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Weekend 27th February - 2nd March 2003
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Opening on top of the charts with a surprising amount of power was Jackass: The Movie. For a country who's potential
audience was largely unaware of the franchise, or at least only had a small following of fans before the movie's advertising
campaign, its $1.6 million opening weekend seems almost out of place. Managing to draw in more people than the other wide
release of the weekend, The Recruit, which even boasted plot, concept, stars and production values, Jackass: The
Movie averaged a hot $9,378 from its medium-wide 171 screens. The launch, although not huge when compared to some of
the other openers of the year so far, has managed to well outpace various star driven films such as I Spy and the
latest Star Trek flick, proving that if any film has the right flavour, it doesn't necessarily matter who's in it
or what its about.
The opening for Jackass: The Movie is similar to last year's cult comedy turned big screen adventure Ali G In Da
House. The Sacha Baron Cohen flick, which also had a limited following, managed to convince $1.57 million worth of
patrons through the door back in July, and went on to produce a $3.94 million final total. The shallow holding power of
Ali G will most likely be reflected by Jackass and a $4 million final would be more than adequate for the
film.
Compared to the U.S., the opening while still strong is down* on what was a very powerful U.S. launch by 29.5%. The film's
respectable and top place opening was a boom for Paramount's little $US5 million film, and its holding power was also
acceptable for its first few weeks for this type of film, off by an average 44%. As a comparison to Ali G, the film
is expected to depreciate quickly, more so than it did in the U.S., so that 29.5% deficit* should increase over the next few
weeks. Compared to my opening forecast, Jackass: The Movie was able to open a few notches ahead of my $1.3 million
prediction.
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Happily sitting in the top position last weekend, Just Married suffered the usual first anniversary blues and dipped
down to second place. The Ashton Kutcher and Brittany Murphy starring comedy about two newlyweds who take their honeymoon
in Europe and have trouble consummating their marriage was off by a moderately large 39% over the weekend for a take of $1.46
million. Not a bad second weekend by any account and it has allowed the two week total for Just Married, including
previews to reach a fine $5 million.
Last weekend, thanks to previews Just Married opened a healthy 34.2% ahead of Sweet Home Alabama but because
of the large second week decline, Just Married is now tracking 8.6% behind. This is mainly due to the good 22%
second weekend rise the Reese Witherspoon flick enjoyed over the Christmas break. Matching a $10 million plus final total
now looks to be clearly out of Just Married's league. Currently tracking 11.2% behind the pace of where Shallow
Hal was after two weeks, Just Married has held a little better going into its second weekend than did the Jack
Black comedy and may yet be able to reach a similar $9 million total.
Just Married is now tracking a hot 50.7% ahead* in Australia of where it was in the U.S. after two weeks. This is up
on the 35.7% lead it had after last weekend's opening, thanks to a second weekend take that was 23.3% better* in Australia
than in the U.S., although the film did dip by a slightly better 32% there. To give you another idea of the impressive pace
of the film in Australia, if you were to compare current cumes, Australia's two week cume vs. the U.S.' eight week cume,
Just Married would be tracking just 7.7% behind* in Australia.
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Opening in third place pver the weekend was the new Colin Farrell and Al Pacino CIA flick The Recruit. Opening
second fiddle to the more popular Jackass, the story about a CIA agent who gives an assignment to track down a mole
to a new up and coming recruit opened with $1.12 million over the weekend. Deploying on a medium-low 148 screens, the
film's average of $7,602 per theatre counts as the lowest average for a number one film for the year so far, and also the
lowest average for any new opener over $1 million. The debut marks the first opening weekend figure for Colin Farrell,
who before now had been comfortable in roles underneath a more bankable name, be it Affleck in Daredevil or Cruise
in Minority Report. For Pacino, the launch was a few notches weaker than the $1.47 million that greeted his Robin
Williams co-starring serial killer pic Insomnia.
The opening for The Recruit was certainly not as strong as it could have been, perhaps losing much of its potential
audience of teenage boys to Jackass. The opening of The Recruit was similar to an array of action films
that have been released over the last couple of years, each of which have performed very similar in the long run. 2001's
Exit Wounds opened with $1.13 million and a $3.4 million final, 2001's The Sixth Day opened with $1.27
million and collected a $3.7 million final, and this years I Spy opened with $1.24 million and has collected a
$3.9 million final. Looking at that precedent, The Recruit has been the lowest opener, so it looks set to finish
under $4 million unless it gathers some extra good holding power, but from lukewarm critical reviews, that may be hard
to do.
Compared to the U.S. performance, The Recruit opened 30.9% lower* in Australia than its comparative U.S. launch
for which it received a top spot berth. The film's holding power has been moderate in the U.S., suffering steep declines
one week and registering good holds the week after without too much consistency. Final Destination 2 will put a
further dent in its prime audience demo, so some steep falls for The Recruit in Australia may be on the cards also.
Compared to my opening weekend forecast, The Recruit wasn't able to match my lofty $1.8 million prediction.
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In fourth place was Oscar frontrunner Chicago. In its sixth weekend the Broadway hit turned big screen musical was
off 28% for the second best hold in the top ten. Collecting a further $1.06 million, the Catherine Zeta Jones and Renee
Zellweger starring flick has managed to raise its cume to a brilliant $12.43 million. Compared to the pace of American
Beauty, Chicago is now tracking 1.6% ahead of the Kevin Spacey film, ahead for the first time in its eight
weekend run. This is up from the 1.1% deficit it had last weekend thanks to a sixth weekend that was 18.3% better than the
comparative weekend that American Beauty managed three years ago. If this pace continues then Chicago not
only has a certain change of passing the $19 million final cume of Beauty, but reaching the golden $20 million mark.
Compared to the U.S. pace, after six weeks Chicago is tracking 18.5% ahead* of the U.S. pace in Australia when
looking at the current cumes from the past weekend. This however is a six week run in Australia vs. a ten weekend run in
the U.S. The current percentage lead is up from the 14.7% lead it had last weekend thanks to a weekend take that was 35%
better in Australia than in the U.S.
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In its second weekend, the other Oscar heavyweight in the Australian top five managed to hold the best decline in the top
ten. The Hours, starring Nicole Kidman, Julianne Moore and Meryl Streep was off only 27% from its strong debut last
weekend. This gives the 'banned in Malaysia' flick a handy $2.87 million in 11 days and is now poised well to take
advantage of its hopeful Oscar triumphs. After launching 75% better last weekend, The Hours in now tracking a
slimmer 29.7% ahead of Gosford Park after two weeks, mainly due to the English mystery scoring a fantastic second
weekend hold, dipping just 4% back in March of last year. Whether The Hours can capitalise on the Oscars will
determine if it can remain on track to equal the $8.2 million that Gosford Park made, but at the moment it doesn't
look as strong.
Compared to the U.S. pace, The Hours is now tracking just 12.9% behind* the U.S. pace in Australia when comparing
current cumes, two weeks of release in Australia vs. ten weeks in the U.S.. This is a large improvement on last weekends
55.3% deficit.
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The top 20 films collected $9.76 million over the weekend, down 4.7% on last weekend but up 16.9% on this weekend last
year when the seasonal Oscar fare was called into action with A Beautiful Mind. Previewing on top of the charts with
a fine $1.86 million, the Russell Crowe nominee bumped Black Hawk Down to second which collected $1.55 million in
its second weekend. The weekend was up 32.2% on this weekend two years ago when Russ was on top again with the $1.5 million
top spot opening of Proof Of Life.
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Weekend Coming 6th - 9th March 2003
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In what should be finally be top stop debut for a romantic comedy, Maid In Manhattan will be looking to do what
Two Weeks Notice and Sweet Home Alabama couldn't. Starring Jennifer Lopez and Ralph Fiennes, the basic story
of the film revolves around a maid who in a case of mistaken identity is assumed as a guest in the hotel by a senator to
be. Directed by Wayne Wang (Anywhere But Here), Maid In Manhattan is a modern take on the Cinderella story
that was released in the U.S. late last year to a good degree of commercial success, if not critical. The Sony film capped
off a fantastic year for Sony in which it collected over $1.5 billion at the American box office.
Maid In Manhattan opened in mid December last year to a very good $US18.7 million and went on to have reasonably
good holding power. Produced more a moderately high $US55 million, romantic comedies are usually cheap to produce and make
some good money with Maid In Manhattan going on to collect $US93.2 million very close to the end of its run. The
film opened a week before rival Two Weeks Notice which has now gone on to collect a very similar $US92.5 million.
Despite opening weaker, the Sandra Bullock film looked to have better holding power and was tipped to pass Maid In
Manhattan's take, but now it seems the J-Lo flick will end up a million or so the better. For the starring actress, the
performance of Maid In Manhattan is a fine improvement over her last flick Enough which opened with a good
$US17.2 million, but faded fast to end up with a $US39.2 million final. As her best performer to date, Maid In
Manhattan improves her clout in Hollywood after moderate successes with The Cell and The Wedding Planner,
with only Angel Eyes registering as a recent disappointment.
In Australia, J-Lo's draw has been decidedly less rosy than in the U.S. Her last flick Enough opened with a very
poor $0.38 million, going on to collect a barely alive $1 million. Angel Eyes was only half as good, opening with
just $0.15 million, proving that the J-Lo name itself is less worth than dirt in this country. However, coupled with a
concept that can be easily sold to audiences, a J-Lo film is capable of opening in the $1.14 million range, eg The
Cell or the $1.28 million of The Wedding Planner. Last weekend Maid In Manhattan previewed in seventh
place on the charts with a fine $0.61 million. Showing on a wide 200 screens, the flick averaged $3,088 per theatre and
combined with the previews from the week before, its total is $0.84 million going into its first official weekend. This
puts it on slightly even footing with Two Weeks Notice which scored $1.1 million mis-week heading into its first
weekend, although Maid will find it difficult to open with a similarly powerful $3.84 million. Look for the
romantic comedy to open strongly however, and on top, with a good $2 million.
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Also opening is the horror sequel Final Destination 2. As with every horror film that comes along and proves to be
mildly successful, there is always a sequel. The original Final Destination however was more than just mildly
successful, proving to be a surprise both commercially and even gaining some degree of praise from the scores of critics
who had been decrying the increasing trend of teen horror movies. As the only returning main cast member from the first
film, Ali Larter as familiarity to the film which is from first time director David Ellis. Also featuring A.J. Cook, the plot is fairly
similar to the first film. This time it’s a girl who receives visions of her impending death and is able to save the lives
of a few friends, but soon death comes back to claim those who have cheated it.
The film opened in the U.S. in January in second place to The Recruit with a fine $US16 million. The film has had
ok holding power through its five week run and now totals $US43 million. The opening weekend of Final Destination 2
was well up on the $US10 million that the original $US23 million film opened with, but due to its higher rate of
depreciation should come in $US10 million or so below Final Destination's $US53.3 million final.
In Australia, the original's performance wasn't as strong, opening with a soft $0.62 million, jumping slightly in its
second weekend thanks to a holiday weekend, but sinking fast and finishing with what can only be considered a disappointing
$2.78 million. The sequel has been receiving a good deal of promotion in Australia with the adverts focusing on all the
aspects that made the original popular with its fans, TV spots with snapshot accounts of the films individual characters
and their close calls try give the film some good familiarity. There hasn't been too much in the way of horror films this
year, going back to Ghost Ship and The Ring from late last year. Final Destination 2 should open with
more clout than the first entry and take home around $1 million this weekend.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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