Weekend 21st - 24th October 2004
Bizarrely, the star of the weekend was the Jennifer Lopez, Richard Gere and Susan Sarandon starring romantic drama Shall
We Dance. Waltzing off with a supreme $2.10 million over the weekend, the number one film drew in the crowds while
the other two openers of the weekend languished in third and fifth places with moderate and poor sales. The film about a
guy who takes dance classes to impress his wife opened on large 267 screens and swung up a nice $7,884 from each of them
for the best average in the top 20. The opening ranks as the 197th best of all time in Australia and the 25th for the year
so far.
Although the film was received relatively softly in the U.S. through its first weekend, that meant little to Australian audiences who proclaimed the film their obvious choice of the weekend. The introduction of the third heavy sci-fi genre pic in such a short time and a comedy that carried far less buzz coming up to release than may have been expected cleared the way for Shall We Dance to triumph. Was it the star power that brought Shall We Dance up and above everyone else this weekend? Surly not, as the three main contenders have appeared in countless box office duds in their time. Combine that with the logic of Resident Evil 2 coming in under expectations this weekend - there have been two other romantic comedies in the charts in the last few weeks. Shall We Dance seems to have just arrived at the right time, and remember that Australian audiences have proven to be receptive to the odd dancing in the past. The launch of Shall We Dance falls in between two other female skewing releases from 2004, the $2.11 million of Nicole Kidman's The Stepford Wives and the $2.04 million of Julia Roberts' Mona Lisa Smile. Those two films have earned $6.26 million and $7.87 million respectively. Of those two openings, it was Mona Lisa Smile that surprised through its February launch, much as Shall We Dance has done this time around. For the month of October, Shall We Dance's 10th best ever launch stands right next to Roberts' American Sweethearts in position nine. The Catherine Zeta-Jones co-starrer eventually made $8.05 million from its $2.17 million opening. For Lopez, who has been box office poison more often than not lately, Shall We Dance betters efforts like 2002's Enough, $382K opening and $1.06 million final, and 2000's The Cell, $1.14 million opening and $2.99 million final. She will be hoping that Shall We Dance's similar opening to the $2.24 million of 2003's Maid In Manhattan eventually matches its $8.74 million final. Compared to the U.S., Shall We Dance's Australian opening comes in a mighty 79% better*. Add in the small paid previews the film gathered here and it stands 82% ahead*. The surprising scenario here is the strength of the Australian launch, if one is ever able to adapt to that remains to be seen. Last weekend, Shall We Dance opened to moderate figures in the U.S. and was proclaimed a failure. However, the film has since proven to be one of the better performers of the chart in its second U.S. weekend, generating a strong hold from good word that may have translated locally. If a film of this genre arrives in Australia only one weekend after a U.S. launch, then it's usually a sign of a confident distributor. An excellent second weekend hold in the U.S. and a launch far above expectations in Australia signifies that they had a reason to be. 
Neutralizing zombies and news anchors eventually proved to be the least of Tom Cruise's problems, as his hit man thriller
Collateral was struck from left field by a swinging and waltzing Richard Gere. Still, and as expected
the Jamie Foxx co-starrer was one of the better holders of the weekend dipping a soft 37% from last weekend's top placed
opening. Collecting $1.56 million through the weekend, Collateral's total has now risen to $4.86 million.
Last weekend, Collateral opened slightly behind Dodgeball (including previews) at 2.28%, this weekend that margin has reversed to stand 1.05% ahead. Dodgeball's second weekend dip came in better at 31%, and went on to gather declines of below 30% for the next two weeks. Given that, it may be difficult for Collateral to reach up to $9 million of Dodgeball's current $9.50 million. Compared to other Cruise flicks Collateral is still in its early days, having passed the $4.31 million of Born on The Fourth of July. It should take another two weeks to pass his three Kidman co-starring features Days of Thunder, Far and Away and Eyes Wide Shut. Compared to the U.S. pace, Collateral's two week cume now sits 7% behind* in Australia, out from the almost neutral deficit of last weekend's opening. Although the second weekend was only 3% weaker* in Australia - the dip locally was comparable to the U.S.' 35% second weekend fall - the margin difference was a result from the mid-week frame coming in 28% lower* in Australia. 
The second of the three new films to enter the top five this weekend was the horror sequel Resident Evil 2:
Apocalypse. The video game adaptation which sees the return of Mila Jovovich as the zombie ass-kicking Alice
opened to a fairly lack-lutre $1.19 million this weekend. It's third placed opening was a few notches better than the
sixth placed opening that the first film managed back in 2002, although it's enlarged screen count didn't seem to
help it all that much. Deploying on 163 screens, Resident Evil 2: Apocalypse averaged an ok $7,334, which wasn't
all that far behind Shall We Dance's opening average.
Back in April of 2002, Resident Evil opened on 125 screens and scored a better $8,111 average. The lower screen count for the first film had something to do with five other films collecting over $1 million at the time, this weekend only Dance and Collateral had the honours. Opening with $1.01 million, Resident Evil wound up with a soft $2.71 million. Resident Evil 2 has pretty much sealed itself to that same fate with the possible addition of a couple of hundred thousand for a $3 million final. It's looking though at replicating Dawn of The Dead's $2.85 million final which was collected after its $1.05 million launch. Resident Evil 2 is a sequel after all and will be prone to falling quicker than Dawn's 53% and Resident Evil's 51% second weekend dips. Compared to the U.S. pace, Resident Evil 2's opening comes in 48% lower* in Australia. Back in early September Resident Evil 2 managed a strong top placed bow, topping the first films bow by a great 30%. Not so in Australia, as as mentioned, Resident Evil 2 timing of release is rather poor. AVP solidified demand for a genre that had been lacking a few weeks ago and Anacondas found some residual slops. Resident Evil 2 has done marginally better than Anacondas and in comparison it's a success, but Resident Evil 2 had potential to claim a larger audience than a sequel to Anaconda did. In Australia, the original Resident Evil opened 43% behind* the U.S. pace and finished 32% behind*. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Resident Evil 2's bow was a few places behind my $1.4 million prediction. 
If by count back for any reason the best performance of the weekend in wasn't Shall We Dance, then the honours go
to The Notebook. Between these two films and Wimbledon's break out success, romance themed films have been
cleaning up at the Australian box office. The Ryan Gosling starring feature was off a supremely small 21% for the best
hold outside the art house circuit. Collecting $0.84 million, The Notebook's total has zipped up to $2.71 million
in 11 days, including previews.
Last weekend with previews included, The Notebook opened 10.4% ahead of last February's Under The Tuscan Sun. Although the Diane Lane starring film was off by a slightly larger 27% in its second weekend, it's Valentines Day setting ensured good mid-week business. Currently The Notebook is still ahead with a 3.9% lead. In the U.S. the film had remarkable holding power which is already translating in Australia. The Notebook will need to keep it up however if it wants to match Tuscan's $6.04 million final, as it managed 27, 31, 28, 35 and 27% falls through its first six weeks. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Notebook is now tracking 14% behind* in Australia. Although this is out from the 2% positive margin from after last weekend, it's actually an improvement on what was a 21% lower* opening weekend with previews excluded. The chances that The Notebook will improve on that current margin are debatable. The Notebook for whatever reasons had arguably been the breakout of the year in the U.S. Reaching that same level would be a difficult task for a any film with what are relatively unknown leads. There's no tangible reason why it can't go on to be a hit in Australia, and continue with the same positive word from week to week. With the surprises of the last few weeks, anything seems possible. 
We've talked successes, now let's talk the weekend's casualties. In position five it was Anchorman: The Legend of Ron
Burgundy which generated the least amount interest from the new films, and in this case it was damagingly low. The
Will Ferrell starring comedy about an anchorman who battles with his new female co-anchor opened with just $0.76 million
over the weekend. Unspooling on 177 screens, the film managed only a $4,332 average.
So why did it open so low? It's true Anchorman wasn't the break out follow up success to Elf that people may have been expecting in the U.S., but it's not as though the film bomber there either. It was a moderate performer and still remains in the top 20 for the year. So who is Will Ferrell? Apart from a recognizable role in Old School, most people have known him only from Elf. The Christmas themed comedy wasn't huge in Australia and it appears those who did see it, didn't walk away convinced Ferrell was a comic genius. And it's true, he's not a pretty man. If people have a choice in looking at him or Tom Cruise for an hour and half there's little debate for anyone. Anchorman though is in the same class of comedy as Dodgeball, neither of them are high brow, and it's not as though Vince Vaughn is an A-list star who's instantly recognizable. Dodgeball was a success, while Anchorman was not. They both did well in the U.S., but Anchorman has bombed here. Perhaps it needed the backing of the holidays, but still it's the only new comedy to open in the last four weeks, so something better should have been expected. Anchorman's opening isn't all that much lower than Elf's $1.04 million bow, although we won't be expecting Anchorman to jump 11% in its second weekend. The opening though was strangely less than the $0.77 million of 2003's Old School, and if you had to choose between it coming closer to either Elf's $8.43 million final or Old School's $2.15 million, then our money's on Luke Wilson. Compared the U.S. pace, Anchorman's opening comes in a massive 77% lower* in Australia. Old School opened and remained in the 70% lower* range in Australia, while Elf opened 47% lower* and finished 51% lower*. So Anchorman proves to be the worst performing Ferrell film in Australia in comparison to the U.S. Surly it wasn't competition that over shadowed the film. The success of Dodgeball in Australia should have encouraged its distributor to be more aggressive with the film, but obviously large falls from its run in the U.S. pushed them the other way. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Anchorman's debut was quite a distance behind my $2.2 million and subsequently predicted number one bow. The top 20 films collected $9.09 million this weekend, up just 0.3% from last weekend but up 10.7% on this weekend a year ago when much like this weekend, a romance that was disposed of in the U.S. generated good numbers in Australia. It was Intolerable Cruelty opening with $1.91 million while Freddy Vs. Jason opened with $1.31 million in second. The weekend was up just 0.9% on this weekend from two years ago when My Big Fat Greek Wedding saw its first official weekend figure of $3.35 million keep it on top of the chats. Red Dragon bowed in second place with a fine $2.20 million. Weekend Coming 28th - 31st October 2004 
Two films look to be pushed out of the top five this weekend and the film to pushing the most looks to be The Manchurian
Candidate. Denzel Washington is back in the hope he can use his Man of Fire success from earlier this year
to convince people to see him a third time in one year. Co-starring Liev Schreiber and Meryl Streep and directed by
Jonathon Demme (Silence of The Lambs), The Manchurian Candidate is a remake from the 70's film of the same
name. This time around we have a soldier from the Gulf War who is convinced that he and his platoon were captured and
experimented upon while on duty. With an old member of his squad set to run for president, he's convinced that they're both
victims of mind control.
The Manchurian Candidate opened in the U.S. with an impressive $US20.0 million back in July, which was at the time a third placed bow behind the much more heavily promoted The Village which netted $US50 million and the second weekend of The Bourne Supremacy. It didn't hold as well as may have been expected by its studio and rounded out with $US65.5 million. It's been a good year for Washington in the U.S. with this as Man On Fire having generated a better $US22.7 million opening and $US77.9 million final In Australia, Washington's films are generally soft performers, and that was the case early this year when Out of Time launched in January with just $0.56 million and finished with $1.31 million. Things improved as August rolled around when Man On Fire generated the actor's best ever opening with $1.80 million. Holding power was fair, and its eventual $5.61 million counts as his fifth best to date just behind The Pelican Brief's $6.09 million. The Manchurian Candidate unfortunately doesn't look to have the gusto needed to break any new records for the actor, despite relevance concerning the influence of big business and the U.S. presidential election less than a week away. Now may have been a more appropriate time to release the film in the states rather than try to gain ground on release timing in Australia. The Manchurian Candidate may still open with a decent $1.5 million this weekend and while second place is more likely, it may just defeat Shall We Dance's second frame. 
With Resident Evil 2 having opened with a standardly banal result this weekend, does that mean that there's no room
left for ultra B-grade abortions like The Exorcist: The Beginning? Out to try and gather some dollars on back of
a Halloween that's barely celebrated here, the Renny Harlin (Long Kiss Goodnight, Die Hard 2) directed
feature stars Stellan Skarsgard. It's a prequel of sorts that sets out to explain the origins of father Merrin and the
demon that eventually goes on to possess Regan in The Exorcist. Set in Africa, it revolves around a church that was
built on the site of a massacre to contain evil forces. Having been uncovered, the church's previously contained demon is
now cutting loose again.
The Exorcist: The Beginning opened in the U.S. with a very strong $US18.0 million. Deservedly the film imploded from there, having netted $US41.6 million close to its end. All up though, it's similar to 2000's The Exorcist re-issue that roused a respectable $US39.7 million and has out-grossed many of the year's more expensive films like Catwoman, 80 Days and The Alamo to name a few. Fans of the original film will more than likely see The Exorcist: The Beginning for what it really is, rather than as a film that actually respects the base material and makes sense of it. If there's any film of the genre that's looking to open proportionally as weak as it can in Australia compared to its U.S. bow, then The Exorcist: The Beginning is it. With this film it's almost transparent that those looking for a decent scare, or even something that doesn't bore them to death, are going to be bitterly disappointed in it. The Exorcist: The Beginning should struggle to open with $0.6 million this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |