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Weekend 27th - 30th March 2003
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Leading out the new films of the weekend was the locally produced film Ned Kelly. Based on the events of the
infamous outlawed bushranger and his gang, the film stars Heath Ledger as Ned, Orlando Bloom, Naomi Watts and Geoffrey Rush.
The Gregor Jordan directed film's liberties of actual historical events aside, the film follows Ned as one unlucky step
with the law after another builds up to his declaration by the state as an outlaw who can shot at any time. The film
certainly had its fair share of coverage leading up to release, perhaps even more so, as its opening weekend take of $2.61
million is somewhat under whelming for the saturation airplay of its stars' interviews and commercials. Deploying on a very
wide 352 screens, Ned Kelly's screen count easily stands at the widest release yet of 2003 surpassing the 308
screens of the J-Lo flick Maid In Manhattan. Because of this, Ned Kelly's screen average also takes the
rather shameful honor of having the lowest screen average for any film to open over $1 million so far this year with
just $7,289 per cell after only Manhattan's $7,289. This is also reflective of how much the general public's want
to see factor was over-estimated for the film.
So where will Ned Kelly go on from here now that it's launch has arguably come in under many expectations? Industry
observers and financers themselves have all to loudly been trumpeting that they expect, or at least hope that the film will
collect around $30 million in Australia in hopes that the film breaks even. The launch counts as the 89th largest of all
time in Australia, but as to whether it can reach that rank on the all time highest earners list, putting its final at
$15.8 million, means that its holding power will need to be good. As we have seen in the U.S., its been comedies and feel
good films that have done gangbuster's business at the box office, with more dramatic and serious films taking a back seat.
Ned Kelly faces its share of competition this weekend with two new wide releases hoping to do well, and a flood
of films through the two weeks after will try to muscle their way into the Easter holiday market.
The opening for Ned Kelly comes in a few hundred thousand below the $2.99 million official opening weekend of
The Dish. The Rob Sitch locally produced film was viewed as a follow up to The Castle by many people, and
its pre-release publicity was also very high, even if its prospects were thought not as concrete as Ned Kelly's.
The Dish enjoyed a $1.26 million weekend of previews, and had totaled $4.28 million at the close of its first
official weekend. The radio scope themed comedy ended up with a final total of $17.9 million, and the holding power it
displayed was considered very good. It's unlikely given the level of competition that Ned Kelly has in the weeks
ahead, that it will replicate or better The Dish's holding power, as that film was released in 2000 with little
serious competition during its first three weeks, and even then it still held well. Compared to my opening weekend
forecast, Ned Kelly opened a cool million less than my $3.6 million prediction.
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In second place was the second weekend of the comic adaptation Daredevil. The Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner
starring flick was, as expected, off by a hefty 54% for a second weekend take of $1.48 million. The film about a man who
was blinded in an accident when he was young, and as a result receives increased acuteness for his other senses, most
notably that of sound has amassed an ok cume of $5.44 million in 11 days.
Last week Daredevil opened an ever so slightly 1.25% ahead of the first weekend take of last year's action
disaster xXx. For what is was worth, the Vin Diesel franchise hopeful performed well, dipping 50% in its second
weekend collecting $1.59 million. After the same 11 days, Daredevil is now tracking 6% behind xXx which
ended up with $10.8 million in the bank. Daredevil will continue to lose ground on the pace of xXx which
saw some good to great holds mixed in with its usual 50% declines.
Compared to the U.S. pace of Daredevil, the film is currently tracking 21.6% behind* after the comparative two
weeks, out slightly from the 19.6% lower* launch from last weekend. The second weekend itself was 17.7% lower* than the
second attempt in the U.S. where it dipped by a very similar 55.1% through that lap.
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Opening in third place was the Jet Li and DMX starring Joel Silver produced action clone Cradle 2 The Grave. The
film combining international weapons dealers, diamond thieves and intelligence agents with street thugs proved to be the
winning, or rather third place formula, opening with $1.07 million through the weekend. Opening on a medium 119 screens,
the film's screen average of $9,001 comfortably trumped that of Ned Kelly, and was the highest screen average in
release in the top 20. The opening of almost exactly $1 million wasn't a huge break out for the film, not that one was
expected, but solidifies the continuing appetite amongst action fans for this kind of entertainment.
Compared to Jet Li's last few films which have all performed to much of a muchness, as though the exact same group of people
keep coming back to see them, Cradle 2 The Grave's launch was 10.8% behind that of the $1.2 million of 2000's
Romeo Must Die. The opening was a more distant 17.7% behind the $1.3 million launch of 2001's Kiss of The
Dragon, and released in Australia in 2002, The One currently stands as Li's most successful film, having opened
with $1.55 million, leaving Cradle's launch 30.9% behind.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Cradle 2 The Grave's opening weekend in Australia comes in 35.1% behind* the good U.S.
No.1 opening the film achieved there. Previously Jet Li's other films such as The One opened 16% behind* the U.S.
in Australia, Kiss of The Dragon opened right on par* and Romeo Must Die opened 33.8% behind* in Australia.
It would needed to have been a good opening to finally reverse the trend of Li's films in Australia being unable to top
the U.S. performance, but it was never going to happen with a film like Cradle 2 The Grave. As far as final
totals go, Romeo Must Die finished 38.1% behind* the U.S. final, The One ended up ahead* by a mere 0.2%, so
pretty much right on par, and Kiss of The Dragon finalized 8.1% behind*. Compared to my opening weekend forecast,
Cradle 2 The Grave opened right on par with my $1 million prediction.
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Thanks to the two new openers of the weekend, Chicago saw its chart position decline one spot despite its Oscar
success delivering it a handy 28% bump in ticket sales. Placing in fourth, its $0.75 million weekend was fuelled by its
six victory statues from its 13 nominations. Of these, its prestigious Best Picture award combined with what was arguably
the most media covered award before the ceremony because of her pregnancy, Catherine Zeta Jones' Best Supporting Actress
Oscar helped its influx of sales. After 10 weeks of release, Chicago now totals a dazzling $16.56 million to place
in position 79 on the all time earners list in Australia just behind 1998's Dr Dolittle.
Compared to 2000's Oscar favorite and eventual prominent winner American Beauty, Chicago is now tracking
2.9% ahead after the same amount of time, down from tracking 4% ahead last week. This is a result of the Spacey film
enjoying a great 56% post Oscar weekend boost to $0.85 million, leaving Chicago's 10th weekend 11.6% behind that
mark. Despite this dive in its advantage, Chicago should be able to meet or pass the $19 million final total of
Beauty.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Chicago is now tracking 14.4% ahead* of the U.S. pace in Australia after 10 weeks of
release here vs. 14 weeks in the U.S. This is down again slightly from the 15.6% lead it had last weekend from a weekend
in the U.S. that saw a 16.8% rise in tickets thanks to the Oscars.
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Dropping three places to fifth, but still hanging in the top ten was the J-Lo romantic comedy Maid In Manhattan. Off
a slim 29% in its fourth weekend, the story about a maid who goes through the Cinderella routine after meeting her version
of a prince collected $0.68 million over the weekend to up its cume to a good $7.82 million. The current cume for Maid
In Manhattan stands 13% better than Just Married's cume after four weeks, up from the 11% better cume it had
last weekend. Compared to the U.S. pace, Maid In Manhattan is tracking 2.5% ahead* of the U.S. pace, suffering
another large from the 20.1% lead* it has last weekend. This is the result of a 20.1% weaker* third weekend in Australia
that what it scored in the U.S.
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The top 20 films collected $8.88 million over the weekend, up 10.6% on last weekends take. The weekend was down 36% on this
weekend last year when Ice Age lead the field jumping 18% in its second weekend for a $3 million take and $6.2
million in two weeks. In second place, Oscar nods to A Beautiful Mind saw its take rise 15% to $1.9 million and
the Eddie Murphy mediocre performer Showtime launched in third with $1.58 million. The weekend was also down by
8.6% on this weekend from two years ago when the Sandra Bullock comedy Miss Congeniality ruled in its third weekend
with a cool $1.99 million and three new openers collected over one million in the top five.
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Weekend Coming 3rd - 6th March 2003
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Hoping to bring the same level of destruction to Australia as it has over the last amazing four weeks in the U.S. is the
Steven Martin comedy Bringing Down The House. Also starring Queen Latifah, the Adam Shankman (The Wedding
Planner, A Walk To Remember) directed film follows Peter, a lawyer who tries to find a good relationship
through a chat site after his wife leaves him. Believing he has found just that, he invites what turns out to be a
generously proportioned African-American chick on the run from the law to his house, as opposed to a well refined white
lawyer. For Disney, the film has been the surprise hit of the year creating a level of box office surprise that puts it
above last years Santa Clause 2, and even echoes the left-fielded My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Probably more
accurately the film reflects the surprise performance of Big Momma's House from 2000.
Opening four weeks ago, Bringing Down The House collected a superb $US31.1 million through its first weekend. It has
since experienced holding power than can only be described as insane. For a film who's reviews have been nothing short of
universally scathing, Bringing Down The House's declines have not even breached 30%. In fact, the declines themselves
have been declining, coming in at 29.1% in its second weekend, 26.5% in its third weekend and an off amazingly low 22.7% in
its fourth weekend despite three other new wide releases entering the top five. Having reigned supreme for three weeks on
top, Bringing Down The House only barely missed out on making it four weeks having totaled $US100.1 million so far,
becoming Steve Martin's first starring film to reach that mark. For Latifah, it's already her second, although Catherine
and Renee helped her reach that mark first time around with Chicago still going strong.
In Australia, Bringing Down The House stands a good chance of doing great business, although it will most likely end
up matching the ratio* of how Big Momma's House performed here when compared to the U.S. pace. The Martin Lawrence
comedy opened 38% behind* the U.S. pace and ended up 32% behind* in Australia. All up, Bringing Down The House will
end up much stronger in the U.S. than Big Momma's did, which will probably be reflected here as well. It was back
in 1999 with Bowfinger when Steve Martin was on our screens in any sort of successful commercial capacity when it
opened with a cool $1.9 million and ended up with a $6.68 million final. Bringing Down The House looks set to pass
that and the $7.98 million of Big Momma's. It's release was bumped up two weeks from April 17 thanks to the great
performance in the U.S., reflecting BVI's anticipation of a solid run here. Bringing Down The House will probably
knock Ned Kelly from the top position this weekend and collect around $2.1 million.
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Also opening is the Stephen King adaptation Dreamcatcher. Starring Morgan Freeman, the Lawrence Kadsan (The
Accidental Tourist, French Kiss) directed film follows the story of four friends who when they were young
shared an experience and gained special abilities in return. On a hunting trip years later the four friends re-unite, but
it's no too long before their trip is interrupted by an alien force and they must battle not only this new horror but a
military general who has his own malevolent intentions in mind. Over the past few decades, some of the better King
adaptations have been the made for TV mini-series', such as IT and The Stand. Dating from the 1976 film
Carrie and 1980's The Shining, the few commercially successful big screen conversions have been The Green
Mile, Pet Cemetery, Stand By Me and Misery.
Dreamcatcher opened in the U.S. a couple of weeks ago with an ok $US15 million. That would have been ok for what
is most likely an expensive picture, although budget information isn't available, but due to the steep second weekend
decline of 56%, its 10 day cume of $US25 million is very disappointing. Warner Bros. had been advertising the picture
for months, and its campaign wasn’t exactly small which indicates that their hope were much higher. The last Stephen King
big screen adaptation was 2001's Anthony Hopkins flick Hearts In Atlantis which opened with $US9 million and went
on to collect $US24.1 million. Before that is was 1999's The Green Mile which opened with $US18 million and
collected a more robust $US136.8 million thanks in large part to its Tom Hanks headline. Freeman is certainly
Dreamcatcher's highest profile actor, and although he has appeared in many a successful film, his name atop the
credits doesn't mean it's going to be a hit.
In Australia, thanks to its release date shift, adds for Dreamcatcher have been played in theatres for months. For
better or worse, everyone has seen the trailer at least 28 times. Unfortunately, just because its a Stephen King adaptation
it doesn't mean its assured any kind of commercial success, in fact, its almost the opposite with many people connecting
his name to TV quality product thanks to the overused "Stephen King's 'insert mini-series of choice here'". The film will
battle it out for second or third place this weekend and could launch with around $1.4 million.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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