|
Weekend 21st - 24th August 2003
|
Opening as expected in first place over the weekend was the Mark Whalberg starring heist flick The Italian Job. Also starring
Edward Norton, Charlize Theron and Donald Sutherland, the flick follows a group of thieves, who after being double-crossed by one of their
own and left for dead, re-team to take back what is through to be rightfully theirs. Directed by Gary Gray, the re-make of the 1969 film
of the same name opened with a very good $2.84 million through its first weekend. Counting in previews from last weekend, The Italian
Job's heist so far stands at a great $3.62 million. Opening on 259 screens, the film averaged $10,980 per theatre and stands as the
15th best opener for the year, and the second best for UIP's Paramount arm.
Compared to Whalberg's other films, The Italian Job's opening comes in 28.6% below his 2001 sci-fi epic Planet of The Apes
which bowed with $3.98 million, but opened 16.3% better than 2000's special effects drama The Perfect Storm. Each of those films
went on to clock over ten million, which is a good sign for The Italian Job. The Italian Job will probably perform a lot like
2002's The Bourne Identity which opened with a very similar $2.77 million on its way to $12.89 million via some very strong holding
power. The Italian Job faces some stiff competition from a slew of openers this weekend, although out of them all it will only be
Finding Nemo that will raise any serious competition, however even then, despite Nemo's ability to draw from every
demographic, as a counter program to each other, its arrival will only work in The Italian Job's favour.
Compared to the U.S. opening, The Italian Job's launch comes in a healthy 46.1% better* in Australia than it did in the U.S. This is
thanks in large part to competition in Australia being far less ferocious than it was in the U.S. in late May. Back then The Italian
Job was jostling for space between Finding Nemo's record launch and the second weekend of a very energetic Bruce
Almighty. Counting in the Australian previews from last weekend, The Italian Job currently stands 86.1% ahead* of where it was
in the U.S. at the close of the first official weekend of business. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, the launch for The Italian
Job was almost spot on with my $3 million prediction.
|
In its third weekend the third instalment of the American Pie franchise dipped to second place. American Wedding was off by
41% to $1.44 million, feeling the effects of The Italian Job's launch. Most other films in release however held up well over the
weekend due to only the one major introduction with most falls in the 30% range in the top ten. Off another 16 screens from last weekend,
American Wedding has seen its total climb to $10.1 million, crossing the ten million mark on Sunday and becoming the 15th film to
do so this year.
After three weeks of release, American Wedding is now tracking just 2.8% ahead of where the first film was after three weeks, down
from the 14.4% lead it had at the close of weekend two. This has resulted from American Wedding being unable to match the very small
7% dip the first film enjoyed through its third weekend in 1999. Compared to American Pie II, American Wedding is now
tracking a better 1.5% ahead, an slight improvement on the very tiny 0.1% lead it had last weekend. Continuing to track very similarly to
Pie II, American Wedding's third weekend decline was slightly better than Pie II's 47% third weekend dip. Given that,
American Wedding should have no trouble passing the $13.2 million final of Pie II and should finish half way between that and
American Pie's $14.2 million final.
Compared to the U.S. performance, American Wedding is now tracking 25.1% ahead* in Australia to where the film was after its third
lap in the U.S., where the film was off 46%. This accounts for the slight improvement over last weekend when American Wedding was
tacking 23% ahead* at the close of weekend two. As with its final Australian total, American Wedding should finish somewhere in
between the 39.2% better* and 9.3% weaker* final totals that the first two entries earned respectively in Australia when compared to the
final U.S. takes, around 30% better*.
|
Down With Love was down one position to third over the weekend, down a respectable 30%. Although unable to make up for its rather
poor launch, the 30% dip allowed the film to collect $0.59 million through the weekend, rasing its 11 day total to an ok $1.76 million.
Even if the film does retain reasonable holding power of the next two or three weeks, its final total will still struggle to look good
as it slowly climbs to a total of around $3 million.
Down With Love has already lost its chance of competing with The Quiet American, which opened with similar figures on its
way to $4.96 million, as that flick was off by just 9% in its second weekend. While also opening similarly, Analyze That was off
a very similar 31% in its second weekend and has racked up $2.3 million after 11 days thanks to the aid of the Australia Day public
holiday. Currently standing 24.4% behind the DeNiro flick, Down With Love should steady enough to recover and pass Analyze
That's $2.77 million final.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Down With Love is now tracking 21.3% ahead* of what was a poor performance in the U.S., almost right on
track, but down ever so slightly from its 21.4% lead last weekend.
|
Dipping one spot to fourth over the weekend, but managing to find the best holding power in the top ten was the sci-fi blockbuster
Terminator 3: Rise of The Machines. Arnie's third telling of the cybernetic soldier sent backwards through time was off only 24%,
the first weekend dip that could be considered good after four previous weekends of large declines, which were an expected effect of such
a large opening. Collecting $495K, Rise of The Machines has seen its total climb to $18.22 million, and now looks set to pass
Colombia Tri-Star’s other successful sequel, Full Throttle, in the next couple of weeks, although the $20 million mark may be out
of reach.
Rise of The Machines is now tracking 4.1% ahead of where Pearl Harbor was after six weeks, down from the 6.1% lead it has
last weekend. Although the Affleck starrer was off a higher 34% in its sixth, it collected 7.4% more through its sixth lap. Although if
Rise of The Machines is set to pass Full Throttle, sitting at $18.70 million, it should also eventually pass Pearl
Harbor's $18.77 million final.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Rise of The Machines is tracking 24.8% ahead* in Australia after six weeks, up again slightly from the
22.7% lead* it had last weekend thanks to a sixth weekend that was 205.2% better* in Australia.
|
The Bruce Willis war dud Tears Of The Sun scored a dip of 37% in its second weekend for a weekend take of $482K. The Monica Bellucci
co-starring telling of an American special forces operation our to rescue a group of foreign nationals from a rebel threat in Nigeria has
an 11 day sum of just $1.55 million.
Compared to Travolta's military thriller Basic, of which Tears Of The Sun opened very similarly to last weekend, it is
tracking 4.0% ahead, thanks to a slightly better hold than Basic's 41% second weekend dip and $445K take. Passing its $2 million
final should be do-able. Compared to the U.S. pace, Tears Of The Sun is tracking a hefty 49.4% behind* after two weeks, an
improvement would you believe over last weekend.
|
|
The top 20 films collected $7.40 million over the weekend, down a slight 0.6% from last weekend and down 8.0% from this weekend a year ago
when Sandler's Mr Deeds bought out the top spot with a $2.69 million launch ahead of Signs' second weekend take of $2.19
million, off 42%. The weekend was down 17.1% on this weekend from two years ago when Heath Ledger lead the way with his $2.23 million
bow from A Knight's Tale ahead of Bridget Jones's Diary's $1.16 million fifth weekend.
|
Weekend Coming 28th - 31st August 2003
|
The all conquering Finding Nemo is released in Australia this weekend. The animated super-blockbuster arrives strategically before
the school holidays in the hopes of replicating its U.S. success where it slaughtered Neo to become the biggest grossing film so far for
2003. Distributed by BVI in Australia, the latest Pixar film follows the adventures of Marlin who along with his pal Dory must search the
ocean to find his son Nemo who is taken from his home in the Great Barrier Reef and taken to an aquarium in Sydney. The super successful
line of Pixar computer animated films has been more successful in the U.S. to date than in Australia*, although they have performed well
here. Considered the mark of quality, it has been Pixar's competitor's that have fared better in Australia with both Ice Age and
Shrek doing better in Australia* when compared to what they have taken through great runs in the U.S. Now considering Finding
Nemo's unstoppable success in the U.S. this year, BVI Australia may find it again difficult to match the U.S. performance, with
Finding Nemo seemingly destined to follow the previous Pixar path.
Finding Nemo opened in the U.S. in June to the tune of a massive $US70.3 million, easily breaking Pixar's own record for an animated
film, set two years earlier with 2001's $US62.6 million opening of Monsters, Inc.. The film has gone on to collect $US330 million
in 13 weeks to on the back of amazingly good holding power to unseat Shrek's $US267.6 million and DreamWorks hold on the title of
the top computer generated film of all time. It has also taken the nine year record away from The Lion King as the highest grossing
animated film of all time, eclipsing the Disney films life time gross of $US328.5 million.
With Finding Nemo's launch in Australia, and given its feverishly good reception in the U.S. records are going to be broken one
way or another. Helping this along will be the films Australian setting and the launch coming a little under a month before the September
school holidays. That month wait until the holidays may seem like a while, but Finding Nemo will have the strength to reach them
while still going strong, and the arrival of the holidays will give it very noticeable and profitable second wind. One noticeable
difference between Finding Nemo's launch and that of other recent Pixar events, is that as with Shrek and Ice Age,
which as mentioned above did better* in Australia than the U.S., is its non-Christmas/New Years launch. Shrek and Ice Age
were able to use their respectively skewed, state by state two week mid-year holiday periods to reach impressive final and weekly grosses.
This will be something Finding Nemo will be using to its advantage in its hopes of racing up the all-time chart.
A huge final take is assured, and shelf life is guaranteed be hot given the location of its release in regards to the school holidays. But
how will it fare compared to the best of best in Australia? For BVI, they had their crown stolen in 2001 by UIP's Shrek, which
displayed some of the most awesome holding power this country has seen, ever, with possibly the exception of Babe, going on to
collect a mammoth $32.04 million. BVI's once all-proud The Lion King is still its jewel with a lifetime take of $27.08 million. For
Pixar, the $25.62 million of Monsters, Inc. was a successful counter to Fellowship through Christmas of 2001 and is BVI's
best computer animated film. Those releasing Finding Nemo have expectations for the film, and expectations are huge. In every market
Finding Nemo has been released in so far it has been a huge hit, and should challenge Reloaded internationally, and given
the advantages it has in Australia, Finding Nemo looks like sure money to become BVI's biggest animated film and would be hopeful
to pass the $29.18 million of The Sixth Sense, its current live action record. After that, time will tell if it can unseat
Shrek.
Currently, its BVI's Monsters, Inc. that has the largest opening weekend for an animated film in Australia, however it sits all the
way down in slot 57 on the all time list - a far cry from the six animated films that populate the top 60 opening weekends chart for the
U.S. With its $3.73 million opening, Monsters came at a time when almost everyone in the country was on holiday, so there were
plenty of families with spare time to catch it, reflected by its $1 million Boxing Day opening day. However, adults, to which Pixar films
have a great knack of catering for, while still remaining immensely entertaining for the kids, were more than distracted, rather almost
completely occupied by the arrival of Fellowship and its record breaking weekend. Finding Nemo doesn't have that same kind
of blistering competition-sapping rival this weekend, freeing up a huge potential opening weekend audience that wasn't there for
Monsters. A huge slice of Finding Nemo's audience will be waiting for late September, but there will be fans of the adult
and family varieties alike that will be out in force and deliver a new opening record for an animated film this weekend. Finding
Nemo may open with around $4.7 million this weekend.
|
* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
|