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Weekend 20th - 23rd March 2003
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Breathing some new life into the box office over the weekend was the debut of Daredevil. Although not as stunning as
other recent comic book openers, the launch of $3.23 million was enough to push the winner of the previous two weeks,
Maid of Manhattan into second place. Starring Ben Affleck and featuring Jennifer Garner and Colin Farrell, the
film follows a young Matt Murdoch who lost his sight thanks to a chemical spill. Gaining a greatly improved sense of sound
as a result, a pro-bono lawyer uses his abilities to deliver his own brand of justice to those that the regular court
system fails. Daredevil opened on a wide 304 screens for a good average of $10,651 per tank to currently stand as
the fourth best opener of the year behind 8 Mile, Two Weeks Notice and Catch Me If You Can.
The opening for Daredevil was up on the $2.1 million launch of last year's Affleck flick The Sum of All Fears
which went on to collect $5.8 million, and more similar to the $3.5 million launch of 1998's Armageddon in which he
supported Bruce Willis. That went on to enjoy a $14.3 million final, something that may be out of Daredevil's
reach. The opening is very similar to last years Vin Diesel action film xXx which opened with $3.19 million on its
wat to a $10.8 million final, and comes in a couple of notches lower than the $3.6 million registered for the opening of
2000's comic book tent pole X-Men. Recently comic book films like X-Men and Spider-Man haven't shown
the best holding power, falling by an average of at least 50% each weekend, so look for Daredevil to follow that
same pattern. IF so, the film would end up with very close to $10 million.
Compared to the U.S. performance, Daredevil's opening weekend was 19.6% lower* in Australia than the regular three
day opening weekend from February in the U.S. Compared to the holiday weekend in the U.S., the opening comes in 28%
behind*. Affleck's last opener, The Sum of All Fears opened 32.3% behind* the U.S. pace in Australia, while
X-Men opened a slightly more distant 33.7% behind* the U.S. pace in Australia. Compared to my opening weekend
prediction, Daredevil came in a fair measure under my $4 million forecast.
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Last weekends number one film slipped to second place over the weekend after having spent two weekend there. Maid In
Manhattan dipped by 36% in its third weekend of wide release, collecting $0.97 million and upping its cume to an ok
$6.8 million. The Ralph Fiennes and Jennifer Lopez starring film about a maid who is courted by an eligible bachelor with
political ambitions after he thinks she is a guest of a fancy hotel has now become J-Lo's highest grossing film in
Australia, passing the $4.43 million of 2001's romantic comedy The Wedding Planner.
Compared to Just Married, Maid In Manhattan is now running 11% ahead of where the Ashton Kutcher and Brittany
Murphy pic was after three weeks of release. This is up from the 5.7% deficit after the comparable weekend of previews
and the first weekend of release, and up again from the 7.6% lead it had after last weekend because of Just Married
falling a larger 48% through its third weekend. Maid In Manhattan should be able to eclipse what should be an
$8 million final tally for that flick, on its way to around $9 million.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Maid In Manhattan is running 20.1% ahead* in Australia after three weeks of release.
That is down considerably from the 53.9% lead* it had last weekend, however, the percentage figure is starting to level out
after Australia's advantage from the first couple of weeks when previews gave the figures an impressive, albeit unfair
edge.
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In its ninth weekend of release the Oscar winner Chicago was off only 14%, as expectations that it would do well at
the awards, and of course its brilliant word of mouth, kept audiences coming. Bagging six awards including Best Supporting
Actress for Catherine Zeta Jones and Best Film, its Editing, Sound, Art Direction and Costume Design nods merely add to the
numbers its distributors can trumpet in its revised Oscar winning adverts. Collecting $0.58 million through the weekend,
Chicago has raised its cume to a very good $15.5 million, and is sure to see a bump in sales this coming weekend
as a result of its Oscar victories.
Chicago is now tracking 4% ahead of where American Beauty was at the same point in time back in 2000, as it
jumped 14% through its ninth weekend, heading into the Oscar ceremony. This is up slightly from the 3.6% lead it had last
weekend, thanks to a ninth weekend and mid week take that was larger than American Beauty's. Chicago is
still well on track to pass the $19 million final of Beauty, but due to the more prestigious sway of Oscars
the Kevin Spacey film managed to win, Chicago may have trouble replicating the 56% post Oscar weekend rise.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Chicago is now tracking 15.6% ahead* when comparing current cumes, nine weeks in
Australia and 13 weeks in the U.S. This is down from the 17.4% lead* it had last weekend, due to the smaller 13% 13th
weekend dip in the U.S. having a greater depreciation effect on Australia's lead.
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Another pic in the top ten currently benefiting from its Oscar attention is The Hours. Dipping a mere 20% through
its fifth weekend, the pic that allowed Nicole Kidman to finally snag her Best Actress Oscar collected $0.41 million
and raised its cume to a good $5.3 million. Despite its nine nominations, The Hours was able to win only the one
statue, although for publicity reasons in Australia, there couldn't have been a more commercially valuable award for the
film than Kidman's Best Actress nod. After exiting the top five in its third weekend, its re-entry is largely based on the
continuing decline of the current product, rather than any sizeable increases, although that may change this coming weekend
as a result of Kidman's success.
Compared to the U.S. performance, The Hours is tracking a good 36.3% ahead* of the U.S. pace in Australia, and that
is comparing the five week run here to the current cume collected over its entire current 13 week run in the U.S., the
first seven of which played on under 1000 screens.
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Final Destination 2 enjoyed another spot in the top five over the weekend through its third lap. For a horror sequel
to keep its decline last weekend to just 27% was excellent, although that levelled out this weekend dipping by 48%. So far
it has elevated its cume to a respectable $2.5 million thanks to an $0.35 million weekend, which is even up on the
original by 11.5% through the close of the third weekend, where it fell by a steeper 54%. Hanging around in the top 20
charts for another week or so will help the film pass the $2.8 million final of the first film.
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The top 20 films collected $8 million over the weekend, up 13.5% on last weekend, but down 20.8% on this weekend last year
when Ice Age thundered into the top position with a commanding $2.6 million opening weekend. That was ahead of the
third weekend of A Beautiful Mind which collected $1.7 million through the weekend before Russel Crowe was the
assumed favourite to take home his second Oscar for Best Actor. The weekend was down 12.6% on this weekend from two years
ago when Miss Congeniality spent it second weekend on top with a $3.47 million weekend, off just 20%, and Oscar
hopeful Traffic was off just 10% in its third frame with $1.4 million.
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Weekend Coming 27th - 30th March 2003
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Leading the new films out this weekend is local production Ned Kelly. As one of the most expensive local pictures
ever produced in the country, at least when considering its non-foreign bank-roll, Ned Kelly comes with high
expectations financially and creatively. The story of Ned Kelly is one of Australia's most famous legends its
creators hope that this version will finally be the one Australians rally behind a make a huge local success. Starring
Heath Ledger in the title role, the film also features Orlando Bloom, Naomi Watts and Geoffrey Rush, all of whom have
gained a large international profile in the last few years, and that is what the creators believe is the key the its
chances of international success. This is the third go at a Ned Kelly feature after the 1970's version that starred
rocker Mick Jagger as Ned, and the 1906 silent film which was one of the earliest ever motion pictures.
Directed by Gregor Jordan (Two Hands), the basic story of Ned Kelly revolves around Ned and his brothers who
later became known as the Kelly gang. After rustling some livestock, Ned attracts the attention of the local law. He soon
elevates his profile after holding up a bank or two, after which his mother is imprisoned as retribution. He and his
brothers then begin a life on the run hiding out in the bush, becoming known as bushrangers. Although locals view them as
heroes, the law puts a reward on their heads. Of the cast, its Heath Ledger who has the most responsibility to sell the
film, although the supporting cast is very strong. Geoffrey Rush has the highest profile of those, and that should
translate into drawing a large number of independent only film-goers who may otherwise not see it. Australian Naomi Watts
scored a hit with The Ring late last year and as a result her profile has grown to those in the know, arguably in
the U.S. more than in Australia. Orlando Bloom has yet to headline a major picture of his own, but has scored a solid
following for his work as Legolas in the Lord of The Rings flicks and Black Hawn Down.
Ledger's track record still isn't anything that would justify him anchoring a $US100 million film, but he is more than
worthy and appropriate for Ned Kelly. His sole headlining role to date was in 2001's moderately successful A
Knight's Tale, which opened with a good $2.23 million and finished with a healthy $8.92 million. Supporting roles in
Two Hands and The Patriot gained some attention, although 2002 saw one true test of his star power fail when
The Four Feathers bombed in the U.S., and as a result is still yet to secure an Australian release date. The film
shouldn't have a problem with knocking Daredevil from the top spot, but how big can the film go? Some are predicting
that this version of Ned Kelly will be a film that finally rallies an Australian public who haven't had a big local
production to come out in force for, for years. It most likely won't reach the lofty $47.7 million heights of 1986's must
see Crocodile Dundee, but it has a good chance of reaching the $27 million of Moulin Rouge, and some may say
the $36 million of 1996's Babe is a good measure. It's backers are hoping Ned Kelly can stir the deep feeling
of Australian patriotism that is always ready to explode under the right circumstances, and now is a very ripe time.
Ned Kelly will have a decent opening, but most likely not huge, with its real barometer of success being its holding
power from then on. Look for the amorall thief to clean up with $3.6 million this weekend.
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Also opening is the DMX and Jet Li action flick Cradle 2 The Grave. Directed by Andrzej Bartkowiak, who's previous
credits include the DMX action film Exit Wounds and the Jet Li pic Romeo Must Die, all of which are arguably
clones of the same sub standard action formula of cheap Matrix knock-offs. This time out a gangsters daughter has
been kidnapped by an international criminal as an exchange for some precious diamonds that he stole. The trouble is the
diamonds are a little more than just jewellery, which prompts the gang leader to team up with a Taiwanese intelligence
officer who is on the same case for other reasons.
Produced for a very low $US25 million, the film opened in March of this year in the U.S. to a very good $US16.5 million.
The film's holding power has been anything but however, crumbling in its second weekend by a very large 60%, which to be
fair was expected. That decline rate has been average over the last couple of the films four week run and has a current
cume of $US33.4 million, of which won't grow too much more. The opening was only slightly down on Jet Li's similar $US18
million opening for Romeo Must Die, which went on to collect $US55.9 million. For DMX, who also had a small role
in Romeo, his co-starring stint in Exit Wounds earned a him an $US18.5 million opening weekend and a good
$US51.8 million final.
In Australia, Jet Li's Romeo Must Die opened in May 2000 with a fairly good $1.2 million, with holding power was
only so-so, ending up with a final total of $3.4 million. His Kiss Of The Dragon launched with $1.3 million and
ended up with $3.38 million. Exit Wounds performed very similarly, opening with $1.13 million and going on to earn
$3.35 million in total. As in the U.S., Cradle 2 The Grave will most likely come in under the scope of each of these
films, considering Ned Kelly will be the choice of film goers this weekend. If it ends up with $3 million, it will
be a very good effort for the film, and a $1 million opening would get it well on its way to meeting that target.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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