Weekend 22nd - 25th July 2004
There's no stopping Will Smith from reaching the top of the charts when he has a new film out. Overcoming some negative
buzz and a world of hostile robots, the Alex Proyas directed Fox feature I, Robot enjoyed a solid number one bow
with a $4.63 million first weekend. Knocking King Arthur to second place, Smith anchored I, Robot to his
fourth debut over $4 million and the sixth best launch of 2004 so far. Opening on 346 screens, the film about a detective
who has a suspicion that robots can't be trusted, and is seemingly proven correct when a robot is found hiding at the scene
of a human fatality, averaged a very good $13,406 from each of them. Counting in the films small portion of previews,
I, Robot currently has a total of $6.64 million.
For Smith, I, Robot's opening comes in behind $7.71 million of 1996's Independence Day, the $6.23 million of 1997's Men In Black and the $5.35 million of its sequel from 2002. With the opening for I, Robot coming in around a million less than Men In Black II's opening, I, Robot's chances of going on to match the $17.61 million final total of MIB II are mixed. The Tommy Lee Jones co-starrer scored only moderate holding power due to an indisputably shocking quality of film, although launching through the school holiday period made sure its declines weren't as horrific as they should have been. That's a luxury that unfortunately for I, Robot it doesn't have, holding well in its attempt to reach that mark will be made all the more difficult by The Chronicles of Riddick opening this weekend. Looking at the non-Will Smith scale, I, Robot's opening counts as fifth best launch for the month of July and the 42nd best opening of All-Time in Australia, coming in just behind the $4.66 million of 1999's The Sixth Sense and ahead of the $4.59 million of last May's Van Helsing. Although gathering $29.29 million is out of the question, I, Robot will be surly hoping to excel the $12.67 million that the Hugh Jackman starrer made in its eight weeks in the charts. Reviews are much better for I, Robot than they were for Van Helsing, so you can count that in as a certainty rather than a possibility. If so, that would make I, Robot Smith's fourth most successful film in front of the $10.61 million earned by 2003's Bad Boys II. Compared to the U.S. pace, I, Robot's opening comes in 11% down* in Australia. The launch in the U.S. was a surprisingly strong one, also counting as the sixth best of the year at the time. Historically though, it was on par with Smith's MIB films, also July openers which count in positions six, seven and eight for the month of July. I, Robot dipped by a large 58% in its second weekend in the U.S. due to The Bourne Supremacy's equally strong and surprising launch. It has a good chance however of pulling a better hold in Australia this coming weekend due to some less ferocious new competition. The opening difference* for I, Robot was better than Smith's last film, Bad Boys II, which opened 34% weaker* in Australia in September last year. Compared to my weekend forecast, I, Robot's opening was a few notches higher than my $4 million prediction. 
Last weekend's victor King Arthur lost some footing in its second battle, although it still managed to bring home a
sizable trophy despite some large wounds. Falling a rather large 55%, the second weekend fall counts as the third steepest
for a $3 million + debut this year, behind the 66% freefall of Azkaban and the 56% dip of Kill Bill: Volume
II. King Arthur's story is set after the collapse of the Roman Empire where conflicting knights struggle to fill
the void of rule until a king arrives to unite them all by means of a round table. Collecting $1.52 million, King
Arthur has seen its total grow to an ok $5.90 million. This ranks King Arthur as the 24th best film so far for
2004.
Although it launched on par with Tom Cruise's January epic The Last Samurai, King Arthur's dip was a little harsher than the Ken Wanatabe co-starrer's 46% second weekend fall. Currently King Arthur is tracking 9.6% behind The Last Samurai, out from its mere 1.6% weaker bow last weekend. King Arthur is beginning to look a little more like The Hulk, which was off 56% in its second weekend for a $1.45 million second frame. The Eric Bana starring comic adaptation had a similar $6.11 million after two weeks on its way to a soft $9.65 million total. With two new films entering the market this weekend, King Arthur is now looking unlikely to cross $10 million, although anything around the $9 million mark would certainly be seen as pleasing considering its lack-luster domestic performance. Compared to that domestic performance, King Arthur is now tracking 55% ahead* in Australia. While this is down from the 120% better* opening weekend, its up from the 42% better* first weekend close, which was skewed against Australia's favour by the U.S.' Wednesday opening. While it's taken for granted that King Arthur was a disappointment in the U.S., it actually scored a better second weekend decline there of 52%. That's not really saying much considering how inferior the U.S. opening weekend was to Australia's though. The second weekend itself comes in a mighty 113% better* in Australia. 
See below for Fahrenheit 9/11's opening weekend analysis.
Fairing better in its second weekend decline was the Nicole Kidman starring The Stepford Wives. Directed by Frank
Oz, the story in which a family move to the small town of Stepford to start over only to discover that the women of
Stepford are a little more cyborg than normal, dipped 47% in its second weekend. Collecting $1.11 million, The Stepford
Wives has seen its total rise to a less than compelling $3.98 million in 11 days.
Compared to Kidman's January flick Cold Mountain, The Stepford Wives is now tracking 2.7% ahead, down from its 13.9% better opening last weekend. The Jude Law co-starrer was off a milder 40% in its second frame for a $1.13 million weekend. The Stepford Wives still has the potential to reach $7.5 million if it steadies this coming weekend. Compared to Mona Lisa Smile, The Stepford Wives is now tracking 9.6% behind, pretty much on par with the 9.5% negative margin at the close of the first weekend of play - counting in Smile's previews. The Julia Roberts flick enjoyed declines in the 30-40% bracket for four weeks in its path to $7.68 million. Stepford is already showing a weaker path than that, but it will probably just trickle over $7 million in the end. Compared to the U.S. pace The Stepford Wives is now tracking 2% ahead* in Australia, a small turnaround from last weekend's 1% smaller* opening weekend. The second weekend frame was 27% better* in Australia thanks to a much better hold than the U.S.' 59% second weekend crumble. 
It's been out for six weeks now, but Shrek 2 still had enough power for one more week in the top five. Feeling the
effects of the school semester, Shrek 2 was off 51% from last weekend. Although it wasn't a record showing as Mike
and co. have been used to, for a sixth weekend effort it was still one of the best with its $1.04 million counting as the
18th best 6th Weekend of all time. Other milestones of the weekend included Shrek
2's cume of $47.94 million elevating it third on the All-Time earners list in Australia,
passing not only The Fellowship of The Ring's $47.03 million, but also Crocodile Dundee's $47.94 million.
Shrek 2 needs only $1.4 million more before it passes Return of The King's $49.33 million for second place,
the position where it will rest.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Shrek 2 is tracking 21% ahead* in Australia, although this is down on the 22% positive* margin from last weekend. It appears that the money-making honeymoon of Shrek 2 has worn off in Australia, as the sixth weekend was only 3% better* in Australia than its comparative U.S. sixth weekend. This is down from what has been consistent 50% + better* weekends over the last few weeks. The top 20 films collected $12.07 million over the weekend, down 12.2% from last weekend but up 55.5% from this weekend last year when the top 20 was lead again by Terminator 3: Rise of The Machines in its second weekend with $3.10 million, off 58%. The weekend was also up 43.9% on this weekend from two years ago when a slow frame was led by the $1.11 million opening of The Sweetest Thing. Weekend Coming 29th July - 1st August 2004
How big will Fahrenheit 9/11 be this weekend? The Michael Moore directed documentary has already been breaking all
kinds of records for its category, and the film hasn't even officially opened yet. Distributed by Hopscotch - quite the
pick up for a distributor that usually handles films of a more reserved box office nature - Fahrenheit 9/11 examines
the questionable conduct of the Bush administration and George W. himself. From a simple Texan entrepreneur, to governor of
the state, to the 2000 election, 9/11 and the Iraq war all get the fine tooth treatment. Fahrenheit 9/11 is Moore's
most publicized and recognizable production to date - a follow up to his successful Bowling For Columbine that
helped put him on the map with the mainstream public. As a documentary, Fahrenheit 9/11 has benefited from a degree
of press coverage that's usually reserved for the likes of the next Spider-Man or Shrek sequel - perhaps
more so.
Fahrenheit 9/11 caused all sorts of waves upon its release in the U.S. Apart from the expected flurry of controversy its political persuasion caused, it also flattened box office records in the U.S. Opening against White Chicks and the second frame of Dodgeball, Fahrenheit 9/11 scored a number one bow with $US23.92 million, a good $US4 million clear of the Wyans Brothers comedy. That opening weekend was enough to rank Fahrenheit 9/11 as the highest grossing documentary of all-time, let alone the highest opening weekend. It knocked off the $US21.57 million that Moore's own Bowling For Columbine collected in 2002. After a huge opening, Fahrenheit 9/11 has also gone on to show some very consistent holding power, falling between 30% and 35% each weekend. With $US103.1 million in the bank after four weeks, Fahrenheit 9/11 will be turning a handsome profit once its $US6 million production budget and $US15 million in advertising costs are paid for. Last weekend, the film that has broken all available records for a documentary in the U.S. collected $0.72 million from its previews on 68 screens. That alone was enough to surpass the $0.56 million opening weekend record for a documentary that was held by 2003's The Real Cancun. It also healthily beat out the recent the $353K of the other controversial documentary playing at the moment, Super Size Me and Moore's Bowling For Columbine launch of $291K. That film also had two weeks of previews, though they together netted a less impressive $190K. Although it had a much slower start that what Fahrenheit 9/11 will this weekend, Columbine still managed a great $4.85 million final total through some impressive holding power. Knowing that they were on to a good thing, Hopscotch and it's large collection of art house exhibitors added a further 21 screens to bring Fahrenheit 9/11's preview footing up to 89 in an attempt to meet a growing demand. There seems to be a truly feverish amount of anticipation for Fahrenheit 9/11, and it showed last weekend with takings zooming up 50% to $1.13 million, and a screen average up from $10,639 to $12,744. With $1.92 million already in the bank, and with the film also benefiting from further previews through mid-week, Fahrenheit 9/11 will have a formidable war-chest going into this weekend's offical opening frame. All seems to be going well for the film, but will Fahrenheit 9/11's opening weekend figure be hampered by its own successes in previews? Knowing that previews are designed to build word of mouth and buzz going into wide release, Fahrenheit 9/11 arguably has all the buzz and awareness it needs without previews. Back in 2002, another surprise hit, My Big Fat Greek Wedding coined $1.38 million in previews before its $3.35 million opening. Although we're not looking for similar figures from Fahrenheit 9/11, it goes to show that previews can help a film rather than hinder it even if those previews are exceptionally large. Competition for I, Robot is strong with the onset of Riddick, so depending on its fall this weekend, Fahrenheit 9/11 could launch anywhere from third to first with a strong $2.5 million. 
The Chronicles of Riddick will be doing its best this weekend to oversee another sci-fi top spot bow, but it will
have plenty of competition from a strong holdover and certain rabid documentary with potential to cause a disturbance
in the top end of the charts. Starring Vin Diesel, The Chronicles of Riddick is a follow up to 2000's successful
yet small sci-fi production Pitch Black. Again directed by David Twohy (The Arrival, Below),
Riddick is set several years after the events of Pitch Black. With a bounty on his head, Riddick is forced
from hiding after one of the survivors from Black is forced through concern of his family and his world to give away
his location. It seems that as a Furian, Riddick has the potential to stop the Necromongers, a race spreading through the
galaxy and consuming worlds in the process.
As an expensive sci-fi project without a solid base to begin with, Universal were very worried about how their $US105 million gamble would pan out. Starting of with such a clunky name was a sign of things to come. Opening in the U.S. in mid-June with $US24.28 million, the second placed The Chronicles of Riddick was the best of the three new openers, initially outsmarting The Stepford Wives and Garfield: The Movie. But with a 61% second weekend fall, and not much better happening after that, both its opening weekend foes have since improved on Riddick's close to final $US56.8 million. For Diesel, The Chronicles of Riddick is an improvement on his soft A Man Apart and Knockaround Guys performances which gathered $US26.7 and $US11.7 million respectively. But it's less than half of what his other 'blockbuster' roles have done. Successes in xXx ($US142.1 million) and The Fast and The Furious ($US144.5 million) are now just a memory as he tries to sort out where his career is heading. Giving up on franchises which had profitable runs may not have been his best move. As a doofus with a heart of gold, Diesel has built a name for himself, but is The Chronicles of Riddick something that will do well in Australia? His last 'big' big-screen adventure was with 2002's xXx, which opened with a decent $3.19 million even if it was 28% lower* than the U.S. launch. Holding power was actually a little better in Australia than it was in the U.S., with its $10.83 million final coming in 24% below* the U.S. final total. His success here and in The Fast and The Furious only has a limited benefit for The Chronicles of Riddick - if any - and the soft performance of 2000's Pitch Black has less. The Rhada Mitchell starring thriller opened with $1.05 million and finished with $2.94 million. The Chronicles of Riddick will have to perform well to beat out the second weekend of the well-received I, Robot, but it should be able to collect $2.2 million this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |