Weekend: 24th - 27th August 2006
It was a new low over the weekend on many fronts. Newcomer Silent Hill was the
champion of the frame, but its figures tell the story of box office in a dreadful state. Collecting $0.74m through the
weekend, it was not only the lowest number one figure of the year - coming in under the $0.79m second weekend of March's
When A Stranger Calls - but it stands as the lowest number one I have on
record. To clarify, that is simply based on my records which go back to 1996, and granted, logic tells us that some point
in history there has been a lower number one, but at the moment I'm unable to pinpoint concisely which film it was and when
it happened.
With some years - like last year - not posting a single weekend with a number one film under $1m, they are actually quite rare occurrences, and usually only happen in the second weekends of previous soft openers. Examples of these include the second frames of Shanghai Noon, A Perfect Murder, The Butterfly Effect and the aforementioned Stranger, although some openers such as High Crimes, Ed TV and Two Hands have also accomplished the same level of mediocrity. But as lame as they all were, Silent Hill stands proudly as the new lowest number one, at least for the last 10 years. UIP/Universal's Silent Hill scored the 56th-best opening weekend for The Year so far, coming in just ahead of the $0.73m of Match Point and behind the $0.76m of May comedy The Benchwarmers. Amongst the year's other horror flicks, it was closest to the $0.82m of February's Hostel, which carved up $2.51m before it expired. The opening was almost a mirror of the $0.77m of last year's House of Wax, which congealed just below $2m. Compared to the U.S. pace, Silent Hill's launch was an impressively distant 63% smaller* in Australia, reflecting both a general disinterest in the material and a five-month release delay which many fans of the genre just won't stand for. That margin* is harsher than 58% of Hostel, the and the 36% of House of Wax, but wasn't as wrenching as the 72% smaller* of opening of April's poorly distributed The Hills Have Eyes. Compared to my opening weekend forecast, Silent Hill's $0.74m launch was 78% accurate to my $0.95m prediction. 
Last weekend's winner Snakes on a Plane took a slip to second position,
although the fall wasn't as harsh as it could have been were there actual new competent competition in the market. Down
42%, the Sam Jackson starring creature feature scared up $0.58m through the weekend for a $1.93m cume.
Barely a top five finish through a 'normal' weekend, Snakes can always lay claim to the prestigue of being a former number one flick. Compared to XXX²: The Next Level, Snakes is now tracking 10% behind after a 14% smaller opening. The Ice Cube starrer and Sam Jackson No.2 guy film was off 52% in its second. Compared to Anacondas, which was off 53% in its second, Snakes is tracking 5% ahead after a 5% smaller opening. If it's lucky it could end up with $3m, but around $2.8 looks likely. Compared to the U.S. pace, Snakes on a Plane is now tracking 27% behind* in Australia, an small uptick on the 33% weaker close of business after weekend one. Highlighted by the reasonable second weekend decline of 42%, the local second weekend frame was just 5% weaker* than the U.S.' second, which was off 55%. The flick suffered a 60% wallop in its third weekend in the U.S., while Snakes would be happy with anything under 50% through its third in Australia. 
While Dupree stands as August's finest and Miami Vice has done reasonable business in the face of adversity,
another story of success has emerged through one of the weakest box office trots in memory. The local production
Kenny, which might have been written of as the next Mr. Accident before release,
or perhaps worse, rose again in box office receipts and cleaned up $463k through the weekend. Up 15%, bettering the 11%
rise from last weekend, Kenny now has $1.64m in the bank.
Upping its screen count from 77 to 90 locations, Kenny's average barely changed, with its $5,143 through the weekend bettering the $4,729 opening average. There's only one explanation for growth like that, and it means people are enjoying this film despite a story which involves the film's lead working with all things sewage. With a track like this, Kenny will be looking to overtake the Cannes-fetching Ten Canoes at the box office, which now has $2.85m and will pass $3m despite coming to end of its season. Once it does that, can the current $4.4m of Jindabyne remain safe? As the leading Australian Film for 2006 so far, the Linney-Byrne flick is still grossing and will make it to $5m, but where will Kenny end up? Has its first three weeks been a fluke, or will it remain strong through the September holidays and become a real break out? The heavens know that Australia needs a home grown hit, despite the brow level of the subject. 
Thank You For Smoking again did fairly for itself in its second weekend.
Jumping one position to fourth, the Eckhart-Holmes flick saw the smallest decline in the top ten, aside of course from
Kenny's rise. Collecting $429k the film now has a propaganda budget of $1.43m.
The two-week total almost brings it into final gross territory of American Dreamz, which was off 57% for a cume of $1.17m. It ended with $1.62m. It's looking more like the reasonable performer A History of Violence, which had a similar $1.46m through two weeks. The Mortensen starrer collected $2.41m in Australia. 
You, Me and Dupree had another solid weekend, still without a weekend decline
over the 30% range. Off 33% and collecting $424k through the weekend, the Michael Douglas co-starring flick upped its
cume to $9.34m, breathing down the neck of $10m. New wide competition which'll be gunning for its screen count isn't too far
away, but Dupree has earned the right to make it there and has the respect needed to declare a gimmie for that mark.
Compared to the U.S. pace, You, Me and Dupree is now tracking 28% ahead*, up from last weekend's 23% lead, while the
sixth weekend was 322% better* in Australia.
The top 20 films collected $5.95m over the weekend, down 46% from Last Year when Charlie and The Chocolate Factory commanded more than this year's entire box office with a $6.99m opening, paving the way ahead of a lucrative school holiday run. The weekend was down 40% on this weekend from Two Years Ago when Shyamalan's The Village unseated The Bourne Supremacy with $3.11m while the Damon sequel managed a fair $2.58m in second. Weekend Coming: 7th - 10th September 2006 
One of the more scrutiny-heavy pictures of the last year opens in Australia this weekend in the form of the fantasy pic
Lady in The Water. Billed by writer and director M. Night Shyamalan as a fairytale he invented for his children,
the story follows a pool guy who rescues a narf who's stranded in this world by scrunts who want to keep her from returning
to the Blue World after delivering a message for mankind. Moving on from what is essentially a premise boasting a greater
level of retardation than Little Man, Lady in The Water stars Paul Giamatti and Bryce Dallas Howard as pool
guy and narf respectively.
Lady in The Water marks the first Shyamalan release not handled by BVI, who in an awful year for new partner Warner Bros., are wiping their brow for offloading this one. The $US70m film opened to a relatively poor $US18m - less than Signs' $US20.9m first day - in late July, sinking faster than most horror films and ending up with just $US41.9m. Its falls were actually rather spectacular in a fashion, 60%, 62%, 69% and 72% in the first five weeks, essentially meaning word of mouth got worse and worse every weekend it limped on. Although, exhibitors were happy to cut screens through that time as well. The final gross was less than half the $US95.0m of 1999's underperforming Unbreakable, while those same number were lower than the opening weekends of both The Village and Signs. Lady in The Water scored similar final number to The Hills Have Eyes despite a better opening but was a touch stronger than last year's fantasy The Brothers Grimm with $US37.9m. In Australia, Lady in The Water will probably more closely resemble the pace of the Gilliam fantasy outing than Aja's horror pic, which did unreasonably slow business in Australia. The Brothers Grimm did very well for itself late last year, opening with $1.15m. It crumbled as expected in weekend two, down 68%, but then saw some bizarre stability in weekend three, off just 12%. In all it closed play with $3.02m in Australia. For Shyamalan, Lady in The Water stands no chance of matching the performance of his previous work. Whether it be an audience scorned from The Village or that Lady just blows, or a combination, recreational dollars will be spent elsewhere this weekend. Lady in The Water may open with $1.2m this weekend, if it's lucky. 
Also opening is the romantic comedy revenge pic John Tucker Must Die. Directed by Betty Thomas (The Brady Bunch
Movie, Doctor Dolittle), the film stars Jesse Metcalf as the film's name sake, along with Brittany Shaw,
Ashanti, Sophie Bush and Arielle Kebbel amongst those out to kill the man. The plot brings three of John's ex girlfriends
together as they scheme to seek revenge in payment for his constant cheating.
John Tucker Must Die opened in the U.S., also in late July, with a fairly standard $US14.3m. It wasn't a super launch, but yet it was a highly profitable one for Fox, with the production budget coming in at a modest $US18m. Holding power for the film was unsurprisingly average, with Tucker going on to net $US40.1m close to the end of its run. It'll end up with $US42 million or so, similar number to The Lizzie Maguire Movie and Not Another Teen Movie and Blue Crush. The film enters the Australian market perhaps a week or two early to make good on the holidays, but it gets a head start on competitor Material Girls, although that's probably not needed. From the other angle, there's been little to appeal to the teen female market in some time, so Tucker should have a good shot this weekend, and even if it doesn't fully convert this weekend, the September school holidays will see it through until mid-October. The three films mentioned mid-paragraph all collected close to $5m in Australia after varied openings, with Blue Crush's $1.2m launch in the middle. John Tucker Must Die might not start that fast, with an $0.9m launch possible. * Based on a US index of 10/1 ($US/$AU) with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 1.27/1 (£/$AU) with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |