. two week take no matter which way you look at it.
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Down three places to fifth was last week's number two Insomnia. The Al Pacino and Robin Williams film about a
guilty detective who goes all Bic Runga while trying to catch the killer of a teenage girl was down 37% through its third
weekend. Collecting $0.58 million, Insomnia now has an ok $3.9 million to its name and will end up with close to
$5.5 million.
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- Crocodile Hunter: Collision Course dipped out of the top five after a one week stay, dropping to sixth position.
The Steve Irwin film about hassling animals was off a steep but understandable 48% in its second frame reflecting the
selective interest of the country in his shtick. Making off with $0.37 million, Crocodile Hunter has $1.3 million so
far. With such a large fall in a weekend that should have seen a boost if it was ever going to go anywhere, Crocodile
Hunter looks to disappear from the screens after the school holidays with a fairly poor amount, possibly less than $2.5
million considering it doesn't have promise of picking up.
- Ben will be watching the bow of The Bourne Identity closely this weekend to see if Matt can knock him off. Ok, maybe
he doesn't give a toss about the Australian market, but The Sum of All Fears was good enough to place seventh this
weekend with $0.29 million. Down 48% in its fourth weekend, the film has displayed only average holding power for a film
like this, and should see its current $5.4 million total, which isn't all bad, finish with $6 million. Although that is on
about 50%* of what the film made in the U.S.
- As forecast a few weeks ago, Adam had no holding power once Mike showed up with his friends as Mr Deeds tumbled
by 59% in its fifth weekend. Of course, it doesn't really matter all that much as the film has already made the bulk of
what it was going to make, a film like this could never last 5 weeks and run through the holidays even if there was no
competition. Mr Deeds has raised its total to a fair $8.1 million and should be able to squeeze out an $8.8 million
finish.
- Signs was another big casualty of the weekend as Mike continued to proclaim there is no room for holdover product
if you're more than three weeks old. Off 54%, the Mel Gibson starring flick made $0.19 million in its sixth weekend and
has seen its cume rise to a very good $11.6 million. In the U.S. the film continues to display super legs even after eight
weeks, putting to shame the poor holding power of the film in Australia.
- Bend It Like Beckham has been slowly receding in screens over the last couple of weeks and will be expelled from
the multiplexes entirely before the holidays finish. Still, the 12th weekend of the Brit comedy saw $0.14 million kicked
into its net for a cume of $11.14 million. Bend It Like Beckham's final total may end up close to that of Signs,
reflecting what could arguably be the weakness of the Shyamalan film or the strength of Beckham, I prefer the
latter.
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The top 20 films made $11.8 million over the weekend, up a great 39.2% over last weekend, the first weekend to generate
top 20 sales over $10 million for nine weeks. Thanks pretty much exclusively to Austin Powers In Goldmember and less
in part to the smaller then expected rises of the family films. The weekend was up 13.4% from this weekend a year ago
when Diesel created the first real wide acceptance of his leading man role as The Fast and The Furious opened on
top with a nitro-fuelled $3.3 million. The weekend was up a massive 126.9% on this weekend two years ago when the Olympics
continued to pummel movie business as the box office sunk to a new low, allowing Big Momma's House to rule for the
first time in its third weekend with $1 million, up 6%.
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Weekend Coming - Weekend 26th - 29th September 2002
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There are three new wide releases this weekend as the school holidays around the rest of the country come into effect.
Coupled with releases from last weekend which are set to rise again, The Bourne Identity will be the highest new
entry upping the top 20 films from the weekend just past. Starring Matt Damon and directed by Doug Liman (Go),
the film follows Jason Bourne, a man who through some accident is almost killed and is saved by a fisherman who nurses him
back to health. With no memory of who he is, he sets out to re-discover his life with the help of a number tattooed on his
thigh. Based on the Bourne series of novels by Robert Ludlum, the film has been a great success for Paramount in the U.S.
who are keen to adapt more of the series into feature films. The The Bourne Identity has also gone on to excel
fellow Good Will Hunting star and pal Ben Affleck's The Sum Of All Fears, although both have done very
similar and very good business.
Despite opening less than Fears, The Bourne Identity debuted in mid June with a mighty $US27.1 million, a
career best for a Damon headlining film, although his supporting roles in Ocean's Eleven and Saving Private
Ryan did fair better. The $US75 million film has gone on to have some of the best holding power of the year, possibly
second to only My Big Fat Greek Wedding and now has a smashing $US120 million to its name with possibly a couple
million more left to come. Rated M in Australia, the thriller is being distributed by UIP. The film will certainly be the
best of the new openers but will most likely place second to Goldmember and possibly a potent Stitch and
Stuart combo. The launch will be a good one though as the film has been well promoted in Australia with Damon coming
for a promotional tour a couple of weeks back creating a good deal of attention. Positive word of mouth has also been spread
from the films advanced screenings that took place during that promo tour. In a battle between his and Affleck's films,
Damon will probably not only tump him in the long run as has happened in the U.S., but should score an opening well above
that of Fears. It's a difficult weekend to pick the placement as the film could launch anywhere from second to
fourth, but it should be able to generate a good $2.5 million opening this weekend.
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Also opening is the big-screen, big-budget attempt at a return to fun B grade movies in Eight Legged Freaks. While
the film may have hit the mark "creatively", unfortunately audiences weren't into it as the movie performed disastrously
in the U.S., becoming one major disappointment for its studio Warner Bros. Starring David Arquette and Kari Wuhrer, the film
was directed by first time big-screen director Ellory Elkayem and follows the basic plot of spiders who terrorise a small
town after they mutate from the effects of toxic waste. Perhaps being rather limited by its very bizarre title, the name
Eight Legged Freaks is rather a turn off. Warner Bros. decided to change the name from the much more catchy
Arac Attack after concerns the films title could have been confused as 'Iraq Attack'. Maybe a safe move politically,
but a disastrous move financially as it could be to blame for cutting the take of the film in half.
The film opened in the U.S. in the extremely hot month of July, but it seemed the competition was a bit too much. Warner
Bros. really did have high hopes for the film, deploying what they though was one of their major summer weapons on a
mid-week Wednesday slot, hoping to build word of mouth going into the weekend. The strategy backfired however, with
negative word of mouth amounting to a disastrous $US6.4 million opening weekend. Although only produced for $US30 million,
Eight Legged Freaks only just trickled past half of that to a final run of just $US16.8 million. That was probably
only half of what Warners expected the opening weekend to be. A crazy advertising campaign was also blamed for the poor
U.S. showing. Originally it played on the audience fear of spiders, but then descended into wacky, Arquette-styled zaniness
which showed an audience exactly what they didn't want. Lessons may have been learned in Australia with the film retaining
a lot of the dark feel created in the trailer. Eight Legged Freaks can only do so much though with the intense
competition around at the moment and will have to settle for scraps on the most part. There should be plenty of them around
though over the length of the holiday period once first and second choices have been filled. Eight Legged Freaks
will be a blast for the few people who are looking forward to the film and those looking for nothing more than empty fun.
It seems audiences are becoming more, "refined" now days, and many will balk at the chance to partake in that said fun,
meaning the film may open with a just ok $1.2 million over the weekend.
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Lastly and leastly is the kid pic Clockstoppers. Starring the Swim Star himself Jesse Bradford and directed by the
Trek Man himself Jonathon Frakes (First Contact, Insurrection) the film follows a guy who is able to stop
time with the aid of his father's wristwatch. He and his friend decide to have some fun with their newfound power but soon
realise that they aren't they only people with the ability. The Paramount film opened in the U.S. way back in March with
a decent $US10.1 million and went in to earn a good $US36.9 million, outgunning its modest $US30 million budget. Like
Freaks, Clockstoppers is opening in the shadow of many other films, but still should find its own audience
when first and second family film choices are done with. The may open with around $0.4 million over the weekend and hold
well for the duration of the holidays.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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