Weekend 28th - 31st October 2004
If anyone thought that last weekend's strong opening from Shall We Dance was just a horrible anomaly on the box
office calendar, then they were all proven wrong through its second weekend as the Lopez, Gere and Sarandon starring
flick slid an effectively slim 18%. Stamping its authority on as the box office champion, it was the smallest decline in
the top 20 aside from the AFI winning Somersault which jumped 61% on the back of its good showing. Collecting $1.72
million, Shall We Dance's total has increased to a swell $4.75 million in 11 days with a good prospect to pass
through $10 million if it can continue its current great word of mouth.
Due to a similar opening last weekend Shall We Dance looked to have a future set to compare with the 2004 female skewing pics The Stepford Wives and Mona Lisa Smile. But it appears now that its larger than expected opening has materialized into combined good holding power to produce a two tiered bonafide hit for BVI, i.e., its not a frontloaded film and it's not suffering from an art house styled run where it takes 10 weeks to gather a cume that in the end is only moderately substantial. The Kidman flick was off 47% in its second weekend, while the Roberts flick was down 34%. Shall We Dance stands 19.3% and 7.8% ahead of them respectively after opening slightly behind each when counting all previews. Compared to Lopez's Maid In Manhattan, Shall We Dance is now tracking 12.3% behind, although that's a big jump from the 30.9% negative margin which included the Ralph Feinnes co-starrer's previews. Manhattan was a solid film in its own right, off only 32% in its second weekend and low declines for the first four weeks, so matching its $8.80 million is a good solid goal for Shall We Dance, but at this stage all signs point for something better. Compared to the U.S. pace, Shall We Dance is now tracking 95% ahead* in Australia. This a good improvement on the 82% positive opening from last weekend thanks to a second weekend frame that was 101% better* in Australia. Now even though the naysayers that were predicting another Lopez bomb were consequently proven wrong in the U.S. as the film dipped only 27% in its second frame, it was still inferior to the smaller Australian dip. A bigger opening usually means a bigger decline, and although its going strong in both countries, its Australian success is one of the year's a true abnormalities. 
Collateral teamed up with Shall We Dance yet again to score another one-two finish. It was a close call
though, as the Tom Cruise flick trumped The Manchurian Candidate by a mere $1,500. Collecting $1.00 million in
its third weekend, the Jamie Foxx co-starrer has raised its total to a fine $6.36 million.
Hitting $10 million is still a possibility for the film, although it does appear to be declining a little too high through the all important first four weeks, down 36% and 37% through weekends two and three. They are good declines for a film of this type though as the action genre usually suffers heavier declines, and three weekends over $1 million is certainly commendable. Compared to Dodgeball, Collateral is now tracking 4.3% behind the Vince Vaughn starrer, down from its 1.0% lead last weekend. Sub 30% declines through weeks three and four still weren't enough to get Dodgeball over $10 million, rounding out at about $9.7 million. Collateral will probably end up with about $9.2 million, just behind Interview With The Vampire's $9.52 million to become Tom Cruise's 11th best performance in Australia. Compared to the U.S. pace, Collateral is now running 9% behind* in Australia, down from last weekend's 7% negative margin. The third weekend frame though was barely different* from the U.S. third though, down just 1%. From weekend to weekend the film has performed like a metronome to the U.S. precedent, although mid-week sales have hurt the running margin. 
The only new film of the weekend to penetrate the top five was the Denzel Washington starring The Manchurian
Candidate. It was as expected though, its new competition didn't really have a leg to stand on as The Exorcist
prequel scored a relatively paltry $471K. Collecting $1.006 million, the film about a war hero from Iraq who begins to
doubt the events for which he is decorated even happened averaged an ok $5,160 per screen, second in the top 20 behind
only Shall We Dance.
The opening for The Manchurian Candidate was the 62nd best for the year so far, coming in alongside other recent openers like Open Water and Catwoman. This says a lot about the appeal of the film, one contained unrecognizable actors and sunk quickly, the other was a certifiable disaster six months before release. Obviously the massive amount of attention given to the U.S. election played little to no part in helping to generate interest in the film, as its opening on any given weekend could have easily generated more than what it gathered here if conditions were right. For Washington though, The Manchurian Candidate's opening was his eighth best and eighth to open over $1 million. It's behind the $1.18 million that his 2001 flick Remember The Titans opened with, and the fair holder ended up with $4.58 million. The rather warm drama had decent holding power that's probably out of Manchurian's reach, so a $4 million projection is on the optimistic side. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Manchurian Candidate's opening was 50% down* in Australia. Not out of the ordinary for a Washington film that commonly opens 50% to 70% behind* in Australia, it is down however on the 19% smaller opening that Man On Fire enjoyed in August. The well received action film though failed to convert into want to see for Manchurian, signifying that Washington isn't a name that will sell tickets, instead people will decide from film to film if they'll see the guy on screen. Political deception and corporate greed weren't sellers this time around. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, The Manchurian Candidate's opening weekend was half a million smaller than my $1.5 million prediction. 
No one should be surprise that The Notebook enjoyed another solid weekend in the top five. The Ryan Gosling starring
film was off another inspiring 22% in its third weekend for a great take of $0.66 million. While they aren't
Collateral sized figures, The Notebook's performance is somewhat more impressive given that its stars are
virtually unknowns and has seen some of the best holds of the year. So far The Notebook has a total of $3.70
million.
Last weekend The Notebook was tracking 3.9% ahead of Diane Lane's Under The Tuscan Sun, this weekend the margin is virtually unchanged with The Notebook's lead still as 3.8%. The Italian set romance was off 31% in its third weekend for $0.60 million. Down 28% in its fourth weekend means that The Notebook will be kept honest if it wants to match Tuscan's $6.04 million final total. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Notebook is now still standing 14% behind in the U.S., the same as last weekend. Unlike the last two weekend where the film has seen smaller* weekend takes, The Notebook's third frame was actually 1% better* in Australia. This means little, as we would still expect the current* margin to increase in the weeks ahead. The Notebook lived on much longer in the U.S. than can be sustained by Australian exhibitors. 
The blood-letting was smaller than expected for out fifth placed resident, the horror sequel Resident Evil 2:
Apocalypse was down 51%. The second highest decline in the top 10 could have been much higher given that its a sequel
and that as a film it's not too flash. Collecting $0.58 million, Resident Evil 2: Apocalypse's 11 day total is
$2.08 million.
Compared to May 2002's Resident Evil which collected $495K in its second weekend as was also down 51%, Resident Evil 2 stands 13.6% ahead. This is down from the 17.9% better opening, but I wouldn't be too concerned as the tiny takings Resident Evil 2 are coughing up means very little for distributor Columbia's bottom line come tax return time. Resident Evil's $2.71 million is still passable. Compared to the U.S. pace, Resident Evil 2 is now tracking a distant 44% behind* in Australia, a slight improvement on the 48% smaller* opening from last weekend. I wouldn't have expected Resident Evil 2's second weekend to have been affected by The Exorcist's opening as all trash usually gets taken out together. The top 20 films collected $7.46 million over the weekend, down 17.9% on last weekend but up 5.7% on this weekend from last year when the pack was led with a good hold by Intolerable Cruelty down just 23% for $1.48 million. The weekend was down 4.9% on this weekend from two years ago when My Big Fat Greek Wedding was down just 13% in its second full weekend with $2.91 million and a $9.75 million cume. Weekend Coming 4th - 7th November 2004 
Also opening is the Jet Li starring Hero. The Chinese made film follows the legend of an assassin who makes it
his life long purpose to train himself competently enough to be able to infiltrate a rival province and kill the king
who he sees as a barbarian constantly delving China's several states into war. Directed by Yimou Zhang, Hero is a
meandering story of betrayal, loyalty, different viewpoints on said betrayal and loyalty, Hero's main selling
points rely directly on Crouching Tiger style mystical acrobatics, as opposed to any competent storyline.
Opening in the U.S. back in late August, Hero's $US18.0 million was good enough for 1st place, and its second weekend of $US11.5 million did the same which put it in good stead to pass its $US31 million budget. Having collected $US53.5 million in nine weeks, Hero has done ok for itself, but fallen far short of Tiger's $US128 million that it certainly aspired to match. For Lee, it was a grasp at credibility after disposable efforts from 2002's Kiss of The Dragon, which netted $US13.3 million on opening and a $US36.8 million final, and The One, which opened with $US19.1 million and closed with $US43.9 million. Since his mainstream western introduction in Lethal Weapon 4, Li's films have been a fairly consistent lot in Australia. In 2000 Romeo Must Die opened with $1.19 million and finished with $3.59 million. 2002's Kiss of The Dragon opened better with $1.30 million and closed with $3.56 million. Opening better still with $1.55 million and closing with $4.40 million was The One. There certainly seems to be some appeal for the actor's movies, and tapping into the Tiger, Dragon theme isn't going to hurt Hero. The Michelle Yeoh flick collected a hot $11.14 million locally, so any attempt to re-channel the fascination that audiences had with ancient Chinese mytho-fu is worth a try. Hero should be able to score the better opening of the two with around $1.3 million this weekend. 
There's a battle between the two new openers of the weekend. The pleasantly performing thriller from Julianne Moore vs.
the banally repetitive epic from Jet Li. The Forgotten co-stars Anthony Edwards and was directed by Joseph Ruben
(Return To Paradise, Sleeping With The Enemy). Following a woman who's living the happy life, things begin
to change when her son disappears and it seems that her husband has erased all evidence that their son existed. Distraught,
things go from bad to worse when friends pretend to not know who she is and the husband she has known eventually does the
same.
The Forgotten opened in the U.S. in late September with a very sturdy $US21 million to top the charts. The Sony Revolution title did very well for itself, having collected $US65 million in six weeks and more than recouping its moderate $US42 million budget. For Julianne Moore The Forgotten handily passes the poor $US17.8 million that her Pearce Brosnan co-starring Laws of Attraction made in April and its her best since 2001's pre-sold sequel Hannibal made $US165 million. How strong will The Forgotten be in Australia though? It did better than Hero in the U.S., but competition at the time was far lower than what Hero fought. Thrillers can be an odd bunch in Australia too. Collateral is doing well, while The Manchurian Candidate flounders. Add in an aspect of the super natural and audiences will either embrace to an extent above the U.S. acceptance, such as The Others, or much less than i.e. The Ring. Julianne Moore is not a ticket seller either, August's Law of Attraction proves that. The Forgotten will still draw in an audience that should see a good deal of relative satisfaction after having been kicked in the nuts by The Exorcist prequel the weekend before. The Forgotten may open with $0.9 million this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |