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Weekend 21st - 24th Mar
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Ice Age opened around the country with a mighty roar over the weekend as the Fox all
computer animated film become the third highest opening animated film of all time in Australia.
Ice Age opened with a cool $2.6 million on a wide 298 screens for a very strong
$8,737 average per igloo, especially impressive considering school holidays haven't yet arrived
around the whole country.
Ice Age follows the story of a mammoth, voiced by Ray Romano, a sloth (John Leguizamo)
and a sabre-tooth tiger (Denis Leary), who try to return a human baby to its tribe before the
ice age cuts off their path. The film is directed by Chris Wedge, who also provides the voice
of Scratch the little character who tries throughout the movie to store an acorn, and who could
very well be credited for handling the entire advertising campaign for Ice Age.
As mentioned, the opening for Ice Age stands as the third best animated bow of all time
in Australia, behind only last December's successful Monsters, Inc. at $3.7 million and
last winter's even more successful Shrek with $3.5 million. Those films made $25 and
$31 million respectively to become the No.3 and No.1 most successful animated films of all time,
with 1994's The Lion King seated in between at $27 million. This mirrors the U.S.
opening for Ice Age, which opened with $US46 million to also become the third largest
animated bow of all time. The opening in Australia, however, is some 43% behind* the strength
of the U.S. bow, again reflecting the general difference of animation performing behind the
strength it does in the U.S., Shrek being the obvious exception.
Like many animated films that go on to make a handsome total in Australia, Ice Age has
opened ahead of the school holidays, a move designed to build word of mouth before the
lucrative family dollar hits the market. Ice Age has a commanding spot leading into
the Easter break despite the intensity of family films released this week, with competition
headed by the 20th anniversary of E.T., Return To Neverland and Jimmy Neutron,
the Fox film should easily command the family market. Its appeal however crosses all
demographics and therefore should remain in the top spot this weekend.
Ice Age will certainly increase its take next weekend given the precedent that the Easter
weekend is usually the second most lucrative time of the year after the Boxing Day weekend, it
will also be a five day weekend counting Easter Monday. Its hard to say at this point, but
Ice Age has a great chance of reaching the $20 million mark in Australia. Its opening
total however was a little below my $3 million prediction, perhaps that will be a figure more
fitting this coming weekend.
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The Oscar favourite A Beautiful Mind performed very well at the Oscars, but missed out
on the coveted Best Actor statue for its star Russell Crowe. Potentially the most resonating
with an Australian audience due to the man himself, the lack of that award takes a little lustre
of the its other achievements, which in themselves are commendable. Taking out the awards for
Best Picture, Best Director for Ron Howard, Best Supporting Actress for Jennifer Connelly and
Best Adapted Screenplay, the four time award winner will certainly see a rise next weekend.
For now though, this weekend saw A Beautiful Mind dip by only 19%, no doubt helped by
the relentless media coverage of Rusty and his Best Actor chances. The tale of a schizophrenic
mathematician relinquished the top spot and made off with $1.7 million through its third weekend
in second place and has raised its total to a brilliant $11.3 million.
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Opening well in third place was the spoof comedy Not Another Teen Movie. The film which
pokes fun at all the recent, and not so recent teen movies opened with $1.5 million on 183
screens for a very nice $8,281 average. In the vein of Scary Movie and treading over
its spoof territory, Not Another Teen Movie opened very similarly to last years
Scary Movie 2, which also made $1.5 million in its opening weekend. Not Another Teen
Movie opened some 20% higher* than its respective launch in the U.S. and was also stronger
than my low $1 million prediction.
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The time travel comedy Kate and Leopold claimed fourth place, down two spots from second
with $0.9 million. The Hugh Jackman and Meg Ryan starring film now has $3.2 million in the
bank in 11 days, off 36% from its fine opening weekend. Co-Starring Breckin Meyer and Liev
Schreiber, Kate and Leopold is now running a small 6% ahead* of the pace it was at
the same point in the U.S.
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Falling two places to fifth place was the Altman directed film Gosford Park. Perhaps
going in its very impressive seven Oscar nominations, Gosford Park was off only 4% from
what was a surprisingly strong launch last weekend. The ensemble comedy's $0.72 million second
weekend has seen its total rise to a good $2.2 million and also claims the highest non-Imax
screen average in release of $11,112 per theatre. Given the large amount of nominations,
Gosford Park was probably the least impressive performer, winning only one statue with
a Best Original Screenplay nod. That should mean little, because the film has been praised by
critics and more importantly the public, meaning the film has a good chance of standing on its
own from now on without Oscar help.
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Elsewhere in the charts, Bandits opened in sixth place with a disappointing $0.68
million. The Bruce Willis and Cate Blanchett starring comedy about a pair of bank robbers who
unwillingly pick up a new member launched in a medium 163 screens but managed a so-so average
of $4,185 per petty cash tin. The opening was only half the strength of my predicted $1.2
million launch. Also down two spots was Black Hawk Down in seventh. Off 39% from last
weekend the Ridley Scott directed film made $0.38 million in its fifth week of release and has
a good $9.6 million so far. Black Hawk Down is now running exactly on par* with the
performance it achieved after five wide weeks of release in the U.S., falling from a lead* of
12% after its second week. Nominated for four Academy awards, the war epic walked away with the
tech awards of Best Sound and Best Film Editing, although they won't help much in upping its
final total that looks like rounding out with a decent $10.5 million. The comedy Super
Troopers claimed eighth position, down four places and 53% in its second weekend for a mild
cume of $1.4 million. The Phillip Noyce directed film Rabbit Proof Fence dipped two
places to ninth spot with $0.28 million. Off a good 25% in its fifth weekend, Rabbit Proof
Fence has a nice $4.6 million cume and should end with just over $5 million. Holding steady
in tenth place was The Royal Tenenbaums which doubled its screen count up to 30 and as a
result saw its take rise by 78% to $0.23 million. The tale about a family of failed grown-up
child prodigies who reunite because of an illness in the family has a mild $0.42 million to
date.
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The top 20 films together made $10.1 million, up a large 32.6% from last weekend and was the
first time the total reached $10 million in eight weeks. The weekend was up 9.7% on this weekend
a year ago when the Sandra Bullock starring Miss Congeniality opened brilliantly at No.1
with a hot $4.3 million. The weekend was up 29% on this weekend two years ago when the horror
sequel Scream 3 launched on top with a good but not great $2.5 million. Oscar winner
American Beauty was up 13% in its ninth week of release.
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Weekend Coming - Weekend 28th - 31st Mar
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Leading the new films out this weekend is the Eddie Murphy and Robert DeNiro starring
Showtime. Directed by Tom Dey (Shanghai Noon), Showtime follows the story of two cops whose daily
activities are produced into a TV cop show. Co-starring Rene Russo, the film opened with a
just ok $US15 million considering the star power in its line-up, but DeNiro could have played a
small part in that, as Showtime smells very similar to the poorly received 15 Minutes. Produced for a large $US85 million,
the Warner Bros. pic hasn't been playing that well with audiences, off a hefty 45% in its
second weekend due mainly to lukewarm word of mouth and extreme competition at the moment in the
U.S. Showtime hasn't been given a huge amount of promotion ahead of its release this
weekend, but Murphy and DeNiro should at least get a few people interested. Looking at
Bandits this last week, a film can't rely solely on its star power to sell itself, if the
concept doesn't look appealing to movie goers, they just wont turn up. Amongst the plethora of
children’s and family films opening this weekend, Showtime might find its way to around
$1.5 million over the long weekend frame.
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From the thick crop of family films opening this weekend comes the 20th anniversary release of
Steven Speilberg's E.T.: The Extra Terrestrial. First released in 1982, E.T.
was just as huge a phenomenon here as it was in the U.S., overtaking Star Wars in the U.S.
to become the highest grossing movie of all time at that point, and found that same mark here
overtaking 1982 local smash The Man From Snowy River. It held the top spot for four
years until another local production, Crocodile Dundee re-claimed the title of
Australia's number one film. The re-release, which boasts new scenes, digital effects editing
and remastered sound opened in the U.S. to the tune of $US15 million last weekend, a good
result but not huge. That saw E.T.'s all time total zoom to $US415 million. There is no
doubting the fact that Ice Age has an iron grip on the market at the moment and will
surely rule over Easter, but there will certainly be enough market to go around. E.T.
was a favourite with many people who saw the film as a child in its first release and will now
be eager to share that same magic with their own families. E.T. should score around $1.2
million this weekend.
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The last of the family films to try to earn a dollar over Easter is the Disney sequel Return
To Never Land. Following on from the adventures of the original classic Peter Pan,
Return To Never Land marks a sharp decline in the animation quality of Disney who
are obviously trying to cut costs as their all in house animated films of late have been mild
disappointments. That aside, Return To Never Land opened well in the U.S. in February
with $US15.6 million and has earned a decent $US46 million so far. The Buena Vista pic may
open with an ok $0.7 million this weekend, but has a chance of getting lost.
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Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius also opens this weekend in Victoria and Queensland only. The
Nickelodeon produced picture
follows on from the successful coupling with distributor Paramount, the pair who have previously
scored animation gold with Rugrats and its sequel. This time its an all computer animated
film which follows on from the Jimmy Neutron TV series. The plot in inconsequential, but
seems to follow Jimmy spearheading a rescue mission after all the parents on Earth are kidnapped
by aliens. Jimmy Neutron opened with a fine $US13.8 million in the U.S. and has gone
on to make a spectacular $US80 million. The series isn't as large or well known as some of
Nickelodeon's franchises, but would have to have found some sort of faithful audience on cable.
Jimmy Neutron will open behind the competition this weekend as it is waiting until April
11th in SA, NSW and WA for their school holidays, it may however score $0.5 million this
weekend.
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* Based on an index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per
head. |
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