Weekend 30th December 2004 - 2nd January 2005
Meet The Fockers was the clear favourite for moviegoers over the entire festive period, with the Ben Stiller
starring comedy sequel generating huge numbers over Boxing Day and staying strong through the New Year break. There was
plenty of competition around from new films and holdovers, most notably from The Incredibles which has been close
by ever since opening, but Meet The Fockers has so far proven to have the formula to bring in audiences in this
first Lord of The Rings-less January in three years.
Doing a quick rewind to last weekend where Meet The Fockers opened on Sunday, Boxing Day, with a great $2.61 million, or $0.6 million clear of the next competitor. Officially a single day of sales, all Boxing Day openers were sneaked around the country on Christmas day, taking advantage of trade laws that have seen theatres forced closed on previous Christmas days. It was a figure good enough for number one, and heralded the beginning of a three day long weekend take of $7.15 million, counting in the Monday and Tuesday Christmas and Boxing Day belated holidays. Boxing Day Sunday this year didn't appear any more special to movie goers this year than the next two holiday days, which combined, saw Meet The Fockers devour an additional $4.54 million. In opening day terms, Meet The Fockers' stands as the 7th best of all time, just behind the $2.61 million of The Phantom Menace. Among Boxing Day openers, Fockers ranks as the fourth best to date, behind the three Rings pics. Moving on to this weekend, a full four-day weekend frame. Meet The Fockers was again the number one choice with a huge $5.34 million second weekend. Up 104% from last weekend, or roughly double what it made last weekend in one day, the comparison doesn't say much in real terms, being compared against just that one day of receipts from last weekend. Counting in the belated New Years day holiday, the five-day long weekend figure of $6.77 million raises Meet The Fockers' cume to a sensational $15.54 million in nine days of play. Meet The Fockers opened in 2004 on the same day, Boxing Day, that the original Meet The Parents bowed on back in 2000. Because of the abstract weekend in 2004, the number of workable comparisons decreases. The best one available is the opening day comparison. Fockers' launch comes in roughly double the $1.23 million that Parents collected on day one, with that film's $4.19 million four-day first weekend less than half of Fockers' first day. Without taking away from what was a powerful opening back in 2000, Fockers' first eight days of $14.11 million is again roughly double what the $7.26 million that Parents made in its first seven days. Meet The Parents' final total of $21.22 million still stands as Ben Stiller's biggest hit in Australia, and with Fockers already at number three behind There's Something About Mary, it's guaranteed that January will make sure Fockers becomes his new high water mark. Compared to the U.S. pace, Meet The Fockers is tracking a soft 13% down* in Australia after the conclusion of the second weekend. Because Fockers enjoyed a full weekend frame in the U.S. from its December 24th release, a first weekend frame comparison isn't available, that point highlights that that 13% margin* is made with two more days of the play in the U.S. than in Australia. The second weekend frame - full in both countries - was a handy 28% better* in Australia than in the U.S. Back in 2001, Meet The Parents was tracking a huge 104% better* after the second weekend in Australia. That margin eventually reduced* to 28% in the end, but still well ahead. Fockers has generated massive opening strength in both countries and will stand proudly on each territories 2004 list, but in which country does the more prosperous road lay? The huge weekends before have the best chance to be sustained in Australia due simply to the January school holidays. Both countries though have the benefit of a long weekend holiday, Australia Day locally and Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Compared to my Boxing Day opening forecast from two weeks ago, Fockers' first day was spot on with my $2.6 million prediction, although Fockers did one better as that was a second place predication. 
It has been drawing some good money of its own over the last two weeks, BVI's The Incredibles hasn't been too far
behind the market leader, landing in second position both weekends. Also opening on Boxing Day, The Incredibles'
one day take of $1.91 million stands as the 11th best opening day of all time in Australia, and the fifth best
Boxing Day opener. Collecting $5.93 million through its first three days, Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday, The Incredibles' total was at $6.01 million including non-Christmas Day sneaks.
Fast forwards to its second weekend, and The Incredibles enjoyed a bumper boost of 134% when compared to its Boxing Day take. The second largest increase in the charts behind only fellow Boxing Day opener and French Oscar contender A Very Long Engagement, the second weekend take of $4.49 million, and a five-day long weekend take of $5.63 million has seen The Incredibles' nine day total zoom to $13.21 million. As far as Pixar flicks go, The Incredibles stands some distance behind 2003's massively successful Finding Nemo, finding more in common with Monsters, Inc. than just a Boxing Day release date. Monsters enjoyed $1.65 million in previews before Boxing Day arrived, which counted in gave the John Goodman voiced picture $2.68 million after its first official day. Going on to collect $3.73 million in its opening weekend, Monsters, Inc. had $6.73 million in the bank after the first weekend, with Incredibles standing 10.6% behind. On to weekend two, and The Incredibles' weekend stands 38.5% better than Monsters' second frame of $3.24 million. In total terms, The Incredibles stands 2.5% behind Monsters, though that's with nine days of play for The Incredibles vs. 12 days of play for Monsters. Counting on the Monday holiday, and The Incredibles stands 6.7% ahead. The second weekend frame for The Incredibles stands as the 16th best Second Weekend of all time in Australia, behind the $4.59 million second weekend of last year's Spider-Man 2, and it some distance behind the $5.98 million second frame of studio leader Finding Nemo. At present, The Incredibles' nine day total seats it in position 11 on the list of all-CGI films. With the $20 million mark its next milestone, The Incredibles is looking to enter the top five with Monsters, Inc.'s $25.62 the first real challenge. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Incredibles is tracking 16% behind* in Australia after two weeks, with the second weekend frame itself coming in 11% down* on the U.S. second. Back in 2001, Monsters was tracking just 1% ahead* in Australia after the second weekend, with that margin remaining constant at final totals. Compared to my Boxing Day prediction, The Incredibles' debut was somewhat lower than my $3.5 million opening day prediction. 
The third best performer in the charts for the second straight weekend was the vampire sequel Blade Trinity. The
Wesley Snipes starring adventure in which Whistler apparently finally dies opened on Boxing Day last weekend with a very
suckable $1.04 million first day. Adding on the belated Monday and Tuesday long weekend figures, Blade Trinity had
$2.50 million in its pocket in its first three days, which was very similar to what Blade II opened with in 2002.
Through weekend two, Blade Trinity wasn't quite as triumphant, although officially its second weekend was up 5% on last weekend, it's single opening day of play. Collecting $1.21 million through weekend two, Blade Trinity's nine day cume is $4.10 million. On a travelling basis, that's 26.6% ahead of where Blade was after two weeks, but 6.2% behind where Blade II was after the same period. That flick saw implosions of 61% and 50% through weekend's two and three, something that up until now Trinity has been able to stave off, although even January might not be able to prevent a nasty fall in weekend three for Blade Trinity. Compared to the U.S. pace, Blade Trinity is tracking 15% ahead* in Australia, with the second weekend frame standing a mighty proud 78% better* in Australia thanks to the New Year boost. The second weekend saw a huge 58% fall in the U.S. thanks to an uneventful slot and poor word of mouth. The film's final gross will end up a good portion weaker in the U.S. than the first two films, although in Australia is has a good chance of passing Blade II's series besting $6.28 million. Compared to my opening Boxing Day forecast, Blade Trinity's opening was spot on with my $1.1 million prediction. 
In its fourth weekend of release was the heavily promoted sequel Ocean's Twelve. The follow up to 2002's $22.2
million smash thankfully saw some stabilization after what had become a rather worrying first three weeks of depreciation.
However artificial it may be due to of the date, its 25% fourth weekend rise was a good change from last weekend's 62%
crumble and its second weekend depreciation of 50%. Why it sunk so severely last weekend is rather surprising given that
it was even with Snicket as the top choice before Boxing Day. Still, raking in $1.11 million through its fourth
weekend has seen the total rise to $13.05 million.
Honestly, the four week total is a little bland, given that Ocean's Eleven had amassed a smashing $18.05 million through the same period, in arguably slightly less fertile conditions than Ocean's Twelve has had. It's been expected however, from the less than glowing critical reviews to the below par opening weekend, the signals have been around that Twelve was never going to match the original despite a Christmas and New Years frame that rewards even the most average of films. Compared to the U.S. pace, Ocean's Twelve is now tracking 22% ahead* in Australia, down on last weekend's 23% advantage* and the second weekend's 27% lead*. Scoring a fourth weekend New Year up tick of 9% in the U.S., the fourth frame stands 25% better* in Australia. For history's sake, Eleven finished 21% better* in Australia, so current margins are looking on pace again. 
The Phantom of The Opera did better in rankings terms through its second weekend, landing in fifth position, up
from the seventh placed Boxing Day haul of $0.52 million. The Emmy Rossum and Gerard Butler starring adaptation of the
stage play and book had $1.36 million to its name after the post-Boxing Day long weekend. The UIP/Universal release has
been battling a luke-warm reception since, climbing 96% through weekend two to $1.03 million. Counting in the second
weekend long weekend figure of $1.31 million, The Phantom of The Opera's nine day total stands at a rather limp
$2.96 million.
Unlike in the U.S. where a rather average two week total could be blamed on the limited-wide screen count the film has had to sell its name on, in Australia there's no such easy way out. Released on a medium wide 235 screens, or 75 more than what Chicago was released on, Phantom's second weekend average of $4,393 isn't that flash. Where Opera goes from here doesn't really depend on the Oscars anymore, the film appears to be out of contention for the major categories. After two weeks its looking similar to the $3.04 million that 2004's Oscar hopeful turned black cat Big Fish had. That film turned out to be a disappointment with Australian audiences and finalized with $4.85 million. By all measures, if The Phantom of The Opera falls by those standards it'd be a huge disappointment again. It will be hoping January is kind, but spare dollars for this film may be hard to find in the weeks ahead. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Phantom of The Opera is tracking 66% ahead* after two weeks, with a second weekend frame that was 117% better*. That current margin is inflated by the saturation release in Australia versus a release that's set to expand in the U.S. mid-January. The film will be a spike in sales in the U.S. then that won't be reflected in Australia. Compared to my opening day Boxing Day forecast, The Phantom of The Opera's first day was again, right on par with my $0.5 million prediction. The top 20 films collected a huge $16.97 million over the regular four day frame, although that was down 24.7% from last year when Return of The King commanded $7.68 million ahead of Spy Kids 3D's $2.90 million second placed bow. If you were to count in the long weekend, the weekend saw $21.77 million in sales, still behind the $22.56 million from last year. The regular frame was 13.5% down on this weekend from two years ago, when The Two Towers again inflated figures with a $6.22 million second weekend, while Sandra stirred things up in second with a $3.84 million bow from Two Weeks Notice. Weekend Coming 6th - 9th January 2005 
A addition of three extra choices in the marketplace this weekend will help with a couple of large drops in the current
field, but overall it'll be another bumper January weekend, as this same upcoming weekend from last year made just as much
as this past weekend. Ladder 49, stars John Travolta and Joaquin Phoenix and was directed by Jay Russell (Tuck
Everlasting). The film follows successful firefighter Jack, who under the guidance of Captain Mike, has become one of
Baltimore’s best. However, Jack receives some much needed time to reflect on his deteriorating personal life when he
becomes trapped in a burning building, where he must wait until a frantic attempt by his Captain is organized to save
him.
Ladder 49 opened in the U.S. last October with a very fine $US22.1 million. The BV flick stayed strong through the month and ended up with a respectable $US73.9 million. The film's success with another in a healthy recent swag for Phoenix, which includes the $US114 million of The Village and the $US227 million of Signs. For Travolta, it's his best since the $US102.7 million of 1999's The General's Daughter, and closely resembles the $US69.8 million of 2001's Swordfish. The total for Ladder 49 also comes very close to the $US77.9 million of the 1991 firefighter themed Backdraft. In Australia, Ladder 49's best avenue to draw an audience lies with the action theme. For all the recent success Phoenix has had, no favours were earned in his name by The Village. Despite Travolta's recent seeming inability to score a hit, his Swordfish did do exceptional business in Australia. But what of Basic and Domestic Disturbance? Both were duds in Australia and arguably up Travolta's alley. Ladder 49 is a higher scale action flick with two recognizable names, so it holds more interest straight away. It's also the first action/drama since Collateral, although you could count National Treasure in that club. Looking back at 1991, The Kurt Russell flick opened with $0.88 million in August and finished with $5.89 million. Ladder 49 could open with $1.7 million this weekend. 
The move to the big screen for The Spongebob Squarepants Movie is the latest in Nickelodeon and Paramount's
patented strategy of milking successful children’s TV shows. Directed by Spongebob TV show creator Stephen
Hillenberg, The Spongebob Squarepants Movie follows Bob as he ventures out of Bikini Bottom with Patrick to find
King Neptune's crown in Shell City to save Mr. Krab. Yes, it does sound like a kids movie.
Despite the film sounding like it appeals only to mental capacities four years and under, the property's $US32.0 million opening shows that there's a large adult following aswell. The film is nearing the end of its theatrical life, and currently has $US82 million. It should finish very closely to the $US85.7 million that Pokemon: The First Movie made after it also bowed with $US31.0 million in November of 1999. For Nickelodeon, it's a slight improvement on the $US76.5 million of Rugrats In Paris and the $US80.9 million of Jimmy Neutron, but stands behind property besting The Rugrats Movie with $US100.5 million. In Australia, as with most Nickelodeon properties, most of them are relegated to cable stations and don't receive the same mainstream exposure that Rugrats enjoyed before they were taken off the ABC. Can Spongebob attract similar numbers to what Pokemon did in 1999, or preferably Rugrats? Both of those opened around the same mark of $2 million, though Pokemon made $7.55 million all up and Rugrats a huge $11.69 million. Spongebob will be doing very well if it can open with $2 million, but it may more accurately reflect Jimmy Neutron in the end. That opened with a soft $0.42 million and finished with $5.71 million. Noting the ferocity which Spy Kids 3D opened this time last year, Spongebob should be able to start off stronger than Jimmy with a possible $1.6 million launch this weekend. 
Also opening is the questionable Racing Stripes from Warner Bros., which for good reason is opening in Australia a
week ahead of the U.S. launch. With a huge list of Hollywood providing voiceover work for the comedy, the studio obviously
has some hopes for the film. Directed by Frederick Du Chau (The Quest For Camelot), Racing Stripes follows
the story of Stripes, a Zebra - voiced by Frankie Muniz - who grows up believing he's a racehorse. With the help of a few
local animals and a the young girl Channing, Stripes trains up to achive his dream of becoming a racehorse.
As mentioned, the film has yet to open in the U.S., and as with Shark Tale, won't for a full week after the Australian opening. This is smart move by WB, as the film will have an extra week of holiday play before kids go back to school in February, than if the film had opened day and date. Still, it's going up against Spongebob, for which a fanbase has already made it a first choice, and The Incredibles will probably remain the number one family pick. Blends of talking live action animals and real actors has worked well before, with Garfield, Cats and Dogs and the Doctor Dolittle movies all prime examples of over spending on a genre in Australia. Babe could arguably be the film that its creators are more purposefully trying to channel with Racing Stripes, though we probably won't see any similarities in box office numbers. Racing Stripes may open with $1.5 million this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |