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Weekend 31st July - 3rd August 2003
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Enjoying one last journey on top of the charts, Terminator 3: Rise of The Machines made it three weeks in a row in the number one
position, joining The Matrix Reloaded as the only other film do to so this year. The third entry in the Terminator franchise,
which will now certainly not be the last with Schwarzenegger now out of the running for senator for California, collected $1.78 million
through its third weekend, upping its total to an ok $14.98 million. Falling by another steep 42%, Rise of The Machines' debut
was certainly impressive, however, due to its timing of release, weekly declines have been quite harsh. Opening with the power that it
did, the film should have easily been able to surmount the $15 million dollar mark by now, with quite a bit of change. Still, the Kristanna
Loken, Nick Stahl and Claire Danes co-starring actioner was able to pass its predecessor’s $14.64 million total on Sunday, and currently
sits in position 102 on the all time chart in Australia.
Last weekend we were waiting to see what the film would do in week three to know if the film had a chance of reaching the $20 million mark.
As it looks now, Rise of The Machines will almost certainly fall short of that mark, and will also fall further behind the pace
of Mission: Impossible II. Last week Rise of The Machines lost its lead to stand 5.6% behind. M:I2 dipped by 57% in
its third weekend, although that was down from a second weekend holiday allowing to film to capture a better $2.07 million through its
third. Standing 5.2% behind, Rise of The Machines will be unable to match unusually fine holding power M:I2 had from here
on in. Rise of The Machines will continue its steep falls and may finish in the league of Pearl Harbor's $18.77 million,
compared to which it now stands 11.6% ahead after three weeks.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Rise of The Machines is probably already at a stage in Australia* at which if it were to be taken as its
final total, would stand ahead* or equal to what the film will eventually finish with in the U.S. After three weeks of comparative play in
each country, Rise of The Machines is standing a healthy 17.1% ahead*, up from the 11.8% advantage* it had last weekend. This is a
result of a third weekend that was 91.7% better* in Australia than the comparative third in the U.S. where it fell by 52%.
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Two new openers landed in the top five this weekend, the brightest of them was the John Cusack thriller Identity. Enjoying a solid
second place launch with $1.3 million, the Ray Liotta and Amanda Peet co-starring flick follows a group of travellers that are stranded at
an old desert motel when the roads and phones are cut by flooding. Realising they each have a connection and that their numbers are wearing
thin, the stranded group must try to discover who is responsible for their situation. Opening on a medium-wide 175 screens, Identity
averaged an ok $7,476 per theatre, the best in the top 20. As the 28th best opener so far this year, the James Mangold directed film was
similar to the $1.29 million launch of the Robin Williams thriller One Hour Photo and the $1.31 million of the Rob Schneider comedy
The Hot Chick.
Thrillers in Australia tend to do perform with less muscle than they do in the U.S., although the comparable One Hour Photo was
an exception this year with the Robin Williams flick finishing up 20.3% better* than the final U.S. pace. With Identity opening
very similar to One Hour Photo and the film bound to reflect the good word of mouth it benefited from in the U.S., the John Cusack
flick has a good change of matching Photo's $3.8 million final. Next week will let us know if the film has a chance of reaching $4
million, a total that would place it behind the $5.34 million of Cusack's 2002 romance Serendipity, which opened with a similar
$1.2 million, although less holding power is expected for Identity given that thrillers usually decline faster than romance flicks.
Compared to the U.S. pace, Identity's opening comes in 19.3% behind* what the film took through its number one launch last April.
Going up against X2 in its second weekend in the U.S., Identity was off by 42% in its second and 31% in its third, and
although the holding power was good if not great, its quite decent opening weekend assured it of a good final total. If the film were to
go on and collect $4 million in Australia, it would end up 22% behind* what it eventually took in the U.S. Compared to my weekend forecast,
Identity's launch was very close to my $1.4 million opening prediction.
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Third place was occupied by the ever persuasive girls of Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle. McG directed 2 hour series of video clips
involving a whole heap of crazy stunts and dancing without any seeming cohesion between them enjoyed a slim 37% decline in its fifth
weekend collecting $0.57 million. Although careers haven't been damaged, the poor showing of the film in the U.S. has seen a baffling
reversal of fortunes in Australia, having amounted a hot $17.71 million so far.
Compared to the first film, Full Throttle was sitting just $1 million behind the final pace of Charlie's Angels at the close
of Sunday, and should be able to use its namesake to overtake it, at least by next weekend, although it wont be overtaking the original by
much. Compared to the U.S. pace, Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle is tracking an undeniably brilliant 90.3% ahead* of what it had
made at this point in time in the U.S., up just slightly again from the 89.3% lead* it had last weekend.
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The other new film in the top five this weekend was the comedy flick View From The Top, although anyone would have been forgiven
for not realising it was in release. The Gwyneth Paltrow flick about a small town woman who dreams of becoming a flight attendant scraped
into play on 108 screens with a fairly soft $0.51 million. Although the film had had its trailers shown in theatres regularly, other forms
of advertising were fairly sparse, a wise tactic from its distributor who saw little market for the film after its poor U.S. run. Also
heavily featuring Mike Myers in its trailer, the Bruno Barreto flick also co-starred Christina Applegate.
Averaging a soft $4,726 per theatre, the films debut is very similar to the $0.51 million launch of the Nicole Kidman dud Birthday
Girl. Both films featured a prominent actress in a role that wasn't exactly very exciting. Combine that with a complete lack in
confidence from its stars to promote the movie and a distributor who couldn't even care about making the money it spent on distribution
rights back, and you have an opening like the one we have seen from View From The Top. Birthday Girl finished with around
$1.55 million, View From The Top will be hoping for the same.
Compared to the U.S. opening, View From The Top's Australian launch was 27.1% lower* than what was also a very average opening in
the U.S. View From The Top also debuted in fourth place in the U.S. back in March when Bringing Down The House was putting
the country to shame with a third stay at number one. The film had little to no holding power back home either.
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The local flick Bad Eggs scored a good hold in its second weekend, down only 23%. The good decline isn't really surprising, despite
its lower than expected launch last weekend, Australian comedies usually score some degree a respectable holding power. Collecting $497K,
the Mick Molloy starring film has raised its total to $1.39 million. Good word of mouth for the flick is certainly welcome as the film
rushes to squeeze all the dough it can before the abysmal Take Away overloads the same target audience with more off key
interpretations of what Australians are supposed to be all about.
Compared to the local flick The Hard Word, Bad Eggs is now tracking 14.7% behind the Guy Pearce crime caper, an improvement
over the 22.4% lower opening it had last weekend. Although the second weekend for Bad Eggs was still lower than the $0.52 million
second frame of The Hard Word, its decline was better than Word's 37% dip. $3 million is still a possibility for Bad
Eggs.
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The top 20 films collected a soft $6.77 million over the weekend, down a slight 12.6% from last weekend. The weekend was also down 16.5%
on this weekend last year when the Hugh Grant starrer About A Boy began its successful run with a launch of $1.94 million ahead
of fellow Brit flick Bend It Like Beckham's fifth weekend as it collected $0.86 million. The weekend was down a harsher 27.3% on
this weekend from two years ago when the Brit blockbuster Bridget Jones's Diary held well in the top spot with $2.95 million in
its second, off only 25% and the Rob Schneider 'comedy' The Animal debuted in second with a good $1.97 million.
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Weekend Coming 7th - 10th August 2003
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Yet another sequel invades theatres this weekend, this time out its the third helping in the American Pie series, American
Wedding which hopes to dislodge the third Terminator entry from the top spot. As in the first two films, Jason Biggs heads the
cast, and although regulars from the first two films such as Chris Klein, Shannon Elizabeth, Tara Reid and Mena Suvari haven't returned,
favourites such as Sean William Scott, Jim's Dad Eugene Levy and band camp girl Alyson Hannigan feature in expanded capacity. As a clone
of the first, American Pie II featured similar gross out gags and character stories, and while number three is certain to do it all
over again, American Wedding has the added angle of two of its lead characters getting married, hence the excuse for another film.
Each film received a fair amount of positive general audience acceptance when they were released, driving them on to be profitable for
their studio. American Wedding is looking to be no different this time around with a decent opening in the U.S. and generally kind
reviews.
Opening just one week before the Australian launch in the U.S., American Wedding deployed with a very acceptable $US33.4 million
over the weekend for a number one entry, Universal's fourth for the year in the U.S. With an large amount of fatigue expected for a series
like this, the general public delivered an opening for the film that was up on the great $US18.7 million launch of 1999's American
Pie, but down on the fantastic $US45.1 million opening on 2001's American Pie II. The first two films went on to earn totals of
$US102.07 and $US145.1 million in the U.S. respectively, produced for relatively low costs of $US11 million, $US30 million. With the first
two returning healthy profits for its financers, the third film's elevated $US55 million budget will still allow the film to be more than
just cost positive given the great start. American Pie II's final total ended up a healthy 42% better than the first in the U.S.
after and opening that was 139.8% better. American Wedding's launch was right in the middle, 78% better than the first and 26%
lower than the second. It's final may also find middle ground between the first two.
The audience appeal for a film like American Wedding is drawn largely from its concept alone, rather than which stars are in it or
not. Its always good to see a familiar face in a sequel, and while Jason Biggs is the face of the film, people won't be rushing out just
because its a film starring Jason Biggs. Knowing an audience will associate Biggs with series, UIP has brought him out on a promotional
tour of the country. Frequenting talk shows and radio programs, awareness of the film isn't a problem, and judging by the performance of
the first two films in Australia people seeing American Wedding won't be either. In 1999, American Pie opened 26% better*
and finished a great 39.2% ahead*. American Pie II on the other hand experienced an opening weekend that was 5.3% weaker* in
Australia, and a final total that was 9.3% weaker*. The first film had amazing holding power in Australia, with its great performance made
even more impressive by that fact it went head to head with Sandler's Big Daddy, itself scoring impressive numbers and a direct
market competitor. As a third film in a series, similarities with Rise of The Machines such as the paucity of competition over the
next few weeks means it has an advantage, however, American Wedding is also coming at a time when it will miss out on any holiday
boost, something the first two films enjoyed when they were released. Still, American Wedding should be solid out of the gates this
weekend on its way to around $3.1 million.
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* Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head.
^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |
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