Weekend 20th - 23rd January 2005
For five weeks now Meet The Fockers has been laughing all the way to the bank. The unstoppable comedy sequel became
one of only 15 films to have ever spent five weeks or more in the top position, one week shy of matching the last film to
do it, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, who's feat of six weeks Fockers will match this weekend if it can out-gun
Oscar contenders Natalie and Jamie this weekend. Collecting $1.76m for the weekend, Meet The Fockers' take has seen
its total rise to a competition-devastating $28.88m. The Fifth Weekend counts as the 11th
best of all time in Australia behind the $2.08m of The Phantom Menace and beating out the $1.75m of 1994's The
Lion King.
Still standing as the third best release of 2004 at the moment, Meet The Fockers is currently tracking just 3.6% behind the film it is hoping to dislodge, Harry Potter and The Prisoner of Azkaban. This is only slightly better than last weekend's 4.2% smaller pace, although Azkaban did have a 0% fall in its holiday fuelled fifth weekend. Harry lived out the rest of its run in the high 40's and low 50's, hefty declines of which we can't really see Fockers matching. In passing the $27.79m final of 2002's Greek Wedding this weekend, Meet The Fockers become the highest grossing outright live-action comedy to date. For the those into semantics, next weekend it will pass Forrest Gump and seal the deal for those who would like consider the Hanks flick a comedy/drama. Compared to the U.S. pace, Meet The Fockers is now tracking a middle-finger raising 17% ahead* in Australia. This is up again from last weekend's 12% better* tally and the 6% better* total from two weeks ago. The fifth weekend frame comes in at 82% hotter* than the U.S. fifth weekend frame where it was off 50% for its first 'average' performance in its incredible run. On the all time scale stateside, Meet The Fockers stands in position 34, while in Australia it's at position 24. 
Two new films entered the top five this weekend, with Alexander appearing to surprise a few people with the strength
of its launch. It should be little surprise though, given that the film just clocked $US100m in sales outside of the U.S.
Not that it did anything spectacular, but Alexander's first weekend take of $1.66m should be good enough to
prevent even cynical media types from calling it a complete flop in what are essentially vain attempts to make a name by
trashing whatever is considered by them to be cool to trash at that particular point in time. (You know who you are, don't
write to me again). It should also convince Warner Bros. not slash their wrists and/or go on a two week bender.
Opening on a quite modest 187 screens, Alexander averaged a quite reasonable $8,919 on each of them, the best in the top 20. The opening figure bears a resemblance to last weekend's rather sturdy bow from U.S. co-dud Elektra which tricked cinema goers into paying $1.71m for the pleasure of its screen time. Alexander will be hoping for a better second weekend result than the Jennifer Garner flick managed, off 51%. Alexander will be hoping for Ladder 49 type numbers, launching almost dollar for dollar to Alexander, the Travolta flick was off only 36% in its second weekend and now has $4.59m in three weeks. Compared to the U.S. pace, Alexander's debut comes in 22% better* in Australia, when comparing the actual weekend frames. However, given than the picture launched on a Wednesday in the U.S., at the close of the first weekend, Alexander is tracking 24% behind* in Australia. This will certainly change next weekend given that Alexander will be unlikely to crumble the 65% it did in its second weekend in the U.S. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Alexander's launch scored 93% accuracy when compared to my $1.55m prediction. 
The Incredibles jumped back into record territory by registering a placement as the 24th best
Fifth Weekend of all time in Australia, with its $1.21m fifth frame landing in between the
carbon copied performances of Attack of The Clones and The Matrix Reloaded. Finally ceding a screen or
two from its massive 417 original spools, its count of 364 was still easily the highest in release and has helped the
animated smash raise $24.34m since its Boxing Day release.
Now in position 33 on the All Time list in Australia, The Incredibles passed the $24.26m of Spider-Man 2 over the weekend to become the fourth largest release of 2004. This puts The Incredibles just shy of the $25.62m final total of 2001's Monsters, Inc.. After five weeks The Incredibles just 2.9% ahead. Monsters, Inc. added a further $2m to its total name from this point of its release, and given that school holidays are now over, a $27m final would be a generous final estimate for The Incredibles and put it in Lion King territory. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Incredibles is now tracking 8% ahead* in Australia, up from last weekend's 3% better* cume. The fifth weekend frame was a decent 34% better* in Australia, largely due to a rather steep fifth weekend post-Thanksgiving drop in the U.S. The Incredibles had a second wind in the U.S. due to what was a Christmas/New Years boost through the latter weeks. There will be no such service in Australia, so the current lead The Incredibles has locally will be certain to decline. If The Incredibles does conclude at $27 million here, the margin will probably reduce* to around 4%. 
There was no stopping the galloping zebra in its third weekend, Racing Stripes, yet another flick that has done next
to backwards business in the U.S. continued to scoop the cream off of the January holiday period. Netting $1.16m through
the frame, the all-star voice cast was off a head-turning 7% through the weekend, easily the best hold in release other
than a sixth weekend rise for The Motorcycle Diaries which jumped from 27 screens to 43 and has become a hit for
Dendy. But for Racing Stripes, its current three week cume allows the film to boast a 2005 besting $5.98m, passing
Finding Neverland's $5.80 million.
This means that Racing Stripes has already passed the final $5.96m final total of last year's kids horror The Haunted Mansion. It's now tracking 16.0% behind where The Cat In The Hat was after three weeks. Racing Stripes will match the Mike Myers film's large fourth and hefty fifth weekend drops, so if Racing Stripes finalizes 16% behind, it will end up with $8.3 million, about the same as Elf from 2003. Compared to the U.S. pace, as of last weekend, Racing Stripes was tracking 39% ahead after two weeks in Australia, up substantially from the 5% better* debut. The film was off by a quite rough 51% in its second weekend in the U.S., reversing a trend that January-released-live-action-animal-themed-family-films like Snow Dogs and Kangaroo Jack had set in previous years. 
Just a two of his films are fading from the charts, Jude Law is back again in the form of Alfie. The remake of the
1966 Michael Caine film, this version features Law as a guy who.. er.. sleeps around a lot and, um, yeah. The Charles
Shyer directed flick opened with $0.88m over the weekend, which was a decent amount for a film that was largely ignored
in the U.S. Opening on 144 screens, Alfie averaged an ok $6,146.
Although Law has had three films in quick succession, has Closer this weekend and Sky Captain the week after, they've been a mixed bag of success. Huckabees had a rather dull performance, while Snicket's did well thanks to Christmas and New Years, although Law's narrator could have been played by any given actor. Alfie's debut is average at best, probably a true reflection of a single star's drawing power, with his best shot at success from of any of these five films will be with Closer this weekend. The launch for Alfie is similar to 2001's Enemy At The Gates, with opened with $0.76m and finished with a bland $2.50m. Compared to the U.S. pace, Alfie's debut comes in 42% better* in Australia. A batch of 70% declines in the U.S. highlights what was a dismal run. With Closer launching this weekend, it's direct competition for Alfie that will prove far more appealing to the target audience. The top 20 films collected $11.95m over the weekend, which is down 27.2% from this weekend last year when Along Came Polly opened with a great $2.55m ahead of spirited $1.88m opening from horror entry Underworld. The weekend was down 28.4% on this weekend from two years ago when 8 Mile remained in pole position with $2.84m in its second weekend ahead of Chicago's $1.85m first weekend. Weekend Coming 27th - 30th January 2005 
Jude Law anchors his fourth film in seven weeks, although has a little help from Julia Roberts, Clive Owen and Natalie
Portman in the romantic drama Closer. Directed by Mike Nichols (Primary Colors, The Birdcage),
Closer follows the story of two couples and their relationships that are quickly thrown into turmoil when it turns
in four relationships. More of a story of disregard and abandonment than a partner swapping party, Closer is based
on the play by Patrick Marber.
Released in the U.S. in early December, the $US27m film opened with a rather soft $US7.7m. Good reviews and a healthy running at the Golden Globes have so far failed to contribute in any significant way to Closer's box office, with 50% declines more common than its sub-30% declines. With $US33m in 8 weeks, Closer's weekend takes are now soft enough to suggest it wont be passing $US40m even if it hangs around in the charts for another 10 weeks. For Roberts, Closer barely registers on her career best of list, with 18 films excelling this one. For Law, Closer looks to end pretty close to the $US37m of last September's Sky Captain, wile for Portman, her GG winning role has passed the $US27m of her previous film, Garden State. Clive Owen deserves a mention for his GG win, but a U.S. audience knows no difference between him and paper bag. Same goes in Australia, King Arthur was a solid hit but it was by no means a star-maker. Owen is creating space for himself by appearing in Closer, but it's names like Roberts, Law and Portman that'll convince people to make their way to the theatre. As an ensemble cast, Closer is formidable, but that meant jack-all in the States. Numerous U.S. duds have proven solid over the last few weeks in Australia, but was that just due to the January holidays? Will Closer excel in the Australian market now that audiences know that it's an award winner? Closer has done very well in the U.K., actually rising in its second weekend due to awards time encouraging a spike in interest. Finding Neverland could be a good example of where Closer is headed. A poor performer in the U.S., it's an Oscar candidate that has really caught on in Australia, if Closer can channel that kind of energy than Meet The Fockers may finally have met its match for top honours. A 33% decline would see Fockers with $1.18m this weekend, can Closer beat that? Overall business will be down this weekend, but in a tight race Closer could earn $1.2 million this weekend. 
Also opening is Oscar candidate Ray. The Jamie Foxx starring film was directed by Taylor Hackford (Proof of
Life, The Devil's Advocate) and follows the life story of Ray Charles. Foxx has been critically acclaimed for
his portrayal of Charles in this biography and is the front-runner for this year's Best Actor Oscar. Audiences won't be
blind to that fact and Ray could become a stand-out at the box office due to it.
Ray opened in the U.S. in October with a great $US20.0m. The modestly budgeted $US40m has enjoyed a great run amassing $US73.1m so far. Dollars are still trickling in, and will continue to do so with another boost likely after the Oscar ceremony. It's Foxx's first starring role of significance, with the mainstream audience conveniently introduced to him in couple of months before Ray in Collateral. Films given Oscar coverage always tend to perform well in Australia, at least better than they would if released in the latter half of the year. There's an obvious draw because of that, but given that Ray chronicles the story of Ray Charles, will it suffer from Denzel Washington syndrome? Critically acclaimed or not, films featuring black film stars always under perform in Australia - unless its Eddie Murphy, but they're hardly acclaimed. This weekend we'll have five major-category Oscar contenders in release, so there's plenty of choice for us suggestive tools to impulsively support whoever the Academy tells us to. Ray may generate about $0.9 million this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |