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Weekend 22nd - 25th August 2002
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The number one film around the country over the weekend was the new Adam Sandler flick Mr Deeds. Brushing aside any
doubts as to his drawing power in the face of what was going to be, and ending up being a healthy fight against last weeks
number one, Signs, Sandler had only one Sign to show Mel, and it was the door to second place.
In the end it wasn't as close as it could have been, with Mr Deeds finishing a good half million ahead. Opening around
the country with a decent $2.69 million, the film that co-stars Winona Ryder and follows the Longfellow Deeds, who inherits
$40 billion worth of shares in a media company after his late great uncle passes away. A remake of the 1936 film Mr
Deeds Goes To Town, Longfellow is targeted by a reporter whose first intension is to do an expose on the lucky heir,
but ends up falling in love with him. Opening on a wide 277 screens, the 13th widest No.1 of the year, the Steven Brill
directed comedy collected a fairly good $9,720 per board room for the 15th highest screen average for a No.1 film this
year. So far, counting in previews, Mr Deeds has $2.74 million to its name
The opening of Mr Deeds stands as the ninth best of the year so far, coming in just under Minority Reports'
$2.78 million and stands as the 74th largest launch of all time in Australia. Compared to other Sandler starring fare of
recent years, the opening of Mr Deeds was almost right on track with the $2.7 million opening of 1999's Big
Daddy, coming in just $14,000 shy. Big Daddy launched on a few extra screens back then, 285, and was directly
contesting the opening weekend of another comedy, American Pie. Both films enjoyed solid success. With a lunch so
close to Big Daddy's, it goes without saying that it compares similarly to that film against his other openers,
coming in under the $3.3 million that The Waterboy made in early 1999 but ahead of the $0.95 million of 2000's
Little Nicky.
Adam Sandler films have always performed lower* in both opening weekend figures and final grosses when compared to the U.S.
precedent, and this weekend in Australia, Mr Deeds is no different. Looking at this trend, with The Waterboy
opening 15.3% weaker*, Big Daddy opening 34.1% weaker* and Little Nicky opening 40.6% behind*, the margin has
been becoming progressively larger. Although still opening behind* the U.S. opening, this time Mr Deeds has bucked
at least that trend, opening 27.0% weaker*, or the second best margin of the Sandler films do far. Mr Deeds enjoyed
a remarkable run in the U.S., going on to earn a great $US122 million towards the end of its run on the back of some
commendable, although not spectacular holding power. Australia will struggle to hold the declines of Mr Deeds
below the 50% mark as is will not have the advantage of any public holidays, and the next lot of school holidays are four
weeks away at the earliest. By then the best part of its money making run will be over.
Mr Deeds was a solid performer over the weekend, opening higher than my expected second place finish and selling
just enough shares to inch ahead of my $2.5 million forecast, however close it was.
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Falling from first to second place at the hands of the swarm of Adam Sandler fans was the Mel Gibson starring thriller
Signs. The film about one families personal experience of dealing with a harrowing world-wide alien invasion suffered
a 42% fall from its great launch last weekend, quite a steep fall considering the calibre of the film. Adding one theatre
to its count from last weekend, the film still had a fairly good average of $6,542, the third best in the top ten after two
of the new openers. The weekend take tallied $2.19 million and after 11 days of release the M Night Shyamalan film has
captured a very decent $7.3 million.
Compared to the directors last two films, Signs is tracking a healthy 52% ahead of Unbreakable after 11 days,
although, without too much argument his 2000 effort was considered a commercial disappointment. The Bruce Willis and Samuel
L. Jackson film did score slightly better holding power however, down 40% in its second weekend. Compared to his debut
effort, The Sixth Sense, Signs is tracking 31.1% behind after 11 days. The Haley Joel Osment film dipped
by only 11% through its second weekend and went on to find spectacular holding power week after week. Signs should
pass Unbreakable's final total of $8.7 million by the start of next weekend, but reaching the $29 million of The
Sixth Sense may be just a tad out of reach.
Comparing Signs to Mel's last couple of films, it's tracking 70% ahead of We Were Soldiers after 11 days and
has already passed its final total of $7.2 million. Compared to Mel's biggest ever hit in Australia, it is tracking 38.6%
behind What Women Want after 11 days. The Helen Hunt co-starrer went on to earn a sensational $22.5 million in
Australia on the back of 41% and 32% second and third week falls. Signs has already lost ground on percentage falls
compared to What Women Want on top of a dollar value second weekend that was 26.6% weaker. Signs is performing
better than both 1998's Lethal Weapon 4, and 2000's The Patriot. Each had $5.6 million after 11 days to give
Signs a 30.3% lead. Compared to last weekend's control film of choice, Planet Of The Apes, Signs has
pretty much kept the same ratio, only 5.2% behind after 11 days after an opening that was 5.0% behind. That film fell 46%
in its second weekend for a take of $2.13. The Mark Walberg film experienced falls of between 40 - 50% for the rest of its
run, something Signs will want to avoid if it wants to top Apes' $11.6 million. Matching the $14.8 million of
Gibson's 1996 flick Ransom may be a steep task for Signs from here.
Signs hasn't been able to match the late summer fuelled U.S. performance of the film in Australia, now 37.6% behind*
that two week mark, an ever so slight increase from a launch that was 37.1% behind*. A slightly better mid week take in
Australia and a higher second weekend dip in the U.S. of 51% masks a second weekend that was 25.5% behind* the U.S. take
in Australia. Signs managed to ease those dips to 34% and 26% in its third and fourth weekends in the U.S.,
something that could be difficult for the film to replicate in Australia due to the soft overall box office and the onset
of The Sum Of All Fears this weekend. About A Boy thrived on the lack of competition, but it seems Signs
is finding it hard to do the same.
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Speaking of About A Boy, the Hugh Grant starrer managed another ok hold, albeit the largest one of its career, down
an acceptable 35% in its fourth weekend. Finally feeling the effects of not being the only show in town it was down another
spot to third with $0.74 million. The film, which co-stars Toni Collette as a depressed hippie mother of a boy who
befriends Grant's self-centred Will has done a terrific job in Australia, having collected $7.9 million. Although quite
a distance behind his better known efforts of Four Wedding And A Funeral, Notting Hill and Bridget Jones's
Diary, the success of About A Boy has arguably been built solely on Grants star-driven performance. That's not
bad when comparing it to those of Liz Hurley's continual under-performing efforts, although she's never really had a hit to
begin with. Maybe Andie McDowell is a better example? About A Boy has $2 million to go to reach $10 million in
Australia, a target it should eventually be able to reach.
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Probably the biggest disappointment of the weekend was the opening of the Divine Secrets Of The Ya-Ya Sisterhood.
Starring Sandra Bullock, Ashley Judd, Maggie Smith and Ellen Burstyn, the film that was adapted from the Rebecca Wells
novel follows a woman who talks about her unhappy childhood in an interview concerning her new play. Her remarks provoke
a long distance brawl between her and her mother back in Louisiana. The film about a bunch women doing what they do when
they are strong willed, etc, managed a very soft $0.46 million from a medium screen count of 166 which suggests an
expectation of at least a $1 million opening. Averaging a poor $2,827 per nut house, Ya-Ya has one of the worst
opening averages of the year for a film opening on more than 150 screens, comparable to the first weekends of Jimmy
Neutron and Rollerball. Although to be fair to Jimmy Neutron, it opened before the school holidays with
expectations of improvement, and it did. We all know how much of a bomb Rollerball was.
The downright pathetic opening of Ya-Ya gives it almost no room to be fit for a comparison of the U.S. performance,
which was actually quite good. Opening 71% behind* the U.S. take, the soft opening may be explained by the lack of
penetration of the book into Australia before the release of the movie. The movie was well promoted before its release
suggesting nothing more than a general lack of interest from its target demographic. Perhaps Terri's baby problems in
All Saints is just too much of an ordeal for today's women to be able to fit in another one. It seems someone
estrogenised my predict-o-meter last weekend, at least that could explain the hefty $1 million misfire. Shazzam.
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Bend It Like Beckham may be showing signs that it's finally starting to perform like a regular film, with a dip of
24% in its eighth solid week. Also a rarity, the film failed to score the best hold in the top ten. The dip counts as the
second highest fall for the film so far, indicating just how well the film has been holding before now. Any other film
would be blessed to score a 28% dip in a weekend. The film about a girl who wishes to against her family's will collected
$0.46 million over the weekend and now has $9.67 million in its vault. Bend It Like Beckham should pass the $10
million mark at the start of next weekend and a brilliant $12 million final total should be in order.
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- The third new opener of the weekend was the Jack Black and Colin Hanks starring comedy Orange County. The film about
a guy who must try to get into his college of choice anyway he can after his career adviser sends in the wrong application
collect a soft $0.2 million through its first four days. Opening on a medium 130 screens, the film scored a worse average
than Ya-Ya with an awful $1,551 per screen. The film was even worse than Ya-Ya when compared to its U.S.
opening, down a massive* 86.5% on it's U.S. opening.
- In seventh place was the disposable Nicole Kidman flick Birthday Girl. Down 45% in its third sobering weekend the
Ben Chaplin co-starring film collecting just $0.16 million for a total of $1.28 million.
- The fourth new film to score a place in the top ten was the eighth place finalist Y Tu Mama Tambien. The
controversial Mexican film about two guys and girl who go on a road trip of discovery made of $0.16 million in its first
try. Directed by Alfonso Cuaron, future director of Harry Potter 3, the film opened on a selected 13 screens for
a great non-IMAX besting average of $12,364 per screen. The film made a good $US13.6 million in the U.S. from 286 screen
at its widest point.
- The Sweetest Thing was down another hefty 59% in its fifth weekend. The Cameron Diaz starring film made $0.12
million for a current cume of $3.79 million.
- Also in limited release, Last Orders added one more screen to go to its widest count yet of 44 screens and a tenth
place finish. Collecting $0.11 million, the Michael Caine starring drama has been a solid performer outside the top ten
for the last six weeks and has quietly amassed a very respectable $2.3 million cume. Having kept its declines below 25%
for its entire run, its 6% drop was the best in release.
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The top 20 films collected $8.0 million, down 10.1% on this weekend last year when local boy Heath Ledger took on his first
solo headlining role with the great $2.2 million bow of A Knight's Tale. The film went on to collect a very good $8.9
million in Australia. The top ten was up 22.2% on this weekend two years ago when Road Trip led a depressed market
with $1.77 million in its opening frame, ahead of fellow newbie Hollow Man's $1.4 million.
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Weekend Coming - Weekend 29th August - 1st September 2002
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Hoping to make it three new No.1 films in three weeks and knock Mr Deeds from the number one position this week is
the only major wide release The Sum Of All Fears. Starring Ben Affleck and Morgan Freeman Fears is the latest
adaptation from author Tom Clancey's library of political thrillers. Directed by Phil Alden Robinson (Sneakers,
Field Of Dreams), this outing features a younger CIA analyst in Jack Ryan, who had previously been played by
Alec Baldwin in The Hunt For Red October and an much older Harrison Ford in Patriot Games and
Clear and Present Danger. Young enough to be his own son, this time out Jack is recruited by the CIA director
for advice when the president of Russia dies and political paranoia between the two countries becomes critical after a
nuclear incident is blamed on Russia's new leader.
Distributed by Paramount in the U.S., The Sum Of All Fears opened in the U.S. in June with a successful $US31.2
million. Produced for $US68 million, the film has gone on to score a very healthy $US118 million close to the end of its
theatrical run. A film like this would be expected to do very well in ancillary revenue streams such as DVD and with the
film being the first in the series to earn over $US100 million at the box office, Paramount has scored a great hit with
this film, so you can expect more Affleck starring Clancy films in the future. The Sum Of All Fears has been the
third most successful Clancy film so far, besting 1990's The Hunt For Red October's opening weekend by 81.3% but
falling behind the final take by a slim 1.6%. It's done better than Ford's first effort, opening 68.6% and 53.6% better,
and finishing off 42.1% better, but 3.2% lower than 1992's Patriot Games and 1994's Clear and Present Danger
respectively.
Although The Sum Of All Fears has been a very good success in the U.S., elsewhere around the world it has been only
a moderately good to passable performer. The Sum Of All Fears doesn't really have what it takes to be a huge hit,
or even moderate hit in Australia. $10 million is probably way out of the range of fire for this Affleck powered missile.
It's distributor knows that political thrillers tend to make less in Australia than in the U.S., but the film has still been
well promoted for what it is without going overboard. Whether you like him or not, Affleck has some draw power and Freeman
is usually associated with projects that end up being nothing less than at least good. The Sum Of All Fears may
open with around $1.8 million this weekend.
122.8
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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