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Weekend 22nd - 25th May 2003
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Reigning easily in the top position in its second weekend, The Matrix Reloaded managed to buck the U.S. precedent
of an almost embarrassingly disastrous fall and come out with impressive second weekend figures. Losing just 46% of its
audience, the effort was quite strong considering the extremely front loaded nature of the film, with rabid fans rushing
out to see it as soon as they could during its opening weekend, and with a word of mouth that hasn't been as feverish as
hoped. Adding two screens over the weekend, The Matrix Reloaded collected a huge second weekend of $6.01 million
which counts as the third largest non-holiday second frame of all time in Australia behind only Clones and The
Two Towers, which indecently still holds the record for the largest non-holiday weekend. With a launch last weekend
counting as the third largest of all time, coined with that amazing one day handicap against the competition, the dip
of 46%, while it could be considered very low, looks brighter against the 56% second weekend dip of TTT because
that was coming off a four day first weekend. There is no doubt still an audience that wants to see the film, but had it
been coming off a four day first weekend, the second weekend take may have even been lower than $6 million, with a much
higher second weekend drop a result.
Compared to other films of its class, last weekend The Matrix Reloaded opened 21.4% lower than TTT and now
still stands a very similar 20.4% behind. There no doubting the strength of The Matrix Reloaded second weekend in
enabling it for now to stick it with TTT in pace. Although it will drop away sharply in the few weeks ahead, its
3-Day mid week take of $3.46 million is very good considering its non-holiday placement. In comparison TTT collected
$5.5 million through its 3-Day period and Clones collected $2.72 million. As a comparison to Clones, of
which The Matrix Reloaded opened 7.4% behind, it is now tracking just 1.3% behind. Reloaded has a good chance
to be able to overtake Clones' pace since the Jedi had the Web-slinger to contend with after week three whereas
Reloaded's only real threat for the top spot in its first five weeks is 2 Fast 2 Furious next week, and it
will be a close race.
In Australia The Matrix Reloaded was easily able to retain its crown and perform with such strong second weekend
figures undoubtedly because it didn't have much in the way of significant new competition. It was a different story in the
U.S. however with Bruce Almighty rendering Neo near incapacitated. Such was the surprise of the strength of Jim and
his comedy comeback and the weakness of Reloaded's second frame that financer Village Roadshow lost 5% of its
market value. Compared to the U.S. pace after two weeks, The Matrix Reloaded is now tracking just 1.8% behind the
current cumes in the U.S.. Now, that is comparing it to the U.S. holiday take after weekend two, whereas Reloaded
would actually stand 2.4% ahead if we compared the usual 3 day vs. 4 days weekend pattern. Either way you look at it, it
is a huge improvement on last weekend when a U.S. advantage meant Australia's first weekend close stood 17.3% behind.
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Opening in second place was the Colin Farrell thriller Phone Booth. Directed by Joel Schumacher, the film follows
Stu, a guy who has been dishonest to both his wife and girlfriend. The trouble is, someone is on his case over his
immorality and in order to get Stu to confess, he holds him hostage inside a phone booth through the sights of a rifle.
Collecting $1.33 million, Phone Booth opened on a medium release of 177 screens for a good average of $7,549, which
as with its opening weekend figure is quite standard.
The opening for Phone Booth is similar to the last flick we saw Farrell appear in on screen, February's The
Recruit. Compared to that film, Phone Booth was able to open a fine 15.8% better, this could both signify and
increased appeal from its star, or maybe even that the audience just felt Phone Booth was the better film and
worth supporting. It is notable that this was simply a Farrell star flick, and not one of his usual co-starring flicks.
The Recruit was able to wind up with a so-so $3.82 million. Phone Booth may be able to achieve a little
better holding power, if so it may reach the levels of last years Insomnia which opened with $1.47 million on its
way to a $5.4 million final. At the moment it stands 9.5% behind.
Compared to the U.S. opening, Phone Booth is currently tracking 9.8% behind* in Australian on what the film had
after its first weekend in the U.S. The U.S. launch was again nothing special, but for Farrell the opening represented
an improvement over The Recruit which opened 30.9% behind* the U.S. pace. Phone Booth displayed only
moderate holding power in the U.S., and if Phone Booth were to follow the same trajectory it would end up with
around $4.1 million. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Phone Booth was spot on with my $1.3 million
prediction.
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Whale Rider continues to show strength through its third weekend, down 26% for the second best hold in the top ten.
Holding on to third position despite the one new entry above it, the film about a young girl who must work hard to win the
approval of her grandfathers seemingly endless dissatisfaction of her destiny as the future leader of their tribe collected
$0.76 million, has increased its total to a fine $4.32 million, which has no doubt made its distributor BVI a happy camper
for choosing to take a punt on the film's release in Australia. Add this to the $NZ3 million Whale Rider collected
in N.Z. and an imminent U.S. run, and the $NZ6 million production will stand as worth while venture for its financers.
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Dropping from second to fourth in its fourth full weekend was the ensemble comic adaptation X-Men 2. The Hugh
Jackman and Halle Berry starring sequel about mutant kind’s continuing struggle with an oppressive human society scored its
best decline to date, but still a very large 44%. Taking $0.72 million, the Bryan Singer directed sequel has a running
cume of $14.6 million, but doesn't look to be able steady its weekly declines in any remarkable way. Because of this the
action sequel is certain to fall short of the $17.6 million of Men In Black II, but should be able to pass the
$15.9 million of 2001's Tomb Raider.
Compared to the U.S. pace, X-Men 2 is now tracking 23.9% behind* the comparative four weekend U.S. pace in
Australia, again losing some ground from the 21.8% difference last weekend. The fourth weekend take itself was down a
large* 45.5% on the long weekend fourth weekend U.S. take, and 31.3% down* on the three day totals. In 2000, X-Men
stood a more distant 32% behind* the U.S. pace after week four.
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How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days rounded out the top five with an $0.5 million weekend. Falling 40% through its fifth
weekend, the Matthew McConaughey and Kate Hudson dating by deception comedy now has a fine total of $9.91 million.
Despite recording a better hold than Sweet Home Alabama's 46% fifth weekend dip and its $0.35 million weekend,
its stronger holiday mid-week figures mean that How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days is now tracking a slim 0.4% behind
the Reese Witherspoon flick, down from the 0.05% lead it has last weekend. Also, How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days is
now tracking smaller 14% ahead* of the U.S. pace at the close of this weekend, down from the 18.1% better* margin last
weekend.
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The top 20 films collected $10.74 million over the weekend, down 33.6% from last weekend and up just 1.4% from this weekend
last year when the top 20 dipped by a very similar 32.2% as Attack of The Clones was creating a near carbon copy
precedent for Reloaded to follow. Leading with $6.16 million and off 48%, the top 20 was kept even by the $0.97
and $0.67 million openings of The Mothman Prophecies and Life As A House. The weekend was up 28.5% on this
weekend two years ago when the singing and dancing Moulin Rouge captured Australia with a hot $3.65 million opening
weekend to dislodge The Mummy Returns from the top spot.
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Weekend Coming 29th May - 1st June 2003
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As a surprise hit of the early season in the U.S., Old School finds its way to Australian screens this weekend and
hopes to rattle up some business in the comedy arena, and area that has been lacking in theatres since Johnny
English and Anger Management last month. Starring Will Ferrell, Luke Wilson and Vince Vaughn and directed by
Todd Phillips (Road Trip, Frat House), the film follows three middle aged guys who have become disenchanted
with their lives, so order to spice them up they try to re-live their college days.
As one of many surprise hits of 2003, Old School opened with a very sweet $US17.5 million and went on to score
very strong holding power. Having recouped its production budget of $US24 million back within two weeks, DreamWorks
would be very happy with its $US75 million running total, one of their few releases for the year so far. The best
comparison for Old School is other films of the same genre due to its low star power quotient. Phillips Road
Trip opened with $US15.5 million in 2000 and went on to earn a very similar $US68.5 million, reflecting a consistency
in his directorial success in this genre.
The comedy success of 2003 in the U.S. hasn't been correlating directly over to Australia to the dismay of some
distributors, Old School will be hoping to become more of a How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days rather than a
Bringing Down The House. If in Australia, Old School can replicate what Road Trip did then it will
be looking at some good figures. The Breckin Meyer and Seann William Scott starring gross out flick opened in Australia
with a good $1.77 million, earning a good $7.51 million. Ratio-wise Road Trip was a stronger performer in Australia
than in the U.S., but due to Old School's heavy college theme it may have trouble connecting directly to
Australian audiences to reach the same level or correlative success. Old School should be the better performer of
the two openers and collect around $1.2 million this weekend.
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Of the eight or so films to open this Thursday, the John Travolta flick Basic has an odd old chance for some
standard business, although any film will still have wait in the sidelines of Reloaded's third weekend. Also
featuring Connie Neilson and Sam Jackson, the John McTiernan (Die Hard, Predator) directed film goes down
familiar story territory for Travolta as he is this time assigned a DEA agent role assigned to investigate the
disappearance of a drill sergeant and a few of his cadets during an exercise gone wrong. The film has many similarity's to
1999's The Generals Daughter story wise, although it hasn't been able to match to punch of the film either critically
or commercially.
The Sony flick was released in the U.S. with an $US11.5 million opening weekend. Holding power for the flick was less than
favourable with end final total of just $US26.6 expected. While Travolta's films have been a mixed bad of successes over
the last decade, he has had a few hits. Basic was no doubt trying to re-create the formula that worked well for
General's Daughter, but its final total was only a few thousand more than Daughter's $US22.3 million
opening weekend. The final is down on other recent Travolta entries such as the $US14 million opening and $US46 million
final of 2001's Domestic Disturbance, but managed to outshine the $US11.5 million opening and $US21.5 million final
of Travolta's critical career high of Battlefield: Earth.
In Australia, aside from the Hugh Jackman inspired success of Swordfish, Travolta's movies have had far less impact
than in the U.S., especially with his military mystery themed fare. In fact, that genre is largely ignored by the
Australian movie going public with films such as Rule of Engagement and Men of Honor bombing, which does not
bode well for Basic in Australia. Travolta's General's Daughter did moderate business in Australia,
collecting $4.3 million, although that was still a huge 58.1% behind* the U.S. pace. If Basic follows that
trajectory it will only just budge $1 million all up. Basic will find it hard to grab a good chart position this
weekend amongst the current holdovers and open with $0.8 million.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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