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Weekend 29th May - 1st June 2003
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The Matrix Reloaded is enjoying a smooth ride on top in Australia, relishing the lack of competition as the film
gets ripped to shreds in the U.S. against fierce competition that its luke-warm word of mouth is unable to protect it
from. Again falling by 46% in its third weekend, the Keanu Reeves and Carrie-Anne Moss super-talky action flick downloaded
a fine $3.24 million to bring its current total to an impressive $25.26 million. Overtaking the $23 million final total of
1999's The Matrix during the weekend, the pace of The Matrix Reloaded has continued to defy the lax reception
it has been receiving, undoubtedly because of its current monopoly on the marketplace which resulted from its pre-release
hype scaring off other distributors from these subsequent weekends.
The free reign it has enjoyed reflects last years Attack of The Clones which benefited from three weeks of soft
competition before Spider-Man swung into action to move Clones to position two. The Matrix Reloaded
will probably see similar circumstances arise this weekend from 2 Fast 2 Furious, however the competition still
waon't be as fierce. But can The Matrix Reloaded replicate the relatively small 40% fourth weekend dip Clones
managed last year? After three weeks of release, The Matrix Reloaded is now tracking just 1.6% behind where
Clones was at this point in time last year, incidentally on the exact same weekend. This is out slightly however
from its 1.3% negative margin last weekend due to the third weekend of The Matrix Reloaded being 7% weaker than
the third weekend Clones.
Compared to the U.S. pace, The Matrix Reloaded is now running a great 8.5% ahead* of the U.S. pace, up from the
1.8% deficit last weekend and the 17.3% negative margin it had after its opening weekend. This huge turnaround is not
only due to a moderately great performance in Australia, but from an unusually weak performance in the U.S. Competition
has been brutal. Last weekend Bruce Almighty trounced Reloaded as it tumbled 59%. Its third weekend was no
better, with Nemo kicking Neo's ass back to the stone age, delivering a third weekend freefall of 58% to the
futuristic action piece and an embarrassing fourth placed third weekend finish. The third weekend in Australia comes in
a hugely healthy 106.7% better* than it did in the U.S., guaranteeing that the picture will follow The Matrix's
lead, and finish up with a final total well in front* of what it will eventually achieve in the U.S.
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Holding steady in second place was the Colin Farrell thriller Phone Booth. Directed by Joel Schumacher, the story
about a guy who is targeted by a gunman and forced to confess his bad deeds at gunpoint performed well over the weekend
dipping a slim 30% from its opening weekend. Collecting $0.93 million, Phone Booth has raised its two week total
to an ok $2.72 million. Filmed almost two years ago and with a delayed released because of the Washington sniper shootings,
Phone Booth was the picture that was supposed to launch Farrell's career, although it has now just become another
statistic of commercial mediocrity for the actor.
The Fox film is looking healthier than Farrell's March flick The Recruit, now tracking a solid 21.9% better, up from
an opening weekend that was a good 15.8% better. Phone Booth is set to easily pass the $3.82 million final total
of The Recruit. Ironically, Phone Booth looks to perform more like Jackass than The Recruit,
with Jackass being the film that opened head to head with The Recruit and easily performed better week after
week. Phone Booth is currently racking 6.3% behind the pace of where Jackass was after two weeks, and should
have enough steam to eventually match its $4.54 million final total.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Phone Booth is now tracking 2.7% ahead* of where the film was at this stage in its U.S.
release, a good turnaround from its 9.8% deficit from last weekend. Compared to the U.S. second weekend where Phone
Booth stumbled by a fairly large 49% considering its only moderate opening, Australia's second weekend comes in a very
good 22.1% better. However, Phone Booth had a very good third weekend hold in Australia, it will be interesting to
see if it can do the same in Australia against the new competition.
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Two new openers vied for their place in the charts over the weekend, and it was Old School who came out the stronger
performer. Starring Will Ferrell, Luke Wilson and Vince Vaughan, the film about three middle aged men who fo back to
college to try and re-capture the spirit of their binge drinking days opening on 178 ove the weekend for a so-so average
of $4,400 per keg party. Collecting $0.78 million, the launch is certainly nothing special, and probably a bit behind
expectations considering Will Ferrell’s constant TV and radio promotional spots before its release last week.
Although none of the three actors have ever helmed a film outright to any degree of commercial success, the launch betters
some recent flicks that have co-starred them, such as the $0.48 million opening of Vaughan's Psycho remake and the
$0.57 million of Domestic Disturbance. Will Ferrell's A Night at The Roxbury opened with just $0.16 million,
but Zoolander, for with which its success Ferrell can be credited little, did manage a comparatively great $1.27
million opening. Wilson's performances have almost all been bit parts in larger film, so comparison aren't really
appropriate in any case. The opening is very similar to last years The Guru, with opened with $0.73 million and
ended up with a final total of of just over $2 million. Holding power for that film was pretty average, and we can expect
a Bringing Down The House situation with Old School aswell, meaning that the film will fall much harder
here than it did in the U.S.
Compared to the U.S. opening, it seems Old School's subject material has trouble resonating in Australia, either
that or just no one cared. Starting out a distant 55.1% behind* the U.S. pace, Old School opening weekend in
Australia pails in comparison to what has been the second most surprising comedy hit if the year in the U.S. so far.
Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Old School came in a few notches below my optimistic $1.2 million
prediction.
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Going head to head with Old School was the John Travolta mystery Basic. Also starring Samuel L. Jackson,
the film about DEA agent Tom Hardy who's investigating the disappearance of a drill sergeant and several of his cadets
during an exercise gone wrong, managed to open with a very basic $0.75 million, less than $30,000 behind Old School.
Assigned to 156 theatres, Basic's average of $4,865 did manage to sneak past that of Old School's.
Films like this very rarely do well in Australia. Thrillers along the line of The Rules of Engagement, Men Of
Honour and Travolta's The General's Daughter and Domestic Disturbance never seem to do well on the
comparison scale* to the U.S. Compared to those recent and similarly theme Travolta thrillers, Basic opened some
28.7% weaker than Daughter but 31.5% better than Domestic Disturbance. Basic looks set to follow a
very similar trajectory of Men of Honor with an almost identical $0.75 million. Honor finalised with $2.56
million.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Basic opened 34% weaker* in Australia than it did in the U.S., although not unexpected
as these type of thrillers are made primarily with the U.S. in mind to make them at least half way profitable.
Unfortunately for the film, it also bombed in the U.S. Compared to my forecast, Basic was very close to my $0.8
million prediction.
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In a weekend of good holds, it was again Whale Rider that claimed the best hold in the top ten, and the second
best in the top 20. Swimming off with $0.61 million, the New Zealand native has now collected a total of $5.2 million.
Going into its first weekend of release in the U.S. this coming weekend, Whale Rider hopes to begin making the
serious international dollar, although with the weakness in the U.S., the production could make more in N.Z. than in the
U.S.
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The top 20 films collected $8.44 million over the weekend, down 21.3% from last weekend but up 4.1% on the weekend last
year when Attack of The Clones again rules in its third weekend with $3.48 million and Charlotte Gray and
The Hard Word opened with $0.92 and $0.82 million respectively. The weekend was up 6.6% on this weekend two years
ago when Moulin Rouge was off a scant 2% in its second weekend for a hot $3.58 million ahead of The Mummy
Returns' fourth weekend of $1.28 million.
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Weekend Coming 5th - 8th May 2003
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There's only one film opening this weekend that has a chance of dislodging Reloaded from the top spot, and in this
drag race all money is betting that the Nitrate fuelled 2 Fast 2 Furious will beat out Neo and Co. to the finish
line. Two years ago The Fast and The Furious stunned box office analysts with dashing number one entries in both the
U.S. and Australia. The surprise around the world of Furious disappeared quickly with the green-lighting of the
enviable sequel. The Diesel-less 2 Fast 2 Furious this time stars Paul Walker with Tyrese sharing top billing and
is directed by John Singleton (Shaft, Boyz N the Hood). Shifting drag strips from L.A. to Miami,
undercover cop Brian is now in league with his ex-con pal and is working to transport money that is in need of a clean.
2 Fast 2 Furious is playing a special card this time around and is heavy on the plot element, it seems Brian and pal
are actually working with an undercover agent to bring down the shady Carter Verone, for whom they are transporting this
dirty money.
Two years ago the Rob Cohen directed film opened with a huge $US40 million in the U.S., making back its entire production
budget of $US38 million in its first three days. For Universal, this gave them the second of what was to be three $US40
million plus openings, the first time a single studio as succeeded in that feat. The film's holding power wasn't that
great, however its huge initial success compensated for its large falls allowing a degree of success that was far above
any expectations before the films release. With a final total of $US144.5 million, The Fast and The Furious
ranked as the 14th most successful film for 2001 and currently ranks in position number 116 on the all time chart.
Internationally, but with Australia as an exception, the film didn't perform so well, earning less than half of what it
made in the U.S. with a final total of just $US62 million.
Australia was overtaken by a week of Fast and Furious power in September 2001. For Paul Walker and Vin Diesel
alike the film was their best entry to date. The $10.24 million final easily bested the $2.84 million final of Diesel's
Pitch Black and the $4.26 million of She's All That. Diesel has gone on to crack the market with his own
action franchise, leaving Walker to claim the Furious films as his legacy. 2 Fast 2 Furious is released
again a day ahead of the U.S. release, citing the great performance of the original's pace in this market as the reason
we have been granted this honour. It's with confidence that UIP release this film, and that's backed up by what has been
a great advertising campaign. Although trailers hint that the film is at best nothing more than clone of the first film,
the appeal drawn from the action formula rehash of first will be a winner this weekend. The scent of burning rubber will
be in the air this weekend as rev-heads from Croydon to Keilor will be flooding the Eastland and Sunshine Megaplex’s to
get their fill of smash and crash. Maroondah Highway and the Calder Freeway will be the places to be afterwards as the
Fast and Furious crowd will be wanting to prove they're just as versed in being idiots with their cars as Walker
and Co. 2 Fast 2 Furious will be too difficult to pass up this weekend and should open with around $4.5 million
this weekend.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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