Weekend 31st March - 3rd April 2005
Little new product in the market led to a disappointing overall fall in attendance over the weekend. Despite the school
holidays growing around the country and a healthy range of existing product to support, audiences found other areas of
entertainment as the box office take sunk by close to 30%.
Unsurprisingly the leading contender was again the animated family flick Robots, although as a reflection of the chart, it was down 22% from its reasonable yet restrained opening from last weekend. The fall is only modest – most distributors would be thrilled with a fall of 22% after a $2.5m opening – but for Robots heading into school-holiday territory, more could have been expected given that the second most populous state begun its holiday period this last weekend. Is the dip a reflection of the word of mouth the film is receiving, or simply that it’ll take NSW and WA joining the holiday fray next weekend for the leading family film to show some gumption? That said, Qld just finished their holidays. Robots collected $1.95m through the weekend, raising its two-week total to a fine $6.20m. Still deployed on an insanely-wide 385 screens, its average of $5,073 tells us that Fox should consider ordering fewer screens for their next all-CGI feature. Through the mid-week session Robots invented a strong $1.69m from Monday to Wednesday. This puts Robots right on par with 2002’s Ice Age two-week total of $6.20m. Although Ice Age jumped 18% to $3.06m in its second weekend, it collected a mere $0.54m in its first mid-week. Its second mid-week however, was a different story, and probably where Robots begins to fall behind. Compared to the U.S. pace, Robots’ two weeks pace is now tracking a slimmer 6% behind* in Australia, taking a huge slice of the 30% smaller* opening weekend from last week. Although the second weekend frame in Australia was reflective with a 7% smaller* session than the U.S. second, the difference* is accounted from the first mid-week session, a huge 87% better* in Australia. Robots’ average business in the U.S. – average when compared to similar films – says that it’ll finished far ahead in Australia, probably more than the 16% better* margin that Ice Age enjoyed. $10 million is assured in Australia, with Robots matching the $15m of Shark Tale an outside possibility. 
The comedy sequel Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous successfully held position in second place, as the Sandra
Bullock starring flick’s arsenal of guns and feathers was too much for all but the aforementioned animated tin cans. After
a better than expected launch last weekend, the reality of a sequel that seemed to have overcome its backlash hit home,
dipping 43%. Clearly that’s not a terrible second weekend fall, but the first weekend had raised hopes of a solid life.
Collecting $1.36m through the weekend, Miss Congeniality 2 has raised its total to an ok $4.94m.
Obviously enjoying its holiday setting, Miss Congeniality 2 collected a generous $1.18m through the mid-week session thanks to its helping hand. Still, the Regina King co-starrer’s first two weekends and that healthy mid-week session only just put it past the $4.32m opening figure of 2001’s Miss Congeniality. Back then, Miss Congeniality earned $1.22m in its first mid-week, also in a holiday period. Aiming for $10m in Australia means Miss Congeniality will have to maintain its current 3.9% lead over last year’s leggy Shall We Dance. Failing to match the Richard Gere starrer’s weekend holds could be made up for by continued stronger mid-week sessions. Current trajectory indicates a final closer to the $7.78m of 2003’s Just Married. Compared to the U.S. pace, Miss Congeniality 2 is now tracking a fabulous 59% better* in Australia, which as a running cume comparison is up from the 40% lead* from the close of last weekend’s business (the film had a Wed release in the U.S.). The second weekend was 68% better* in Aus, reflective of the 70% better* opening from last weekend. Although it’s showing much stronger weekly results locally, the film dipped by 42% in U.S., horse a piece to the 43% in Australia. Mid-week wise, the first Aus session was up 97% on the U.S. Monday through Thursday session. 
The second sequel in the top five is also suffering from its fair share of sequelitis. If Roadshow had thought the going
was a little bumpy for the Bullock flick, then Universal is shaking its head for producing a sequel that audiences are
clearly not impressed with. The Ring Two was off by a hefty 54% in its second weekend, enough to keep it in third
position. Without being too harsh, the fall is a steep one. Yes, it’s a horror flick and yes it’s a sequel, but it’s
playing in a holiday period and as a follow up to one the better horror films, audiences, and the concept of a continuation
to The Ring, deserved better.
Collecting $0.93m in the frame, The Ring Two saw its total rise to $3.79m after two weeks. Mid-week wise, The Ring Two scared up $0.78m from Monday through Wednesday. After two weeks, this seats the Hideo Nakata-directed film 12.2% ahead of the Gore Verbinksi-helmed American original which had $3.38m after two weeks, off only 12%. This is down substantially from the 51% better opening weekend. Even with the holidays, The Ring Two will fall behind the original and fail to meet its $7.42m final. The positive news is that at 5.2% ahead of last year’s The Grudge, Samara at least has a chance of out-chilling the copy-cat film’s $5.81m final. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Ring Two is tracking a poor 34% behind* in Australia after two weeks. This is a small improvement on the 41% smaller* opening weekend. The second weekend frame for The Ring Two came in 31% smaller* than the U.S.’ second frame, where it was off by a much harsher 61% in its second weekend. 
The expansion of the school holidays led to some growth in various places through the charts. For the family market, Son
of The Mask was up 360% in its second weekend, although in position 14 it still made next to nothing – it’s expanding
this weekend coming. The Pacifier was where the real effect was seen, jumping 12% from its modest debut last
weekend, the Vin Diesel starring film fulfilled on expectations of growth leading into the busier holiday period.
Collecting $0.89m, The Pacifier added a healthy $0.62m through the mid-week period, including the Easter Monday
holiday, to raise its cume to $2.43m.
Although there’s been a rise this weekend, the film about a navy seal who’s sent to protect the family of a scientist whose invention has drawn the attention of the bad guys, has the potential to rise again this weekend. A surprise power upon opening in the U.S., The Pacifier also showed excellent holding power – without the aid of a school holiday period. With NSW and WA starting this weekend, BVI should see their film jump up over a $1m this coming weekend. That’d put The Pacifier on even ground with BVI’s own Princess Diaries 2 from last year, which had a similar $2.33m after two weeks and enjoyed a 17% third weekend rise. The royal sequel went on to collect a robust $7.3m in Australia. Compared to the U.S. pace, The Pacifier is now tracking 55% behind* in Australia after two weeks. This is good lift from the 70% weaker* opening from last weekend on the back of a second frame that was 51% smaller* in Australia. 
In fifth position was the Will Smith rom-com Hitch. In possibly its last weekend in the top five, the five-week
veteran collected $0.75m through the frame to up its running total to a dynamic $12.60m, further extending its lead as the
highest grossing film of 2005 so far. The first half of 2005 has yielded so few hits, it may take until May’s release of
Revenge of The Sith, or maybe Kingdom of Heaven to either see a film generate more than $15m or surpass
Hitch.
This weekend Hitch is tracking 1.7% ahead of the two week pace of last year’s Smith actioner I, Robot, up from last weekend’s 3.0% smaller measure. Against Adam Sandler’s 50 First Dates, Hitch is tracking 2.0% behind after five weekend, up faintly on the 2.4% smaller track of last weekend. Compared to the U.S. pace, Hitch is tracking 16 behind* after five weeks in Australia, again a minor progression up on last weekend’s 19% negative space. The fifth weekend was 14% lower* than the U.S.’ fifth. The top 20 films collected $8.77m over the weekend, down a disappointing 26.8% on last weekend's into to the school holidays. The weekend was down 5.1% on this weekend last year when the pack was led by the second weekend of 50 First Dates with $2.57m, while the family duo The Cat in The Hat and Scooby-Doo 2 opened in second and third with $1.57m and $1.38m respectively. The weekend was up 5.9% on this weekend from two years ago when Ned Kelly was on top in its second weekend with $1.47m, off 44%, while Bringing Down The House opened in second place with $1.34m, ahead of fellow first timers Dreamcatcher with $1.15m and What A Girl Wants with $0.99m Weekend Coming 7th - 10th April 2005 
This weekend sees at least some semi-capable films aiming for the top spot. Leading the way is the action vehicle
Sahara. Starring Matthew McConaughey, Steve Zhan and Penelope Cruz, Sahara follows the adventure of explorer
Dirk Pitt, who's out to save the world. Directed by previous TV director Breck Eisner, the film sees Pitt battle against
a corrupt African President who's polluting the world's oceans, and in the process uncovers several mysteries in true
adventurer style.
Sahara is released this weekend in the U.S., giving those in Aus a 37 hour head-start to see the film before it hits U.S. theatres. The massive $US130 production is one of Paramount’s biggest releases for 2005, and they'll be hoping that audiences are still keen on the same formula that drove National Treasure to hit status late last year. Unexpectedly high openings for modest looking film have been very frequent in the U.S. this year, while those seemingly assured of a monster launch have regularly come in under expectations. What of Sahara? Given the investment it qualifies that it'd be expected to launch big. McConaughey has anchored two films to $US100m in his career, A Time To Kill and How To Lose a Guy In 10 Days, and he's supported Jodie Foster in Contact to make it three hits for the actor. His action leads in U-571 and Reign of Fire netted a good $US77.1m and a below expected $US43m respectively. This is his the actor's riskiest film to date, and as a profitable leading man, he needs this to work. His track record in Australia has consistently mirrored his U.S. successes and disappointments. Ranging from Reign of Fire's $3.11m, A Time To Kill's $4.49m, The Wedding Planner's $4.81m, Contact's $5.42m, U-571's $5.72m and How To Lose a Guy's $11.49m, only the latter qualifies as a real hit. The similarly themed National Treasure did fair business in Australia, spending two weeks on top of the chart and collecting $6.5m in total. Depending on how Robots is effected by the holiday period, Sahara has a shot at the top spot. If it can replicate the Cage starrer's $1.89m launch is has a very good chance to do so. Sahara might launch with $1.5m this weekend. 
Guess Who? will be trying to outdo Miss Congeniality's third weekend to reign as the best comedy in release
this weekend, while top position is probably out of its running. Starring Ashton Kutcher and Bernie Mac, Guess Who?
follows a freaked out father who's not so happy that his daughter has decided to marry a white guy. Directed by Kevin
Rodney Sullivan (Barbershop 2, How Stella Got Her Groove Back), the film has been a laughing success in the
U.S. over the last two weeks.
Released just a couple of weeks ago, Guess Who? debuted with a surprising $US20.6m, outstripping a softer than expected opening by Miss Congeniality 2. The film held well in its second weekend, off by a respectable 38% to stand with $US42.5m in the bank and plenty more to come. It'll go on to pass the $US57.9m of last year's The Butterfly Effect to rank as Kutcher's best headlining role, but will probably end up short of the $US138.6m of 2003's Cheaper By The Dozen in which he had a supporting role. Kutcher is the anchor for this film's chances in Australia. The less said about Bernie Mac the better. His last film Mr. 3000 was a no-show at theatres in Australia and he left audiences less than impressed after he replaced Bill Murray in the Charlie's Angels sequel. Kutcher's last flick The Butterfly Effect spent two weeks on top in Australia, collecting $4.91m all up and earning himself some cred as a serious actor. He has scored even better in the past though with his comedies, Dude Where's My Car made $6.25m and Just Married did very well with $7.78m, proving consistent as a draw in comedy. There's a chance that Guess Who? won't connect with audiences in Australia, although Fox's high screen count says they have hopes it will. Guess Who? is a chance for $1.3m this weekend. * Based on a US index of 10/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. ^ Based on a UK index of 2.1/1 with currency, ticket prices, population and cinema visits per head. |