Ben Stiller and Jennifer Aniston claimed pole position over the Australia Day weekend for 2004, although figures released
were for the regular four-day frame, rather than the extended holiday weekend. Regardless, Along Came Polly was the
champion whichever figures you by, opening in top spot with a fine $2.55 million. The story about New York's best risk
analyst, who hooks up with a girl that lives a lifestyle far different to the one he has become accustomed to opened an a
rather medium 200 screens, but managed a fairly good average of $12,762 on each of them.
Along Came Polly's opening was UIP Universal's best and the third best for the year so far, just coming in ahead of the $2.54 million of Something's Gotta Give from two weeks ago. The Nicholson flick has enjoyed great holding power, and as another comedy, it's something that Along Came Polly would certainly hope to aspire to, although the end of the January holidays may see that task prove a little too challenging. For Stiller, the opening of Along Came Polly counts as his second best to date, behind only the $4.19 million entry of 2000's Meet The Parents, which went on to collect a great $21.22 million, still his best performing film in both respects to date. Stiller's best performing film in terms of holding power was of course There's Something About Mary, which opened with $2.08 million in 1998 and collected $20 million. Along Came Polly's appeal, although delivering good results so far, won't go on to match the performance of the pioneering gross-out comedy. It should however be good enough to pass the $7.52 million of 2000's Keeping The Faith which opened with $1.72 million.
Compared to the U.S. opening of Along Came Polly, which itself was just the weekend before, the Australian dip comes in a small 8% down* on what was also a chart-topping U.S. result. The 8% lower result is a direct comparison between the non-holiday frames in both countries, as the irregular five-day Australia Day vs. four-day Martin Luther King Jr. comparison isn't available. Along Came Polly performed ok in its second weekend in the U.S. off 41%, not quite as good as the Keaton nominated film did locally in its second weekend, but a result that would be respectable if were to do the same here. Compared to my weekend forecast, the opening of $2.55 million was a little down on my $3.2 million prediction, but in fairness that was made with the long-weekend in mind, perhaps a Monday result of half a million or so would have pushed it somewhat closer.
Opening with strength in second place was the Kate Beckinsale and Scott Speedman Werewolf vs. Vampire flick
Underworld. With opening results that may be as initially surprising as the U.S. results were when it opened way
back in September, the story about a war between the Lycans and Vampires in which a human may hold the key to the end
of the war, has proven many wrong before with its successes. Opening with a great $1.88 million, Underworld managed
to score the best average in the top 20, with a hot $12,930 from each of its 146 theatres, the second best of an opening
film so far this year, behind the perplexing popularity that greeted Welcome To The Jungle with $15,285.
Having been produced by Screen Gems, their first opening of 2004 in Australia has netted some fine results, especially considering that Underworld in a candidate for the the same old horror film club that continually underperforms in Australia. But while Underworld may not have succeeded in passing or matching the U.S. precedent - which of course we'll get to in the last paragraph - it can't be classed as disappointingly soft, such as were the Australian debuts of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Freddy Vs. Jason. The opening of Underworld trumps both of those films by 72.7% and 43.2%, which in real dollars were $1.09 and $1.31 million respectively, a credit to Underworld's performance in Australia, considering that it opened far below both of those films in the U.S., 23% and 40% behind.
The opening of Underworld more closely resembles the $1.92 million launch of 2000's Sleepy Hollow. The Tim Burton horror entry held as expected for its genre, going on to earn a fine $7.13 million. That's co-indecently right next to the $7.15 million of that years The Talented Mr. Ripley, which also debuted to a similar $1.85 million. 1998's vampire flick Blade also launched with $1.81 million, earning a softer $5.36 million. Given Underworld's poor timing for release, it is more likely headed towards Blade's figures than it is Sleepy Hollow's final.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Underworld's Australian opening comes in a slight 13% down* on what was a great number one U.S. launch. The film's holding power wasn't great in the U.S., but it should be expected for a film like this whose audience was always going to be front-loaded, we can probably expect that to happen in Australia also, now that the holiday period is over. Back in 1998, Blade opened 6% ahead* of the U.S. pace, going on to finish 23% behind*. As an explanation for that % shift, Blade did hold better than Underworld in the U.S., so we can probably assume that if Underworld performs the same as Blade did in Australia, the margin won't go on to finish* as far behind in Australia. Compared to my forecast, Underworld's debut easily beat my soft $1 million prediction, which admittedly was even for the five days.
Falling two places to third from its first place launch last weekend was the Tom Cruise epic The Last Samurai. The
film about a captured American military advisor who learns the way of the Samurai and decides to join them in their last
fight against the Emperor's army was off 46% in its second weekend, collecting $1.83 million. The dip was quite large, at
least in comparison to what we have seen from debuting films over the last month, although the holiday period has been
quite generous to the films launching within it, perhaps abnormally so, and this fall is a correction of sorts. Having
received four Oscar nominations, The Last Samurai may see an improvement in its hold this weekend coming, although
that is debatable given that it doesn't boast any nominations in the major categories. Having collected $6.5 million so
far, The Last Samurai ranks as the fourth best film so far this year, although it should pass Welcome To The
Jungle and enter the $10 million club within the next few weeks.
Having launched 22.3% better than 2002's Minority Report last weekend, the hefty dip has seen The Last Samurai's lead reduced to stand just 7.8% ahead. The Steven Spielberg directed flick was off only 18% going into its second weekend, thanks to the profitable winter holiday period boosting its numbers. Minority Report went on to collect $12.02 million, and with holding power in the 30-40% range through weeks three and four, The Last Samurai has its work cut out if it wants to make $10 million, let alone match it, as there will be no Oscar boost for this film.
Compared to the U.S. pace, The Last Samurai is now tracking 39% ahead* in Australia of what it made after two weekends of play in the U.S. Down just 1% after opening 40% up* last weekend, The Last Samurai's second weekend dip in Australia was slightly higher than the 42% dip it managed in the U.S. The Last Samurai saw some great holds in the U.S. through weeks four and five, of which will not be replicated in Australia, so look for that margin* to reduce greatly over the next few weeks.
Still playing to plenty of patrons after five weeks is the The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. In what is
sure to be a solid next month or two for the film, thanks to a clean sweep of 11 Oscar nominations, the Peter Jackson
directed epic is still hoping to reach the all-time number two position. Collecting $1.68 million and off 31% through the
regular four-day weekend, Return of the King has seen its total elevate to a cracking $40.78 million to sit in
position six on the all-time chart, passing The Phantom Menace and sitting behind 2001's
Harry Potter and The Philosopher's Stone.
The fifth weekend counts as the ninth largest in Australia, although in non-holiday dollars its the eighth best, with Return of the King just edging out the $1.62 million four-day take of last year's The Two Towers. Compared to the other Rings films, Return of the King tracking 5.5% ahead of The Two Towers which had $38.65 million at the close of the weekend five regular frame, almost unchanged from the 5.8% lead it had last weekend. Return of the King is tracking 6.5% ahead of Fellowship which had $38.25 million after five weeks, including the fifth holiday frame, down from the 10.4% lead it had last weekend. Although the percentage lead continues to be whittled away, in real dollar terms, Return of the King still remains more than $2 million each of each of the previous two films. And of course, with 4 Golden Globe winners, and a large sack waiting to bring home a healthy percentage of award conversions from its 11 Oscar nominations, it has a chance however unlikely to equal Titanic's record of 11 statues.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Return of the King is now tracking 25% ahead* in Australia, up again from last weekend's 22% better* margin. The Rings films have always done better in Australia, and despite the record bow starting only 3% ahead*, its really starting to show it. Despite some comparable weekend percentage changes, Australia's weekends are proving to be far more profitable*, with Australia's weekend five coming in 65% better* than its non-holiday U.S. try. This time last year Towers was 31% ahead of the U.S. pace, while Fellowship was 54% ahead*. If Return of the King performs like Fellowship from now on, it will reach around $49 million, if it performs like The Two Towers did from here to close, it will reach around $47 million.
Still doing very well for itself, and proving its got what it takes, Something's Gotta Give scored the best hold in
the top ten, off a slim 29%. With both of its leads nominated at the Golden Globes and only one granted the opportunity to
give an acceptance speech, it may just have become Diane Keaton's film, rather than the more recognizable Jack Nicholson.
Also with a nomination for Best Actress at the Oscars, Something's Gotta Give's $1.53 million third weekend has
helped push its total to a sparkling $8.43 million, with the $10 million mark a certainty by next weekend's close to make
it the second films of 2004 to reach that mark after Spy Kids 3D.
After opening 2.3% ahead of the 1998 hit The Wedding Singer, Something's Gotta Give has shown a good deal of stick-to-it-ive-ness, to stand just 2% behind the Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore flick. The 80's set flick went on to collect $17.16 million, and although doubtful that Something's Gotta Give can reach those heights, its current rosy performances give reason to make you think twice. The field of competition during April and May of 1998 was very sparse, so if Something's Gotta Give can reach even $15 million, then its done extremely well given what really is fierce competition - seven films collected over $1 million each this weekend. For a film to survive three or more weeks in this environment, then there's an audience that's loving it.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Something's Gotta Give is now tracking 51% ahead* in Australia, although this is down somewhat on the 78% positive margin* from last weekend. The difference is explained by the film's 21% rise in its third weekend in the U.S., thanks to the Christmas frame, although the Australian third weekend was still 11% better*. The film has continued to have excellent holds throughout its run in the U.S., but Something's Gotta Give's Australian pace should have no problems in finishing at least 35% ahead*.
The top 20 films collected $16.4 million over the weekend, which was off only 4.1% from last weekend, and counts as the 15th largest top 20 take of all time in Australia, five of which have occurred in past five weeks alone. The weekend was up 10.6% on this weekend from last year when 8 Mile led again in its second weekend with $2.84 million, ahead of Chicago's $1.85 million opening frame. The weekend was only 0.5% up on this weekend from two years ago, although that's a comparison to this year's four-day weekend, against 2001's five-day weekend, the only figures available. The charts were led through that frame by Ocean's Eleven in its third frame with $3.19 million, ahead of Fellowship and Spy Game's $2.44 million launch.
Weekend Coming 29th January - 1st February 2004
With the holiday period now over, the February dumping ground is ripe for new arrivals. Four months after its U.S. release,
the Denzel Washington thriller Out of Time finally hits our screens in the hopes it can perform more like a
delayed Underworld than a delayed Antwone Fisher. Also starring Eva Mendes and directed by Carl Franklin,
(High Crimes, Nowhere To Run), the film follows police chief Matt Whitlock, who falls under the suspicion of
a double homicide from his own force after it is discovered he had dealings with one of the supposed victims.
The MGM film opened in the U.S. back in October with a fine $US16.2 million. The $US50 million production failed to find any solid holding power, going on to close out with an ok $US41 million. Out of Time is up on Washington's last flick, Antwone Fisher, which opened in limited play going on to collect a soft $US21 million. However Out of Time is down on his 2002 flick John Q, which opened with $US23.6 million, leading on to a solid $US71 million. Other successes like Training Day's $US76.3 million and Remember The Titans' $US115.6 million still remain to be replicated, but perhaps this year's Man On Fire will be the one to do it.
With the basic plot of Out of Time resembling Washington's own Fallen and Ricochet with their 'cop on the run' get up, its strange that he would choose another action clone. As to whether audiences in Australia will bite on this, even to the soft degree as they did in the U.S. is unlikely. While his film have been continually good performers in the U.S., they have been regular softies in Australia. His last film, Antwone Fisher scored poorly, opening with just $330K, on its way to $0.82 million. His best film to date is 2000's The Hurricane which collected a total of $7.07 million from a $1.56 million opening weekend, while his best opener is 1999's The Bone Collector which bowed with $1.64 million and earned $7.01 million. Consistency hasn't been a problem for Washington, but finding that break-out hit has been. Out of Time won't be that film for him, but if it can open with $1 million this weekend, then he will have another $3 million film.
* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.